China property weekly trend: Vol rose and inventory declined; land sales contracted

Similar documents
Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness

FX Swaps and Forwards

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co

China Property Monthly

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key

In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes

Slack and Monetary Policy

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income

Weekly Property Sales Flash (13-19 February 2012) 20 February 2012

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co

China Property Weekly Digest

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere

China Property Weekly Digest

China Property Sector

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple?

China Property Weekly Digest

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum

Roaring Louder (23 24 June)

Rmb is back in the hot seat

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive

China / Hong Kong China Property Weekly Digest

China Property. China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book. (Issue No. 71) Which cities may loosen further? DBS Group Research. Equity 10 March 2016

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth?

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail?

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research

Company Research HK & China China Overseas Land & Investment(0688.HK) Strong costs control to drive profit margins. Investment highlights

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co

In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)

Industry Flash Note. China Property Sector. China / Hong Kong. Less risk averse stand poses a hidden danger. DBS Group Research.

Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s

Down to Neutral following outperformance

2017 ANNUAL RESULTS PRESENTATION

March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains

China Property. China / Hong Kong Monthly Chart Book. (Issue No. 73) Expect quality large caps to outperform. DBS Group Research. Equity 10 June 2016

Proposed acquisition a milestone for Sunac, to Buy; GT to Neutral

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term

Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive

SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research.

Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research

A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei

Industry Update. Deutsche Bank Markets Research. Industry. China Property. Property. Date 26 April Asia

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts

Global Themes and Risks

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

Europe Telecom Services

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Yuexiu Property (123 HK)

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India

JD.com, Inc. Financial and Operational Highlights. November 2017

PICC Group (1339 HK)

JD.com, Inc. Financial and Operational Highlights. February 2019

Jim O Neill Managing Director Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY

Dim Sum Express. A-Share Market. Other Markets. Equity Research. Dec 11, 2014

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist

China Cement Weekly. March 30, 2015 A Common Theme in Results Briefings: More Equity Stake Acquisition Among the Players in China Cement Sector

All you need to know about the Golden Cross

Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change, 3MMA. Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% QoQ Annualized 70% 10% Infrastructure 50%

China Cement Weekly. June 22, 2015 Meaningful Progress Emerged in Sector Consolidation; Low PBR Stocks Becoming Rare. China Cement Sector

Yuexiu REIT (405 HK)

National real estate sales volume normalize to 2.3% YoY in 2M18. Low inventory level to mitigate the risk of sharp property price correction

BUY. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker 3883.HK 3883 HK HSI 3883

Transcription:

February 27, 217 China: Real Estate Developers China property weekly trend: Vol rose and inventory declined; land sales contracted Equity Research Highlights for the week Vol followed the recovery in the past two weeks, +8% wow/+16% yoy, and 15% higher than the Jan weekly average. Kunming topped the performance with +132% wow/+271% yoy. YRD cities without tightening outperformed, e.g., Ningbo (+65% wow) and Xuzhou (+41% wow). Inventory declined.5% wow and 12m moving average inventory months stood at 8.6 months. Inventory in Ningbo (-4%) and Nanjing (-2%) decreased the most due to strong transaction volume. Land transactions rewound from the rebound in the previous week, with vol/value -35%/-86% wow. Top 1 cities average land sales was Rmb1.9bn (vs Rmb7.5bn last week), led by Zhongshan (Rmb3.5bn), Shanghai (Rmb3.5bn) and Shenyang (Rmb2.9bn). Key news/events 1) MOHURD signaled that it would accelerate legislation for the property tax and rental market. 2) Nanjing announced plans to curb the overheating property market with enhanced ASP guidance for developers. Performance & Valuation Sunac and CMSK were the strongest share price performers in the past week among our offshore and onshore coverage. Our offshore coverage is now trading at an average 46% discount to end- 217E NAV and 1.X 217E P/B, vs. 2H213-214 down-cycle averages of 43% and 1.1X. Our onshore coverage is trading at an average 3% discount and 1.6X 217E P/B, vs. 2H213-214 downcycle averages of 52% and 1.6X. Top picks (CL-Buy): COLI, COGO and Poly (A) with 12m end-17e NAVbased TPs of HK$31., HK$3.7, and Rmb11.6. Vol in the 4th week of Feb increased Avg weekly vol for past 6 months from 215 to-date. 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 (k sqm) 2 years ago 1 year ago Current year -25-24 -23-22 -21-2 -19-18 -17-16 -15-14 -13-12 -11-1 (week) +1 +2 +3 +4-9 -8-7 -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 SUMMARY OF OUR ACTIONABLE STOCK IDEAS Rating LCY End-17E NAV 12-m TP Offshore listed COGO Buy* (HK$) 7.36 3.7 31% COLI Buy* (HK$) 34.44 31. 29% Poly Property (H) Buy (HK$) 9.13 4.2 27% Sino Ocean Buy (HK$) 1.52 4.7 26% Yanlord Buy (S$) 3.46 1.9 25% R&F Buy (HK$) 18.17 12.7 19% CRL Buy (HK$) 33.51 25.1 18% Agile Buy (HK$) 12.51 5.6 14% Longfor Buy (HK$) 27.95 14. 13% Evergrande Sell (HK$) 8.28 3.3-43% Offshore average 25% Onshore listed Poly (A) Buy* (Rmb) 12.94 11.6 23% CFLD Buy (Rmb) n.m. 3.1 17% CMSK Buy (Rmb) 28.9 2. 17% OCT Buy (Rmb) 16. 8.3 13% Gemdale Sell (Rmb) 14.98 11.2-7% Vanke (A) Sell (Rmb) 25.17 17.6-14% * denotes the stock is on our regional Conviction List. Priced as of 27 Feb, 217 market close. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Potential upside/ downside Risks for top picks: Weaker-than-expected sales, deteriorating balance sheets on aggressive land acquisitions and/or macro hard landing. Source: China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), Gao Hua Securities Research. Yi Wang, CFA Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies +86(21)241-893 yi.wang@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Vicky Li +86(21)241-8926 vicky.li@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Scofield Chi +65-6654-5188 scofield.chi@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Doris Chen +65-6654-5182 doris.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research

