Global Monthly April 2018

Global Monthly April 2018 US$, billions 500 400 300 200 100 Total Potentially impacted by new tariffs 0 China exports to U.S. U.S. exports to China

Monthly Highlights Global economy: maturing upturn, gradual pickup in inflation. Global growth was still solid in 18Q1, but showed signs of moderation amid mixed incoming data in major economies. Global capital spending, exports, and industrial production continued to show momentum, but consumer spending softened. In March, business and consumer confidence dropped from postcrisis highs, while global PMI surveys fell appreciably, reaching a 16-month low as activity decelerated in both manufacturing and services (Figure 1.A). Concerns about an escalating trade spat between the United States and China impacted financial market sentiment and increased policy uncertainty. Global inflation remained moderate but increased gradually in 18Q1, supported by higher oil prices and diminished global economic slack (Figure 1.B). Inflation picked up in major advanced economies and commodity-importing EMDEs, but continued to decline in key commodity exporters, as the impact of past currency depreciations waned. Global goods trade: strong gains, but rising policy uncertainty. Global goods trade growth remained strong at the start of 2018, supported by robust trade flows in Asia and across major advanced economies. However, export orders weakened in March to a 15-month low, indicating softening momentum toward the end of 18Q1. On the policy front, risk of escalating trade protectionism increased, following tariff announcements by the United States and China. The impact of these measures will depend on their ultimate scope; however, a rise in trade policy uncertainty could itself weigh on confidence, financial market sentiment, and eventually on activity (Figure 1.C). United States: slowing growth, rising fiscal deficits. GDP growth slowed to 2.3 percent in 18Q1 (q/q saar), from 2.9 percent in the previous quarter. The deceleration reflected weaker consumer spending and export growth, partially offset by robust business investment. Labor market conditions remained robust, with employment gains averaging 202,000 in 18Q1, and the unemployment rate stabilizing to 4.1 percent, its lowest level in 17 years. Survey data continue to point to sustained growth, with consumer confidence remaining close to post-crisis highs in April. Despite some moderation in Q1, export growth continued to benefit from strong external demand and past depreciation of the U.S. dollar. China s announced retaliatory tariffs, if implemented, FIGURE 1.A Global industrial production growth and manufacturing PMI FIGURE 1.B Inflation in major advanced economies and EMDEs FIGURE 1.C U.S. trade policy uncertainty Sources: Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); Haver Analytics; World Bank. A. Last observation is March 2018 for manufacturing PMI and February 2018 for industrial production. B. World CPI is the median value. Last observation is March 2018. C. Trade policy-related uncertainty in the United States is based on Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), and computes the frequency of articles in domestic newspapers mentioning terms related to trade policy (e.g., import tariffs, import barriers, WTO, dumping, etc.). Last observation is March 2018. 2

could affect up to $50 billion of U.S. exports to China, including vehicles and aircraft, as well as soybeans and other vegetable products. Fiscal stimulus measures are expected to support activity in the near term, but are also contributing to a rapid increase in budget deficits, which are expected to reach 4 percent of GDP in 2018 and increase to 4.6 percent in 2019 (Figure 2.A). Euro Area: stabilizing confidence. The recovery in the Euro Area continues, but recent data have been relatively soft. Following exceptionally strong growth throughout 2017, the deceleration in activity has been particularly visible in Germany, where retail sales and industrial production dropped in 18Q1. Nonetheless, Euro Area activity is still tracking above-trend growth amid accommodative monetary policy, rising investment, and solid credit growth. Although sentiment indicators remain robust, they dropped in March and stabilized at a lower level in April, following decade-long highs at the start of 2018 (Figure 2.B). The unemployment rate continued to fall, reaching 8.5 percent in February, while inflation picked up in March, to 1.3 percent (y/y), but remains below the European