EUR/USD - EUR Underperform Eurozone data printed on the soft side. German inflation was unrevised in the final November reading. French CPI fell 0.3% YoY while Italian industrial production lowered to -3.0%. ECB announced allotment of EUR129.84bn in the second tranche of its targeted long-term loans, which pressured the bank to ease policy more dramatically next year. However, EUR/USD edged up above 1.2450 following the announcement, and reached the highest 1.2495. Then the pair plunged to 1.2368 low after the release of US retail sales. EUR/USD EUR/HKD Prior Open 1.2446 9.6469 Prior Close 1.2409 9.6191 Prior High 1.2494 9.6850 Prior Low 1.2368 9.5874 % Change -0.30% EUR/USD Resistance 2 1.2560 Resistance 1 1.2520 Market Rate 1.2400 Support 1 1.2300 Support 2 1.2245 EUR/HKD 9.7370 9.7060 9.6130 9.5355 9.4928 GBP/USD - GBP Neutral Cable fell against the dollar for the first time in four days on an upbeat US retail sales, increasing the expectations that US raises its interest rates sooner than expected. In contrast, BoE Mark Carney kept his speech on dovish tone and the timing of the first hike in UK was still uncertain. Furthermore, UK house prices grew at their slowest rate in a year and a half during the past three months. Cable fell to an intraday low 1.5649 but soon climbed back to 1.5730s and ended it there. GBP/USD Prior Open 1.5714 Prior Close 1.5731 Prior High 1.5756 Prior Low 1.5649 % Change +0.11% GBP/HKD 12.1799 12.1942 12.2139 12.1303 GBP/USD Resistance 2 1.5830 Resistance 1 1.5800 Market Rate 1.5724 Support 1 1.5600 Support 2 1.5570 GBP/HKD 12.2720 12.2488 12.1899 12.0937 12.0705 Page 1
AUD/USD - AUD Underperform AUD/USD rose about 30 pips after the Australia employment change for November came at 42.7k vs 15k exp. Then the pair retreated back to 0.8320 level and started to go even lower when European session started. RBA Gov Stevens commented in the AFR that he preferred to see an exchange rate of 0.7500. AUD/USD plummeted to a four and a half year low at 0.8213. AUD/USD Prior Open 0.8316 Prior Close 0.8271 Prior High 0.8375 Prior Low 0.8213 % Change -0.54% AUD/USD Resistance 2 0.8430 Resistance 1 0.8380 Market Rate 0.8255 Support 1 0.8200 Support 2 0.8150 AUD/HKD 6.4457 6.4114 6.4916 6.3667 AUD/HKD 6.5353 6.4965 6.3996 6.3570 6.3182 NZD/USD - NZD Neutral NZD/USD fell from the day high of 0.7872 to an session low of 0.7776 after US retail sales for November printed at 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% exp. RBNZ delivered hawkish comments yesterday as he raised the concerns over house price inflation whilst at the same time adding he has no plans for further macro prudential measures, which implied that rate hikes will be used next. as NZD/USD Prior Open 0.7814 Prior Close 0.7818 Prior High 0.7870 Prior Low 0.7776 % Change +0.05% NZD/HKD 6.0559 6.0603 6.1004 6.0276 NZD/USD Resistance 2 0.7910 Resistance 1 0.7890 Market Rate 0.7791 Support 1 0.7700 Support 2 0.7660 NZD/HKD 6.1321 6.1166 6.0399 5.9693 5.9383 Page 2
USD/CAD - CAD Underperform The Canadian dollar printed a new 5-year low at 1.1549 against the dollar on Thursday. Another drop in the price of crude oil further pressured on the loonie. US crude futures ended the day below $60 per barrel. Together with the strong retail sales data from the US, USD/CAD was lifted to a new high and closed the day at 1.1520. USD/CAD Prior Open 1.1478 Prior Close 1.1520 Prior High 1.1549 Prior Low 1.1443 % Change +0.37% USD/CAD Resistance 2 1.1640 Resistance 1 1.1600 Market Rate 1.1538 Support 1 1.1380 Support 2 1.1350 CAD/HKD 6.7482 6.7272 6.7711 6.7089 CAD/HKD 6.8303 6.8123 6.7190 6.6831 6.6601 USD/CHF - CHF Neutral USD/CHF held steady on Thursday after three days losses. Dollar recovery from the robust US data provided support to the pair. The Swiss National Bank kept its cap on the franc at 1.20 per euro in yesterday s policy meeting, reiterating its commitment to defend the limit with currency interventions. The three-month Libor was kept at target range of 0.00-0.25 percent, met market expectations. USD/CHF Prior Open 0.9663 Prior Close 0.9680 Prior High 0.9710 Prior Low 0.9625 % Change +0.18% CHF/HKD 8.0180 8.0046 8.0502 7.9789 USD/CHF Resistance 2 0.9770 Resistance 1 0.9730 Market Rate 0.9684 Support 1 0.9600 Support 2 0.9560 CHF/HKD 8.1092 8.0754 8.0054 7.9675 7.9349 Page 3
USD/JPY - JPY Neutral USD/JPY rebounded from the weekly low at 117.43 on Thursday, after three straight days of losses. Robust US data suggested US is still on the track to recover economic growth. Report showed new jobless claims in US remained below 300K over last week. The pair was choppy overnight and climbed to the top of 119.55, but soon retreated to end the session at 118.65. Today s key local event would be Japan s industrial output for October. USD/JPY Prior Open 117.78 Prior Close 118.65 Prior High 119.55 Prior Low 117.43 % Change +0.74% USD/JPY Resistance 2 121.00 Resistance 1 120.00 Market Rate 118.94 Support 1 117.00 Support 2 116.80 JPY/HKD 0.065764 0.065310 0.065994 0.064823 JPY/HKD 0.066373 0.066260 0.065179 0.064603 0.064069 USD/CNY - CNY Underperform China s Yuan continued to trade far below the official daily guidance rate on Thursday. The People s Bank of China set a stronger official guidance rate at 6.1153 per dollar, up 0.07 percent from the previous fix. Markets predicted that the central bank would cut RRR as soon as this month and loosen monetary policy further in order to boost economic growth. However, strong midpoint fixed by the central bank showed it does not want to see Yuan depreciation. USD/CNY Prior Open 6.1705 Prior Close 6.1881 Prior High 6.1900 Prior Low 6.1680 % Change +0.29% CNY/HKD 1.2564 1.2528 1.2524 1.2569 Previous PBOC Fixing 11-Dec-14 6.1153 Page 4
