DKM/IBF SME Market Monitor Q3 2013 14 th November 2013 Food Accommodation Construction Retail Cashflow Collateral Finance Investment Employment Sentiment Spending Turnover Prepared for the Irish Banking Federation November 2013 1
Introduction This is a new Quarterly DKM/IBF SME Market Monitor, prepared for the Irish Banking Federation (IBF) 1. The purpose of this Market Monitor is to present up to date trends across a range of indicators which are important for the performance of the SME sector. With SMEs accounting for the overwhelming majority of enterprises, almost 72% of persons engaged, 50% of turnover and 46% of Gross Valued Added, their performance is very closely linked with the overall health of the economy. How consumers feel about the overall state of the economy, their personal financial situation and their ability to make purchases will influence the performance of SMEs. The level of confidence amongst businesses is equally important, as the more confident business owners and managers are, the greater the prospects for their companies, overall employment and incomes. They are also more likely to make investment and purchase decisions. In a report prepared for the IBF earlier this year 2, it was noted that the highest concentration of Irish SMEs are in Accommodation and Food services, Construction and Real Estate activities, while the Motor and Wholesale Trades as well as Professional, Scientific and Technical services also figure prominently in terms of employment. A number of challenges have existed for SMEs following the unprecedented economic adjustment over the past six years which hit many SMEs especially hard. While the environment remains challenging, the return to more sustainable growth and trading conditions in time will ensure that SMEs will remain central to Ireland s economic and jobs recovery. This publication monitors a number of indicators that influence the circumstances under which SMEs conduct their business. A total of 15 indicators, which are published on a quarterly and/or monthly basis, are presented in tabular and graphical form with a brief commentary. This publication also contains a summary commentary which seeks to bring an overall assessment of what these indicators are telling us about the environment for SMEs. The indicators presented are grouped under four headings: SENTIMENT INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS SECTORAL INDICATORS LENDING INDICATORS The data includes a number of the published sentiment indicators, including those from the ESRI, KBC and Investec. Much of the macroeconomic and sectoral data comes from the CSO while the SME lending data is from the Central Bank. Where data is known to be affected by seasonal patterns, the CSO presents seasonally adjusted (SA) data which allows month on month (MoM) or quarter on quarter (QoQ) trends to be analysed. The seasonally adjusted data can vary each month/quarter as new observations are added and these changes will be reflected in subsequent issues of the DKM/IBF SME Market Monitor. This quarterly publication appears in electronic on the Irish Banking Federation s website: www.ibf.ie and is available on www.dkm.ie. 1 This report is produced by DKM Economic Consultants. DKM was given editorial independence by the Irish Banking Federation to prepare its views, analysis, forecasts and economic commentary on data and statistical trends related to the SME sector. The views expressed herein are DKM s views and do not necessarily coincide with the views of the Irish Banking Federation. 2 http://www.ibf.ie/gns/publications/research/dkm_sme_lending_2013.aspx 1
Mixed Signals for SMEs - Sentiment and employment improving but domestic economy still fragile The range of data selected to monitor the operating environment facing SMEs portrays a mixed set of conditions. The overriding issue facing SMEs remains the challenging macroeconomic context, as both consumers and businesses are focused on repaying and restructuring debt following a range of investments made during the boom years. The most recent data from the CSO show a QoQ decrease in domestic demand in seasonally adjusted terms in each of the last three quarters. These trends continued to adversely affect the demand for SME products and services in the first half of 2013. SMEs require consumers to be confident about their financial situation. While spending power remains under pressure, the most recent KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment index for September suggests that consumers are growing more optimistic about the economic recovery over the next year, possibly as a result of recent good news on the labour market. Purchasing managers in manufacturing enterprises reported an improvement in manufacturing output for the fifth month in a row in October (Investec MPMI). The latest results from the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) show employment is up by 33,800 in the year to Q2 2013. Looking at the sectors with the highest concentration of SMEs - Construction, Wholesale and Retail, and