Central Bank s target. Japan: mixed activity data, rising inflation. Industrial production increased in February and March, but not enough to offset a sharp fall in January, while the manufacturing PMI declined in February and March, suggesting that growth slowed in 18Q1. However, the all-firm Tankan business sentiment indicator improved and the Manufacturing PMI increased marginally in April, pointing to the possibility of a rebound in 18Q2. Inflation declined to 1.1 percent (y/y) in March, while core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) remained subdued at 0.5 percent. Inflation expectations are still well below the central bank s target. In its April meeting, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, but dropped its timeframe for reaching 2 percent inflation by fiscal year 2019. China: resilient growth. Growth in 18Q1 remained stable at 6.8 percent (y/y), for the third consecutive quarter, supported by strong consumer spending. Industrial production has been robust so far this year, expanding by 6.8 percent (y/y) in 18Q1, up from 6.2 percent un 17Q4, but moderated in March. Credit growth has continued to slow amid tighter regulation, but the impact on activity has been limited (Figure 2.C). Lunar New Year effects continued to distort China s trade figures, but preliminary data for March suggests that trade flows were robust in 18Q1. China responded to proposed U.S. tariffs affecting primarily exports of FIGURE 2.A U.S. budget deficits, revenues, and outlays FIGURE 2.B Euro Area economic sentiment FIGURE 2.C China s total loan growth Sources: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), European Commission, Haver Analytics, People s Bank of China. A. Shaded area indicates CBO forecasts. B. Composite index measures the confidence level across manufacturers, service providers, consumers, retailers, and constructors. Last observation is April 2018. C. Data are end of period and are estimates for 2018Q1. 3

machinery, mechanical appliances, and electrical equipment with countervailing measures, while filing a challenge under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. Consumer price inflation eased slightly to 1.9 percent (y/y) in March, reflecting lower food, tourism, and transportation prices, but has been on an upward trend since a trough in early 2017. Major commodity-exporting EMDEs: varying trends. Following sustained improvements in 2017, incoming data for 18Q1 remained consistent with a gradual recovery in commodity exporters, but with notable divergences across countries (Figure 3.A). Activity in Brazil lost some momentum, with industrial production and retail sales growth moderating in February. However, business sentiment improved in March and monetary policy easing is providing ongoing support to domestic demand. In Russia, the composite PMI dropped in March, and the ruble depreciated sharply in April amid rising geopolitical concerns. In Indonesia, a contraction in the chemical sector dragged down industrial production in recent months, but the underlying growth momentum remains strong. In Nigeria, survey data picked up in March, pointing to strengthening activity in 18Q1, while manufacturing activity decelerated in South Africa, following solid gains in 17Q4. In Saudi Arabia, the composite PMI remained stable in March following a sharp decline in January when the new value-added tax was introduced. Major commodity-importing EMDEs: sustained strength. Activity generally remained robust in commodity importers (Figure 3.B). In India, industrial production grew 7.1 percent (y/ y) in February, despite a slowdown in mining, while manufacturing output gained 8.7 percent (y/y). However, the manufacturing PMI fell in March, driven by weakening new orders and hiring. Growth in Poland and Turkey was robust in 17Q4, and survey data point to continued, albeit softening, momentum in 18Q1. Data in Thailand are mixed, with strong exports but moderating confidence. In Mexico, the flash estimate for 18Q1 growth came in at 1.1 percent (q/q sa), up from 0.8 percent in 17Q4, supported by rising industrial activity. In Egypt, industrial growth remained resilient, growing 12 percent (y/y) in February, while inflation continued to decline in March. Global financial markets: tightening. Prospects of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and rising inflation expectations pushed U.S. long-term yields to a four-year high of 3 percent FIGURE 3.A Industrial production in selected commodity-exporting EMDEs FIGURE 3.B Industrial production in selected commodity-importing EMDEs FIGURE 3.C 10-year government bond yields Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank. A. B. Data reflect 3-month moving averages. Last observation is February 2018. C. Last observation is April 30, 2018 for the United States and Germany, and April 27, 2018 for Japan. 4

