Uruguay Economic Outlook Recovery under way November
Click here to modify the style of the master title Contents 01 02 GLOBAL: The positive global environment is consolidating, with downward risks URUGUAY: Recovery under way, but imbalances persist
01 GLOBAL: The positive global environment is consolidating, with downward risks
2T10 4T10 2T11 4T11 2T12 4T12 2T13 4T13 2T14 4T14 2T15 4T15 2T16 4T16 2T17 Recovery: regions more in step than before Index of synchronisation of growth between developed and emerging economies (DE & EE) 70 60 50 40 30 20 Stable growth in EE/slowdown in DE Acceleration of growth in DE/moderation in EE Acceleration of growth in DE and EE Developed economies: Strong uptick in the US Positive surprise in Europe Emerging economies: Slight slowdown in China, although less than expected. China continues to underpin the rest of Asia Recovery in Russia and Brazil, which are no longer holding back world growth. 10 0 Growth is gaining traction in Latin America Greater support for growth from economic policies The synchronisation index is the result of inverting the standard deviation of quarterly growth observed in the different countries. The index therefore associates less growth volatility among countries with a higher degree of synchronisation worldwide. Source: National sources, Markit Economics and BBVA Research 4
Upward revision of growth in Europe and China Positive bias in South America USA EURO ZONE 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 CHINA MEXICO 2.2 2.0 6.7 6.0 SOUTH AMERICA WORLD 0.6 1.5 3.4 3.4 Up Unchanged Down Source: BBVA Research 5
Central banks are moving towards a very gradual normalisation process FED Balance sheet normalisation from October and next rate hike in December, with two more in Scaling back of bond purchasing in, but no rate hikes are expected until mid 2019 ECB Great uncertainty: In the United States due to slowing inflation and the expected changes in the FOMC in In the euro zone, bias towards more gradual tapering (euro strength) and a delay to the rate hike cycle (low inflation) 6
US: sustained growth despite political uncertainty and natural disasters, while China improves in the short term USA: GDP growth (YoY, %) China: GDP growth (YoY, %) 3,5 8,0 3,0 2,9 7,5 7,3 2,5 2,6 7,0 6,9 6,7 6,7 2,0 1,5 1,5 2,1 2,2 6,5 6,0 6,0 5,5 1,0 5,0 0,5 4,5 0,0 2014 2015 2016 Actual Anterior 4,0 2014 2015 2016 Actual Anterior We are maintaining our growth forecasts for -, since the hurricanes will have only a moderate impact on activity Among outstanding issues are: - tax reform yet to be clarified - Uncertainty about the economic policy Slight upward revision of growth for in view of improved performance in 1H17 Slowdown in due to reduced support from economic policies and the appreciation of the currency Source: BBVA Research and the BEA (US Bureau of Economic Analysis) 7
1T2014 3T2014 1T2015 3T2015 1T2016 3T2016 1T 3T 1T 3T 1T2019 3T2019 1T2020 3T2020 1T2014 3T2014 1T2015 3T2015 1T2016 3T2016 1T 3T 1T 3T 1T2019 3T2019 1T2020 3T2020 1T2014 3T2014 1T2015 3T2015 1T2016 3T2016 1T 3T 1T 3T 1T2019 3T2019 1T2020 3T2020 Oil and soybean prices on the way to their new equilibrium. Temporary increase in the price of copper BRENT CRUDE (US$ per barrel) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 SOYBEANS (US$ per metric ton) 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 COPPER (US$ per lb.) 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 Previsiones en Julio Previsiones en Septiembre Previsiones en Julio Previsiones en Septiembre Previsiones en Julio Previsiones en Septiembre Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg Prices of oil and soybeans still look set, as they did a few months ago, to gradually approach their long-term equilibrium levels. We continue to expect to see Brent crude at US$60 per barrel The price of copper increased significantly, driven by financial factors, which should gradually abate going forward. We are holding our long-term equilibrium price unchanged 8
- Probability in the short term + Global risks: rebalancing from China to the US in the short term June Sept. Very high risk of deleveraging, but more contained in the short term (more gradual economic slowdown and authorities strategy) Need for reform of state companies CHI NA Management of soft landing Political controversy and risk of cyclical slowdown US EU RO ZO NE Risk of financial instability: signs of overvaluation of certain assets Fed exit risk: low, but great uncertainty regarding rate hike strategy. Political and banking concerns: More contained except in Spain ECB exit risk; very gradual, starting with tapering in. - Severity+ Upward bias Downward bias **Other risks: Geopolitical (North Korea); Protectionism (China/US) 9
dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 dic-16 dic-17 dic-18 Limited currency depreciation in Currencies have appreciated or held steady in the past three months, implying appreciation in real terms in all countries. We continue to expect moderate currency depreciation going forward, consistent with a divergence between the reduction in interest rates in South America and the increases on the part of the Fed. Exchange rate against the dollar (Dec 2016 index = 100) 150 140 130 120 110 130 120 110 100 90 The Mexican peso could appreciate in if the risks relating to the renegotiation of NAFTA and the elections do not materialise. 100 90 80 70 ARG (izq) BRA CHI COL MEX PAR PER Observado Previsión Source: BBVA Research and Haver 10
Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 in an environment in which volatility remains unusually low, with risks of reversing rapidly Implied volatility in developed markets and risk premium in Latin America Volatility at all-time low, despite the persistent economic, political and geopolitical uncertainty. Risk of market complacency, in a context of increasing interest rates in the US. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 0 300 VIX EMBI Latam (right) Source: BBVA Research, Haver Analytics and DataStream 11
2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 After five years of slowdown, Latin America has started growing again, but growth will be slow in and We have revised our growth forecast for Latin America upwards (to 1.1%) while holding it unchanged for (at 1.6%) based on improvements in the external sector and domestic investment Latin American countries: GDP growth (%) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 ARG BRA CHI COL MEX PAR PER URU Latam Mercosur Alia nza del Pacífico Oct-17 Jul-17 Source: BBVA Research Recent data show growth consolidating in Argentina and activity picking up speed in Brazil, Chile and Peru in the past few months Mexico s economic activity surprised positively in the first half of the year, but has been showing signs of slowing in the second half We have revised our growth forecast for Mexico and Peru upwards in view of the strength shown by domestic demand in the first half of the year 12
Brazil: cyclical recovery following the recession. GDP should grow by 0.6% in and 1.5% in The fiscal situation and the political noise preclude greater optimism regarding growth. Even so, recent data suggest that the recovery could be stronger than expected. The economic recovery is being led by private consumption and exports. Low inflation, looser monetary policy and the gradual improvement in the labour market will underpin private consumption. Improved terms of trade, a more favourable exchange rate and increased global demand will continue to stimulate exports. Brazil: Growth of GDP and its components* (%) 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0-2,5-5,0-7,5-10,0 Inflation, currently at 2.5%, will reach 3.2% in and 4.3% in. These relatively low levels create a margin for a more accommodative monetary policy: the SELIC rate should soon approach 7.0%. -12,5-15,0 PIB Inversión Consumo privado Consumo público Exp 2016 (p) (p) Imp * (p): projected. Source: BBVA Research and IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography & Statistics) 13
jun-15 ago-15 oct-15 dic-15 feb-16 abr-16 jun-16 ago-16 oct-16 dic-16 feb-17 abr-17 jun-17 ago-17 A structural recovery of the Brazilian economy seems unlikely in the short term, mainly because of the political situation The recent signs of congressional support for President Temer increase the probability of his completing his term of office which expires at the end of. Even so, only 3% of the population approve of the current government. It will be difficult to get approval before 2019 of an ambitious reform of the social security system (which is essential for ensuring the country s fiscal solvency) or other reforms needed to boost its potential GDP (currently around 2%). BBVA Research index of political tensions in Brazil* (moving average of the past seven days) 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 Formal instigation of process to impeach Rousseff news of recording in which Temer allegedly endorses bribes Whichever government emerges from the elections of 18 October could have enough support to be able to pass the necessary reforms. However, great uncertainty remains as to the next government's profile. 0,4 0,2 Source: BBVA Research 14
