Down to Neutral following outperformance

Similar documents
Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises

FX Swaps and Forwards

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral

In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple?

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors

Slack and Monetary Policy

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day

Roaring Louder (23 24 June)

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health

SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research.

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth?

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail?

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research

Europe Telecom Services

Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth

Merger synergies and high prices not discounted; Upgrading to Buy

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive

BUY. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model

Hong Kong: Telecom Services

March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data

3QFY09 revenues in line but adjusted margins beat KIE. No changes in estimates for FY E

Rmb is back in the hot seat

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY

Air France-KLM. Hold TP 6.50 CP 7.59 (Close 21 October 2013) Q3 due 31 October More restructuring needed. Equity Research Quick Bite Preview

A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist

This research has been prepared by Merrill Lynch as part of its services to its clients, and is intended to be used only by those clients when

Jim O Neill Managing Director Head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India

Transforming into O2O marketing; execution is key; Buy

In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early

Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s

Europe Energy: Oil - Refining

Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive

Global Themes and Risks

Eclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.

Video March 1, StratTV at the TMT Conference. Watch the video: Related Research

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Equity Research. Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL: Reduce FQ1 For Higher Restructuring; Savings To Offset. Outperform. November 16, 2015

Platinum Asset Management

Very solid Q3; excellent story, but priced in; TP upped to 60.00; downgrade to neutral. Q3 2016: Very solid quarter, better than expected

DBIQ Update DBLCI - OY Roll Report - January 2008

BUY SREI (SREI) Banks/Financial Institutions

Agriculture Update. Global. Food versus feed in the wheat market. Commodities Research. Sharp decline in corn supplies requires more wheat feeding

All you need to know about the Golden Cross

KDDL (KDDL IN) In expansion mode

Equity Research. Cummins Inc. CMI: Headwinds Continue Adjusting Estimates & Maintain Market Perform. Market Perform.

Pico Far East Holdings Limited

Seek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation

Release Date Conference Call Time (Eastern) Contact Co. Guidance Consensus May 9 May 10 8:30am TBA NA $0.29

Jun-06. Jul-06. May-06. JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)(Formerly known as J.P. Morgan Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.)

Globe Union Industrial Corp

Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)

Session 3 : Quelle gouvernance pour quelle croissance en Europe?

Philip Morris International Inc.

Advanced Vision Techn Buy

Transcription:

ACTION Removed from Pan-Europe Buy List Down to Neutral following outperformance Equity Research What happened We downgrade Ryanair to Neutral from Buy on outperformance. Our unchanged 12-month price target of 12.7 implies 7% upside potential vs. average upside of 13% for our sector coverage. We expect Ryanair s continued cost discipline (flat FY16 unit costs excl. fuel) and improving load factors (FY16 up 160 bp) to deliver 15% net income growth in FY16, despite weaker yields (avg fares -2%). However, we expect ongoing capacity growth to result in declining earnings and returns in FY18E. Since being added to the Buy List on December 4, 2012, the shares are up 144% vs. the FTSE World Europe up 45% and our Transport, Travel & Leisure coverage up 66%. Current view Our investment thesis on Ryanair is unchanged. We expect the growth strategy, focused on building frequency on key routes, to improve its network quality. Further, we expect its strong competitive positioning (superior unit costs and balance sheet strength) to allow it to benefit from ongoing market share gains in the current weaker yield environment. We see a structural growth opportunity of 3%-5% pa for European LCCs to take share from legacy carriers. That said, our valuation implies limited upside potential from here as we expect Ryanair s returns and earnings to fade in CY17, driven by EBIT margin compression from planned capacity growth (in line with history), likely without any further tailwind from improving load factors. Indeed, Ryanair has never achieved EBIT margin expansion when capacity growth has been above 6.5 mn seats pa (excl. FY10 when fuel costs fell 30%). Our 12-month returns-based price target of 12.7 is unchanged (implies 7% upside), with only minor estimate changes after the FY15 results. The stock trades on a CY16E P/E of 13.9x, which we see as consistent with its strong returns (CY16E CROCI: 21%) and an 8% EPS CAGR (CY15-17E). Key risks: Stronger/weaker demand, faster/slower industry capacity growth, execution risk on brand and repositioning, fuel and FX volatility. Investment Profile Low Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Europe Transport, Travel & Leisure Peer Group Average High Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Price ( ) 11.83 12 month price target ( ) 12.70 Upside/(downside) (%) 7 Market cap ( mn) 17,490.3 Enterprise value ( mn) 16,300.4 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E Revenue ( mn) New 5,654.0 6,156.9 6,224.4 6,580.8 Revenue revision (%) (0.7) 2.0 2.5 3.0 EBIT ( mn) New 1,038.7 1,188.3 1,321.2 1,166.2 EBIT revision (%) (5.7) (3.4) (0.6) (6.0) EPS ( ) New 0.63 0.75 0.89 0.82 EPS ( ) Old 0.66 0.76 0.87 0.86 EV/EBITDA (X) 8.3 10.2 8.8 9.0 P/E (X) 13.0 15.8 13.3 14.4 Dividend yield (%) 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCF yield (%) 7.9 4.7 6.0 6.4 CROCI (%) 20.5 20.5 20.7 18.2 Price performance chart 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Ryanair (L) FTSE World Europe (EUR) (R) 560 530 500 470 440 410 380 INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Neutral Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 16.8 38.2 61.6 Rel. to FTSE World Europe (EUR) 12.9 18.7 37.6 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 5/28/2015 close. Coverage View: Neutral Monique Pollard Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies +44(20)7774-5489 monique.pollard@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Nick Edelman +44(20)7552-3625 nick.edelman@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Hilary Burke +44(20)7552-5993 hilary.burke@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alexia Dogani +44(20)7552-2834 alexia.dogani@gs.com Goldman Sachs International covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research