Basis points 600 500 Sovereign Corporate 400 300 200 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US$, billions 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-Apr 2017 Jan-Apr 2018 EAP LAC MNA ECA SSA SAR US$/bbl 70 Oil price, WTI U.S. equity index (RHS) 60 50 40 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Index 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 5

Percent 8 Potential growth Actual growth 6 1998-2017 potential growth 4 2 0 1998-2002 2003-07 2008-12 2013-17 2018-27 1998-2002 2003-07 2008-12 2013-17 2018-27 1998-2002 2003-07 2008-12 2013-17 2018-27 World AEs EMDEs Percent 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 2013-17 Contribution World Baseline Demographic trends Other factors 2018-27 2013-17 Contribution 2018-27 EMDEs (RHS) Percent 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.6 Percent 100 Share of countries Share of GDP 75 50 25 0 World AEs EMDEs 6

EMDE by as much as their largest historical improvement in any ten-year period. This would imply an average increase in secondary and tertiary enrollment rates of 7 percentage points over the next decade, and an average rise in life expectancy of 2.5 years. Increasing labor force participation. Labor supply can be raised by drawing a greater share of the working-age population into the labor force. This can be achieved through policies to activate discouraged workers or groups with historically low participation rates, such as women and young or senior workers. In the stylized scenario, female labor force participation rates along cohort-, age-, and country-specific dimensions are assumed to rise, over the next decade, by the largest historical ten-year improvement in each EMDE, although they are not assumed to exceed the rates of same-aged men. On average, this would imply raising the female labor force participation rate by 10 percentage points by 2027. The assumption underlying this result is that, over the decade, sufficient jobs will be created to absorb this additional labor supply. Estimated impact on potential growth. The stylized scenarios above suggest that a combination of additional investment; better educational and health outcomes; and labor market, business climate, and governance reforms could stem or even reverse the expected decline in potential growth over the next decade (Figure 6.A). The human and physical capital and labor market reform scenarios above are associated with 0.7 percentage point higher EMDE potential growth. This would more than offset the 0.5- percentage-point slowdown in EMDE potential growth expected under the baseline scenario. Projected gains from filling large investment needs in EMDEs could be particularly significant, contributing to more than half the expected improvement. Reform spurts, productivity, and investment growth. A renewed drive for reforms could help lift potential growth even in the short to medium run. Past reform spurts were followed by accelerating productivity and investment growth. To illustrate this linkage, an event study defines major reform spurts as those that significantly improve governance or business climate indicators. Four years after the reform spurts, TFP growth was about 0.3-0.5 percentage points higher and investment growth about 2.8 to 3.5 percentage points higher compared to their average in years without spurts (Figure 6.B & C). FIGURE 6.A Potential growth under reform scenarios FIGURE 6.B Change in TFP growth 2-4 years after reform episodes FIGURE 6.C Change in real investment growth 2-4 years after reform episodes Source: World Bank. A. C. GDP-weighted averages. Derived using the methodology described in Chapter 3 of the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects. B. C. Regression coefficients of growth on dummies for structural reform spurts and setbacks defined as statistically significant changes in four Worldwide Governance Indicators from local projections model for lags of two and four years, for a sample of 136 EMDEs and 38 advanced economies during 1996-2015. Vertical bars show 90 percent confidence level. 7

