Presented by Mike Adsetts
Agenda Multi management 101 Market performances Portfolio structures and performances
Multi management 101
Multi management 200
The principles
Setting the scene 12 months 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 30-Jun-08 28-Jul-08 25-Aug-08 22-Sep-08 20-Oct-08 17-Nov-08 15-Dec-08 12-Jan-09 09-Feb-09 09-Mar-09 06-Apr-09 04-May-09 01-Jun-09 29-Jun-09 Global Bonds ALSI ALBI STeFI Global Equity SA Listed Property 30.5% 19.3% 11.3% 3.8% -24.9% -32.2%
Setting the scene 3 months 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 31-Mar-09 07-Apr-09 14-Apr-09 21-Apr-09 28-Apr-09 05-May-09 12-May-09 19-May-09 26-May-09 02-Jun-09 09-Jun-09 16-Jun-09 23-Jun-09 30-Jun-09 Global Bonds ALSI ALBI STeFI Global Equity SA Listed Property 8.7% 2.3% 0.3% -0.9% -3.5% -17.4%
The opportunity set market structure 15.00% 300% 10.00% Active outperforms 250% 5.00% 200% 150% 0.00% 100% -5.00% Passive outperforms 50% -10.00% 0% -15.00% -50% Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Active Equity managers - SWIX (12m rolling) Active Equity Managers Cumulative SWIX Cumulative
The opportunity set market breadth 12 months to May 2009 1 MPC 81.5% 30 GRT 22.5% 59 CML 3.7% 88 COM -15.2% 117 AFX -32.2% 146 SSK -47.4% 2 TRU 66.8% 31 APA 22.0% 60 BRN 3.6% 89 Small Cap -15.7% 118 Fledgling -33.4% 147 HLM -49.6% 3 APN 48.8% 32 FPT 21.7% 61 SAC 2.8% 90 TKG -16.8% 119 SOL -33.7% 148 DAW -50.5% 4 FOS 48.2% 33 SA Listed Prop 21.3% 62 MET 2.7% 91 Industrial 25-17.7% 120 GND -35.5% 149 EQS -50.7% 5 CPL 41.3% 34 FBR 20.0% 63 Mid Cap 2.1% 92 AFR -17.9% 121 GRF -35.5% 150 MVL -51.7% 6 LEW 41.0% 35 VKE 19.9% 64 CLH 1.6% 93 IVT -18.1% 122 MVG -35.5% 151 BSR -52.2% 7 SHP 37.0% 36 IPL 19.7% 65 GDF 0.9% 94 ILA -18.6% 123 IMP -35.9% 152 ART -52.2% 8 SUR 35.3% 37 DSY 19.0% 66 ALT 0.5% 95 AVU -19.5% 124 MND -36.0% 153 AGL -55.2% 9 DRD 34.8% 38 TBS 18.9% 67 RMH -1.6% 96 RLO -21.1% 125 KIO -36.5% 154 AMS -56.6% 10 OCE 34.4% 39 PMM 17.7% 68 FSR -1.9% 97 SFN -21.4% 126 ZED -36.5% 155 HVL -56.6% 11 ACP 34.1% 40 MDN 17.0% 69 SNT -1.9% 98 ELE -21.6% 127 HDC -36.6% 156 ARI -56.9% 12 HPB 32.2% 41 HYP 16.5% 70 DDT -2.5% 99 MTN -22.9% 128 CFR -37.0% 157 BDM -57.5% 13 JDG 32.0% 42 MSM 16.5% 71 CAT -3.8% 100 MKL -23.1% 129 Resource 20-37.6% 158 SAP -58.5% 14 ABT 31.0% 43 ABL 15.4% 72 CRM -4.1% 101 TRE -24.2% 130 PHM -37.7% 159 PET -58.7% 15 ANG 29.5% 44 SYC 15.3% 73 NED -4.4% 102 KEH -25.5% 131 ATNP -40.6% 160 ACL -59.4% 16 KGM 29.4% 45 RBW 15.0% 74 APK -5.0% 103 All Share -25.9% 132 CVN -41.0% 161 BAW -62.0% 17 NCL 29.1% 46 SPP 14.9% 75 SLM -5.7% 104 BCX -26.1% 133 UCS -41.3% 162 LBT -62.0% 18 RDF 28.7% 47 GFI 14.8% 76 PPC -8.6% 105 BAT -26.3% 134 MUR -41.4% 163 LON -62.4% 19 APB 28.3% 48 PAP 13.4% 77 BVT -8.9% 106 ADR -26.7% 135 AEG -43.3% 164 MTA -64.5% 20 AXC 27.9% 49 ARL 11.6% 78 INP -9.3% 107 SIM -27.9% 136 OML -43.6% 165 MRF -74.5% 21 RES 27.7% 50 REM 11.4% 79 PSG -10.8% 108 JSE -28.3% 137 PGR -43.6% 166 SNU -74.5% 22 WHL 27.3% 51 NPK 11.1% 80 ILV -11.2% 109 Top 40-28.8% 138 ATN -44.3% 