ID A H O A LA S K A H IN G TO N Review of Business Conditions UTAH A R IZ O N A C A LIFO R N IA NEVADA
Review of Business Conditions T h e mild pessimism which accom panied the release of June data on business indicators was som ew hat dissipated by the generally better perform ance of the econom y in July. A lthough the July developm ents were view ed by m any analysts as prim arily sustaining in character rather than as an indication of renewed buoyance in the econom y, the record fo r A ugust is probably less favorable than had generally been expected. Several of the m ajor business indicators which h ad risen in J u ly w ere little c h an g ed in August. Industrial production was unchanged in A ugust at 119 percent of the 1957 average; it had been rising gradually since January except for a leveling off in June w hen autom o bile output was curtailed by a labor dispute. A n increase in output of business equipm ent in August was offset by a decline in consum er goods, including autom obiles, while p ro d u c tion of m aterials was m aintained. T he value o f new co n stru ctio n activity, seasonally adjusted, also rem ained unchanged in A ugust and was slightly below the record level of June. Residential construction declined for the second consecutive m onth, while public construction and som e types of business building increased. H ousing starts in A ugust, however, rose 5 percent above the revised seasonally adjusted rate for July. The revision of the latter figure resulted in gains being registered from the prior m onth in both July and August. A pplications for F H A m ortgage insurance on new houses, an indicator of fu tu re hom ebuilding activity, declined 1 0 p e r cen t in A ugust to the low est seasonally adjusted level since July 1957. Requests for appraisals by the V eterans A dm inistration also declined in A ugust, whereas in most years there has been an increase from July to A u gust in the actual num ber of applications. N o n farm p ayroll em ploym ent declined slightly in A ugust on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the reduction being concentrated prim arily in m anufacturing. W hile to ta l u n em ploym ent was sm aller in A ugust than in July, the drop was m uch less than seasonal, and consequently the seasonally adjusted rate of unem ploym ent rose sharply to 5.8 percent of the civilian labor force from 5.3 percent in m id-july. A m arked expansion in the labor force contributed to this overall result. The survey w eek fo r collecting d a ta cam e com paratively late in the m onth, and this led to the inclusion both in the labor force and in the num ber of unem ployed a larger than usual num ber of prospective teachers waiting the start of the new school term. 1 In addition, the survey week coincided with a heavy rate of layoffs in the autom obile industry owing to m odel changeovers. W ith fewer people at w ork in factories and a further decline in average weekly hours, factory payrolls fell in A ugust. This drop served to hold down the seasonally adjusted increase in personal incom e to the smallest am ount since last January, w hen both personal income and factory payrolls declined som ewhat. Prelim inary estim ates indicate that total retail sales declined slightly in A ugust follow ing a 3 percent rise in July. A decline in sales of new autom obiles was largely responsible for some falling off in seasonally adjusted sales of durable goods, while sales of nondurables increased at m ost types of outlets. Sales of departm ent stores, however, declined slightly to 114 percent of the 1957-59 average from 115 percent in July. Following the break in the stock m arket in late M ay, there has been considerable speculation as to w hat effect the decline in stock prices would have upon the spending plans of consum ers and of businessm en. The most recent q u arterly survey of co n su m er buying 1 Persons waiting for a new job to start within 30 days are considered to be in the same situation as those on a temporary layoff and are included in the unemployment count.