Argentina: government s sweeping victory in the elections calms fears of a return to populism Provisional results of the elections to the lower house, October 5,4% 5,0% 5,6% 5,8% 14,7% 21,8% 41,8% Cambiemos Kirchnerismo y aliados 1/ Partido Justicialista 1/ Massa y aliados Partidos de izquierda Otros En blanco y nulos Government strengthens its position in Congress although it will still be necessary to negotiate agreements with opposition parties The government has quickly embarked on structural reforms (social security, tax, labour) vital for driving investment, boosting productivity and achieving long-term economic success. The risk premium will continue to fall to the extent that the policies succeed in meeting the targets for reducing inflation and the deficit Source: Ministry of the Interior, La Nación daily newspaper and BBVA Research 15
Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago abr.-17 jun.-17 ago.-17 oct.-17 dic.-17 feb.-18 abr.-18 jun.-18 ago.-18 oct.-18 dic.-18 feb.-19 abr.-19 jun.-19 ago.-19 oct.-19 dic.-19 The improvement in economic activity in Argentina is consolidating, but inflation is falling more slowly than hoped Growth is firming up and spreading to more sectors. Growth will be close to 3% in, for the second year in a row, driven mainly by investment. Inflation remains outside the target range, with some stagnation in core inflation, leading the BCRA to toughen its monetary policy even further. The slow fiscal consolidation (-1% of GDP p.a.) and the external financing of the deficit exert upward pressure on the peso and reinforce the need for structural reforms to improve competitiveness Activity indicators (chge. % YoY) 25% PIB (indice EMAE) 20% Industria (índice EMI) 15% Construcción (índice Construya) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% National CPI, central bank targets and expectations (chge. % YoY) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% -20% 0% Source: BBVA Research Source: Indec (National Statistics Institute) and BBVA Research Rango metas BCRA IPC INDEC, estimado BBVA Expectativas mercado (REM) Source: Indec, BCRA (central bank) and BBVA Research 16
02 URUGUAY: Recovery under way, but imbalances persist
1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 1Q-14 2Q-14 3Q-14 4Q-14 1Q-15 2Q-15 3Q-15 4Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 4Q-16 1Q-17 2Q-17 3Q-17 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 GDP y/y % The economy continues to recover thanks to the dynamism of private consumption Private Consumption and Inflation (Changes %, YoY) Consumer Confidence and Exchange Rate (Index and UYU/USD) 6,5% 5,5% 4,5% 3,5% 2,5% 1,5% 0,5% -0,5% -1,5% -2,5% 5,9% 4,8% 3,8% 2,7% 1,7% -0,1% -1,3% -2,0% 1,3% 0,7% 0,1% 4,4% 4,1% 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% CPI y/y % 70,0 65,0 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 Positive optimism Moderate optimism Moderate pessimism Worthy pessimis Private Consumption Inflation CCI (left) ER (right) Source: BBVA Research based on data from BCU (Central Bank of Uruguay) and INE (National Statistics Institute) Source: BBVA Research based on data from the Department of Economy of the UCA (universidad Católica de Argentina) and the BCU Private consumption has been growing since 2016, but in the first two quarters of this year it showed year-on-year changes in excess of 4%, in line with a falling glide path of inflation High volatility in the ICC (index of construction costs), which has fallen back into the moderately pessimistic zone, although ever closer to the neutral zone. A relatively strong peso in the coming months will lead to some additional improvement in some of the ICC sub-indices such as purchases of consumer durables 18
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-03 Sep-04 Jun-05 Mar-06 Dec-06 Sep-07 Jun-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Unemployment rate Labour Market: no signs of significant recovery in jobs, but real wages continue to improve Unemployment Rate, whole country (% of EAP) 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 Nominal Wages and Inflation (Change % YoY) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Month Moving Average 3 months Nominal Wages Inflation Source: BBVA Research based on INE data Source: BBVA Research based on INE data High volatility in the monthly unemployment rate, with a rising trend in the past few years. The economy s low capacity for job creation in a context of moderate economic growth makes it difficult to return to the lows of 6% in the unemployment rate in the short term The increase in real wages in is due to the slowing of inflation. As inflation stabilises, real wages will grow at a slower pace, since nominal increases are limited by wage council agreements 19