167 BEL -76.4% 23 AVI 26.4% 52 HPA 9.8% 81 Financial 15-11.3% 110 AFE -29.4% 139 DTC -45.2% 168 WEZ -79.4% 24 ASA 25.8% 53 NPN 8.6% 82 LBH -11.3% 111 OMN -30.3% 140 PAM -45.5% 169 TWP -82.6% 25 EMI 24.8% 54 MDC 7.7% 83 INL -11.4% 112 SHF -30.5% 141 EXX -46.6% 170 SPG -89.0% 26 NTC 24.5% 55 OCT 7.4% 84 WBO -12.2% 113 BIL -31.1% 142 RBX -47.0% 171 MTX -90.8% 27 CSB 24.3% 56 HAR 7.4% 85 SUI -13.1% 114 FWD -31.4% 143 NHM -47.2% 28 CMP 23.5% 57 ADH 3.9% 86 TON -13.9% 115 HCI -31.7% 144 DGC -47.2% 29 PIK 23.0% 58 SBK 3.8% 87 SAB -14.1% 116 CLI -31.7% 145 BLU -47.3% Key Size Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Sector Resources Financials Industrials 12 months to 30 June 2009
The opportunity set style Misc Momentum Growth Value 1m to June 09 3m to June 09 12m to June 09 36m to June 09 20 years to June 09 Dividend Yield -3.5% 8.3% 31.0% 12.7% 9.5% Earnings to Price 0.9% 12.1% 12.7% 3.8% 10.1% CF to Price 3.6% 14.2% 19.6% 8.8% 10.3% Sales to Price 1.6% 12.2% 6.4% -1.9% 12.9% BV to Price 2.8% 5.6% -3.8% -7.5% 10.5% EBITDA to EV -1.6% 4.2% 4.8% 5.2% 16.2% EBITDA to Price 4.1% 12.7% 9.6% 1.8% 9.3% Composite Value 6.3% 19.4% 14.6% 3.8% 12.9% Earnings Growth -0.5% -2.8% -2.4% 12.4% 1.4% Sales Growth -0.7% 3.8% 1.4% 14.5% 1.7% R o E 1.5% 5.7% 5.1% 10.5% -0.9% IBES 12m Growth -5.4% -17.0% -12.3% -6.9% -0.4% Composite Growth 0.1% 2.8% 0.2% 13.0% 2.0% M 6mth ST -5.5% -8.2% -3.7% 8.3% 1.7% M 6mth -5.8% -13.3% -13.9% 8.7% 3.4% M 12mth -6.2% -14.9% -15.4% 6.9% 3.9% FY1 Revisions -2.0% -7.3% -11.5% 7.1% 7.5% FY2 Revisions -7.9% -20.4% -17.2% 5.2% 4.7% Market Cap -1.5% 0.9% 8.4% 5.3% -3.9% Beta 8.7% 21.5% 3.7% -1.4% -3.8% Debt to Equity 0.2% -2.1% -5.5% -0.6% -0.5% Income to Sales -1.8% 1.6% 3.3% 13.1% -4.7% Stability of EG 2.3% 3.1% 19.8% 3.8% -3.3% Foreign Exposure -5.1% -9.0% -15.9% 4.9% -1.6%
Momentum multi manager portfolios Momentum MultiManager Aggressive Momentum MultiManager Balanced Momentum MultiManager Money Market Momentum Super Nation Momentum Shari ah Fund
Momentum MultiManager Aggressive Momentum MultiManager Balanced
Portfolio performances to 30 June 2009 Momentum MultiManager Aggressive 3 12 *36 *60 5.96% -9.14% 7.07% 16.55% Benchmark 5.23% -11.38% 6.00% 16.73% Active 0.73% 2.24% 1.07% -0.18% Momentum MultiManager Balanced 5.34% -8.16% 7.53% 16.75% Benchmark 4.64% -9.48% 6.51% 17.16% Active 0.70% 1.32% 1.02% -0.41% * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
The Momentum MultiManager Aggressive and Balanced portfolio manager blend ASSET CLASS MANAGER ALLOCATION LOCAL EQUITY FOORD Value INVESTEC Alpha Transport UMBONO SWIX tracker INVESTEC Momentum LOCAL BONDS RMB RMB Active MOMENTUM: Private Equity FUTURE- GROWTH Infrastructure ADVANTAGE: TAA LOCAL RMB CASH* RMBAM PRESCIENT GLOBAL RMB RMBAMI Equity, Bonds, Cash * manager change effective from Feb 2009
Manager performances: quarter ended 30 June 2009 0.16 0.14 14.1% 0.12 11.1% 0.1 0.08 8.6% 9.5% 7.0% 9.6% 7.5% 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Investec Alpha Transport SWIX 40 Umbono Tracker Foord Equity Investec Equity SWIX Advantage TAA 0.0% Private Equity