September 1962 MONTHLY REVIEW intentions, w hich is conducted by the B ureau of th e C ensus fo r the B oard o f G overnors of the F e d e ra l R eserve System, indicated th a t in Ju ly th e overall buying plans of consum ers w ere little changed from A pril, although there w ere som e variations am ong p a rtic u la r cate gories o f goods. Sim ilarly, the A ugust survey of anticipated p la n t an d equipm ent expendi tures, conducted by the D ep artm en t of C om m erce and the Securities an d E xchange C om m ission, indicated the sam e to tal expenditures in 1962 as revealed by th e survey in M ay. T hese surveys seem to indicate th a t no m eas urab le deterioration in th e spending expecta tions o f consum ers and o f businessm en has occu rred as a consequence o f the stock m ar k et break. A t the sam e tim e, how ever, c u r re n t expectations do n o t point to a n im m inent strong upsurge in consum er o r business spend ing w hich w ould provide a m a jo r stim ulus to o verall business activity. Pacific Coast employment rose, unemployment diminished in August T o tal civilian em ploym ent on the Pacific C oast rose in July and A ugust on a seasonally adjusted basis after a sm all decline in June, w ith b o th farm an d n onfarm em ploym ent gaining in each of the tw o m onths. T h e sea sonally adjusted rate of unem ploym ent, w hich had risen in M ay and Ju n e largely as a conse quence o f the lab o r disp u te in the construc tio n industry in n o rth e rn C alifornia, declined in July and again in A ugust, reaching a level of 5.7 p ercen t in the la tte r m onth. T he n u m b er o f wage and salary w orkers a t n o n farm establishm ents o n the Pacific C o ast increased 0.3 percent from July to A u gust o n a seasonally adjusted basis. G ains occu red in all m ajor categories o f activity ex cep t trade and services, in w hich em ploym ent was unchanged. C o n tra ct construction activ ity h ad the largest relative increase, 2. 8 p e r cent, reflecting the settlem ent o f the la b o r dis p u te involving iro n w orkers in the Pacific Construction jobs in August up to prestrike level in Pacific Coast States T h a u i o n d i of P a r t o n t Source: State departments of employment. N orthw est as w ell as continued expansion in n o rth ern C alifornia follow ing th e earlier set tlem ent o f the p ro trac te d la b o r dispute there. District employment up in July; insured unemployment down A fter seasonal adjustm ent, n o n farm wage and salary em ploym ent in the T w elfth D is trict (excluding A lask a and H aw aii) rose by alm ost 1 p ercen t in July, w ith th e greatest gain o ccurring in co n tract construction. A fter the settlem ent of th e la b o r dispute in n o rth ern C alifornia in late June, the m id-july level of co nstruction em ploym ent was 4 3 1,0 0 0 w ork ers, a gain o f alm ost 9 percent. E ven after this im provem ent, em ploym ent in co n stru c tio n was still 1 p ercen t low er th a n th e p re strike level prevailing in the first fo u r m onths of 1962 because of th e disputes still affecting in d u stry em ploym ent in th e Pacific N o rth w est and N evada. A ll o th er in d u stry divisions except govern m en t show ed m o d erate increases m anufac tu rin g an d finance rose 0.7 p ercen t each, and trad e an d services gained 0. 6 p ercen t each. G overnm ent em ploym ent was off slightly; ap p aren tly there w ere g reater th a n seasonal lay offs this y ear in the ed u catio n sector. 17 5
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO Pacific Coast Manufacturing employment has been getting a boost from defense activity Pire«M Aircraft, electrical equipment, and ordnance (in California). 2 Labor dispute affecting metalworking industries. 1 Seasonally adjusted. N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. Seasonal patterns are relatively insignificant. 6 February 1961 was the trough month in the 1960-61 recession, as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: State departments of employment. In the D istrict including A laska and H a waii, average weekly insured unem ploym ent fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 310,700 workers in July, a decrease of 4.7 percent from June and alm ost 17 percent from July 1961. W ith this reduction in the num ber of unem ployed, the rate of insured unem ployment dropped from 5.7 percent in June to 5.5 percent in July; however, the June and July rates were the highest since O ctober 1961. In the first seven m onths of 1962, D istrict insured unem ploym ent declined by 18.5 percent from the com parable period of 1961, in contrast to a drop of 28 percent in the nation. A verage weekly initial claim s fo r u n em ploym ent benefits fell in July to 44,500, dow n 6.7 percent from June and down 22 percent below the recent high of 57,000 in May. Fewer District labor market areas have substantial unemployment 176 W ith the reclassification of Spokane, W ashington to an area of m oderate unem ploym ent in July, there were only three m ajor labor m arket areas in the D istrict rem aining as areas of substantial unem ploym ent ( 6. 