Primary market: Volume continued to recover while inventory declined Exhibit 1: Weekly average transaction volume (the horizontal dark blue line represents the weekly avg. transaction volume level in the prior week) (k sqm) 9, 36 cities weekly transaction volume 214 215 216 217 (k sqm) 1,4 Tier 1 cities weekly transaction volume 214 215 216 217 8, 7, 6, 1,2 1, 5, 8 4, 3, 2, 1, (months) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 6 4 2 (months) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 (k sqm) 5, Tier 2 cities weekly transaction volume 214 215 216 217 (k sqm) 3,5 Tier 3 cities weekly transaction volume 214 215 216 217 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 3, 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1, 5 (months) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 5 (months) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Source: CREIS. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

Exhibit 2: Ytd transaction volume on median level was -8% yoy among the 24 cities with data available Weekly and ytd transaction volume comparison Cumulative weekly avg vol of Weekly Comparison current month YTD (Jan 2, 217-Feb 26, 217) comparison 22-226 wow yoy vs. 217 Jan 13-226 mom yoy 217 YTD vs 216 vs 215 vs 214 vs 213 vs 212 vs 211 vs 21 (k sqm) (%) (%) (%) (k sqm) (%) (%) (k sqm) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Pan-Bohai Rim & North China Beijing 122 94% 6% 21% 68-33% 3% 675-16% -49% -12% -61% 116% -33% -39% Tianjin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 117-22% -27% 1,22-27% 9% -5% 3% 169% -32% 2% Qingdao 46 11% 48% 11% 279-24% 116% 2,585 82% 76% 99% 1% 361% 11% 184% Dalian 55 48% 64% 56% 32-8% 72% 268 16% -6% -3% -28% 219% -5% -42% Changchun n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 68-19% 41% 616-17% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -1% Jinan 25-15% n.a. 23% 217 7% 314% 1,618 21% 25% n.a. n.a. n.a. -17% n.a. Harbin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 94-22% -1% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Lianyungang 29 8% 4% 51% 197 42% 74% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Yangtze River Delta Region Shanghai 338 24% -34% 54% 21-4% -22% 1,72-47% -38% -4% -2% 26% -18% -3% Nanjing 12 7% -71% -33% 68-56% -65% 878-57% -21% -21% -22% 71% -11% 46% Suzhou 94 3% -68% 8% 5-43% -64% 547-68% -48% -35% -37% -41% -37% 53% Wenzhou 134 13% 68% 42% 112 19% 47% 824 45% 47% 48% 6% 839% 25% 87% Hangzhou 254 35% -1% 49% 149-13% 7% 1,28-16% -1% 31% 15% n.a. 27% n.a. Ningbo 142 65% 51% 168% 72 37% 61% 5-1% 3% -8% -25% 53% -33% 3% Xuzhou 299 41% 24% 9% 282 3% 54% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Yangzhou 1-5% 59% 9% 82-11% 46% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Southern China Shenzhen 2-4% -94% -56% 17-61% -86% 249-76% -75% -26% -62% -2% -48% -41% Guangzhou 263 6% 37% 45% 175-4% 72% 1,426 17% 11% 42% -18% 13% -1% 26% Fuzhou 32-11% -44% 62% 27 35% -21% 186-34% -48% -36% -51% 39% -37% -51% Sanya 149-1% 125% 76% 13 54% 162% 858 86% 161% 189% 96% 256% 113% 36% Xiamen n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 12-22% -37% 119-34% -54% -83% -84% -49% -71% -54% Dongguan 52-6% -76% -28% 38-48% -58% 441-73% -49% -3% -44% 37% -46% -24% Huizhou 45-9% -5% -27% 3-5% -34% 364-45% -2% 3% -15% n.a. -11% n.a. Haikou 134-6% 25% -8% 118-19% 68% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Shantou 98 28% 155% 82% 69 28% 