Momentum MultiManager Aggressive asset allocation as at 30 June 2009 80% Fulcrum Aggressive Fulcrum Aggressive Benchmark 65.4% 65.0% 60% 40% 20% 0% 14.5% 13.6% 10.4% 10.0% 5.5% 7.4% 0.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% Local Equity Local Bonds Local Cash Global Equity Global Bonds Global Cash
Momentum MultiManager Balanced asset allocation as at 30 June 2009 100% 80% 60% Fulcrum Balanced 62.8% 60.0% Fulcrum Balanced Benchmark 40% 20% 0% 15.6% 18.0% 8.5% 7.0% 6.2% 9.0% 1.5% 4.0% 5.5% 2.0% Local Equity Local Bonds Local Cash Global Equity Global Bonds Global Cash
Momentum MultiManager Money Market
Momentum MultiManager Money Market Prescient 60% 40% RMBAM Optimal combination for both risk and performance
Portfolio performances to 30 June 2009 3 12 *36 *60 Momentum MultiManager Money Market 2.61% 11.20% 10.06% 9.14% Benchmark 2.31% 11.33% 10.05% 8.92% Active 0.30% -0.13% 0.01% 0.22% * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
Momentum Super Nation Momentum Shari ah Fund
Preliminary portfolio performances to 30 June 2009 3 12 Momentum Super Nation 7.13% -6.10% 6.44% 17.75% Benchmark 6.45% -8.70% 5.97% 15.18% Active 0.68% 2.60% 0.47% 2.57% 6 months Momentum Shari ah Fund 6.35% 5.09% Benchmark 6.09% 4.71% Active 0.26% 0.38% *36 *60 * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
Momentum Super Nation and Momentum Shari ah Fund Momentum Super Nation: multi factor Development asset classes Shareholder activism Support black asset managers Triple bottom line - ESG
July Update
Preliminary portfolio performances to 31 July 2009 Momentum MultiManager Aggressive 3 12 *36 *60 11.65% -0.46% 9.04% 17.69% Benchmark 11.74% -2.22% 8.53% 18.03% Active -0.09% 1.76% 0.51% -0.34% Momentum MultiManager Balanced 11.04% -0.06% 9.64% 17.93% Benchmark 10.81% -1.17% 8.80% 18.37% Active 0.23% 1.11% 0.84% -0.44% * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
Preliminary portfolio performances to 31 July 2009 3 12 *36 *60 Momentum MultiManager Money Market 2.49% 10.92% 10.13% 9.14% Benchmark 2.18% 11.02% 10.09% 8.93% Active 0.31% -0.10% 0.04% 0.21% * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
Preliminary portfolio performances to 31 July 2009 3 12 Momentum Super Nation 11.59% 2.63% 8.69% 19.04% Benchmark 11.51% -0.50% 8.20% 16.29% Active 0.08% 3.13% 0.49% 2.75% 6 months Momentum Shari ah Fund 7.69% 9.29% Benchmark 11.39% 13.81% Active -3.70% -4.52% *36 *60 * Annualised Performance figures are nominal, gross and non-annualised (except where indicated otherwise) Given that past performance may not be an indicator of future performance and that the value of investments will fluctuate over time, independent professional advice should always be sought before making an investment decision.
Conclusion Equity markets will remain volatile for next 6 to 12 months Emerging market economies to lead the upturn Portfolios showing resilience Members should stay the course and not lock in losses