0 to 8.9 percent rate of unem ploym ent). U nem ploym ent in the three areas Fresno, San D i ego, and Stockton represented approxim ately 13.3 percent of total unem ploym ent in the State of California in July 1962, as com pared with 10.7 percent in July 1961 and 10.4 p ercent in July 1960. O f the three labor m arket areas, only Stockton has had an increase in total em ploym ent from July 1961 to July 1962; however, the over-the-year decline in the num ber of unem ployed in this area was not as impressive as in Fresno, w here the rate of unem ploym ent fell from 9.4 percent in July 1961 to 7.4 percent this July despite a slight decline in to tal em ploym ent. In contrast to the im provem ent in the em ploym ent picture in Fresno and Stockton, the situation in San Diego appears to have worsened; total em ploym ent declined by 4,600 w orkers from July 1961, and unem ploym ent rose by 4,200 workers over the year-ago figure and was 6,500 greater than in July 1960, A ircraft and missile em ploym ent at San Diego plants fell by 13,300 workers, a decline of 25 percent below the level of July 1961; this was the m a jor elem ent in the total em ploym ent reduction in this area. Construction contracts rose in July The value of construction contracts aw arded in Twelfth D istrict states (less A laska and H aw aii) reached $734 million in July, a 3 p ercent gain from the Ju n e level and an increase of 17 percent above contract awards in July 1961. A fter seasonal adjustm ent, July awards showed a substantial gain over June, as they often fall off sharply in July. R esidential co n tract aw ards show ed the largest relative gain above June (5.5 p ercen t), and the num ber of dwelling units represented also rose by about the same percentage. N onresi- dential aw ards increased 3.2 p ercen t in July,
September 1962 MONTHLY REVIEW while public works and utilities construction fell 4 percent. D uring the first seven months of this year, the value of residential contract awards was 2 2 percent above that in the com parable period of 1961, nonresidential awards were nearly 5 percent larger, but public works and utilities fell 1 2 percent below a year ago. F o r the second quarter of 1962, the B u reau of the Census reported that the vacancy rate for rental housing units in the W est (including M ontana, W yoming, C olorado, and N ew M exico in addition to T w elfth D istrict states) stood at 10.3 percent, an increase over the first quarter rate but som ewhat under that of the A pril-june period of 1961. V acancies in homes available only for sale were, at 1.7 percent, also above first-quarter levels, as well as above the rate for the second quarter of last year. Growth in savings and loan shares slowed down in July The dollar increase in savings capital at D istrict savings and loan associations in July was som ew hat below the average in the p re ceding six m onths and well under the June gain. (W ithdraw als of savings following the June dividend are often m ade in July.) H ow ever, this contrasts with an actual decline in savings held by savings and loan associations in the nation in the same m onth, which had not occurred since 1957. F o r the first seven m onths of this year, the growth in savings cap ital of D istrict associations was 23 p ercent larger than in the com parable period of 1961. M ortgage lending activity also slowed down in July; com m itm ents to lend continued to rise, how ever. The average net price paid in the W est for FH A -insured 5lA percent, 25-year new-home m ortgages rose from the July 1 estim ate of $97.0 to $97.1 as of August 1. This price has been increasing steadily since last Decem ber, w hen it stood at $96.1. T he F ed eral H om e Loan B ank Board, in its m onthly survey of interest rates on conventional m ortgages for August, indicated that the average rate charged by rep o rtin g savings and loan associations fell from 6.06 percent in July to 5.97 percent in August; the A ugust figure is also 5 basis points below rates charged in the same m onth of 1961. The decline from July to A u gust in rates for loans on newly built homes was largely offset by an increase in fees and other charges; however, these charges are 29 basis points under their level for August 1961. (A lthough this survey does not distinguish rates by area, it is reported as considerably influenced by large associations in the Twelfth D istrict.) Secondary m arket activities of the D istrict office of the Federal N ational M ortgage Association resulted in a small decline in mortgage holdings in July; holdings were reduced in the preceding two m onths as well, but on a larger scale. Lumber