TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... i Introduction... i Approach... i The Composition of the Register by Age... ii Registration Rates...iii Non-registration... iv Geographical Patterns... v I Background...1 Introduction...1 Approach...1 Structure of the Report...2 II December 2007 Register: Age Profile...3 Introduction...3 Key Points Summary...3 Composition...4 Registration rates...6 The Non-registered...7 Attainers...9 Demographic trends... 10 III Geographical Patterns... 15 Introduction...15 Key Points Summary... 15 Parliamentary Constituencies... 16 Electoral Wards... 23
Area Characteristics... 25 Appendix A Additional Material... 35
Executive Summary Introduction This is the tenth report in an ongoing desk research programme examining key aspects of electoral registration in Northern Ireland. The purpose of the report is to provide an analysis of the December 2007 electoral register based on age. This first analysis of the electoral register based on age marks an important step forward towards an improved understanding of the register, for the following reasons: Approach Generating a better picture of the composition of the register. Enhanced analysis of likely patterns of change over time. An improved understanding of the demographics of the nonregistered, as the age profile of the register can be compared with the population. For the purposes of this report, the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) has, for the first time, made available detailed information on the age profile of the electoral register. The age dataset provided, by single year of age, counts of the number of registered electors for Northern Ireland as a whole. At Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward level, the age dataset was processed to provide counts by broad age band. The key issues addressed in the analysis are as follows: How does the age composition of the register compare to the age profile of the population? How does the propensity to register vary according to age? What are the implications of demographic trends for the register? What are the main geographical patterns in the age composition of the register, by Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward. For example, are young people in more deprived areas more or less likely to be on the register by comparison with less deprived areas? Page i
The Composition of the Register by Age As at December 2007, the Northern Ireland electoral register contained a total of 1.125m entries. The composition of the register by broad age group is shown in Figure A below, along with the population age profile. In general, the older age groups account for a larger share of the register by comparison with their population share. Persons aged 45 and over accounted for 53 per cent of entries on the December 2007 register, compared to their 48 per cent population share. Conversely, those aged 34 and under comprised 27 per cent of the register, compared to their 33 per cent population share. 25 Figure A Age composition of the December 2007 Register compared to resident population (% of all aged 17+) Per cent of total 20 15 10 5 Register Population 0 Less than 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age group Sources: EONI - register; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections. The composition of the register by Parliamentary Constituency exhibits the same broad patterns as for Northern Ireland as a whole. In each of the 18 constituencies, the share of the register accounted for by persons aged under 40 is below their population share. A particularly striking aspect of the December 2007 register is that it contained very few attainers 1, less than 300. This was the position across each of the 18 constituencies. At December 2007, therefore, the stock of attainers was too low to replace those 18 year-olds who will age out of that age band over the 12 months to December 2008. Without substantial new inflows of persons aged 17-18, there is therefore a distinct possibility that December 2008 could see very few 18 year olds on the register. This is the potential moving cliff in the age profile of the register. 1 Persons aged 16-17 on the register are referred to as attainers, that is, they appear on the register but will not be issued with e.g. a voting card, until they have attained voting age (18). Page ii
Registration Rates The registration rate is the percentage of the relevant population which is registered to vote. Estimated registration rates vary sharply by age. Amongst the voting age population 2, the registration rate ranges from 45 per cent for 18 year olds to 97 per cent amongst those aged 69 years (Figure B). The relationship between age and the propensity to register can be illustrated as follows: Within the age range 19-69, the registration rate increases, on average, by half a percentage point for each one year increase in age. Within the age range 70-79, the registration rate stays relatively high (93-95 per cent) before declining gently amongst those aged 80+. 100 90 Figure B Registered by single year of age: December 2007 Per cent of resident population in age group Per cent 80 70 60 50 40 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Sources: EONI - number registered by age. Population data derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. Similar to Northern Ireland, in each Parliamentary Constituency, the registration rate increases with age. There is a strong urban-rural divide in registration rates which is especially pronounced amongst the younger age groups. Thus, amongst those aged 18-24, registration rates are higher in more rural constituencies. The estimated registration rate for 18-24 year olds is lowest in Belfast South. At least in part, this is likely to reflect the high proportion of students among the resident population in that constituency. 2 Persons aged 18+. Page iii
