Sensex (35536) / Nifty (10806) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart It was a good week of trade for the market participants as we saw a decent gradual recovery throughout the week from the 10600 mark. But, if we try to analyze it thoroughly, we only saw positive moves in terms of the index or few key heavyweights. Broadly, we can conclude it was a terrible week for so many counters especially from the midcap universe that have been hammered brutally during the week. On the other hand, Friday s late surge enabled Nifty reclaiming the 10800 mark ahead of the Karnataka election verdict. May be some hopes have been built from the traders fraternity on BJP becoming victorious in this crucial battle. From a technical point of view, surpassing this stiff hurdle of 10800 certainly bodes well for the bulls. So, if we have to keep this event aside and make a judgment only on the basis of charts, we may see continuation of the ongoing momentum towards 10860 10900 levels. As we all know, predicting such events can be as difficult as nailing the jelly to a tree. Hence, we do not want make any comment in this regards. But, in our sense, we would see some kind of profit taking at higher levels post the event in case of a favorable outcome as well. On the downside, 10690 followed by 10600 would be seen as key supports. A sustainable move below these points would apply brakes on the ongoing optimism. Hence, traders need to be prepared for all kind of possibilities and should ideally position themselves accordingly. Considering the stock specific destruction in the week gone, traders need to be very agile when it comes to a stock picking. In the initial part of this week, it s advisable to stay light and keep assessing how market behaves for a day or two post the key political event. Key Levels Support 1 10690 Resistance 1 10860 Support 2 10640 Resistance 2 10900 Nifty Bank Outlook - (26413) Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart During last week, the Nifty Bank index outperformed the Nifty as the index heavyweights from the banking space moved higher in spite of consolidation in the broader markets. The Nifty Bank index gained about 3% during the week led by ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and SBI. In Friday's session, the index continued it s up move and has closed above the gap resistance which we had mentioned as the probable target zone in our earlier reports. While this indicates that the trend continues to be positive, the midcap banking space has clearly underperformed in this up move. Hence, traders should be very specific in picking stocks for trading and should ride the trend with the outperformers. The near-term supports for the Nifty Bank index are placed around 26260 and 26050 whereas resistances are seen around 26660 and 26780. Key Levels Support 1 26260 Resistance 1 26660 Support 2 26050 Resistance 2 26780
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 4.20% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 6.12% as market closed at 10806.50 levels. The Nifty May future closed with a premium of 13.60 points against a premium of 8.35 points in last trading session. The June series closed at a premium of 21.30 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 14.42 to 13.97. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has increased from 1.57 to 1.66 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are MCX, JPASSOCIAT, GMRINFRA, SUNTV and RCOM. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 325 crores. In index futures segment, they were net buyers of Rs. 864 crores with good amount of rise in, indicating formation of fresh longs on Friday s session. In index options front, they were sellers of Rs. 623 crores with marginal change in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are concerned, we hardly saw any relevant build-up call options; however, some unwinding was seen in 10700 and 10900 strikes. On the other side, 10500-10800 put option added good amount of positions. The highest open interest concentration for current series stands firmly at 11000 call and 10500 put options. As anticipated last week, the benchmark index rallied from the support zone of 10600-10650 and surpassed the important hurdle of 10800 mark on Friday. In index futures, we saw fresh long formation in Nifty as well as BankNifty. At the same time, FIIs too added long positions in index and stock futures. Meanwhile, they also added fresh longs in index call options along with writing in index put options. The above F&O data remains positive and thus, we expect continuation of ongoing momentum towards next milestone of 11000 mark. Gainers AMBUJACEM 15642500 11.24 217.15-1.40 PTC 27296000 10.35 98.00 4.17 ACC 2088800 8.72 1466.55-1.58 BERGEPAINT 1775400 8.61 277.15 4.14 IDEA 173012000 8.37 51.40-11.76 JUSTDIAL 4247600 7.78 421.90-1.21 ASIANPAINT 5778600 7.63 1286.45 6.24 UBL 1227800 7.02 1112.25 1.45 Losers ORIENTBANK 18498000-27.22 82.65-0.18 GLENMARK 5897800-25.96 515.70 0.16 KAJARIACER 1912000-14.46 539.40 0.85 UJJIVAN 7376000-13.00 407.95 0.70 VOLTAS 3661000-10.29 618.00 2.43 PCJEWELLER 8277000-9.90 200.85-4.06 INDIANB 4374000-9.48 318.05 1.50 IGL 8217000-8.71 266.50 1.17 Historical Volatility HV IDEA 72.16 ASIANPAINT 35.49 BHARTIARTL 42.45 NESTLEIND 39.46 TATACOMM 29.94 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.66 1.18 BANKNIFTY 1.05 0.75 INFY 0.63 0.47 ICICIBANK 1.44 0.85 TATAMOTORS 0.49 0.45
FII Statistics for May 11, 2018 Turnover on May 11, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 2579.08 1715.49 863.59 205485 17515.66 12.35 45282.39 45905.69 (623.30) 819488 68692.03 2.51 8848.58 8288.32 560.26 1200474 83966.72 0.97 5662.87 5812.72 (149.85) 123634 8795.34 6.24 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 183319 16542.37 16.29 3081986 288954.10-72.52 706944 45415.34-1.09 539190 36199.80 5.38 Total 62372.92 61722.21 650.70 2349081 178969.74 2.69 TOTAL 4511439 387111.61-66.22 Nifty Spot = 10716.55 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10800 137.95 Sell 10900 84.85 53.10 46.90 10853.10 Buy 10800 122.55 Sell 10700 88.55 34.00 66.00 10766.00 Buy 10800 137.95 Sell 11000 46.05 91.90 108.10 10891.90 Buy 10800 122.55 Sell 10600 62.55 60.00 140.00 10740.00 Buy 10900 84.85 Sell 11000 46.05 38.80 61.20 10938.80 Buy 10700 88.55 Sell 10600 62.55 26.00 74.00 10674.00 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (May Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 409 411 413 415 416 ASIANPAINT 1,207 1,247 1,269 1,309 1,331 AXISBANK 541 547 552 558 563 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,776 2,796 2,820 2,840 2,864 BAJFINANCE 1,804 1,833 1,857 1,885 1,909 BAJAJFINSV 5,205 5,275 5,320 5,390 5,435 BPCL 385 392 396 403 408 BHARTIARTL 369 378 390 399 411 INFRATEL 312 316 319 323 327 CIPLA 558 566 573 581 589 COALINDIA 268 270 271 272 274 DRREDDY 1,932 1,961 1,989 2,019 2,047 EICHERMOT 30,358 30,615 30,883 31,140 31,408 GAIL 334 338 342 346 349 GRASIM 1,071 1,086 1,097 1,112 1,124 HCLTECH 927 930 934 937 941 HDFCBANK 1,974 1,993 2,005 2,024 2,036 HDFC 1,893 1,907 1,914 1,927 1,935 HEROMOTOCO 3,557 3,588 3,621 3,652 3,685 HINDALCO 237 240 242 244 246 HINDPETRO 303 311 316 324 329 HINDUNILVR 1,478 1,491 1,498 1,512 1,519 IBULHSGFIN 1,194 1,217 1,232 1,255 1,270 ICICIBANK 306 308 310 313 314 IOC 166 167 170 172 175 INDUSINDBK 1,864 1,879 1,889 1,904 1,913 INFY 1,160 1,170 1,177 1,187 1,194 ITC 278 281 282 285 287 KOTAKBANK 1,238 1,253 1,263 1,277 1,287 LT 1,355 1,371 1,380 1,397 1,406 LUPIN 735 744 753 761 770 M&M 840 854 864 878 888 MARUTI 8,676 8,713 8,739 8,776 8,802 NTPC 165 166 168 170 172 ONGC 185 186 188 189 190 POWERGRID 204 206 207 209 210 RELIANCE 973 981 986 994 1,000 SBIN 244 247 249 253 255 SUNPHARMA 450 461 479 490 507 TCS 3,419 3,438 3,461 3,480 3,504 TATAMOTORS 328 329 332 333 336 TATASTEEL 584 595 603 615 622 TECHM 647 657 664 674 682 TITAN 927 941 967 981 1,006 ULTRACEMCO 3,925 3,998 4,042 4,115 4,158 UPL 716 726 733 742 749 VEDANTA 276 281 284 290 293 WIPRO 266 269 272 275 277 YESBANK 338 344 348 354 358 ZEEL 576 585 592 600 607
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