Ryanair: Summary Financials Profit model ( mn) 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E Balance sheet ( mn) 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E Total revenue 5,654.0 6,156.9 6,224.4 6,580.8 Cash & equivalents 4,795.9 4,686.9 4,719.4 4,866.9 Operating costs (4,124.0) (4,440.0) (4,326.5) (4,776.6) Accounts receivable 199.6 217.4 219.7 232.3 R&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Lease payments (109.4) (120.8) (142.1) (165.9) Other current assets 744.4 744.4 744.4 744.4 Other operating profit/(expense) (4.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 5,742.0 5,650.8 5,685.6 5,845.7 EBITDA 1,416.4 1,596.1 1,755.8 1,638.3 Net PP&E 6,072.4 6,519.0 6,765.7 7,109.7 Depreciation & amortisation (377.7) (407.9) (434.7) (472.1) Net intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 1,038.7 1,188.3 1,321.2 1,166.2 Total investments 371.0 371.0 371.0 371.0 Net interest income/(expense) (56.3) (60.7) (60.8) (60.4) Other long-term assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total assets 12,185.4 12,540.8 12,822.3 13,326.4 Profit/(loss) on disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others (recurring) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 196.5 196.5 196.5 196.5 Pretax profits 982.4 1,127.6 1,260.3 1,105.8 Short-term debt 399.6 399.6 399.6 399.6 Income tax (115.7) (132.8) (148.4) (130.2) Other current liabilities 1,994.0 2,148.2 2,104.8 2,328.0 Tax rate (%) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 Total current liabilities 2,590.1 2,744.3 2,700.9 2,924.1 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long-term debt 4,032.0 4,032.0 4,032.0 4,032.0 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other long-term liabilities 1,528.2 1,584.6 1,647.6 1,702.9 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 866.7 994.8 1,111.9 975.6 Total long-term liabilities 5,560.2 5,616.6 5,679.6 5,734.9 Other non-recurring items post tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total liabilities 8,150.3 8,360.9 8,380.5 8,659.0 Net income 866.7 994.8 1,111.9 975.6 EPS (underlying) ( ) 0.63 0.75 0.89 0.82 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic, reported) ( ) 0.63 0.75 0.89 0.82 Total common equity 4,035.1 4,179.9 4,441.8 4,667.4 Weighted shares outstanding (mn) 1,384.7 1,328.0 1,253.2 1,187.3 Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Common dividends declared 520.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total liabilities & equity 12,185.4 12,540.8 12,822.3 13,326.4 DPS ( ) 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 Capitalised leases 765.8 845.5 994.5 1,161.1 Dividend payout ratio (%) 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed 8,466.7 8,611.5 8,873.4 9,099.0 Dividend cover (X) 1.7 NM NM NM Growth & margins (%) 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E Adj for unfunded pensions & GW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revenue growth 12.3 8.9 1.1 5.7 Adj capital employed 8,466.7 8,611.5 8,873.4 9,099.0 EBITDA growth 40.3 12.7 10.0 (6.7) Gross cash invested 7,529.4 8,227.1 9,003.3 9,675.3 EBIT growth 57.8 14.4 11.2 (11.7) Net income growth 65.8 14.8 11.8 (12.3) Ratios 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E EPS growth 69.4 19.7 18.4 (7.4) CROCI (%) 20.5 20.5 20.7 18.2 DPS growth -- (100.0) -- -- CROCI/WACC (X) 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.2 EBITDA margin 25.1 25.9 28.2 24.9 ROIC (%) 13.4 12.8 13.8 12.0 EBIT margin 18.4 19.3 21.2 17.7 ROIC/WACC (X) 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 ROA (%) 9.0 8.8 9.5 8.3 Cash flow statement ( mn) 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E WACC (%) 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 Net income 866.7 994.8 1,111.9 975.6 Inventory days 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 D&A add-back (incl. ESO) 377.7 407.9 434.7 472.1 Asset turnover (X) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Minority interest add-back 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt/equity (%) (9.0) (6.1) (6.5) (9.3) Net (inc)/dec working capital 406.4 136.4 (45.8) 210.6 EBITDA interest cover (X) 25.2 26.3 28.9 27.1 Other operating cash flow 31.5 56.4 63.0 55.3 Cash flow from operations 1,682.3 1,595.5 1,563.8 1,713.6 Valuation 3/15 3/16E 3/17E 3/18E EV/sales (X) 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 Capital expenditures (788.5) (854.5) (681.4) (816.0) EV/EBITDAR (X) 7.7 9.5 8.2 8.2 Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 7.7 9.7 8.3 8.3 Divestitures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIT (X) 10.2 12.5 10.6 11.1 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/E (X) 13.0 15.8 13.3 14.4 Cash flow from investing (788.5) (854.5) (681.4) (816.0) Dividend yield (%) 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 FCF yield (%) 7.9 4.7 6.0 6.4 Dividends paid (common & pref) (520.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/GCI (X) 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 Inc/(dec) in debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/adj. capital employed (X) 3.2 4.2 3.7 3.5 Other financing cash flows 638.9 (850.0) (850.0) (750.0) Price/book (X) 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.0 Cash flow from financing 118.9 (850.0) (850.0) (750.0) Total cash flow 1,554.2 (109.0) 32.4 147.5 Note: Ratios are adjusted for leases where appropriate. Only separately disclosed where significant and ongoing. Capex/D&A (%) 208.8 209.5 156.8 172.9 Reinvestment rate (%) 61.8 58.6 42.3 54.3 Cash flow cover of dividends (X) 2.5 NM NM NM Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Free cash flow cover of dividends (X) 1.7 -- -- -- Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Monique Pollard monique.pollard@gs.com Alexia Dogani alexia.dogani@gs.com Nick Edelman nick.edelman@gs.com Hilary Burke hilary.burke@gs.com Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

