Trayport Euro Commodities Report Trayport Analysis Team April 2018
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Editorial summary April 2018: Volumes drops following a strong March, Euro Power up YoY, broker bilateral gains in EUA. April 2018 saw 6.893 million monthly contracts traded, down 15.7% vs March 2018. All groups except Emissions saw MoM declines, with Euro Gas the greatest, down 28% (1,199 TWh) to 3,155 TWh. UK Power and Coal also saw noticeable drops of 11% and 7% respectively, with UK Gas and Euro Power experiencing a smaller percentage but higher nominal declines, down 3% and 2% respectively. YTD we have seen 30.196 million monthly contracts traded, up 6% vs YTD 2017. Europe has basked in record high April temperatures, has this further magnified the tradition April drop in volumes? Euro Gas saw a reversal of the March 2018 growth, with all but one regional market experiencing declining volumes MoM. Although TTF volume eased back from a record month in March to 1,869 TWh in April it was still up 25% YoY and up 18% YTD. NBP has continued to record lower volumes YoY, down 9% and TTF s value of NBP stood at 155%, the lowest figure since November 2017. France Hubs experienced strong volume growth in March however April was a different story. MoM it declined 72% to 42 TWh, the lowest monthly total of 2018. However, YTD it remains up 48% but down 21% YoY. The broker bilateral market share gains from March were undone, dropping 16% back to 69%. Looking at Euro Power, despite German Power declining 3% YoY the commodity group advanced volumes 5% YoY. Italian and French Power providing the majority of the growth up 62% and 26% respectively. Broker cleared made market share gains in five of the eight European markets, Spanish Power the most notable with an 11% increase MoM at the expense of broker bilateral. Coal continues with lower YTD volumes with all three commodities in the group down double digits YTD and the group collectively down 18%. The only shimmer of growth was API2, up 5% YoY. The cleared market battle between ICE and CME was flat vs. March as ICE retained 76% of the cleared market with CME holding the remaining 24%. Emissions were the only group to increase MoM, with a 1% growth. It continues to be a strong performer in 2018 with April 2018 volumes for EUA the second highest on record at 953 tonnes (since Jan 11). These gains came from broker bilateral volumes rising to the highest figure seen since records began (496 tonnes) and increasing EUA broker bilateral market share MoM from 1% to 17%, primarily at the cost of broker cleared. From May 2018 we shall be including OMIE Spot Spanish Power data. Growth Current Month Market Share Exchange volume Growth Metric Broker Broker Exchange Bilateral Cleared Executed Auction Continuous Total Gas TWh NBP 3% MoM 41% 11% 48% 577.35 577.35 TTF 25% MoM 72% 10% 18% 358.81 358.81 NCG 35% MoM 85% 0% 15% 17.94 17.94 Gaspool 34% MoM 85% 0% 15% 11.53 11.53 France Hubs 72% MoM 69% 0% 31% 12.88 12.88 Austria VTP 27% MoM 73% 1% 26% 10.59 10.59 PSV 29% MoM 98% 1% 1% 0.70 0.70 ZEE 35% MoM 100% 0% 0% 0.12 0.12 Power TWh UK Power 11% MoM 81% 0% 19% 13.55 1.74 15.28 German Power 2% MoM 68% 12% 20% 20.01 86.49 106.50 French Power 14% MoM 57% 18% 25% 9.91 7.70 17.61 Nordic Power 13% MoM 0% 41% 59% 59.68 59.68 Italian Power 6% MoM 14% 72% 14% 6.14 6.14 Spanish Power 11% MoM 24% 67% 9% 1.07 1.07 CEE Power 6% MoM 41% 11% 48% 23.51 23.51 Dutch Power 8% MoM 55% 14% 31% 3.23 6.96 10.19 Belgian Power 17% MoM 57% 3% 40% 1.99 1.38 3.37 Coal MMT API2 11% MoM 0% 60% 40% 39.33 39.33 API 4 1% MoM 0% 84% 16% 1.27 1.27 gc NEWC 17% MoM 1% 81% 18% 3.30 3.30 Emissions MMT EUA 1% MoM 17% 31% 52% 88.49 407.20 495.69 CER 28% MoM 0% 0% 100% 0.60 0.60 1