25% 49 131% 358% 183% 135% 317% 154% 388% Central & Western China Chengdu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 37-69% -59% 679-32% -44% -42% -53% -6% -74% -36% Changsha 185 n.a. -29% -19% 179-22% 22% 1,58 22% -35% -15% -19% 52% 18% -21% Nanchang 126-2% 16% 8% 18-8% 76% 898 71% 15% -43% 44% 153% 18% 186% Guiyang n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 51-19% 2% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Baotou 53 22% 12% 31% 31-24% 17% 283 25% -16% 44% 37% 46% -25% -29% Chongqing n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 335-39% 35% 3,667 7% 8% 85% 13% 17% 65% 37% Wuhan 45 32% -93% -86% 35-89% -9% 285 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -81% -9% -87% Hefei n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 47-22% -63% 479-61% -51% -64% -65% n.a. -77% -74% Kunming 222 132% 271% 19% 11-41% 189% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Bengbu 54-52% -38% -1% 86 43% 51% 48 34% 77% 42% 38% n.a. 184% 382% Xi'an 263-28% 5% -3% 216-2% 6% 1,944 17% 1% 83% 53% 226% 35% 56% Median 13 8% 16% 15% 84-2% 38% 675-8% -6% -5% -19% 71% -14% -1% Tier 1 743 15% -14% 33% 47-14% -17% 4,7-31% -43% -8% -4% 65% -26% -21% Tier 2 1,552 21% -1% 8% 1,638-36% -1% 15,893-17% -15% -21% -19% 62% -17% -16% Tier 3 1,948-2% 32% 19% 1,835-5% 44% 7,178 25% 3% 42% 37% 219% -5% 44% Up cities 16 16 19 9 23 13 12 11 11 18 1 13 Down cities 11 11 9 27 13 15 15 15 15 5 18 13 Note: GFA numbers indicated in Hangzhou, Haikou, Kunming, Harbin, Yangzhou, and Lianyungang are for commodity properties; for others, the numbers refer to residential properties. Source: CREIS. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3

Exhibit 3: Ytd ASP increased 19% yoy among the 14 cities with data available Weekly Comparison YTD (Jan 2, 217-Feb 26, 217) comparison 22-226 wow yoy vs. 217 Jan 217 YTD vs 216 vs 215 vs 214 vs 213 vs 212 vs 211 vs 21 (Rmb/sqm) (%) (%) (%) (Rmb/sqm) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Pan-Bohai Rim & North China Beijing 4,76-15% 22% 2% 41,33 31% 53% 48% 82% 117% 57% 113% Tianjin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 15,572 33% 38% 59% 56% 7% 74% 73% Dalian 11,56-5% -4% -12% 11,768-4% 5% 13% 18% -6% -5% 28% Yangtze River Delta Region Shanghai 19,981-6% -22% -27% 24,176-2% 3% 35% 37% 89% 55% 92% Hangzhou 18,663 5% 16% -12% 2,385 22% 27% 27% 15% n.a. 15% n.a. Ningbo 15,543-4% 19% -6% 16,284 21% 27% 28% 37% 9% 14% 43% Southern China Shenzhen 55,215 6% 24% 1% 54,467 16% 14% 137% 172% 223% 171% 133% Guangzhou 16,655 11% 1% -1% 16,598 6% 13% 41% 22% 42% 42% 42% Sanya 23,352-7% 29% % 23,74 36% 15% -6% 1% -3% 1% % Dongguan 14,444-9% 34% -7% 15,727 38% 73% 73% 82% 83% 92% 99% Shantou 8,271 1% 13% 7% 7,94 7% 17% -2% -7% 26% 39% 5% Central & Western China Changsha 8,66 n.a. 37% 19% 7,715 23% 37% 21% 33% 37% 43% 74% Baotou 5,52 3% 13% 5% 5,371 8% 7% -4% 1% 17% 2% 37% Chongqing n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7,779 18% 21% 12% 18% 25% 14% 53% Bengbu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,638 2% 4% 5% 4% 5% 22% 39% Xi'an 6,975-7% 8% -1% 7,439 13% 2% -1% 6% 14% 18% 41% Median 14,994-4% 16% % 13,75 19% 3% 32% 35% 52% 42% 66% Up cities 6 11 7 23 24 21 22 22 25 24 Down cities 7 2 7 5 3 6 4 3 3 2 Note: GFA numbers indicated in Hangzhou are for commodity properties; for others, the numbers refer to residential properties. Source: CREIS. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4