Limited upside RYA vs EZJ given expected returns fade from CY17 Exhibit 1: We expect Ryanair s returns to start to fade from CY17E easyjet vs. Ryanair cash returns on capital invested Exhibit 2: driven by EBIT margin compression from FY18E given RYA s planned capacity growth RYA EBIT margin chg yoy vs. seat growth, FY02-18E 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% EBIT margin (chg yoy, ppts) 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2015 2003 2002 2017E 2014 2005 2013 2011 2012 2018E 2010 fuel costs 29% yoy 2016E 2007 2008 2006 2004 2009 fuel costs +59% yoy easyjet Ryanair 20% Margin expansion Margin compression 2 4 6 8 10 12 Seat growth (chg yoy, mn) Exhibit 3: By contrast, easyjet s EBIT margin should be able to continue expanding at planned capacity growth EZJ EBIT margin chg yoy vs. seat growth, FY04-18E Exhibit 4: Returns fade for Ryanair from CY17E implies limited upside to current equity value RYA share price vs. value/share implied by CROCI-valuation 8% 18 EBIT margin (chg yoy, ppts) 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2009 2010 2013 2006 2007 2017E 2014 2012 2015E 2016E 2005 2011 2018E 2004 fuel costs +14% fuel costs +67% 2008 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12% upside 7% upside Seats (chg yoy, mn) RYA Share price CROCI implied value/share Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 5: vs. easyjet for which we still see significant upside potential EZJ share price vs. value/share implied by CROCI-valuation Exhibit 6: Valuation looks broadly consistent with our forecast of 19% return on capital in CY17E RYA EV/GCI vs. CROCI, financial years 2,500 38% upside 3.0 EV/GCI 2003 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 19% upside 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2014 2011 2012 2004 2006 2007 2016E 2008 2015 2017E 2018E 2005 2013 EZJ Share price CROCI implied value/share R² = 71% CROCI 0.5 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3

Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Monique Pollard, Nick Edelman and Hilary Burke, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Monique Pollard: Europe-Travel & Leisure. Nick Edelman: Europe-Travel & Leisure. Alexia Dogani: Europe-Transport, Europe-Travel & Leisure. Europe-Transport: Aena SA, Aeroports de Paris, Atlantia, DSV, FirstGroup, Flughafen Zurich, Fraport AG, Groupe Eurotunnel SA. Europe-Travel & Leisure: A.P. Moeller-Maersk, AA Plc, Accor, Aer Lingus, Air France-KLM, BBA Aviation Plc, Betfair Group, Compass Group, Dufry, Easyjet, Edenred, Greene King, InterContinental Hotels Group, International Airlines Group, Kuehne & Nagel, Ladbrokes, Lufthansa, Marston's Plc, Merlin Entertainments Group, Mitchells & Butlers Plc, Paddy Power Plc, Panalpina, Punch Taverns Plc, Restaurant Group, Ryanair, Sodexo, Spirit Pub Co., SSP Group Plc, Thomas Cook Group, TUI AG, Wetherspoon (JD), Whitbread, William Hill, World Duty Free Group. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Ryanair ( 11.83) Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Ryanair ( 11.83) Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Ryanair ( 11.83) Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: Ryanair ( 11.83) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 32% 54% 14% 46% 37% 32% As of April 1, 2015, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,356 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4

Price target and rating history chart(s) Stock Price Currency : Euro Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 7.3 7 6.7 6 8.8 8.1 7.9 9.2 8.1 7.7 6.8 8 8.1 8.4 10 9.7 13 11.7 12 12.5 12.7 500 450 400 350 300 Stock Price 0.00 250 Dec 4 N B M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 3/31/2015. Rating Covered by Alexia Dogani, Price target as of Sep 17, 2013 Index Price Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst FTSE World Europe (EUR) The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/comanaged public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at http://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. is an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and therefore is included in the company specific disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs (as defined above). Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research report in Canada if and to the extent that Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. disseminates this research report to its clients. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited. Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at http://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho 69, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by either Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. or Goldman, Sachs & Co.; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG and Goldman Sachs International Zweigniederlassung Frankfurt, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (http://www.sipc.org). Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analyst's published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analyst's fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs. Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data available on a particular security, please contact your sales representative or go to http://360.gs.com. Disclosure information is also available at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282. 2015 Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7