Registration rates amongst the older age groups also tend to be higher in the more rural constituencies. However, the urban-rural contrast is less pronounced amongst the older age groups; within each Parliamentary Constituency, the estimated registration rates for persons aged 45-59 and 60+ tend to be closer to the Northern Ireland average than is the case for the younger age groups. The overall registration rate of all persons aged 18+ ranges from an estimated 92 per cent in per cent in Newry and Armagh to 65 per cent in Belfast South, compared to the NI average of 84 per cent. The geographical contrasts in overall registration rates are not greatly affected by differences between constituencies in population age composition. The main driver is geographical differences within each age group in the propensity to register. These differences are more pronounced at the younger end of the age spectrum i.e. the likelihood of a person aged 25-29 being on the register varies much more from one constituency to another than for a person aged 60+. The population projections for the period 2007-2012 presage an ageing of the population, with an increasing share in the older age groups. As registration rates are already high in the older age groups, this will act to stabilise the register. Non-registration The patterns in the age distribution of those who are not on the electoral register ( the non-registered ) are clearly the opposite of the patterns discussed above in relation to those who are on the register. Thus, non-registration is disproportionately concentrated amongst the younger age groups, especially the under-25s (Figure C). 25 Figure C Age composition of the non-registered compared to resident population (% of all aged 17+) Per cent of total 20 15 10 5 Non-registered Population 0 Less than 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age group Sources: EONI - register; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections. As at December 2007, persons in the age range 17-24 accounted for an estimated 35 cent of the non-registered. This can be compared with their 11 per cent share of all those on the register and their 15 per cent share of the total resident population aged 17+. Page iv
By contrast, persons in the age range 45 and over accounted for one in four of the non-registered, well below their shares of both the resident population (48 per cent) and the electoral register (53 per cent). Reflecting the above patterns, the non-registration rate ranges from an estimated 40 per cent amongst those aged 18-19 to less than five per cent in the 65-69 age bracket. Stimulating higher registration rates among the younger age groups, while maintaining the already high rates among the older age groups, would have strongly positive effects on the comprehensiveness of the register. Geographical Patterns The analysis at electoral ward level indicates that the area characteristics most strongly associated with variations in registration rates include the rural/urban split, the mobility of the population, the net new buildings rate, household tenure, dwelling type and household type. For those area characteristcis that are most strongly associated with registration rates, the registration rate gaps tend to be wider among younger rather than older age groups. For example, amongst those aged 18-19, the estimated registration rate is 26 percentage points higher in rural than in urban areas, compared to a gap of six percentage points for those aged 60+ (Figure D). 100 90 Figure D Areas classified by urban/rural and age Registered as % of estimated population 18-19 20-24 Per cent 80 70 60 50 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ 40 Urban Mixed urban/rural Rural In addition to the rural population share, the area characteristics that are most associated with higher rates of registration among young people aged under-30 include the share of households in owner occupied accommodation, the per cent living in detached dwellings and the proportion of households comprised of married couples with dependent children. Page v
The more prevalent are these characteristics in a local area, the higher is the registration rate for all groups, and particularly young people. To that extent, these factors act to stabilise or maintain registration rates. The area characteristics that are most associated with lower rates of registration among young people aged under-30 include the mobility of the population, the proportion of households living in social and private rented accommodation and the share of single-person and lone parent households. Registration rates were found not to vary with area differences in deprivation and community background. Though, amongst those aged 18-19, registration rates tend to be somewhat lower in the most deprived 10 per cent of electoral wards. Page vi
I Background Introduction 1.1 This is the tenth report in an ongoing desk research programme examining key aspects of electoral registration in Northern Ireland. This report provides an analysis of the December 2007 electoral register based on age. 1.2 This first analysis of the electoral register based on age marks an important step forward towards an improved understanding of the register, for the following reasons: Approach Generating a better picture of the composition of the register. Enhanced analysis of likely patterns of change over time. An improved understanding of the demographics of the nonregistered, as the age profile of the register can be compared with the population. 1.3 For the purposes of this report, the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) has, for the first time, made available detailed information on the age profile of the electoral register. Following discussions with the CEO, the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (EONI) provided an anonymised dataset showing the date of birth and Electoral Ward location for all persons registered as at December 2007. The age dataset was then processed to provide, by single year of age, counts of the number of registered electors for Northern Ireland as a whole. At Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward level, the age dataset was processed to provide counts by broad age band. 1.4 The age bands for the geographical analysis were selected to reflect the main patterns identified from the analysis at NI level by single year of age 3, and also to be consistent with the bands used by the Electoral Commission when commissioning survey research in Northern Ireland. 1.5 The analysis of the data proceeded as follows: At Northern Ireland level, comparisons between the age profile of the register and estimates for the resident population, to identify the age gradient in the pattern of registration. That is, how does the propensity to register vary according to age? 3 The age bands are as follows: aged 17; 18-19; 20-24; 25-29; 30-34, 35-39; 40-44; 45-59; 60+. Page 1
