Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective Briefing to the Senate Special Committee on Aging Labor Force Implications and Pension Vulnerabilities Adele Hayutin, Ph.D. Director, Global Aging Project Stanford Center on Longevity ahayutin@stanford.edu Most advanced economies face shrinking workforces. The U.S. is an exception. Working-Age Population Growth, 25-3 2 Working-Age Population Growth, 25-3 Shrinking (-29% to %) Moderate Growth (% to 25%) Rapid Growth (25% to 5%) Too Fast (5% to 1%) Dangerously Fast (1% to 171%) Page 1
Shrinking labor forces will be the norm throughout Europe with only a few exceptions. Working-Age Population; 25= 3 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2.8 UK France Germany Spain Italy.4 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Note: Working age = South Korea and face steep labor declines while Asia's young countries will see strong gains. Working-Age Population; 25= 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2.8.4.2. Pakistan 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 4 Philippines India Mexico South Korea Note: Working age = Page 2
Rapidly declining worker-retiree ratios will be especially burdensome for low-income countries. Ratio of Working-Age Population to Retirement-Age Population 5 2 15 South Korea Mexico 1 India 5 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Notes: Working age = ; retirement age = There will be fewer and fewer workers per retiree. Ratio of Working-Age to Retirement-Age Population 6 Italy S. Korea UK Mexico Brazil Vietnam Iran Indonesia India Philippines Pakistan Africa 1.4 1.9 3.4 1.4 2. 3.3 1.6 2.7 2.6 4.1 2.6 2.9 4.1 2.9 3. 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.7 6.6 9.7 3.3 5.8 5.4 5.3 7.6 9.3 6.6 8.2 7. 7.3 8.5 11.9 1.8 11.9 12. 11.9 1.7 13.3 25 23 25 14.8 15.7 15.1 16.2 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 Notes: Working age = ; retirement age = Page 3
The has a growing supply of future workers. 7 Age Mix (millions) Total Population (millions) 3 4 25 23% 35 3 2 15 25 2 1 5 15 1 5 and Germany face large workforce declines. Age Mix (millions) 8 Germany 1 6-19% 75-33% 45 5 3 25 15 Page 4
's workforce peaks in 215, while India faces continued strong growth. Age Mix (billions) 9 India 1.2 1.2.8.8.4.4.2..2. Older countries face shrinking workforces; young countries face quadrupling of the older population. Age Mix (billions) 1 More Developed Countries 5. Less Developed Countries.8 4. 3..4 2..2.. Page 5
In most cases, productivity gains will be too small to offset large workforce declines. Average Annual Growth in Labor Productivity, 1995-23* 11 Mexico EU UK Germany S. Korea Ireland Brazil 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 3.7% 4.9% 7.7% 1.1% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12% *Data for and Brazil 1995-21 Source: The Conference Board and Bart Van Ark, 22 & 24 Increased labor force participation could boost labor supply & help reduce dependency burden. U.S. Population and Labor Force Participation by Age, 2 12 Age 1+ 95-99 9-94 85-89 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 -4 7% 19% 59% 83% 85% 85% 78% 42% 1 5 5 1 Total Population = 275.3 million Total Labor Force = 14.9 million Population in millions by five-year age bracket; males on left, females on right. Source: Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 6
Labor force participation of men aged 6-64 has declined despite their increased life expectancy. % Change, 196 to early 2s 13 %Chg in Labor Force Participation Men Age 6-64 France -77% Belgium Netherlands Denmark Germany -51% Italy Spain UK -29% Sweden Canada -14% %Chg in Life Expectancy Men at Age 65 37% 3% 3% 55% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% Source: David Wise, U.S. State Department Summit on Global Aging, March 15, 27 PUBLIC PENSION INCENTIVES TO LEAVE THE LABOR FORCE FOR MEN IN 11 COUNTRIES Percent of men age 55 to 65 not working Source: Gruber J, Wise DA, eds. Social Security and Retirement around the World. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1999. Reproduced from Why Population Aging Matters, NIA 27. Page 7
The "youth bulge" is greatest in Africa and the Middle East. Young Adults (15-29) as % of Total Adults, 25 15 Young Adults (15-29) as % of Total Adults, 25 % to 25% 25% to 35% 35% to 45% 45% to 55% Over 55% Urban populations are projected to grow fastest in the poorest countries. Urban Population Growth, 25-3 16 Urban Population Growth, 25-3, Percent per year < % % to 1.5% 1.5% to 2.% 2.% to 3.% 3.% to 4.% 4.% to 6.% Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects 23 Revision Page 8