Global Economic Prospects June 2018 (forthcoming) Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2018: Oil Exporters: Policies and Challenges Global Economic Prospects - January 2018: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? Global Economic Prospects - June 2017: A Fragile Recovery Impact of Free Trade Agreement Use on Import Prices Sharing the Benefits of Innovation-Digitization: A Summary of Market Processes and Policy Suggestions Capital Inflows, Equity Issuance Activity, and Corporate Investment Returns to Investment in Education: A Decennial Review of the Global Literature Interest Rate Caps: The Theory and the Practice Paris Climate Agreement and the Global Economy: Winners and Losers Taxation and the Shadow Economy: How the Tax System Can Stimulate and Enforce the Formalization of Business Activities What Investors Want: Perceptions and Experiences of Multinational Corporations in Developing Countries The Performance of a Consumption Augmented Asset Index in Ranking Households and Identifying the Poor The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs World Development Report 2018: LEARNING to Realize Education s Promise Women, Business and the Law (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: March 23, 2018 - April 25, 2018 Upcoming releases: April 26, 2018 - May 21, 2018 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Netherland 3/26/18 GDP Q4 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.0% Iceland 4/27/18 CPI APR 2.8 % France 3/26/18 GDP Q4 2.5% 2.3% Austria 4/27/18 GDP Q1 2.8 % South Korea 3/27/18 GDP Q4 2.8 % 3.8 % France 4/27/18 GDP Q1 2.0 % United States 3/28/18 GDP Q4 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.3 % UK 4/27/18 GDP Q1 1.4 % Turkey 3/29/18 GDP Q4 7.4 % 10.5 United States 4/27/18 GDP Q1 2.6 % UK 3/29/18 GDP Q4 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.8% Lithuania 4/30/18 GDP Q1 3.8 % Denmark 4/5/18 GDP Q4 1.3 % 1.1% Spain 4/30/18 GDP Q1 3.1 % Mexico 4/9/18 CPI MAR 5.0% 5.3% Mexico 4/30/18 GDP Q1 1.5 % United States 4/11/18 CPI MAR 2.4 % 2.5% 2.2 % Latvia 5/1/18 GDP Q1 4.2 % Sweden 4/12/18 CPI MAR 2.0 % 1.6% Indonesia 5/2/18 GDP Q1 5.2 % Ireland 4/12/18 CPI MAR 0.2 % 0.5 % Italy 5/2/18 GDP Q1 1.6 % Spain 4/13/18 CPI MAR 1.2 % 1.1 % Eurozone 5/2/18 GDP Q1 2.7 % China 4/16/18 GDP Q4 6.8 % 6.9% Turkey 5/3/18 CPI APR 10.23 % Italy 4/17/18 CPI MAR 0.8 % 0.5% Indonesia 5/7/18 GDP Q1 5.2 % Croatia 4/17/18 CPI MAR 1.0% 0.8 % Brazil 5/10/18 CPI APR 2.7% Austria 4/18/18 CPI MAR 2.0% 1.9% Cyprus 5/15/18 GDP Q1 3.9 % South Africa 4/18/18 CPI MAR 3.7% 3.8% Germany 5/15/18 GDP Q1 2.9 % UK 4/18/18 CPI MAR 2.5 % 2.7% 2.7 % Slovakia 5/15/18 GDP Q1 3.5 % Japan 4/19/18 CPI MAR 1.1 % 1.2% 1.5 % Poland 5/15/18 GDP Q1 5.1 % Canada 4/20/18 CPI MAR 2.3 % 2.2 % Portugal 5/15/18 GDP Q1 2.4 % Australia 4/23/18 CPI Q1 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % Thailand 5/21/18 GDP Q1 4.0 % 8

TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) Industrial production, sa 1 Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. TABLE C: Trade and Finance Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. April 2018 2017 2017 2018 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb World 2.0 4.0 3.6 5.0 3.4 5.6 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 Advanced economies 0.1 2.8 1.6 4.4 2.1 5.5 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.6 2.8 3.3 Emerging market and developing economies 4.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 4.7 5.6 5.6 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.4 6.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 0.1 2.2 2.4 4.6 2.8-0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 1.4 2.3 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.1 Other EMDE 5.2 6.1 6.6 6.0 5.2 7.3 6.8 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.4 5.8 6.4 6.6 7.6 7.6 East Asia and Pacific 5.9 6.2 7.3 5.9 4.7 4.9 7.4 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.8 6.6 East Asia excl. China 4.7 4.0 5.7 0.7 7.6-2.1 6.0 4.3 5.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 5.8 3.2 3.4 2.1 4.2 2.8 Europe and Central Asia 2.7 5.4 3.3 10.3 4.0 6.0 4.6 4.7 6.6 5.3 6.8 6.9 7.0 5.9 5.1 6.6 7.9 6.9 Latin America and Caribbean -2.2 0.7 1.2 0.0 3.0 2.9-0.8-0.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.6 1.8 1.3 2.2 1.5 2.1 Middle East and North Africa -7.0 18.5 24.2 22.9 20.0 10.4 4.8 21.1 20.4 23.4 30.7 15.5 19.5 18.8 22.9 16.2 8.2 9.1 South Asia 5.3 4.6 4.2 2.3 6.7 13.8 5.5 4.6 4.0 0.1 4.0 6.5 4.7 3.7 8.8 7.6 8.2 7.