Comparison of the age composition of the register with NI population projections by age group to facilitate assessment of potential changes in the age composition of the register. That is, what are the implications of demographic trends for the register? Analysis of geographical patterns in age composition of the register, by Parliamentary Constituency and Electoral Ward. 1.6 At Parliamentary Constituency level, the age profile of the register can be compared with the resident population, based on the mid-year population estimates produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). 1.7 At Electoral Ward level, the focus is on geographical patterns in the age composition of the register e.g. are young people in more deprived areas more or less likely to be on the register by comparison with less deprived areas? Structure of the Report 1.8 The structure of the report is as follows: Section 2 presents the findings from the analysis of the age profile of the register at Northern Ireland level. The topics covered include registration and non-registration rates, attainers and the implications of demographic trends for the register. Section 3 examines the geographical patterns in the register, commencing with the position at Parliamentary Constituency level. This is followed by an analysis at Electoral Ward level. Page 2
II December 2007 Register: Age Profile Introduction This Section presents the findings from the age analysis of the December 2007 electoral register for Northern Ireland as a whole. The Section commences with an overview on the composition of the register by age group. It then presents the pattern of registration rates by single year of age. This is followed by an assessment of the age profile of the nonregistered amongst the resident population. The Section then looks at the trend in attainers before concluding with an analysis of the implications of demographic trends from the official population projections for the period 2007 to 2012. Key Points Summary Relative to their population share, there is an under-representation of persons in the age groups under 40, especially amongst those aged 18-24. Registration rates vary sharply with age. Amongst the voting age population, the registration rate ranges from 45 per cent for 18 year olds to 97 per cent amongst those aged 69 years. Within the age range 19-69, the registration rate increases by half a percentage point for each one year increase in age. The non-registration rate varies from over 40 per cent amongst those aged 18-19 to less than five per cent in the 65-69 age bracket. Stimulating higher registration rates among the younger age groups, while maintaining the already high rates among the older age groups, would have strongly positive effects on the register. The December 2007 register contained very few attainers (less than 300). At this time, the stock of attainers is therefore too low to replace those currently aged 18 who will age out of that age band over the next year. Without substantial new inflows of persons aged 17-18, there is a distinct possibility that December 2008 could see very few 18 year olds on the register. The population projections for the period 2007-2012 presage an ageing of the population, with an increasing share in the older age groups. As registration rates are already high in the older age groups, this will act to stabilise the register. Page 3
Composition 2.1 In order to be registered, a person must satisfy three eligibility criteria: Age. Persons aged 16 or over are entitled to register, though only those who are aged 18 and over are entitled to vote at an election. Persons aged 16-17 on the register are referred to as attainers, that is, they appear on the register but will not be issued with e.g. a voting card, until they have attained the voting age. Nationality. The person must be a British, Irish or Commonwealth citizen or a citizen of a Member State of the European Union. Residency. The person must have been resident in Northern Ireland for at least three months prior to their application for registration. 2.2 As at December 2007, the register contained a total of 1.125m entries. The profile of these entries by single year of age is shown in Table A2.1 of Appendix A (Additional Material). Table 2.1 below presents a summary of the findings by broad age band. Table 2.1 The electoral register by age group: December 2007 Number Per cent of all 17 245 0.0 18-19 30,280 2.7 20-24 97,917 8.7 25-29 91,077 8.1 30-34 89,293 7.9 35-39 103,815 9.2 40-44 111,421 9.9 45-59 286,946 25.5 60+ 314,898 28.0 All 1,125,892 100.0 Source: EONI. 2.3 The first point to notice is that the December 2007 register contained very few attainers. This is an impotant topic to which we return later in this Section. Given the limited number of attainers on the register, in the rest of this report, the main focus for comparisons with the population is on persons aged 18+ (the voting-age population ). Page 4
2.4 The comparison between the age profile of the register and the resident population 4 aged 18+ is shown in Table A2.1. The comparisons are summarised in Figure 2.1, by five-year age band. The main points to note are as follows: The older age profile of the register as compared with the population. The average (median 5 ) age of persons aged 18+ on the register is 46 years, compared with 44 years amongst the population. Amongst the age groups aged less than 40-44, their share of the register is always less than their share of the population. For example, those aged 20-24 comprise 10 per cent of the population compared with 8.7 per cent of the register. 12 Figure 2.1 Age composition of the December 2007 Register compared to resident population (% of all aged 18+) Per cent of total 10 8 6 4 2 Register Population 0 18-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ Age group Sources: EONI - register; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections. By contrast, the older age bands typically have a higher share of the register as compared with their population share. For example, those aged 60-64 account for 6.8 per cent of the population, but make up 7.6 per cent of the register. 2.5 In general, therefore, the picture is one of an under-representation of persons aged under-40 on the register, compared to their population share. 4 The population figures shown in this report are based on NISRA s 2006 mid-year population estimates, rolled forward to December 2007 by interpolating between the 2006 mid-year estimates and the population projections for mid-2007. 5 The median lies in the middle of the age distribution. Thus, half of the population is aged less than the median while the remaining 50 per cent are aged in excess of the median. The median can therefore be said to give the age of the typical person and is preferred to the arithmetic mean for that reason. Page 5