Exhibit 4: Major cities inventory months and total inventory breakdown by tiers (Months) Tier 1 inventory (RHS) Selective tier 3 inventory (RHS) Selective tier 2 inventory (RHS) Tier 1 inventory months (LHS) (mn sqm) 25 Selective tier 2 inventory months (LHS) Selective tier 3 inventory months (LHS) 16 2 14 12 15 1 8 1 6 5 4 2 Note: (1) Inventory months are calculated as sellable GFA divided by 12-m rolling GFA sold. (2) Tier 1 cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Selective tier 2 cities include Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao. Selective tier 3 cities include Dongguan, Hefei, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Bengbu, Fuzhou and Huizhou. Source: CREIS, Gao Hua Securities Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

Valuation: -9%/-2% vs. 2H213-214 downcycle mean for off/onshore coverage on P/B Exhibit 5: Offshore developers existing NAV discount Exhibit 6: Onshore developers existing NAV discount % Offshore share price discount to NAV Average Avg+1 std Avg-1 std 213H2-214 Avg 1% Onshore share price discount to NAV Average Avg+1 std Avg-1 std 213H2-214 Avg -1% % -2% -1% -3% -2% -4% -3% -5% -4% -6% -5% -7% -6% -8% -7% Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Exhibit 7: Offshore developers P/B Exhibit 8: Onshore developers P/B 2.5 12mth trailing P/B(x) Average Avg+1std Avg-1std 3.5 12mth trailing P/B(x) Average Avg+1 std Avg-1 std 213H2-214 avg 2. 3. 2.5 1.5 2. 1. 1.5 1..5.5.. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Source: Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

