National and Regional Update Charlotte Chapter of American Association of Individual Investors, Sept. 14, Rick Kaglic Senior Regional Economist

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Transcription:

National and Regional Update Charlotte Chapter of American Association of Individual Investors, Sept. 14, 2013 Rick Kaglic Senior Regional Economist

A Quick Disclaimer 2

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 3

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 4

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 5

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 6

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 7

Real Gross Domestic Product 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.5 0.3 9.8-4.6 4.4 Structures 6.9 5.9 17.6-25.7 16.1 Equipment 5.3-3.9 8.9 1.6 2.9 Intellectual Property 1.8 2.8 5.7 3.7-0.9 Residential Fixed Investment 5.7 14.1 19.8 12.5 12.9 Exports of Goods & Services 3.8 0.4 1.1-1.3 8.6 Imports of Goods & Services 2.5 0.5-3.1 0.6 7.0 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 0.3 3.5-6.5-4.2-0.9 Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.9 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2009) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 56.8 77.2 7.3 42.2 62.6 Net Exports of Goods & Services -435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 8

Real Gross Domestic Product 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate -10-10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2.5% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 -8-9 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 9

ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index 55.4 55.7 NonManufacturing Index 56.0 58.6 Production 65.0 62.4 Business Activity 60.4 62.2 New Orders 58.3 63.2 New Orders 57.7 60.5 Employment 54.4 53.3 Employment 53.2 57.0 Supplier Deliveries 52.1 52.3 Supplier Deliveries 52.5 54.5 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Inventories 53.5 56.0 Prices 49.0 54.0 Prices 60.1 53.4 Backlog of Orders 45.0 46.5 Backlog of Orders 46.5 50.5 New Export Orders 53.5 55.5 New Export Orders 49.5 50.5 Imports 57.5 58.0 Imports 50.5 55.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 10

ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index 55.4 55.7 NonManufacturing Index 56.0 58.6 Production 65.0 62.4 Business Activity 60.4 62.2 New Orders 58.3 63.2 New Orders 57.7 60.5 Employment 54.4 53.3 Employment 53.2 57.0 Supplier Deliveries 52.1 52.3 Supplier Deliveries 52.5 54.5 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Inventories 53.5 56.0 Prices 49.0 54.0 Prices 60.1 53.4 Backlog of Orders 45.0 46.5 Backlog of Orders 46.5 50.5 New Export Orders 53.5 55.5 New Export Orders 49.5 50.5 Imports 57.5 58.0 Imports 50.5 55.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 11

ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index 55.4 55.7 NonManufacturing Index 56.0 58.6 Production 65.0 62.4 Business Activity 60.4 62.2 New Orders 58.3 63.2 New Orders 57.7 60.5 Employment 54.4 53.3 Employment 53.2 57.0 Supplier Deliveries 52.1 52.3 Supplier Deliveries 52.5 54.5 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Inventories 53.5 56.0 Prices 49.0 54.0 Prices 60.1 53.4 Backlog of Orders 45.0 46.5 Backlog of Orders 46.5 50.5 New Export Orders 53.5 55.5 New Export Orders 49.5 50.5 Imports 57.5 58.0 Imports 50.5 55.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 12

ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index 55.4 55.7 NonManufacturing Index 56.0 58.6 Production 65.0 62.4 Business Activity 60.4 62.2 New Orders 58.3 63.2 New Orders 57.7 60.5 Employment 54.4 53.3 Employment 53.2 57.0 Supplier Deliveries 52.1 52.3 Supplier Deliveries 52.5 54.5 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Inventories 53.5 56.0 Prices 49.0 54.0 Prices 60.1 53.4 Backlog of Orders 45.0 46.5 Backlog of Orders 46.5 50.5 New Export Orders 53.5 55.5 New Export Orders 49.5 50.5 Imports 57.5 58.0 Imports 50.5 55.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 13

ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS: July Aug. July Aug. Purchasing Managers Index 55.4 55.7 NonManufacturing Index 56.0 58.6 Production 65.0 62.4 Business Activity 60.4 62.2 New Orders 58.3 63.2 New Orders 57.7 60.5 Employment 54.4 53.3 Employment 53.2 57.0 Supplier Deliveries 52.1 52.3 Supplier Deliveries 52.5 54.5 Inventories 47.0 47.5 Inventories 53.5 56.0 Prices 49.0 54.0 Prices 60.1 53.4 Backlog of Orders 45.0 46.5 Backlog of Orders 46.5 50.5 New Export Orders 53.5 55.5 New Export Orders 49.5 50.5 Imports 57.5 58.0 Imports 50.5 55.0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics 14

Nonfarm Payroll Employment 139 138 Millions of Persons 139 138 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 August 136 mil. 137 136 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 128 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 15

Civilian Unemployment Rate 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 Percent August 7.3% 6.5% Threshold FOMC Forecast 4 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the June 18-19 meeting. 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics 16

Civilian Unemployment Rate 19 Percent 19 17 Official Aug. 17 15 13 Plus Marginally Attached Plus Involuntarily Part-Time 13.7% 15 13 11 11 9 8.7% 9 7 7.3% 7 5 5 3 3 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 17

Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % Personal Consumption Expenditures 5.0 1.1 1.4 Core (excludes Food* and Energy) 2.8 0.9 1.2 Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % All Items 5.9 1.9 2.0 Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.0 1.9 1.7 Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % Finished Goods 9.6 0.0 2.1 Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.0 0.6 1.2 Core Intermediate Goods 0.6-3.1 1.0 Crude Goods 0.5 15.9 9.3 Spot Commodity Price Index [Percent Change from Previous Month]: July Aug. YoY % CRB Spot Commodity Price Index -0.9 0.3-3.6 Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics 18

Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % Personal Consumption Expenditures 5.0 1.1 1.4 Core (excludes Food* and Energy) 2.8 0.9 1.2 Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % All Items 5.9 1.9 2.0 Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.0 1.9 1.7 Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]: June July YoY % Finished Goods 9.6 0.0 2.1 Core (excludes Food and Energy) 2.0 0.6 1.2 Core Intermediate Goods 0.6-3.1 1.0 Crude Goods 0.5 15.9 9.3 Spot Commodity Price Index [Percent Change from Previous Month]: July Aug. YoY % CRB Spot Commodity Price Index -0.9 0.3-3.6 Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services. Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics 19

Regional Business Activity Diffusion Index Source: FRB/Haver Analytics 20

Regional Payroll Employment Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 21

Regional Payroll Employment Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 22

Regional Payroll Employment Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 23

Regional Payroll Employment Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 24

Regional Payroll Employment Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 25

Unemployment Rates Percent Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 26

Labor Force Index, Dec. 2007 = 100 Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 27

In Conclusion 28

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

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