orders rebounded in August but remained below June levels Production, orders, and shipm ents of Douglas fir in July declined approxim ately 14, 16, and 18 percent, respectively, from June but all were above their year-ago levels. The July decline in orders was ab o u t equal to the d e cline a year ago, but the drop in production this year was m uch m ilder than in 1961. A t the end of July 1961, unfilled orders were equal to 46 p ercen t of inventories on hand. O rders and shipm ents in July this y ear e x ceeded production so that unfilled orders rose slightly and inventories were reduced by 4 percent, raising the ratio of unfilled orders to inventory from about 52 to 54 percent. Prelim inary weekly data indicate that A u gust production, orders, and shipm ents were at about the same levels as during the last two weeks in July after the rebound from the July 4 holiday but were still below June levels. During the first two weeks in A ugust, production substantially exceeded new orders, bu t 1 7 7
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO in the last two weeks of the m onth orders outpaced production. In July both production and new orders fo r pine fell off about 3 p ercent, while shipm ents dropped a little over 4 percent. Unfilled orders rose and stocks declined slightly as shipm ents ran ahead of production. Unfilled orders in July were about 22 percent above July 1961 while inventories were alm ost 17 percent below their July 1961 levels. P roduction of C alifornia redwood in July declined about 17 percent from June, while new orders received fell about 2 0 percent and shipm ents about 24 percent. A lthough the output decline about m atched the year-ago drop, the decline in new orders was about twice as large as in July 1961. However, new orders ran ahead of production. O n a cum u lative basis through July, production, new o r ders received, an d shipm ents all were substantially below their levels for the first seven m onths of 1961. Crow s average lum ber price per thousand board feet declined $1.19 from the week ended A ugust 2 to the week ended A ugust 30. G reen fir and pine species recorded declines of $1.84 and $1.08, respectively, while dry fir rem ained unchanged. A t the end of A u gust, however, the industry average was up $2.79, or 3.8 percent, from its year-ago level. Western and national steel production advanced in August R ecovering further from year-low levels in July, W estern and national steel production rose 3.4 and 5.9 percent, respectively, from the week ended A ugust 4 to the week ended Septem ber 1. The national output of 1,672,- 0 0 0 tons in the latter week was the highest since early M ay and brought the unofficial operating rate to 55.5 percent of estim ated capacity. The weekly output level of,000 tons produced in the W estern states1 in the w eek en d ed Septem ber 1 was the highest 1 The Western states included are Arizona, Utah, Washington, Oregon, and California. since m id-june. Overall recovery in national steel output from the end of the holiday week on July 7 to the beginning of Septem ber was m uch stronger than the recovery in the W estern states, 35 percent com pared with 17 percent. For the entire m onth of A ugust, national steel production not only exceeded the July lev el b u t e q u a lle d the Ju n e o u tp u t level; W estern output, on the other hand, was below its Ju n e level. O utside the District, production and shipm ents are expected to be only slightly higher in Septem ber th a n A ugust, since excess in ventories are causing p u rch ases by au to m o bile producers to lag behind their usual pace in a period of autom obile m odel changeover. In the D istrict the dem and for construction steel and canm aking tinplate should begin easing in Septem ber in response to seasonal influences. August copper orders and shipments higher than in July but below year-ago levels C opper producers and sm elters have reported that orders for Septem ber shipm ent are slightly better than A ugust but th at A u gust and Septem ber shipm ents are below both year-ago levels an d average m onthly shipm ents by producers in the first half of 1962. U nited States stocks of refined copper rose sharply from 69,838 tons in June to 100,517 tons in July as shipm ents during the latter m onths declined from the preceding m onth by about 24 percent while July production fell only about 5.5 percent from June. The slow pace of orders from copper fabricators, which include brass mills, wire mills and foundries, not only reflects the fact that these buyers realize producers hold large stocks of refined copper available for quick delivery, but also that their own stocks of copp er are relatively high. T hese c o p p er custom ers continue to w ork off large inventories bought in the first half of this year as a hedge