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2019 2021 2023 2025 Growth driven by consumption, but with increasing contribution from investment We estimate GDP growth for the next few years close to the potential GDP growth of 3% Contributions to Economic Growth (%) 14% Potential GDP Growth (Change % YoY) 5% 5% 10% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% -2% 1% 0% 1% 0% -6% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 e e 2019e -1% -1% Private Consumption Investment Import Source: BBVA Research based on INE data Public Consumption Export GDP Labor Capital TFP Potential GDP Source: BBVA Research Our estimates of potential GDP are calculated on conservative assumptions about the improvement in total factor productivity The greater contribution to growth will come from the capital factor, since labour s contribution is falling due to the low rate of growth in the EAP 20
Porcentaje del PIB Adjustments to the results of the external accounts due to change of method and greater statistical coverage Main changes in current account The Balance of Trade figures now specify the import of goods for transformation carried out by many companies in free zones, which was not previously counted In the case of Services the classification has been expanded and the improvements made to the previously somewhat nebulous measurement of certain services The Primary Revenues account is now broken down to make the external accounts consistent with the domestic ones Lastly Secondary Revenues now include transfers Current account result (% of GDP) 0,02 0,01 0-0,01-0,02-0,03-0,04-0,05-0,06-4,0% -5,0% -5,0% -3,3% Source: BBVA Research based on BCU data -4,5% -2,8% -2,1% -0,7% -0,1% 1,7% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MBP5 MBP6 The results obtained with the new method show a smaller current account deficit, basically due to better trading results thanks in turn to a wider export base 21
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * 9m 2009 9m 2010 9m 2011 9m 2012 9m 2013 9m 2014 9m 2015 9m 2016 9m Base Index 2006= 100 Million of USD Numero de visitantes Lower oil imports and a recovery in tourism revenues brought about structural improvements Oil: Amount, prices and quantities Amount in US$ millions; prices and quantities in indices Inbound Tourism: record Jan.-Sept. 17 Number of visitors and spending in US$ millions 200 3.000 3.500.000 2000 175 150 125 100 75 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Millones de US$ 50 0 Amount (million USD) Price Index Quantity Index Number of visitors (left) Total expenditure in mill of USD (right) Source: BBVA Research based on BCU data Reduced dependence on oil thanks to the change in the energy model, but also lower prices made it possible to reduce the total volume of imports Source: BBVA Research based on data from the Uruguay Ministry of Tourism Tourist arrivals set a new record in the period January to September, bringing in more than US$1.8 billion, which played a decisive part in the improvement in the current account 22
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * In the balance of trade surplus will shrink We foresee slight deterioration in the Terms of Trade Export and Import Prices and Terms of Trade (Base 2005 = 100) 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Balance of Trade in Goods (FOB-FOB) (US$ millions) 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Export Prices Import Prices Terms of Trade 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 e e 2019e Exports Source: BBVA Research based on BCU data 6% 2% Imports 7% 3% 16% 10% We expect a certain recovery in the price of oil, stability in agricultural commodities and marginal increases in meat and dairy products We continue with our baseline scenario of rising imports due to increased growth and the purchase of capital goods for the pulp mill from Exports will grow at a more limited pace but with an additional increase once the pulp mill is completed. 23
% of GDP The current account remains in surplus in but we estimate it will start to deteriorate from The increase in imports will cut the trade surplus Current account result (MBP6) (% of GDP) 0,06 0,04 0,02 0-0,02-0,04-4,0% -2,9% -2,8% -0,7% 1,7% 1,7% 0,3% -0,8% The balance of trade for goods will continue to be positive, although the surplus will be reduced by increased imports Tourism will make a significant contribution, particularly if there are no major currency upsets in the region The current account deficit will be financed partly by FDI (UPM is financing the new pulp mill itself) -0,06-0,08 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 e e 2019e Trade Balance Primary Income (Interest) Current Account (%GDP) Real Services Balance Secondary Income (transfers) Source: BBVA Research based on BCU data 24