Accommodation and Food all three posted employment gains in the year to Q2 2013 for the first time since 2007. The volume of retail sales, a key determinant of SME activity, has been relatively stagnant for some time now and this trend continued in September as the seasonally adjusted retail sales index excluding motor sales increased by just 0.1% MoM. The Tourism sector, a major SME sector, which would have struggled since the onset of the crisis, is showing signs of a recovery in overseas tourist numbers. This is having a positive impact on tourism related sectors, notably Accommodation, Food, Bars and Retail outlets but there is concern that the improvement may not be sustained in 2014. The most recent lending data shows that the volume of new credit advanced to Irish SMEs excluding financial, primary and property related sectors was 264m in June, down 85m in twelve months. Credit outstanding to the same group of SMEs totalled 22.6bn at end June, a fall of 6% or 1.4bn on the previous year. In summary, there is evidence of an uplift in some indicators which could augur well for the prospects of SMEs in the months ahead. However, trends in others, which are most relevant for SMEs, notably domestic demand and retail sales, suggest that the trading environment for many SMEs remains difficult. The picture which emerges is one of a fragile domestic economy in which personal consumption, government spending and investment continue to struggle since the onset of the economic crisis. With the volume of domestic demand down by 5.4% in the last two years, strong positive growth seems unlikely in the short-term at least. Similarly, the Retail Sales Index has been relatively stagnant for some time now, both including and excluding motor sales. Any meaningful pick up in retail sales and thus SME activity will require a sustained increase in disposable incomes and a willingness amongst consumers to spend. 2
1. Sentiment Indicators Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Table 1: Consumer Sentiment Index May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Monthly Index 61.2 70.6 68.2 66.8 73.1 76.2 Annual change in level 0.2 8.3 0.5-3.2 12.8 15.4 Monthly change in level 2.3 9.4-2.3-1.4 6.2 3.2 3 mth moving avg. 60.0 63.5 66.7 68.5 69.4 72.0 Source: KBC/ESRI The KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 73.1 in September to 76.2 in October. This is the highest reading of the index recorded since June 2007 while the 3-month moving average of 72.0 is the highest since October 2007. The Consumer Sentiment Index comprises two sub-indices, the Index of Consumer Expectations, measuring consumer perceptions of their future financial situation and economic outlook, and the Index of Current Economic Conditions. Source: KBC/ESRI Figure 2: Manufacturing PMI The improvement in the overall index in October was driven mainly by increases in the Index of Current Economic Conditions but the forward looking Index of Consumer Expectations continues to increase. This suggests consumers are becoming more optimistic about the economic recovery over the next year, possibly fuelled by the recent news on increasing employment discussed later. Table 2: Manufacturing PMI Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 PMI 48 49.7 50.3 51 52 52.7 54.9 Monthly Change -0.6 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 2.2 Source: Investec The seasonally adjusted Investec Purchasing Managers Index is designed to provide a single figure measure of the overall health of the manufacturing industry in Ireland. In October, the measure posted a figure of 54.9 which marked the fifth successive month of improvement (above 50). It was the highest figure recorded since April 2011. Source: Investec New orders increased for the fourth consecutive month as improving economic conditions and higher new export orders were cited as contributing factors. Encouragingly from a labour market perspective, staffing levels increased for a fifth month. The pace of the increase in employment was the fastest since June 2012. Input prices increased but only a marginal increase in output prices was recorded. This uptick in activity is good news for SMEs in the manufacturing sector but also for those that will benefit from the knock-on effects of increased employment in the economy. 2. Macroeconomic Indicators Figure 3: Domestic Demand SA ( m) Table 3: Domestic Demand SA (constant 2011 prices, m) Domestic Demand 31,288 30,898 31,157 31,007 30,625 30,404 QoQ % Change 0.9% -1.2% 0.8% -0.5% -1.2% -0.7%, National Accounts Domestic demand offers a better insight into the performance of the domestic economy than either GDP or GNP due to the effect of the actions of large multinational corporations on those measures. Seasonally adjusted domestic demand decreased by 0.7% QoQ in Q2 13 to 30.4 billion., National Accounts Domestic demand showed signs of a possible recovery in the second half of 2012 but unfortunately the downward trend continued in 2013. Personal consumption, government current spending and investment have all been struggling since the onset of the crisis which has adversely affected demand for SME products. Austerity measures on the domestic front have increased dependence on exports and the international environment, but a recent more positive growth dynamic for the UK and euro zone may generate more positive spillover effects into the domestic environment. Notwithstanding these developments, SMEs are heavily dependent on domestic demand, which has declined by 5.4% in the last two years, and strong positive growth seems unlikely in the short-term at least. 1
