Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI June 29, Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents All Country World ex-us MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation 2 Earnings 3 Revenues 4 NERI & Margins Earnings Growth & Valuation 6 June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 30 Figure 1. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX (ratio scale) 6/29 30 Local currency US$ 10 10 0 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 Source: MSCI. 0 1.1 Figure 2. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index) 1.1 1.0 1.0.9.9.8 6/29.8.7.7.6 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 Source: MSCI..6 Page 1 / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
00 Figure 3. Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in local currency) 00 40 All Country World Ex-US MSCI Index 06/29/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 06/22/ x16 x14 40 30 x12 30 x x8 10 10 0 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 0 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 00 40 Figure 4. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in US$) All Country World Ex-US MSCI Index (in dollars) 06/29/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 0/ 00 40 30 x16 30 x14 10 x12 x x8 10 0 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 0 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
Earnings 30 Figure. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 6/22 30 2 2 1 1 Forward earnings* 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 32 27 Figure 6. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 32 27 22 22 12 12 Forward earnings* 7 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 7 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Page 3 / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
39 36 Figure 7. Revenues ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 39 36 33 6/22 33 30 30 27 27 24 Forward revenues* 24 21 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 21 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 37 Figure 8. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 37 32 32 27 27 22 22 Forward revenues* 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Page 4 / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
Figure 9. NERI & Margins ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 - Jun 0 - - - -1-1 - - -2-30 NERI Apr -1.79 May -2.30 Jun -2.27 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16-2 -30 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. 9. 9.0 Figure. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 8. 8.0 7. 7. 7.0 7.0 6. 6.0..0 Forward profit margin* (8.2) 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 6. 6.0..0 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
40 3 Figure 11. Earnings Growth & Valuation ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI STEG, STRG, and LTEG (percent) 40 3 30 2 LTEG* (12.0) STEG* (9.3) STRG* (.4) 30 2 1 1 0-6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. 0-2 Figure 12. ALL COUNTRY WORLD EX-US MSCI VALUATION Forward P/E* (13.1) 2 1 1 2.2 2.00 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.00.7.0 Relative P/E** (0.9) PEG Ratio*** (1.1) PEG capped at 2.0. 9 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 2.2 2.00 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.00.7.0 * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, then weekly. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 6 / June 29, / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-us MSCI www.
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