September 1962 MONTHLY REVIEW against possible co p p er strikes. A low level of inventories currently held by the custo m ers of the brass and w ire mills, fo r exam ple, the autom obile, construction, and electrical equipm ent industries, public utilities and d e fense contractors, offers one encouraging fac to r for fu tu re orders. Follow ing estim ates by c o p p er producers th at A ugust and Septem ber business w ould decline sharply from last y ear and the early m onths of this year, m ajo r producers an nounced curtailm ents in outp u t. T hese c u t backs in m ine p ro d u ctio n are not expected to affect o u tp u t of refined co p p er until about O ctober since approxim ately 90 days are re qu ired from the tim e copper ore is m ined to the tim e it is concentrated, sm elted, and re fined. Department store sales at high level in July and August D istrict d epartm ent store sales during July were 7 percent higher th a n a y e ar ago. H ow ever, after adjustm ent fo r seasonal variation, they w ere unchanged from the record level attain ed in Ju n e o f this year. Prelim inary figures indicate th a t the seasonally adjusted index for the Twelfth D istrict rose slightly in A ugust, w hich co ntrasts w ith the m inor de cline in the national index. Car sales in California fell off in July and August D aily average new autom obile registrations in C alifornia w ere 2,153 during July, 11 p er cent below the Ju n e level; how ever, auto sales usually decline from June to July. A lm ost the entire decline occurred in the last w eek of July w hen the daily average was the low est it has been since the first w eek o f F ebruary. R egistrations during July were the highest they have been during th a t m onth since 1955. D uring the first 20 selling days of A ugust, the daily sales rate dro p p ed 16 percent below the July level. Plentiful supply of canned fruits and vegetables T w elfth D istrict canners are expected to pack ab o u t 150 m illion cases of fruits and vegetables in 1962. W ith the large inventory on h an d at the beginning o f the canning year, a n ear-reco rd supply of canned pro d u cts is in p ro sp ect fo r the 1962 m arketing season. D istrict canners started the season w ith a rec o rd high inventory of canned fruits. O n Ju n e 1, can n ers stocks totaled m ore th an 13 million cases. W ith large supplies of raw m aterial in prospect, despite th e trad itio n al green d ro p of cling peaches in C alifornia, canners price quotations fo r th eir fru it products are gener ally low er th a n a y ear earlier. T he opening price for freestone peaches is rep o rted to be the low est th a t canners have ever quoted on this item. P rices fo r apricots are an exception to the general dow nw ard adjustm ent in can n ers prices. A sm all cro p o f apricots boosted the co n tract price to C alifornia p roducers from $80 a t o n i n 1961 to $135 a t o n i n 1962. A s a result of this increased cost of raw m ate rial to canners, the price of th e canned p ro d uct w as raised som ew hat less th an 1 0 percent. In co n trast w ith the rep o rted dow nw ard m ovem ent in prices for canned tom ato products nationally, the opening price q u o ta tions by D istrict canners w ere about the sam e as a y ear earlier. H ow ever, the pro d u ctio n of tom atoes for processing m ay be larg er in the D istrict th an an ticip ated because o f recent im provem ents in yields. If increased supplies are realized, som e w eakening in canned to m ato prices m ay occur. Near-record output of crops in prospect D espite the rem oval of ab o u t 2 m illion acres of D istrict farm lan d fro m crop p ro d u c tion u n d er F ed eral em ergency farm p ro gram s, the p ro d u ctio n of crops in 1962 m ay exceed the crop o u tp u t in the preceding year 179
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO CHANGES EN SELECTED BALANCE SHEET ITEMS OF WEEKLY REPORTBNG MEMBER BAKK3 IN LEADSWG CITIES (dollar amounts in m illions) ASSETS: Total fo am and investmenfs Loans adjusted and investments 1 Loans ad justed1 Commercial and industrial loans Real estate loans A gricu ltura l loans Loans to nonbank financial institutions Loans for purchasing and carrying securities Loans to foreign banks Other loans Loans to domestic com m ercial banks U. S. Governm ent securities Other securities LIA B ILITIES : Demand deposits adjusted Tim e deposits Savings accounts Twelfth District From J u ly 11, 1962 From A u g u st 30, 1961 to A u g u st 29, 1962 to A u g u st 29, 1962 D o lla rs P e rc e n t D o llars P ercen t I I 0.04 161 + <78 + 54 + 62 0.60 + 1.04 + 0.93 + 2.10 7.02 + 28 + 3.18 2 0 + 37 + 150 296 43 0.83 0 + 1.05 + 64.94 4.54 1.42 194 1.66 + 50 + 0.34 + 1 + 1.67 United States From J u ly 11, 1962 From A u g u st 30, 1961 to A u g u st 29, 1962 to A u g u s t 29, 1962 D o lla rs P e rc e n t D o lla rs P ercen t + 171 + 0.14 + 8,3 2 6 + 7.19 + 609 1,162 + 288 880 + 114 + 544 0.36 + 0.58 + 0.49 + 2.06 11.13 + 2.50 + 0.08 3.38 + 0.03 + 42.65 3.61 + 1.96 1.43 + 0.24 + 1.66 + 7,767 + 6,424 + 1,966 + 1,641 + 118 + 1,060 11 + 179 + 1,630 + 559 2,389 + 3,732 1,217 + 6,709 + 4,374 + 6.80 + 9.24 + 6.25 + 12.57 + 10.61 + 21.02 0.31 + 31.68 + 10.03 + 37.82 7.14 + 33.07 1.97 + 16.50 + 15.07 Exclusive of loans to domestic commercial banks and after deductions of valuation reserves; individual loan items are shown gross. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. and approach the record level of crop production in 1959. A ccording to August 1 production estim ates, favorable growing conditions for m ajor crops are expected to boost yields substantially from their 1961 levels. The most pronounced increase is anticipated for the w heat crop in W ashington where yields are forecast to rise by m ore than one-third. Yields of tom atoes for processing are also expected to rise sharply in C alifornia; they may be even higher than indicated by the A ugust 1 report if yields from early pickings are m aintained. Farm loans remain high Production loans outstanding to D istrict farm ers from lending institutions rem ain above a year ago despite the high level of cash income. The increase in loans stems in p art from the expansion in the D istrict of cattle feeding, which relies heavily on the use of credit, and from the inability o f som e fa rm ers, particularly producers of spring potatoes, to liquidate com pletely loans carried over from the extrem ely poor 1961 season. Loans of District banks increased from mid-july through August as security holdings and deposits declined D uring the m id-sum m er period from July 11 to August 8, Twelfth D istrict banks were under some reserve pressure as the level of total deposits declined. R eflecting this som e what tighter position, D istrict banks were net purchasers of Federal funds in rather substan
September 1962 MONTHLY REVIEW tial am ounts. Then, as deposits were gained back in the last half of August, the pressure on reserves was eased and District banks becam e net sellers of Federal funds. W eekly reporting m em ber banks in the District experienced the usual sum m er slackness in business borrow ing from m id-july to mid- A ugust, which was followed by an increase in loan dem and during the last half of August. In the la tte r period, the increase in com m ercial and industrial loans was fairly widely distributed am ong the various categories of business borrow ers. N ondurable goods m anufacturers registered the largest gains, mainly due to seasonal borrowings by food, liquor and tobacco firms. In the durable goods sector there were gains in loans to prim ary m etal, tra n s portation equipm ent, and other durable goods m anufacturers. Com m odity dealers increased their borrow ing seasonally, and transportation, com m unication and public utilities firms also increased th eir b an k debt. Banks continued to seek real estate loans actively from m id-july through A ugust and added about $ million to their mortgage portfolios. L oans to n o n b an k financial institutions also rose as sales and personal finance com panies increased their borrowings. The other loans category showed a gain as consum ers continued to increase their bank debt. The only sizable decrease during this period was in agricultural loans, and it was due to a reduction in bank holdings of Com modity Credit C orporation guaranteed loans. Changes from m id-july through August in the holdings of U nited States G overnm ent securities of D istrict weekly reporting banks were largely due to the new Treasury issues acquired on A ugust 15. Certificate holdings rose $135 million as of th at date, and bonds in the over-5-year range increased $138 m illion. A decline of $228 in T reasury bills more than offset the acquisition of new certificates. T here was also a decline of over $500 million in bonds in the 1-5-year m aturity range as the 2Vz percent bonds of A ugust 15, 1963 dropped into the under-l-y ear category in m id-august. Weekly reporting banks had w eekly decreases in their portfolios of securities o th er th an U nited States G overnm ents throughout A ugust, a reversal of the upward trend prevailing through July of this year. A s previously m entioned, b anks lost deposits in the first part of the period under review as a decline in dem and deposits adjusted was accom panied by lower U nited States Governm ent deposits, and as withdrawals of tim e deposits by States and political subdivisions practically offset the gain in savings deposits. In the la tte r h alf of A ugust, how ever, U nited States G overnm ent deposits in creased as a result of paym ents received for the new Treasury issues on A ugust 15. During this perio d the increase in savings was sufficient to m ore than offset continued w ithdraw als in other time deposit categories. Growth in time deposits at District banks slowed down in July and August Billions of Dollars I960 1961 1962 Note: Data are for Twelfth District weekly reporting member banks. Time deposit data from February 1961 through September 1961 have been adjusted to exclude loan funds of a national retailer temporarily held as time certificates of deposit. Demand deposits adjusted are total demand deposits other than domestic commercial interbank and United States Government, less cash items in process of collection.