Registration rates 2.6 The under-representation of younger age groups on the electoral register can be more clearly seen from the estimated registration rates 6 by single year of age. As can be seen from Figure 2.2, the proportion of the resident population that is on the register increases with age: Fewer than one in two (45 per cent) of the resident population aged 18 were on the electoral register as of December 2007. The registration rate is markedly higher at age 19 (73 per cent). From age 19 onwards, the registration rate steadily increases, reaching a peak of 97 per cent amongst those aged 69. Considering the age range 19-69, the registration rate increases by 24 percentage points, an average of half a percentage point for each one year increase in age. Within the age range 70-79, the registration rate stays relatively high (93-95 per cent) before declining gently amongst those aged 80+. 100 90 Figure 2.2 Registered by single year of age: December 2007 Per cent of resident population in age group Per cent 80 70 60 50 40 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Sources: EONI - number registered by age. Population data derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. 6 The registration rates shown in Figure 2.2 are based on the resident population. This is because the population figures produced by NISRA are on a residence basis. Consequently, the resident population estimate will include some who are not eligible to be on the electoral register e.g. persons in prison and those who do not meet the nationality requirements. Based on figures supplied by NISRA, it is estimated that such persons account for about 1.1 per cent of the total resident population aged 18+. However, the estimates for the eligible population are not available on an age basis, hence the reliance in this report on the resident population figures. Page 6
2.7 The main conclusion to be drawn from the foregoing pattern is that registration rates are very strongly correlated with age 7. In other words, at Northern Ireland level, the propensity to register would appear to increase with age. The Non-registered 2.8 Clearly, the patterns in the age distribution of those who are not on the electoral register will be the opposite of the patterns discussed above in relation to those who are on the register. This can be seen from Figure 2.3, showing the estimated non-registration rates 8 by broad age group (see also Table A2.1 in Appendix A). Thus, the non-registration rate varies from over 40 per cent amongst those aged 18-19 to less than five per cent in the 65-69 age bracket. Figure 2.3 The non-registered as per cent of the resident population, by age group: December 2007 45 40 Per cent of total 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Age group Sources: EONI - register; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections. 2.9 It is, nonetheless, useful to document the age profile of the non-registered to show how the extent of the problem varies from on age group to another. Considering first the composition of the non-registered, this is strongly skewed towards the younger age groups (Figure 2.4. See also Table 2.2 overleaf and Table A2.1 in Appendix A). 2.10 The following points can be noted: 7 It is possible to explain 95 per cent of the variance in registration rates by age using a very simple statistical model to predict registration rates as a function age in years, age squared and a dummy variable for aged 18. 8 Bearing in mind the distinction drawn in footnote 6 above regarding the difference between the resident population and the eligible population. Page 7
The under-25s account for 27 per cent of the non-registered, compared to 11 per cent of the register and 14 per cent of the total resident population. Half the non-registered are aged 34 or less, By contrast, the same age group accounts for less than one in three of the population aged 18+ and 27 per cent of the electoral register. Notwithstanding their high registration rates, persons aged 45 and over still comprise over one in four of the non-registered, albeit this is much less than their 49 per cent population share. Figure 2.4 Age composition of the non-registered compared to resident population (% of all aged 18+) 20 Per cent of total 15 10 5 Non-registered Population 0 18-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80+ Age group Sources: EONI - register; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year population estimates and projections. Table 2.2 Age composition of registered and non-registered by broad age group: December 2007 Age group Population Registered Nonregistered % % % 18-19 3.8 2.7 10.0 20-24 10.0 8.7 16.7 25-29 8.9 8.1 13.2 30-34 8.5 7.9 11.8 35-39 9.6 9.2 11.5 40-44 9.8 9.9 9.4 45-59 24.2 25.5 17.2 60+ 25.2 28.0 10.3 All aged 18+ 100.0 100.0 10.0 Sources: EONI; NISRA. Page 8