Figure 4: Unemployment Rate SA Table 4: Unemployment Rate SA Unemployment (SA) 15.1% 14.9% 14.6% 14.1% 13.8% 13.7%, QNHS Figures from the most recent QNHS show that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 13.7% in Q2 13. Although the unemployment rate is above the euro area average of 12.1%, it has fallen every quarter since Q1 12 when it stood at 15.1%. It is now at its lowest point since Q1 10 in seasonally adjusted terms. While this is welcome news, a large proportion of the decrease can be attributed to emigration and people entering non-paying internships and training programmes. Gains in employment have only recently become a contributing factor., QNHS Figure 5: Disposable Income SA ( millions) (Chain linked to 2011) A reduction in the unemployment rate is encouraging news for SMEs as it would suggest improved income levels for those coming off the Live Register and an increased willingness or ability to spend. It may also indicate improved health of SMEs as their hiring may account for a proportion of the decline. Table 5: Total Disposable Income and Components SA ( millions) Total Disp. Income 22,319 21,685 21,623 21,517 21,385 21,386 QoQ % Change 3.0% -2.8% -0.3% -0.5% -0.6% 0.0% Consumption Exp. 19,317 19,386 19,728 19,794 19,467 19,504 QoQ % Change -0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% -1.7% 0.2% Gross Saving 3,002 2,299 1,895 1,723 1,918 1,882 QoQ % Change 32.7% -23.4% -17.6% -9.1% 11.3% -1.9% On a seasonally adjusted basis, total disposable income stood at 21.4bn in Q2 13. This is unchanged from the Q1 13 figure. Consumption expenditure increased by 0.2% over the same period to 19.5bn while gross savings decreased by 1.9% to 1.8bn. Any meaningful uptick in SME activity will need sustained increases in disposable incomes. As a large proportion of SMEs are active in the retail, accommodation and food and construction sectors, they need people to feel wealthier which will increase their willingness to spend. The increase in the DIRT rate to 41% in Budget 2014 may impact positively on spending as it may curb the level of saving. 3. Sectoral Indicators Figure 6: Weekly Earnings by Size of Business by Sector ( ) Table 6: Weekly Earnings by Business Size by Sector ( ) Employees Under 50 535.57 534.06 543.93 542.76 533.31 546.94 YoY % Change 3.0% -0.2% 1.5% -0.1% -0.4% 2.4% 50-250 654.38 640.67 620.77 651.69 651.57 635.32 YoY % Change 1.7% 0.1% -1.3% -0.7% -0.4% -0.8% 250 + 824.89 824.35 820.31 824.81 827.98 829.00 YoY % Change 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% Weekly earnings are a useful measure of the performance of a company; as companies perform better they can afford to pay their staff more. It is encouraging that companies with less than 250 employees are not significantly cutting wages but weekly earnings are a long way off those in large companies. In the Construction sector, earnings in companies with less than 50 employees increased by 9.4% YoY in Q2 13 and 2.9% YoY in companies with between 50 and 250 employees. The Retail sector saw a YoY increase of 5.9% in companies with less than 50 employees and 1.3% in companies with between 50 and 250 employees. The Accommodation and Food sector saw a decrease of 4.9% in companies with less than 50 employees but an increase of 3.1% in companies with between 50 and 250 employees. The Professional sector witnessed a decrease of 4.5% in companies with less than 50 employees and 3.1% in companies with between 50 and 250 employees. 2
Figure 7: Employment by Sector YoY % Change Table 7: Employment by Sector (YoY % Change) All sectors -0.9% -1.3% -0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.8% Construction -4.8% -6.4% -6.8% -4.3% -6.8% 3.1% Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.0% -2.3% -1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% Accommodation and Food 6.2% 4.9% 1.7% -1.3% 2.3% 8.0% Real Estate 34.9% 11.1% 2.2% -12.0% -22.3% -18.2%, QNHS The majority of Ireland s SMEs are active in the construction, retail, accommodation and food and real estate sectors. Figure 7 and Table 7 display the YoY percentage changes in the number of people employed in these sectors over the past two years. These sectors have been going through an adjustment period since the economic crisis began., QNHS A 3.1% YoY increase represents the first YoY increase in employment in the construction sector since Q3 07. The real estate sector showed signs of recovery in early 2012 but it has been struggling again recently. Due