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO T a b l e 1 CHANGES IN REAL ESTATE LOANS OF TWELFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS (d o lla r am ounts in th ousa n ds) M arch 2G, 1962 D ecem b er 2 9,1 9 6 1 to to June 30, 1962 M arch 26, 1962 Dollars Percent D ollars Percent Total real estate loans 310,827 4.88 81,654 1.30 Secured by farm lands 17,054 9.67 12,137 7.39 Secured by residential properties 210,655 4.28 13,288.27 Insured by FHA 53,524 2.21 2,593.11 Insured by VA 14,683 3.00 21,547 4.22 Not insured by either 171,814 8.52 10,852.54 Secured by other properties 83,118 6.55 82,805 6.98 Sizable growth in District member bank credit during second quarter The d ata now available for all D istrict m em ber banks as of the Call R eport date of June 30, 1962 indicate that total bank credit outstanding increased $902 million during the second quarter, nearly three tim es larger than the growth in the com parable period of 1961. Loans accounted for over tw o-thirds of the gain, whereas they declined in the second quarter of last year. D istrict banks continued to invest in higher yielding obligations o f states and political subdivisions b u t red uced th eir holdings o f U nited States G overnm ent securities by $19 million. There was a second q u arter gain of $1,563 million in total deposits. D em and deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions b o th registered increases during the second quarter. Tw o- thirds of the $695 million increase in time deposits was in the savings deposit com ponent. The dollar increase in savings deposits was slightly above th at of the second quarter of 1961 and well above th at of the first quarter o f this year. Residential mortgages boosted second quarter loan volume D istrict banks had shown renew ed interest in relatively high yielding real estate loans 182 during the first quarter of 1962 as a means of offsetting increased interest costs on time deposits; in the second q u a rte r they c h an neled increased am ounts of funds into such loans. N early one-half o f th e to tal lo an increase for the quarter was accounted for by real estate loans. A s Table 1 indicates, the increase in real estate loans of D istrict m em ber banks was m ore than 3 V2 tim es greater than in the first quarter of the year and was equivalent to nearly 75 percent of the dollar increase in savings deposits d u ring the q u arter. T he largest d o llar increase was in residential m ortgages, conventional and F H A - insured. T his was a reversal o f th e experience in the first quarter when m ost of the dollar gain was in nonresidential m ortgages; this latter type of m ortgage showed further sizable gains in the second q u arter, how ever. Business loans also rose Business loans rose $215 m illion in the second quarter in contrast to only a nom inal increase in the corresponding period of 1961 and a decline of $ 105 million in the first quarter of this year, a period w hen seasonal repaym ents are usually in excess o f new b u siness borrow ings. T h e increase of $218 m illion in consum er loans in the second quarter was four times that of the first quarter, with passenger autom obile in stalm en t loans ac
September 1962 MONTHLY REVIEW counting for half the e gain in consumer bor o rowing. Loans to farmers registered a larger than seasonal gain during the second quarter and continued well above the year-ago level. The increase in loans to nonbank financial institutions, which was particularly heavy around mid-year, m was nearly twice that of the second quarter of 1961. 183
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO BANKING AND CREDIT STATISTICS AND BU SIN ESS IND EX ES TWELFTH DISTRICT ( I n d e x e s : 1 9 4 7-1 9 4 9 = 1 0 0, e x c e p t where o t h e r w is e in d ic a te d. D o lla r a m o u n t s in m illio n s o f d o lla r s ) Condititn items of all member banks2 7 Bank rates Bank debits index 31 cities 6 Demand deposits adjusted* Total time deposits 495 720 1,450 6,619 6,639 7,942 7,239 6,452 6,619 8,003 6,673 6,961 8,278 1,234 951 1,983 10,520 10,515 11,196 11,864 12,169 11,870 12,729 13,375 13,060 14,163 1,790 1,609 2,267 7,502 7.997 8,699 9,120 9,424 10,679 12,077 12,452 13,034 15,116 42 18 30 140 150 153 173 190 204 209 237 253 270 17,779 18.028 17,901 18,212 18,499 7.863 7,955 8,190 8,182 8,278 13,212 13,317 13,901 13,944 14,163 14,656 14,786 14,867 14,874 15,116 262 277 291 265 