Var % yoy Fiscal Consolidation: going the right way, but more slowly than expected Tax revenues in real terms (Change % YoY, Jan-Sept.) 14,0% 12,0% 10,0% 10,6% 12,6% The government is maintaining its objective of reducing the public sector deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 2019 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,8% 3,9% 5,4% The adjustments made to IRAE and IRPF have improved tax revenues in real terms 2,0% 0,0% VAT IMESI IRPF IRAE TOTAL VAT: Value Added Tax IMESI: Tax on Specific Goods IRPF: Personal Income Tax IRAE: Corporation Tax Source: BBVA Research based on MEF (Ministry of Economy & Finance) data Revenue from VAT and IMESI increase in line with private consumption 25
%& of GDP % of GDP We continue to foresee a total deficit of 3.5% of GDP for and of 3.1% in To come anywhere near the 2019 target will require extra effort on the part of the government to reduce the ratio of primary expenditure to GDP Primary Expenditure of the Public Sector (not including state-owned enterprises) (% of GDP) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 29,1% 29,5% 28,8% 30,0% 28,6% 27,7% 2013 2014 2015 2016 f f Payrolls (%GDP) Pensions (%GDP) Other Expenditures (%GDP) Primary Expenditures (% GDP) Result of the Public Sector (% of GDP) 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% -4,0% 0,4% -2,4% -0,6% Source: BBVA Research based on MEF data 0,0% -3,5% -3,5% -0,5% -3,9% -0,2% -3,5% 0,1% 2013 2014 2015 2016 f f Primary Balance Global Balance -3,3% Postponing certain items of expenditure as the last government did or reducing capital expenditure of stateowned enterprises served to reduce spending as a percentage of GDP in, but going forward the focus should be on more structural reforms to increase the efficiency of the public sector The latest official data to September showed a cumulative 12-month deficit on the order of 3.6% of GDP, in line with our forecast for the year 26
Dic.99 Sep.00 Jun.01 Mar.02 Dic.02 Sep.03 Jun.04 Mar.05 Dic.05 Sep.06 Jun.07 Mar.08 Dic.08 Sep.09 Jun.10 Mar.11 Dic.11 Sep.12 Jun.13 Mar.14 Dic.14 Sep.15 Jun.16 Mar.17 This year the government resumed the process of dedollarisation of its debt, carrying out successful issues in pesos The public debt/gdp ratio is still moving within a contained range Gross Debt of the Public Sector (% of GDP) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Last data Jun-17. GDP estimated 57,2% 26,3% The debt in dollars is approximately 46% of total public debt The increase of GDP in dollars has led to an improvement in the ratio of debt to GDP, despite the fact that debt increased by some US$ 1.97 billion in the first half of this year. Rating agencies confirmed investment grade for Uruguayan debt 0% Public Debt/GDP Foreign Currency Debt / GDP Source: BBVA Research based on data from BCU and MEF 27
dic-15 feb-16 abr-16 jun-16 ago-16 sep-16 nov-16 ene-17 mar-17 may-17 jun-17 ago-17 oct-17 dic-12 mar-13 jun-13 sep-13 dic-13 mar-14 jun-14 sep-14 dic-14 mar-15 jun-15 sep-15 dic-15 mar-16 jun-16 sep-16 dic-16 mar-17 jun-17 sep-17 dic-17 Contractive bias of monetary policy eases Aggregate change in M1+ and targets (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Inflationary Expectations Spread % yield curve at 1 year, pesos and indexed units of account at 1 year 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Target BCU M1' M1' Cycle M1' Trend Pesos (left) UI (left) Spread (right) Source: BBVA Research based on BCU data The BCU meets the increased demand for pesos, increasing the targets from 1Q17 in line with the fall in inflation Source: BBVA Research based on BEVSA (Uruguay Electronic Stock Exchange) data The spread between instruments in pesos and those in indexed units of account has narrowed significantly, indicating a decline in inflationary expectations 28