to the relatively small number of employees, employment changes in this sector can appear inflated. Encouragingly, the retail and accommodation and food sectors appear to have stabilised and have even posted employment gains in Q1 and Q2 2013. Figure 8: Retail Sales Volume Index (2005 = 100) Table 8: Retail Sales Volume Index SA (2005 = 100) Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Retail Sales Index 90.6 91.1 89.5 95.3 93.1 93.6 MoM% Change 0.3% 0.6% -1.8% 6.5% -2.3% 0.5% Index ex. Motor 98.8 99.7 99.7 100.3 100.1 100.2 MoM % Change -0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% -0.2% 0.0% A key determinant of the performance of SMEs in Ireland is the Retail Sales Index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the index has been relatively stagnant for some time now, both including and excluding motor sales. The overall index increased by 0.5% MoM in September 2013. The biggest contributors to this increase were sales of automotive fuel (+3.1%), the sale of Food, Beverages, and Tobacco in specialised stores (+2.2%) and the sale of Hardware, Paints and Glass (+2.1%). The biggest negative contributors were sales of Furniture and Lighting (-6.7%) and sales of books, newspapers and stationary (-2.8%). Motor trades benefitted from a recent change in the number plate system in July as sales increased 36.6% MoM from a very low base. The impact of the change has since dissipated as sales decreased by 5.3% in August and increased by just 0.9% in September. Figure 9: Overseas Visitors to Ireland SA Table 9: Overseas Visitors to Ireland SA (millions) Overseas Visitors SA 1.59 1.64 1.62 1.66 1.66 1.75 QoQ % Change 0.6% 3.1% -1.4% 2.5% -0.2% 5.6% The number of overseas visitors to Ireland can be used as a guide to the performance of the tourism and associated sectors where many SMEs are active in the form of hotels, guesthouses, B&Bs, restaurants, bars and retail outlets. On a seasonally adjusted basis, there were 1.75 million overseas visitors to Ireland in Q2 13 which represents a 5.6% increase on the Q1 13 figure. The figures for 2013 so far are encouraging as increases in visitor numbers coupled with the increase in employment in the Accommodation and Food sectors mentioned earlier suggest the Tourism sector is enjoying a much improved year. A combination of the unusually good weather over the summer months and the Gathering no doubt contributed to this uptick in activity. The introduction of the 9% VAT rate for the Tourism sector in Budget 2013 also encouraged business and its retention in 2014 is welcome news. 3
Figure 10: Industrial Production Index SA (Vol. 2005 = 100) Table 10: Industrial Production Index SA (Vol. 2005 = 100) Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Manuf. industries 108.3 106.4 115.3 107.5 106.2 109.4 MoM % Change 2.6% -1.8% 8.4% -6.8% -1.2% 3.0% Traditional sector 86.7 82.9 88.8 86.7 88.3 87.6 MoM % Change 0.2% -4.4% 7.1% -2.4% 1.8% -0.8% Modern sector 124.4 121.6 129.1 121.2 121.0 124.5 MoM % Change 6.9% -2.3% 6.2% -6.1% -0.2% 2.9% The overall Industrial Production index for manufacturing companies increased 3% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis in September 2013. Production in the Modern sector, which comprises a number of high-technology and chemical sectors, increased by 2.9% compared to August 2013 while the Traditional sector recorded a 0.8% decrease over the same period. As can be seen from Figure 10 and Table 10, the modern sector has been operating at a higher level than the traditional sector for some time now. The Modern sector, while accounting for 57% of the total industrial gross value added (GVA), accounts for only one-third of total industry employment. Figure 11: Services Index (Value 2010 = 100) Table 11: Services Index (Value 2010 = 100) Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Services SA 108.8 108.0 109.2 108.2 106.5 107.3 MoM % Change 1.0% -0.7% 1.1% -0.9% -1.6% 0.8%. Index covers non-financial traded services. The Services index is a value index with 2010 as its base year. Looking at the seasonally adjusted figures, the index, overall, has been quite volatile over the past number of years but the overall trend is increasing. This is a positive indicator for the many SMEs that operate in the services sector. The most recent data for September 2013 show a monthly increase of 0.8% was recorded. This brought the index to 107.3, up from 106.5 in August which was the lowest reading so far in 2013. The biggest positive contributor to the monthly increase was Information and Communication (+7.7%). Some of the biggest negative contributors were Food Service Activities (-9.6%), Administration and Support services (-2.8%), Transport and Storage services (-2%) and Accommodation (-1.6%). Figure 12: Construction Production Index SA (Volume 2005 = 100) Table 12: Construction Production Index SA (Volume 2005 = 100) Building and construction SA 21.6 21.5 21.3 22.6 23.5 23.9 QoQ % Change -7.3% -0.5% -0.9% 6.1% 4.0% 1.7% The seasonally adjusted volume of output in building and construction in the second quarter of 2013 increased by 1.7% over Q1 13 levels. This increase reflects corresponding increases in building, excluding civil engineering (8.0%), residential building (1.3%) and non-residential building (14.9%) which outweighed a 0.5% decrease in civil engineering. This increase in production and the increase in employment in the construction sector mentioned above is welcome news for the many SMEs active in the sector. Recent measures announced in Budget 2014 should also encourage business and production in this sector over the coming year. The Home Renovation Incentive and the planned 2 billion investment by NAMA in particular should benefit the industry, although it is currently operating at a very low base. 4