293 18,646 18,622 18,906 19,070 19,328 19,625 19,669 20,017 8,082 7,820 7,776 7,811 7,582 7,689 7,532 7,309 13,671 13,163 13,235 13,706 13,945 13,101 13,535 13,255 15,448 15,647 15,939 16,091 16,352 16,511 16.587 16,655 294 289 300 311 304 315 315 300 Year and Month Loans and discounts 19 1933 1939 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 2,239 1,486 1,967 8,839 9,220 9, 11,124 12,613 13,178 13,812 16,537 17,139 18,499 1961 A u g u st S e p te m b e r O cto b er N ovem ber D e cem b er 1962 J a n u a ry F e b ru a ry M a rc h A p ril M ay J line J u ly A u g u st U.S. Gov't securities Total nonagri cultural employ ment 11 short-term business loans8* 7 19 1933 1939 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 J a n u a ry F e b ru a ry M a rc h A pril M ay J une Ju ly Refined 7, 1 84 86 85 90 95 98 98 104 108 82 86 84 90 96 101 96 102... 10S 108 104 105 105 93 95 100 '.02 101 118 115 118 120 126 125 126 127 126 p 104 101 99 100 119 120 118 121 523 124 127 5.45 5^42 111 111 111 111 112 112p 5]50 5.52 18 11 19 73 74 74 82 91 93 98 115 64 42 47 115 112 114 118 125 127 129 Waterborne Foreign Trade Index7* 8 10 Exports Cement Retail food prices Steel7 Copper1 Electric power Total Dry Canjo Imports Tanker Total Dry Cargo 7 '97 Tanker 95 40 71 115 116 115 122 120 116 87 52 67 105 101 94 91 78 50 63 112 116 122 119 124 129 132 124 130 134 140 55 27 56 124 131 133 145 156 149 158 174 161 169 17 80 116 115 120 131 130 116 99 129 136 29 26 40 136 145 162 172 1 209 224 229 252 271 190 163 186 17k 14 1 133 166 201 231 176 188 211 150 247 2i 146 139 158 154 163 172 142 138 154 171 io7 194 201 138 141 178 261 308 212 223 305 243 175 130 145 149 117 138 149 124 72 95 162 204 314 268 314 459 582 56 4 686 808 140 141 163 166 187 201 216 221 263 26!) 57 733 1,836 4,2 3 9 2,912 3,614 7,180 10. 9,504 11,699 1 4,209 111 111 91 91 143 140 142 144 144 141 157 160 163 171 182 152 183 ISO 174 LSI 167 124 138 149 147 145 293 300 295 310 305 294 271 247 217 209 256 273 365 322 317 310 331 371 138 140 76 67 118 134 1,026 805 841 872 756 725 297 277 277 307 261 272 20,025 14,586 15.542 15,613 13,573 12,529 114 112 90 90 91 91 139 142 137 135 139 141 147 165 153 175 1 181 160 176 IS t 187 176 151 161 149 142 159 150 100 156p 310 295 300 245 272 203 212 266 325 353 306 300 360 130 157 166 86 133 762 572 734 856 839 259 219 299 2 73 322 13,870 8,993 12.085 16,029 14,295 1961 J u ly A ugust S e p te m b e r O cto b er N o v e m b er D e ce m b er Crude Dep t store sales (value)5* 11 3.95 4.14 4.09 4.10 4.50 4.97 4.88 5.33 5,62 5.46 Petroleum7 Lumber Car ioadings (number)5* 11 59 87 108 108 112 112 96 101 95 94 Industrial production (physical volume)5 Year and month Total mf g employ ment u.. 1 A d ju ste d fo r se a so n al v a ria tio n, e x c e p t w here in d ic a te d. E x c e p t for b an k in g a n d credit, a n d d e p a r tm e n t sto re s ta tis tic s, all indexes a re based u p o n d a ta from o u tsid e sources, a s follow s: lu m b e r, N a tio n a l L um ber M a n u fa c tu re rs A sso ciatio n, W est C o a st L u m b e rm a n s A sso ciatio n, a n d W e s te rn P in e A ssociation; p e tro le u m, cem en t, a n d c opper, U.S. B u re a u of M ines; steel, U.S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m erce a n d A m erican Iro n a n d S te e l I n s t i tu t e ; e le ctric po w er. F e d e ra l P o 'v er C om m ission; n o n a g ric u ltu ra l a n d m a n u fa c tu rin g e m p lo y m e n t, U.S. B u re a u of L ab o r S ta tis tic s a n d c o o p e ra tin g s ta te agencies; re ta il food prices, U.S. B u re a u of L ab o r S ta tis tic s ; carioadings, v a rio u s ra ilro a d s a n d ra ilro a d asso c iatio n s; a n d fo reig n tra d e, U.S. D e p a r tm e n t of C o m m erce. 2 A n n u al figures a re as of e n d of y e a r, m o n th ly figures as of la st W ed n e sd a y in m o n th. 3 D e m a n d d e p o sits, e x clu d in g in te rb a n k a n d U.S. G o v e rn m e n t d e p o sits, less cash ite m s in process of collection. M o n th ly d a ta p a r tly e s tim a te d. i D e b its to to ta l d e p o sits ex c e p t in te rb a n k p rio r to 1942. D e b its to d e m a n d d e p o sits ex cep t U.S. G o v e rn m e n t a n d in te rb a n k d e p o sits from 1942. * D a ily a v e ra g e. 6 A verage ra te s on loans m a d e in five m a jo r cities, w eig h ted b y lo an size categ o ry. 7 N o t a d ju s te d for seasonal v a ria tio n. a Los A n g eles, S a n F ra n c isco, a n d S e a ttle indexes com bined. s C om m ercial cargo only, in ph y sical volum e, for th e P a c id c C o a st c u sto m s d is tr ic ts p lu s A la sk a a n d H a w a ii; s ta r tin g w ith Ju ly 1950, special c a te g o ry e x p o rts a re excluded because of s e c u rity reasons. 10 A laska a n d H a w a ii a re in clu d e d in indexes b eg in n in g in 1950. u In d e x : 1957-1939= 100. p P re lim in a ry. r R evised. 184