dic-07 jun-08 dic-08 jun-09 dic-09 jun-10 dic-10 jun-11 dic-11 jun-12 dic-12 jun-13 dic-13 jun-14 dic-14 jun-15 dic-15 jun-16 dic-16 jun-17 dic-17 jun-18 dic-18 The CPI will end the year within the BCU s target range We have revised inflation for down to 6.3% and for to 7.0% in view of the stable exchange rate and the seasonal adjustment of electricity tariffs Inflation within target range (%) Consumer Price Index Chge. YoY, general level and contributions 12 10 8 10% 8% 6% 9,2% 8,5% 6,0% 10% 8% 6% 6 4% 4% 4 2% 2% 2 0% 0% 0-2% oct-15 oct-16 oct-17 Core (69.2%) Seasonal (9.6%) -2% Lower limit Upper limit Inflation BBVA Forecast Regulated (21.1%) CPI Var % yoy (right) Source: BBVA Research based on data from the INE and BCU Source: BBVA Research based on INE data Since Dec. 07 the CPI has been in the target range in just 21 months out of 118, or 17.8% of the time Apart from seasonal factors and the reduced use of price controls to contain inflation, the decline in core inflation also reflects more structural factors 29
Regional currencies have appreciated somewhat in the year, but in the past quarter the dollar has regained ground Trends in trading partners currencies (%) 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 ARG BRA CHI COL MEX PER URU EUR CHN 31dec.16 to 31jul.17 31jul.17 to 30oct.17 31dec.16 to 30oct.17 (-) implies depreciation against the dollar Source: Haver, BBVA Research Reserve Assets Factors behind the cumulative change in (US$ millions) Otros Depósitos en el Banco Central Depósitos del Sistema Bancario en el Banco Central Integración en dólares de valores del BCU Compras netas de moneda extranjera en el mercado Source: BCU Variación NETA Otros Intereses netos Obligaciones netas en moneda extranjera con Gobierno Central -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 The Uruguayan peso shows a similar but more moderate trend, since the BCU gives priority to reducing volatility The build-up of foreign currency reserves thanks to additions in dollars reflects the appetite for Uruguayan sovereign assets 30
dic-01 ago-02 abr-03 dic-03 ago-04 abr-05 dic-05 ago-06 abr-07 dic-07 ago-08 abr-09 dic-09 ago-10 abr-11 dic-11 ago-12 abr-13 dic-13 ago-14 abr-15 dic-15 ago-16 abr-17 dic-17 ago-18 abr-19 dic-19 ago-20 We are maintaining our exchange rate forecasts in an environment of gradual interest rate increases by the Fed Multilateral real exchange rate Base Dec-01 = 1 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 UYU depreciates UYU appreciates The dollar will reach UYU29.50 at the end of and UYU31.40 at the end of The exchange rate of the Uruguayan peso will also be affected by the weakening of the Brazilian real and Argentine peso 0,2 0 In terms of the multilateral real exchange rate, the UYU will depreciate by around 3% between the end of 2016 and the end of Source: BBVA Research based on data from HAVER 31
URUGUAY Macroeconomic forecasts 2015 2016 e e GDP (% YoY) 0.4 1.5 3.2 3.1 Inflation (% YoY, EOP) 9.4 8.1 6.3 7.0 Inflation (% YoY, average) 8.7 9.6 6.2 6.1 Exchange rate (vs. USD, EOP) 29.7 28.8 29.5 31.4 Exchange rate (vs. US$, average) 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.5 Lending interest rate (%, average) 21.4 22.3 21.5 21.8 Private Consumption (% YoY) -0.5 0.7 4.3 4 Public Consumption (% YoY) 2.2 1.6-1.5-1.0 Investment (% YoY) -9.0 0.7-5.0 3.5 Tax Revenue (% GDP) -3.5-3.9-3.5-3.1 Current Account (% GDP) -0.7 1.7 1.7 0.3 Source: BBVA Research 32
This report has been produced by the Argentina Division Chief Economist Gloria Sorensen gsorensen@bbva.com Adriana Haring aharing@bbva.com Juan Manuel Manias juan.manias@bbva.com BBVA Research Jorge Sicilia Serrano Macroeconomic Analysis Rafael Doménech r.domenech@bbva.com Global Macroeconomic Scenarios Miguel Jiménez mjimenezg@bbva.com Global Financial Markets Sonsoles Castillo s.castillo@bbva.com Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis Julián Cubero juan.cubero@bbva.com Innovation and Processes Oscar de las Peñas oscar.delaspenas@bbva.com Financial Systems and Regulation Santiago Fernández de Lis sfernandezdelis@bbva.com International Coordination Olga Cerqueira olga.cerqueira@bbva.com Digital Regulation Álvaro Martín alvaro.martin@bbva.com Regulation María Abascal maria.abascal@bbva.com Financial Systems Ana Rubio arubiog@bbva.com Financial Inclusion David Tuesta david.tuesta@bbva.com Spain and Portugal Miguel Cardoso miguel.cardoso@bbva.com United States Nathaniel Karp nathaniel.karp@bbva.com Mexico Carlos Serrano carlos.serranoh@bbva.com Middle East, Asia and Geopolitical Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com Turkey Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com Asia Le Xia le.xia@bbva.com South America Juan Manuel Ruiz juan.ruiz@bbva.com Argentina Gloria Sorensen gsorensen@bbva.com Chile Jorge Selaive jselaive@bbva.com Colombia Juana Téllez juana.tellez@bbva.com Peru Hugo Perea hperea@bbva.com Venezuela Julio Pineda juliocesar.pineda@bbva.com BBVA Research BBVA Banco Francés, Reconquista 199, 1ª planta C1003ABC - Buenos Aires, Argentina Tel. (+54) 11 4346 4000 - Fax (+54) 11 4346 4416 bbvaresearch@bbva.com - www.bbvaresearch.com 33