Figure 13: Food Production Index SA (Vol. 2005 = 100) Table 13: Food Production Index SA (Volume 2005 = 100) Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Food Production Index 95.3 95.0 100.7 97.4 98.2 95.1 MoM % Change -2.5% -0.3% 6.0% -3.3% 0.8% -3.2% The Industrial Production Volume Index for food industries reached 98.2 in August 2013 before slipping back again in September. The index declined by 3.2% in the month of September. The volume of production across all components of the Food Production index, with the exception of Dairy Products, declined in September. The volume of production of dairy products has been performing strongly since January and was 5.8% higher MoM in September. The production volumes for meat products and bakery and farinaceous products declined in the month of September by 4.4% and 3.6% respectively. 4. Lending Indicators Figure 14: New Lending to SMEs ( m) and Rate of Change After a strong increase at the end of 2012, the Food Production index decreased by 11.5% MoM in January 2013. The index has not yet recovered since then and has been quite volatile. The reading of 95.1 in September was 2% lower than the January reading. Table 14: Total New Lending to SMEs ( millions) Total New Lending 287 349 315 520 334 264 YoY % Change -32.0% -21.2% -28.7% 13.8% 16.4% -24.4% Source: Central Bank *Total lending ex Financial Intermediation, Property and Primary Industry lending New lending to SMEs by domestic institutions excluding financial intermediation, property and primary industry related lending totalled 264m in Q2 13. This represents a 24.4% decrease on the same period last year. Source: Central Bank New lending to SMEs in the Construction sector decreased by 86.5% YoY in Q2 13 to just 5 million. Other sectors recording a decrease in the same period were Education (-85.7%), Information and Communication (-75.0%), Human Health and Social Work (-30.4%), Hotels and Restaurants (-24.1%), Business and Admin. Services (-18.8%), Manufacturing (-8.5%) and Wholesale/Retail Trade & Repairs (-6.5%). New lending to SMEs increased YoY in Q2 13 in the Transport and Storage sector (+17.6%) and the Other Community, Social and Personal Services sector (+5.9%). Figure 15: Outstanding Debt ( m) and Rate of Change Table 15: Total Outstanding Debt to SMEs ( millions) Total Outstanding Debt 24,525 24,002 23,626 23,136 22,913 22,560 YoY % Change -0.1% -1.1% -1.1% -7.2% -6.6% -6.0% Source: Central Bank *Total outstanding debt ex Financial Intermediation, Property and Primary Industry lending Outstanding debt of SMEs to credit institutions excluding financial intermediation, property and primary industry related debt totalled 22.6bn in Q2 13. This figure is 6.0% lower than the Q1 13 figure. Total SME debt outstanding has been falling for some time now as a result of SMEs efforts to repair their balance sheets and pay down large debt levels that were amassed during the boom period. Source: Central Bank YoY reductions in the outstanding debt levels of SMEs in Q2 13 were recorded in the Construction sector (-12.2%), Wholesale/Retail Trade & Repairs sector (- 7.7%), Education sector (-7.3%), Transportation and Storage sector (-7.0%), Business and Admin. Services (-6.7%), Hotels and Restaurants (-6.6%) and the Other Community, Social and Personal Services sector (-4.1%). YoY increases in the same period were recorded in the Information & Communications sector (+1.8%) and the Manufacturing sector (+1.1%). 5
IBF SME MARKET MONITOR INDICATOR SOURCE FREQUENCY SEAS ADJ. Sentiment Indicators 1 Consumer Confidence Index ESRI/KBC Monthly No 2 Purchasing Managers Index NCB/Investec Monthly No Macroeconomic Indicators 3 Domestic Demand CSO National Accounts Quarterly Yes 4 Unemployment CSO Quarterly Yes 5 Disposable Income CSO Quarterly Yes Sectoral Indicators 6 Earnings by Sector and Business Size CSO Quarterly No 7 Employment by sector (QNHS) CSO Quarterly No 8 Retail Sales Volume Index CSO Monthly Yes 9 Overseas Visitors CSO Quarterly Yes 10 Industrial Production Index CSO Monthly Yes 11 Services Index CSO Monthly Yes 12 Building and Construction Production Index CSO Quarterly Yes 13 Food Production Volume Index CSO Monthly Yes Lending Indicators 14 Outstanding SME debt by sector Central Bank Quarterly No 15 New Lending to SMEs by sector Central Bank Quarterly No 6