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0-0.2-4.1 3.1 3.9 7.3-2.1-0.5-1.8-2.8-0.7 1.2-0.8 1.7 2.5 3.2 1.7 1.2 Inflation, sa 2 World 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 Advanced economies 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Emerging market and developing economies 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 Other EMDE 1.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.5 East Asia and Pacific 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.7 Europe and Central Asia 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 Middle East and North Africa 2.1 1.6 2.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.0 South Asia 4.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 3.6 3.8 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.3 5.1 6.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 6.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.8 5.1 4.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2017 2017 2018 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, nominal, US$, sa World -3.0 10.2 17.3 3.7 13.2 15.3 12.9 3.7 11.1 7.5 10.2 10.9 11.0 12.2 13.0 11.6 17.2 17.4 Advanced economies -0.8 9.5 17.3 1.9 17.4 12.1 10.7 1.2 10.3 6.5 9.9 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.4 17.8 12.7 Emerging market and developing economies -6.5 11.5 17.3 6.9 6.0 21.2 16.9 8.5 12.7 9.5 10.8 11.2 11.1 13.1 13.2 11.8 16.1 26.8 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -8.9 17.1 34.2-9.0 17.8 24.4 23.0 12.9 19.3 9.9 17.2 16.7 16.3 20.4 13.9 13.1 20.9 15.3 Other EMDEs -4.6 9.3 10.9 14.2 1.6 19.9 14.6 6.8 10.2 9.3 8.5 9.0 9.1 10.3 12.9 11.3 14.5 31.5 East Asia and Pacific -6.1 9.7 11.2 15.9 0.8 17.8 15.3 8.7 11.1 9.0 10.4 8.0 9.8 10.0 12.8 10.9 14.4 33.7 Europe and Central Asia -6.0 16.4 32.8-1.6 16.2 32.6 21.2 5.4 19.8 11.1 11.3 20.3 16.5 22.2 19.5 15.9 26.4 20.9 Latin America and Caribbean -2.3 11.9 22.6-0.2 7.0 16.2 17.4 9.7 11.6 12.8 10.7 11.4 10.5 15.9 9.3 8.4 12.0 11.9 Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.6 5.5 11.5-7.9 8.7 27.3 10.9 6.3-1.8-3.4 11.7 9.8 4.6 4.1 12.1 11.4 6.5 8.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -13.6 14.5 44.9-12.4 10.0 27.7 18.0 4.6 10.7 11.7 13.5 16.2 8.4 16.4 13.9 16.4 - - Imports, nominal, US$, sa World -5.3 12.1 22.2 15.4-0.1 32.1 10.3-6.2 25.5 7.2 21.5 16.0 5.9 17.9 13.1 19.6 16.5 21.3 Advanced economies -3.4 9.1 18.9 4.2 13.5 19.5 9.1 2.1 10.2 5.1 10.6 8.9 9.3 14.0 13.8 13.8 18.7 15.2 Emerging market and developing economies -6.4 13.8 24.2 22.0-6.9 39.5 11.0-10.3 34.5 8.4 27.8 20.4 3.9 20.2 12.7 22.9 15.2 24.7 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -7.3 13.2 20.1 30.7-11.7 45.6 8.8-15.4 39.5 7.2 31.5 22.4-0.3 21.2 11.3 26.0 10.2 - Other EMDEs -3.0 16.1 38.6-3.4 11.6 20.7 19.0 11.0 17.2 12.5 15.7 14.3 17.6 16.6 17.8 13.4 32.8 11.4 East Asia and Pacific -3.6 17.4 49.5-11.5 13.2 17.8 20.6 12.4 17.6 13.4 15.8 13.9 19.0 17.8 18.6 9.7 37.7 9.2 Europe and Central Asia -1.2 18.3 38.4 14.4 20.0 17.7 14.8 8.1 23.0 13.7 26.8 17.0 20.0 21.1 23.5 22.2 28.6 21.6 Latin America and Caribbean -7.4 8.2 23.5-7.4 9.9 18.9 13.1-1.3 12.1 6.2 7.6 9.3 4.7 16.3 9.0 6.9 13.6 10.9 Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -5.4 22.3 36.4 9.9-10.0 35.5 41.6 41.8 30.3 13.1 20.5 21.0 18.5 10.9 18.8 19.0 24.3 11.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -13.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - International reserves, US$ 1 World -2.0 7.2 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.3-0.6 Advanced economies 3.2 9.9 3.4 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3-0.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 - Emerging market and developing economies -5.2 5.3 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3-0.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -4.5-0.5 0.5 0.8-0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 - - - - Other EMDEs -5.7 5.9 0.5 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4-0.7 East Asia and Pacific -7.3 5.3 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0-0.9 Europe and Central Asia 3.4 10.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 0.9 0.3-0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0-0.3 3.6 0.2 Latin America and Caribbean 1.4 2.7 0.5 1.7 1.0-1.0-0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3-0.1 0.5-0.4-0.7 0.8 0.1 Middle East and North Africa -10.7 - -2.0-1.7 - - 0.2-1.2-0.2-0.3-1.0-0.2 - - - - - - South Asia 3.6 11.8 2.1 4.5 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.1-0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4-0.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -4.7-3.2 0.7 0.4 - -0.5 3.5-1.2-1.6 2.4-1.7 0.0 0.8 - - - - 9