2.11 To summarise, two key points emerge from the age profile of the nonregistered: There is an element of non-registration across all age groups. Non-registration is disproportionately concentrated amongst the younger age groups, especially the under-25s. 2.12 In the next Section, geographical patterns are analysed to shed further light on factors associated with non-registration. Attainers 2.13 As noted above, the December 2007 register containted very few attainers, fewer than one per cent of the resident population aged 17. This is a contrast to the position in previous years, when registered attainers accounted for between 30-40 per cent of the population aged 17 (Table 2.3). Table 2.3 Attainers on the register: 2004-2007 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Number on register 10,027 8,030 10,555 245 Per cent of Register 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 Per cent of population aged 17 36.9 30.3 40.6 0.9 Sources: EONI number on register; Population estimates derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. 2.14 Prior to 2007, the December register was compiled in the wake of an annual canvass of households across Northern Ireland. As noted in previous reports in this series 9, one advantage of the annual canvass was that it provided a mechanism by which, on a regular basis, citizens were directly and actively invited to register to vote. The small number of attainers on the December 2007 register would suggest that, in the absence of the annual canvass, a mechanism will be required to actively stimulate or attract new registrations by attainers. 2.15 A second point to note is that the reduction in the number of attainers from December 2006 to December 2007 points to what can be called an ageing of the stock effect, as follows. 9 See, for example, Update Report Number 4, para 4.2; Update Report Number 9, para 3.33. Page 9
2.16 In December 2006, there were 10,555 attainers on the register. Over the period from December 2006 to December 2007, that initial stock of 10,555 attainers will have aged into the 18 year old age group 10. As of December 2007, the number of 18 year olds on the electoral register was 11,579. Upwards of 90 per cent of these 18 year olds would have been attainers in December 2006. 2.17 That is, the number of 18 year olds in the December 2007 electoral register was primarily shaped by the ageing of the December 2006 stock of attainers into the 18 year old age group, rather than an inflow of new registered electors. The same is true for any other age group, for example, the ageing of the stock of 29 year olds in one period into the 30 year old group in a subsequent year. 2.18 However, with the number of attainers as of December 2007 standing at less than 300, this raises the possibility that the number of 18 year olds on the December 2008 register will be comparable to the number of attainers on the December 2007 register. In short, unless substantial new inflows of 17 and 18 year olds are attracted on to the register, there is a very real possibility that December 2008 could see very few 18 year olds on the electoral register. Demographic trends 2.19 Given the age effect shown above, it is useful to consider the potential effect of demographic trends on the registration rate. Looking ahead over the five years from 2007 to 2012, the main trend in the population projections for Northern Ireland is the predicted faster rate of increase amongst the older age groups. 2.20 As can be seen from Figure 2.5, each of the age groups from 45 onwards is expected to increase in population in the period from 2007 to 2012. The highest rates of increase are projected for the population aged 65 and over. By contrast, the age groups under 45 are mainly expected to remain static or decline. The 25-29 age group is an exception in that regard, with growth projected at 18 per cent, mainly driven by net in-migration amongst that age cohort. 2.21 The variations in population growth rates shown in Figure 2.5 presage an ageing of the population that will see an increase in the population share accounted for by older age groups and a corresponding decrease amongst the younger age groups. For example, the proportion of the population aged 65+ is set to rise by +1.4 percentage points between 2007 and 20012. Conversely, the population share of those aged 18-34 is set to fall by -1.34 per centage points. 10 According to Government Actuary Department estimates, the death rate among 17 year olds is very low. Page 10
Figure 2.5 Predicted population change 2007-2012 20.0% 15.0% Per cent of total 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 17 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 18-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-79 80+ All Age group Sources: NISR A. 2.22 Turning to the question of what these demographic trends mean for the register, the starting point is to recall that registration rates increase with age (see Figure 2.2 above). One possibility is that the December 2007 pattern of registration rates reflects a behavioural effect, that is, people are more inclined to register as they grow older. 2.23 If it can be assumed that this behavioural effect will continue to operate over the period from 2007 to 2012, the shift in the population towards the older population groups, with higher registration rates, would lead to a modest increase in the overall registration rate of those aged 18+. This is illustrated as Scenario I in Table 2.4. Thus, if the age-specific registration rates illustrated in Figure 2.2 above were to remain constant over the period from 2007 to 2012, the registration rate amongst those aged 18+ would increase from 84.3 per cent in 2007 to 84.6 per cent. Table 2.4 Demographic trends and the register: Alternative scenarios Actual 2007 Predicted 2012 Scenario I Scenario II All aged 18+ 1,335,360 1,396,850 1,396,850 Change (%) +4.6 +4.6 Registered 1,125,647 1,181,213 1,060,058 Change (%) +4.9-5.8 Rate 84.3 84.6 75.9 Change (pps) +0.3-8.4 Sources: EONI number on register; Population estimates derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. Page 11
2.24 In Scenario I, the ageing of the population would act both to boost the numbers on the register and to have a stabilising effect on registration rates. The key underlying assumption is the constancy of the 2007 baseline of age specific registration rates i.e. the population in the 65-79 age band would have a 95 per cent registration rate in 2012, as they do in 2007, and similarly for the remaining age groups. 2.25 An alternative scenario is that the pattern of age-specific registration rates shown in Figure 2.2 is more strongly related to age differences in the propensity to respond to an annual canvass. As the canvass has been ended, the scenario that presents itself is that the evolution of the register over the next five years will be dominated by the ageing of the stock effect as discussed above in relation to attainers. 