Exhibit 9: China developers valuation comparison Company Ticker Mkt Cap (US$ bn) Price as of Potential upside/ downside (%) Target price disc. to NAV Shr price (disc)/ prem to NAV FD Core P/E (x) P/B (exclude revaluation gain) (x) Dividend yield (%) 12 mth End-17 Rating 27/Feb/17 Price target NAV 16E 17E 18E 19E 16E 17E 18E 19E 16E 17E 18E 19E Hong Kong listed Agile 3383.HK 2.5 Buy 4.9 (HK$) 5.6 14-55% 12.51 (61) 5.9 4.9 4.7 5.1.5.5.5.5 6.9 8.6 9.2 8.5 China Vanke (H) 222.HK 3.3 Neutral 19.62 (HK$) 19. (3) -3% 26.78 (27) 9.4 8. 7.2 7.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 4.9 5.8 6.6 6.7 COGO 81.HK.8 Buy* 2.83 (HK$) 3.7 31-5% 7.36 (62) 5.8 4.8 4.2 4..6.6.5.4.... COLI 688.HK 33.8 Buy* 24.5 (HK$) 31. 29-1% 34.44 (3) 7.6 6.2 6.3 6.2 1.2 1..9.8 3.3 4. 4. 4. CRL 119.HK 18.9 Buy 21.25 (HK$) 25.1 18-25% 33.51 (37) 8.9 7.8 7.3 7.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1. 3.2 3.6 3.9 4. CG 27.HK 15.1 Neutral 5.52 (HK$) 4.8 (13) -3% 7.38 (25) 9.9 7.8 7.1 6. 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 3.1 4. 4.5 5.3 Evergrande 3333.HK 1.2 Sell 5.8 (HK$) 3.3 (43) -6% 8.28 (3) 11.1 13.4 11.6 11.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 9.3 7.9 9.3 9.6 China Jinmao 817.HK 3.3 Neutral 2.43 (HK$) 2.54 5-4% 4.23 (42) 8.8 7.6 7.1 6.7 1..9.8.8 3.8 4.4 4.7 5. Greentown 39.HK 1.9 Neutral 6.96 (HK$) 7.6 9-5% 14.43 (52) 7.5 6.6 6.6 6.7.7.6.6.5.... R&F 2777.HK 4.4 Buy 1.68 (HK$) 12.7 19-3% 18.17 (41) 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.4.9.8.8.7 8.2 9. 9.2 9.6 Joy City 27.HK 2.2 Neutral 1.19 (HK$) 1.2 1-45% 2.11 (44) 25.6 17.2 14.1 13.1.8.8.8.8 4.6 1.5 1.9 2. KWG 1813.HK 1.9 Neutral 4.93 (HK$) 5.2 5-45% 9.45 (48) 4.6 4.4 4.1 4..7.6.6.5 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.7 Longfor 96.HK 9.3 Buy 12.42 (HK$) 14. 13-5% 27.95 (56) 7.8 7.5 7.3 8.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. 3.8 4.1 4.3 3.6 Poly Property (H) 119.HK 1.5 Buy 3.3 (HK$) 4.2 27-7% 9.13 (64) n.m. 43.4 29.7 26.2.5.5.5.5.... Red Star Macalline 1528.HK 3.8 Neutral 8.28 (HK$) 8.8 6-35% 13.34 (38) 9.6 9.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 Shimao 813.HK 4.8 Neutral 11.1 (HK$) 12.8 15-55% 28.35 (61) 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3.8.7.7.6 5.9 6.1 6. 6. Shui On Land 272.HK 1.8 Neutral 1.73 (HK$) 2.1 21-55% 4.77 (64) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m..4.4.4.4 3.1 1.8 1.9 2. Sino Ocean 3377.HK 3.6 Buy 3.74 (HK$) 4.7 26-55% 1.52 (64) 7. 5.6 5.2 4.6.6.6.6.5 4. 5.2 5.7 6.4 SOHO China 41.HK 2.7 Neutral 4.6 (HK$) 4.2 3-45% 7.63 (47) 36.7 26.9 21.4 19.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 11. 3.8 5. 5.5 Sunac 1918.HK 4. Neutral 8.15 (HK$) 7.3 (1) -45% 13.22 (38) 29. 13.8 5.9 5.4 1.2 1.2 1..9.8 1.5 3.6 3.9 HK listed average 9 (46) 8.9 7.4 6.5 6.4 1. 1..9.9 4.5 4.3 4.7 4.9 A-share listed CMSK 1979.SZ 18.4 Buy 17.12 (Rmb) 2. 17-3% 28.9 (39) 15.8 13.1 1.8 1.3 2.6 2.3 2. 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.8 CFLD 634.SS 11. Buy 25.62 (Rmb) 3.1 17 n.m. n.m. n.m. 11.7 9.1 7.2 6.1 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.4.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 Gemdale 6383.SS 7.9 Sell 12.9 (Rmb) 11.2 (7) -25% 14.98 (19) 17.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 OCT 69.SZ 8.7 Buy 7.35 (Rmb) 8.3 13-5% 16. (54) 12.3 11.2 1.2 9.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1. 1. 1.1 1.2 1.2 Poly (A) 648.SS 16.2 Buy* 9.44 (Rmb) 11.6 23-1% 12.94 (27) 8.2 6.5 6.3 5.9 1.2 1.1 1..9 3.2 3.8 4. 4. SMC 6823.SS 2.8 Neutral 7.26 (Rmb) 7. (4) -25% 9.34 (22) 9. 9.5 9.5 1.3 1..9.8.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Vanke (A) 2.SZ 28.9 Sell 2.52 (Rmb) 17.6 (14) -3% 25.17 (18) 11.3 9.1 8. 7.9 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 4. 4.9 5.6 5.6 Onshore average 1 (3) 1.7 9.1 8.3 8.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 Singapore listed Yanlord YNLG.SI 2.4 Buy 1.52 (S$) 1.9 25-45% 3.46 (56) 8.6 6.9 6.6 6.9.8.8.7.6 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 Simple average of above 1 (45) 11.6 1.7 9.1 8.7 1.2 1.1 1..9 3.8 3.7 4. 4.1 (1) *denotes the stock is on our Conviction List. (2) Our 12-month target prices are based on end-217e NAV for our coverage universe except for RSM, which is based on SOTP given it is not a developer, and Greentown, Poly Property (H), for which our TP is a blend of our fundamental valuation (based on end-217e NAV) and theoretical M&A value. We derive M&A values based on the mean multiple implied by recent M&A deals, with the multiple adjusted for a premium/discount (P/B-ROE vs. sector), detailed in our report Poly H: Assessing asset value crystallization from possible M&A; up to Buy published Feb 3, 217. (3) Average P/E does not include SOHO, Poly (H), Joy City and Shui On Land, which are outliers. Source: Company data, Datastream, Gao Hua Securities Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7

Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Yi Wang, CFA and Vicky Li, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Yi Wang, CFA: A-share Property, China Property. Vicky Li: A-share Property, China Property. A-share Property: CFLD, China Merchants Shekou Inds Zone, China Vanke (A), Gemdale Corp., Poly Real Estate Group, Shanghai Shimao Co., Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town. China Property: Agile Property Holdings, China Evergrande Group, China Jinmao Holdings, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, China Overseas Land, China Resources Land, China Vanke (H), Country Garden Holdings, Greentown China Holdings, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Joy City Property Ltd., KWG Property Holding, Longfor Properties Co., Poly Property Group, Red Star Macalline Group, Shimao Property, Shui On Land, Sino-Ocean Land Holdings, SOHO China, Sunac China Holdings, Yanlord Land. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HK$2.83) and China Overseas Land (HK$24.5) Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HK$2.83) and China Overseas Land (HK$24.5) Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HK$2.83) and China Overseas Land (HK$24.5) Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (HK$2.83), China Overseas Land (HK$24.5) and Poly Real Estate Group (Rmb9.44) Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: China Overseas Land (HK$24.5) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global Equity coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8

Global 32% 54% 14% 64% 6% 51% As of January 1, 217, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,92 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by the FINRA Rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. The Investment Banking Relationships chart reflects the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom Goldman Sachs has provided investment banking services within the previous twelve months. Price target and rating history chart(s) Poly Real Estate Group (648.SS) Stock Price Currency : Chinese Renminbi China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (81.HK) Stock Price Currency : Hong Kong Dollar Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 6, 14. 1.7 11.3 5,5 12. 11 11 13.4 5, 1. 7.53 7.5 4,5 8. 4, 6. 3,5 4. 13.1 3, 2. 13.3 12.9 2,5 12.2. 2, B F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 214 215 216 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 12/31/216. Rating Covered by Yi Wang, CFA Price target Stock Price Index Price Stock Price Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 8. 16, 6.6 5.4 15, 7. 5.9 3.6 14, 6. 5.5 13, 2.66 12, 5. 2.78 3.3 11, 3.4 2.7 1, 4. 9, 7.1 6 3. 8, 7.7 5 7, 2. 6, Apr 16 Aug 1 N B N F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 214 215 216 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 12/31/216. Rating Oct 21, 216 to B from N Covered by Vicky Li Price target Index Price Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst Shanghai - Shenzhen 3 Hang Seng China Ent. Index The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. China Overseas Land (688.HK) Stock Price Currency : Hong Kong Dollar Stock Price Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 4 16, 26.4 32.3 32.6 15, 38.8 35 26.4 3.7 14, 37.6 29.2 29.5 13, 38.7 3 25.4 12, 35.4 11, 25 1, 9, 2 8, 27.3 7, 15 6, Oct 4 N B F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 214 215 216 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 12/31/216. Rating Covered by Yi Wang, CFA Price target Index Price Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst Hang Seng China Ent. Index The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9

business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. is an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and therefore is included in the company specific disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs (as defined above). Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research report in Canada if and to the extent that Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. disseminates this research report to its clients. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited, Research Analyst - SEBI Registration Number INH1493, 951-A, Rational House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 4 25, India, Corporate Identity Number U7414MH26FTC16634, Phone +91 22 6616 9, Fax +91 22 6616 91. Goldman Sachs may beneficially own 1% or more of the securities (as such term is defined in clause 2 (h) the Indian Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956) of the subject company or companies referred to in this research report. Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 28) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 19862165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 23/125/EC is available at http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho 69, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 1%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 6 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by either Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. or Goldman, Sachs & Co.; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 19862165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1

European Union: Goldman Sachs International authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG and Goldman Sachs International Zweigniederlassung Frankfurt, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analyst's published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analyst's fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs. Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data available on a particular security, please contact your sales representative or go to http://36.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 2 West Street, New York, NY 1282. 217 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11