TABLE D: Financial Markets 10 April 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) TABLE E: Commodity Prices 2017 2018 2017 2018 MRV 1 2016 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar U.S. federal funds effective 0.39 0.97 0.92 1.13 1.17 1.40 0.88 0.88 1.01 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.74 1.26 1.20 1.32 1.47 1.93 1.16 1.19 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.36 EURIBOR 3-months -0.26-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 1.84 2.33 2.26 2.24 2.37 2.76 2.30 2.30 2.19 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 3.00 German Bund, 10 year 0.11 0.37 0.31 0.46 0.38 0.57 0.26 0.37 0.29 0.54 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.54 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 410 325 325 322 313 309 331 320 325 327 325 314 306 320 312 299 309 319 322 Asia 221 164 169 161 151 157 173 167 166 163 163 157 148 153 151 146 156 168 170 Europe 302 243 242 234 233 221 250 237 240 243 234 224 226 244 229 212 217 234 241 Latin America and the Caribbean 537 429 427 428 416 418 431 420 430 435 435 416 407 422 419 410 420 423 423 Middle East 517 385 362 383 400 367 350 353 382 382 382 384 381 421 398 359 366 374 391 Africa 518 376 386 380 350 320 400 376 383 394 378 367 360 359 332 305 317 337 340 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 424 508 465 487 508 500 455 464 465 478 478 487 497 505 508 502 517 500 508 Advanced economies ($ index) 1761 2086 1916 2001 2086 2042 1878 1912 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2082 United States (S&P 500) 2258 2668 2423 2519 2668 2590 2384 2421 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2635 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1475 1558 1534 1571 1558 1493 1564 1576 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1546 Japan (Nikkei 225) 19302 22530 20033 20356 22530 21203 19197 19836 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22278 Emerging market and 861 1139 1011 1082 1139 1167 978 1005 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1154 developing economies (MSCI) EM Asia 419 577 512 543 577 589 484 505 512 538 544 543 571 572 577 584 603 589 584 EM Europe 295 341 304 331 341 350 313 308 304 315 336 331 330 330 341 354 370 350 337 EM Europe and Middle East 248 275 251 268 275 280 259 255 251 261 274 268 268 265 275 285 295 280 272 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2341 2811 2544 2917 2811 3008 2601 2532 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2979 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 Japan 108.80 112.11 111.10 110.96 112.75 107.94 110.02 112.36 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.66 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.49 3.19 3.21 3.16 3.24 3.24 3.14 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 China 6.65 6.76 6.86 6.67 6.61 6.35 6.89 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 Egypt 10.12 17.85 18.10 17.77 17.71 17.68 18.09 18.10 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.62 India 67.19 65.11 64.48 64.29 64.71 64.40 64.52 64.46 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 66.11 Russia 67.06 58.31 57.17 58.93 58.47 56.96 56.53 56.88 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.38 South Africa 14.71 13.31 13.21 13.19 13.62 11.93 13.46 13.25 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.11 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value. 119.7 119.6 120.7 116.6 117.5 114.1 121.7 121.0 119.4 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 114.9 2017 2018 2017 2018 MRV 1 2016 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Energy 2 55 68 64 65 75 82 67 64 60 62 65 68 71 76 78 85 81 81 81 Non-energy 2 80 84 82 84 85 88 82 83 82 83 84 85 85 85 85 87 89 88 88 Agriculture 2 88 87 87 86 86 89 87 88 87 88 85 86 86 86 85 88 89 91 91 Metals and minerals 2 64 79 74 81 84 88 75 73 72 76 83 84 84 84 85 89 89 85 87 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 43 53 50 50 59 64 52 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 71 Gold ($/toz) 1249 1258 1258 1278 1275 1329 1267 1246 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1325 Baltic Dry Index 676 1152 1023 1138 1509 1171 1229 979 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1306 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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