2.26 As an extreme case, if the ageing of the stock effect was the only factor affecting the register, so that there were no new inflows of persons onto the register, the result would be a declining register and a falling registration rate as illustrated by Scenario II in Table 2.4. The reason is that, in this hypothetical scenario, from one year to the next, there is no annual influx of attainers to replenish the stock of 18 year olds as they age out of that cohort over the course of a year. The ageing of the population does not help, in this scenario, because mortaility rates are much higher amongst the stock of older people 11. 2.27 The extreme case illustrated in Scenario II is, of course, highly unlikely. Nonetheless, it is useful as a means of emphasising the importance of stimulating new inflows of young people to the register. 2.28 The scenarios presented above are intended to illustrate certain aspects of the dynamics of the register. This is because the two scenarios embody different working assumptions about the effect of age on the change over time in the register. Of course, it is not possible at this time to say which of the alternative underlying assumptions is likely to provide the better predictor of how the register will evolve over time. This is because the analysis is based on a snapshot at a point in time, rather than comparisons between two or more time periods. Nonetheless, a baseline has now been established and it will be important to re-visit the age analysis of the register to assess how the age profile has changed in comparison to the December 2007 baseline. 2.29 The final point to be made is that, when two or more age analyses of the register are available, it will be possible to look at shifts in registration rates over time. For example, whether those aged under-30 are more or less likely to be registered by comparison to the December 2007 baseline. 11 In demographic terms, this scenario is akin to a situation where there are no births in a population, only deaths. Without births to replace those dying, the population will inevitably decline. Page 12
2.30 This will also prompt consideration of a third possibility, that is, of an upward shift in registration rates, to reduce the incidence of nonregistration. As there is no empirical evidence as yet on shifts in registration rates by age group, this third scenario is more useful to consider as an aid to indicating the challenge faced in growing the register. In that context, the analysis in this Section suggests the need to flatten the age gradient in registration rates, so that there is less of a differential in rates between the younger and older age groups. Stimulating higher registration rates among the younger age groups, while maintaining the already high rates among the older age groups, would have strongly positive effects on the register. 2.31 For example, the registration rate among those aged 60-64 is currently 95 per cent. By contrast, the rate among those aged 20-24 is 74 per cent, a differential of 21.5 per cent. Consider a scenario in which that differential was to be halved, so that the registration rate amongst those aged 20-24 was increased by 10.7 percentage points, to 84.4 per cent. Further suppose that the differential between the registration rate for the 60-64 group and each of the other age groups from 25 to 59 was also to be halved. In that scenario, and given also the boost from the population change projections discussed above, the number of persons registered would rise by 10.5 per cent while the registration rate for those aged 18+ would rise to 89.1 per cent (+4.8 percentage points). Achieving a 60 per cent reduction in the registration rate gap would yield, over the same time period, an overall registration rate of 90 per cent amongst those aged 18+. Page 13
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III Geographical Patterns Introduction This Section presents the findings for the geographical patterns in the register, by age group, commencing with the position at Parliamentary Constituency level. This is followed by an analysis at Electoral Ward level. Key Points Summary Similar to Northern Ireland, in each Parliamentary Constituency, the registration rate generally increases with age. There is a strong urban-rural divide in registration rates which is especially pronounced amongst the younger age groups. Estimated registration rates among young people are much higher in more rural constituencies. Estimated registration rates for those aged 18-24 are lowest in Belfast South. This is likely to reflect the high proportion of students among the resident population in the constituency. There is much less variability across Parliamentary Constituencies in registration rates amongst the older age groups. Thus, the registration rates for persons aged 45-59 and 60+ tend to be much more tightly bunched around the Northern Ireland average than is the case for other age groups. Geographical differences in the overall registration rate of all persons aged 18+ are not greatly affected by differences between areas in population age composition. The main driver is geographical differences within each age group in the propensity to register. At electoral ward level, registration rates are most strongly correlated with the rural/urban split, the mobility of the population, the net new buildings rate, household tenure, dwelling type and household type. For those socio-demographic attributes, the registration rate gaps tend to be wider among younger rather than older age groups. For example, amongst those aged 18-19, the registration rate in rural areas is 26 percentage points higher than in urban areas, compared to a gap of six percentage points for those aged 60+. Registration rates are least strongly correlated with deprivation and community background. Page 15