European Energy Markets Composition: Broker Bilateral, Broker Cleared and Exchange Execution Note: Data sources on page 11. Table 1: Key Term Definitions Term Definition Calculation Broker Bilateral Total volume executed at a broker and settled bilaterally, without the involvement of a clearinghouse LEBA published total volume minus LEBA published cleared volume Broker Cleared Total volume executed at a broker or off exchange and given up for clearing to a clearinghouse Aggregated clearinghouse reported broker cleared volume Exchange Execution Total volume executed directly on exchange and cleared with the relevant clearinghouse Aggregated exchange reported executed volume Cleared Market Total volume cleared at a clearinghouse Broker cleared plus exchange execution Total Execution Total executed volume, at a broker or an exchange Broker bilateral plus broker cleared plus exchange executed 2
European Energy Markets Composition: YTD Trends Table 2: Volume Traded Change Commodity Class MoM YoY YTD Term Definition Emissions 1% 95% 47% Coal 7% 2% 18% MoM Current month volume versus previous month volume (e.g. October 2012 vs. September 2012) UK Gas 3% 9% 17% Euro Power 2% 5% 3% Euro Gas 28% 22% 17% UK Power 11% 17% 18% Note: Data sources on page 11. YoY YTD Current month volume versus same month last year volume Total volume YTD 2014 versus total volume YTD 2013 (e.g., Jan Oct 2014 vs. Jan Oct 2013) 3
European Energy Markets Composition: Total Euro Commodity Market Volumes (Monthly Contract Equivalents* 000 s) Note: Data sources on page 11. *Monthly Contract Equivalents calculated as total volume divided by a standard monthly contract lot size (30 day month): Commodity Class Volume Unit Standard Monthly Contract Lot Size Monthly Contract Equivalent Calculation Emissions Metric tonnes 1,000 tonnes Total volume in metric tonnes divided by 1,000 tonne Coal Metric tonnes 1,000 tonnes Total volume in metric tonnes divided by 1,000 tonne UK Gas Therms / MWh 30,000 therms / 879 MWh Total volume in MWh divided by 879 MWh Euro Power MWh 720 MWh Total volume in MWH divided by 720 MWh UK Power MWh 720 MWh Total volume in MWH divided by 720 MWh Euro Gas MWh 720 MWh Total volume in MWH divided by 720 MWh Monthly Contract Equivalents allow us to compare trading volumes across commodity classes that are traded in different volume units. 4
European Energy Markets Composition: Total Euro Commodity Market Volumes (Monthly Contract Equivalents* 000 s) Note: Data sources on page 11. *Monthly Contract Equivalents calculated as total volume divided by a standard monthly contract lot size (30 day month): 5
European Energy Markets Composition: Rebased Price Trends over Time All prices are Front Month, except EUAs, which are Front Vintage. Prices rebased 24 Months previous Note: Data sources on page 11. 6
Gas Hub Evolution NBP, TTF & Other Gas Chart Other Gas Chart 7
Broker Bilateral / Broker Cleared / Exchange Executed chart Price Indexation Chart 8
Power Market Evolution German Power & Other Power Chart Other Power Chart 9
Broker Bilateral / Broker Cleared / Exchange Executed chart Price Indexation Chart 10
Data Sources OTC brokers data LEBA www.leba.org.uk Exchange data APX ENDEX Borsa Italiana S.p.A. CME EEX ICE NASDAQ OMX BMEClearing OMIP CEGH Nord Pool Spot PolPx GME Bluenext Clearing house data LCH Data source Jan 2011 Oct 2013, TTF futures data only; source no longer available http://www.borsaitaliana.it/ http://www.cmegroup.com http://www.eex.com/ www.theice.com www.nasdaqomxcommodities.com http://www.meff.es http://www.omip.pt http://www.cegh.at http://www.nordpoolspot.com Terms of use of PolPX data are available on http://www.tge.pl http://www.mercatoelettrico.org Data source Jan 2011 Nov 2012; source no longer available www.lchclearnet.com 11