Parliamentary Constituencies 3.1 The numbers of persons registered within each of the broad age bands discussed in Section 2 above are shown by Parliamentary Constituency in Table A3.1 in Appendix A. When analysed by broad age group, the composition of the register by Parliamentary Constituency exhibits the same broad patterns as for Northern Ireland as a whole. Thus, in each of the 18 constituencies, persons aged under-40 account for a smaller share of the register compared to their population share (Figures 3.1 and 3.2. See also Tables A3.2 and A3.3). Figure 3.1 Age composition of the Register Per cent of all aged 18+ Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Newry & Armagh North Antrim North Down South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Per cent Figure 3.2 Age composition of the resident population Per cent of all aged 18+ Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Newry & Armagh North Antrim North Down South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone N. Ireland 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 100 95 Per cent 3.2 However, the age effect is more pronounced in the four Belfast constituencies, those constituencies that are adjacent to Belfast (e.g. North Down) and also Foyle and East Londonderry. For example, in Belfast East, under-29s account for 15.5 per cent of the register versus 18.7 per cent in the population, a gap of -3.2 percentage points. Page 16
3.3 Apart from Foyle and East Londonderry, amongst under-29s, the gap between their share of the register and their population share tends to be smaller in the more rural constituencies located west of the Bann and along the Border. For example, in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, under-29s account for 21.7 per cent of the register and 22.5 per cent of the population aged 18+, a gap of just 0.9 percentage points. 3.4 Reflecting the contrast between the age profile of the register and the population, the age gradient in registration rates discussed in Section 2 above in relation to Northern Ireland is, for the most part, replicated across the 18 Parliamentary Constituencies (see Figures 3.3 to 3.6. See also Table A3.3). That is, in each Parliamentary Constituency, the registration rate generally increases with age. There are, however, some interesting and important contrasts to be drawn. 100 Figure 3.3 Registration by age group: Belfast Per cent of resident population Per cent 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West N. Ireland 20 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ Age Sources: EONI; Population data derived from N ISRA mid-year estimates and projec tions. Figure 3.4 Registration by age group: Antrim and North Down Per cent of resident population 100 Per cent 90 80 70 60 East Antrim North Antrim North Down South Antrim N. Ireland 50 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ Age Sources: EONI; Population data derived from N ISRA mid-year estimates and projec tions. Page 17
Figure 3.5 Registration by age group: Mid-NI and Rest of East Per cent of resident population 100 Per cent 90 80 70 60 Lagan Valley Mid Ulster South Down Strangford Upper Bann N. Ireland 50 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ Age Sources: EONI; Population data derived from N ISRA mid-year estimates and projec tions. Figure 3.6 Registration by age group: Border and West Per cent of resident population 100 Per cent 90 80 70 60 E. Londonderry Ferm & S. Tyrone Foyle Newry & Armagh West Tyrone N. Ireland 50 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-59 60+ Age Sources: EONI; Population data derived from N ISRA mid-year estimates and projec tions. 3.5 First, the young people s rate is much the lowest in Belfast south; standing at 25 per cent among 18-19 year olds, compared to the NI average of 59 per cent, and 31 per cent for 20-24 year olds, versus 74 per cent provincewide. 3.6 In very sharp contrast to the Belfast South picture, registration rates among young people are much higher in more rural constituencies. For 18-24 year olds, the registration rate reaches as high as 80 per cent in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. In Newry and Armagh, the number of people aged 20-24 on the register equates to 93 per cent of the resident population. Indeed, Newry and Armagh shows the flattest registration rate of any Parliamentary Constituency; from age 20 onwards, the Newry and Armagh registration rates are consistently above 90 per cent. Page 18
3.7 These very large disparities in registration rates are likely to reflect, at least in part, a tendency for young people attending university in south Belfast to register at their home rather than their term-time addresses. At the time of the 2001 Census, students in full-time education or training accounted for 14.5 per cent of the population aged 18+ in Belfast South, compared to an average of four per cent across Northern Ireland as a whole. 3.8 In the population statistics, students studying away from home during termtime are counted as part of the resident population in the place where they study, rather than their home location. This in turn means that the geographical distribution of the register is likely to differ from the geographical distribution of the resident population. This factor will tend to reduce the measured registration rate in areas with large student populations. For that same reason, the registration rate in areas from which students originate will tend to be inflated. 3.9 Nonetheless, it is important to appreciate that any such dislocation between the geography of the register and the geography of the resident population is most unlikely to explain all of the difference between the registration rate for young people in Belfast South and the rest of Northern Ireland 12. Indeed, in Belfast South, the registration rates for persons aged 25-34 are also well below the NI average. This is testimony to the influence of factors over and above the student effect. 3.10 For example, the lower registration rates of those aged 25-34 in Belfast South, and other central urban locations, may well reflect the higher mobility of the population. In previous research reports in this series, it has been found that the greater the mobility of the population within a particular area, the lower is the registration rate, especially in areas with a relatively higher share of the population living in rented accommodation 13. 3.11 A second key point to note is that there is much less variability across Parliamentary Constituencies in registration rates amongst the older age groups. As can be seen from Figures 3.3 to 3.6, the registration rates for persons aged 45-59 and 60+ tend to be much more tightly bunched around the Northern Ireland average than is the case for other age groups. 3.12 Though, even amongst the older age groups, there is an urban-rural divide. For example, the average registration rate for persons aged 60+ in the four Belfast constituencies is 89 per cent, compared to 95 per cent in the remaining 14 constituencies, a gap of six percentage points. 12 The first PwC desk research report, dated July 2003, estimated that the student factor accounted for no more than 50 per cent of the difference between the 18+ registration rate in Belfast South and the NI average (paras 2.25-2.26). 13 See, in particular, the analysis of geographical patterns in non-registration in Update Report Number 6. Page 19
3.13 In the remaining age groups, the most striking feature to emerge from the geographical pattern in registration rates is the large differences that are observed across Parliamentary Constituencies. These differences are summarised in Table 3.1, which shows for each broad age group the difference between the minimum and maximum rates across the 18 Parliamentary Constituencies. As can be seen, the spread of registration rates tends to be wider in the younger age groups, regardless oif whether Belfast South is included or excluded from the calculation. 3.14 Excluding Belfast South, the difference between the minimum and maximum registration rates for those aged 18-19 is 35 percentage points 14, which is 3.5 times wider than the gap between the minimum and maximum rates for those aged 60+ 15. Table 3.1 Differences across Parliamentary Constituencies in registration rates by age group (% of population aged 18+) Minimum Maxiumum Difference All Excl Belfast South % % pps pps 18-19 25 80 54 35 20-24 31 93 62 27 25-29 45 91 46 20 30-34 60 91 32 23 35-39 68 92 25 19 40-44 77 93 16 16 45-59 84 93 9 8 60+ 87 97 10 10 All aged 18+ 65 92 27 12 Sources: EONI; population data derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. pps Percentage points 14 The 80 per cent rate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone minus the 45 per cent rates observed in both Belfast North and West. 15 The 97 per cent rate in Mid-Ulster minus the 87 per cent rate in Belfast North. Page 20
3.15 It is these differences in the spread of registration rates by age groups that shape the geographical disparities in overall registration rates by Parliamentary Constituency. As can be seen from Figure 3.7, the spread in overall registration rates amongst the voting age population ranges from 7.5 percentage points above the Northern Ireland average (Newry and Armagh) to 18 percentage points below average in Belfast South, albeit in registration rates. This is an important point, which can be further illustrated by analysing the components of difference in voting age population 16 registration rates by Parliamentary Constituency. Figure 3.7 Parliamentary Constituencies: Difference from NI average % of population aged 18+: Parliamentary Constituency rate minus NI average Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Newry & Armagh North Antrim North Down South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone -20-17.5-15 -12.5-10 -7.5-5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5 Percentage points Sources: EONI; Population data derived from NISRA mid-year estimates and projections. 3.16 The differences between the overall rates by Parliamentary Constituency and the Northern Ireland average can be broken down into two separate components: The age composition effect. The differential effect. 3.17 These two effects can be illustrated as follows. Considering first the age composition effect. Some constituencies have a younger population age profile than the Northern Ireland average, and this acts as a drag on registration rates due to the universal tendency for registration rates to be lower among young people. Conversely, some constituencies have an older population age profile, when compared to the Northern Ireland average, and this gives a boost to registration rates. 16 The population aged 18+. Page 21
3.18 The age composition effect can be illustrated by comparing West Belfast and Strangford. The former constituency has a relatively high proportion of its population in the age range 18-29; 29 per cent compared to the Northern Ireland average of 22.7 per cent. The higher proportion of younger people in West Belfast reduces its registration rate by one percentage point, compared to what would be expected if the constituency had the same age profile as NI 17. 3.19 The opposite is the case in Strangford. There, the population aged 18-29 comprises just 16.3 per cent of all aged 18+. The concomitant higher representation of older people boosts Strangford s registration rate by one percentage point, compared to what would be expected if the constituency had the same age profile as NI. There is therefore a two percentage point difference between the expected registration rates for Belfast West and Strangford, due to these differences in age composition. 3.20 These age composition effects are shown for each Parliamentary Constituency in Figure 3.8. As it transpires, the actual difference in registration rates between Strangford and Belfast West is equivalent to the expected two percentage points gap arising from their different population age profiles. Crucially, however, in most constituencies, the age composition effect is much less than the actual observed difference in registration rates compared to the NI average. That is to say, the differences in population age composition between Parliamentary Constituencies are not nearly so large as to explain the observed differences in overall registration rates. Figure 3.8 Parliamentary Constituencies: Components of difference from NI average: % of population aged 18+ Belfast East Belfast North Belfast South Belfast West East Antrim East Londonderry Fermanagh & S. Tyrone Foyle Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Newry & Armagh North Antrim North Down South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann West Tyrone Differential effect Age composition effect -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 Percentage points 17 Technically, this expected value is calculated by applying the NI average age-specific registration rates to the population age composition in the constituency. This generates an expected value for the 18+ registration rate in the constituency which can be compared in the first instance with the NI average registration rate for those aged 18+. Page 22