Economic Calendars Date Time Country Period Event Name Unit Actual Poll Prior 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Oct. 2014 Imports C$ CAD B 44.82-44.59 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Oct. 2014 Exports C$ CAD B 44.92-44.89 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Oct. 2014 Trade balance C$ CAD B 0.1 0.2 0.31 05-Dec 21:30 United States Oct. 2014 International trade mm $ USD B -43.4-41.4-43 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Nov. 2014 Unemployment rate % 6.6 6.6 6.5 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Nov. 2014 Employment change K -10.7 5 43.1 05-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Average Earnings MM % 0.4 0.2 0.1 05-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Unemployment Rate % 5.8 5.8 5.8 05-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Non-Farm Payrolls K 321 230 214 08-Dec 5:45 New Zealand Q3 2014 Manufacturing Sales % 0.4 - -0.7 08-Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 Trade balance USD B 54.474 43.5 45.41 08-Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 Imports yy % -6.7 3.9 4.7 08-Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 Exports yy % 4.7 8.2 11.6 08-Dec 17:30 Eurozone Dec. 2014 EuroZone-Sentix index - -2.5-10.5-11.9 08-Dec 21:15 Canada Nov. 2014 House starts, annualized K 195.6 195 183.6 08-Dec 23:00 United States Nov. 2014 Employment trends - 123.24-123.1 09-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 NAB business confidence - 1-4 09-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 NAB Business conditions - 5-12.7 09-Dec 15:00 Germany Oct. 2014 Trade balance, EUR, sa EUR B 20.6 18.5 18.5 09-Dec 15:00 Germany Oct. 2014 Imports mm sa % -0.5-1.5 5.4 09-Dec 15:00 Germany Oct. 2014 Exports mm sa % -3.1-1.5 5.48 09-Dec 20:45 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 ICSC chain stores yy % 2.9-2.8 09-Dec 20:45 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 ICSC chain stores ww % -1.5 - -1.8 09-Dec 21:55 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Redbook yy % 3.9-4.8 09-Dec 21:55 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Redbook mm % -1.3 - -0.6 09-Dec 23:00 United States Oct. 2014 Wholesale sales mm % 0.2 0.1 0.2 09-Dec 23:00 United States Oct. 2014 Wholesale inventories mm % 0.4 0.2 0.3 10-Dec 5:00 New Zealand Nov. 2014 REINZ HPI MM % 3.3-1.4 10-Dec 8:30 Australia Oct. 2014 Invest Housing Finance % 1-3.7 10-Dec 8:30 Australia Oct. 2014 Housing Finance % 0.3 - -0.7 10-Dec 8:30 Australia Dec. 2014 Consumer sentiment % -5.7-1.9 10-Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 CPI mm % -0.2 - - 10-Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 CPI yy % 1.4 1.6 1.6 10-Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 PPI yy % -2.7-2.4-2.2 11-Dec 3:00 United States Nov. 2014 Federal budget,$ USD B -56.8-75 -121.7 11-Dec 4:00 New Zealand Dec. 11, 2014 Cen bank interest rate % 3.5 3.5 3.5 11-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 Unemployment Rate % 6.3 6.3 6.2 11-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 Participation Rate % 64.7 64.6 64.6 11-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 Full Time Employment - 1800-33407 11-Dec 8:30 Australia Nov. 2014 Employment - 42.7 15 24.1 11-Dec 15:00 Germany Nov. 2014 HICP final yy % 0.5 0.5 0.5 11-Dec 15:00 Germany Nov. 2014 HICP final mm % 0-0 11-Dec 15:00 Germany Nov. 2014 CPI final yy % 0.6 0.6 0.6 11-Dec 15:00 Germany Nov. 2014 CPI final mm % 0-0 11-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Retail sales mm % 0.7 0.4 0.3 11-Dec 21:30 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Continued jobless claims M 2.514 2.35 2.36 11-Dec 21:30 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Initial jobless claims K 294 295 297 11-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Export prices mm % -1-0.5-1 11-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Import prices mm % -1.5-1.8-1.3 11-Dec 21:30 Canada Oct. 2014 New housing price index % 0.1 0.1 0.1 11-Dec 23:00 United States Oct. 2014 Business inventories mm % 0.2 0.2 0.3 12-Dec 5:45 New Zealand Nov. 2014 Manufacturing PMI - 55.2-59.3 12-Dec 13:30 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 Retail Sales yy % 11.5 11.5 12-Dec 13:30 China (Mainland) Nov. 2014 Industrial output yy % 7.5 7.7 12-Dec 18:00 Eurozone Oct. 2014 Industrial production yy % 0.6 0.7 12-Dec 18:00 Eurozone Oct. 2014 Industrial production mm % 0.2 0.6 12-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 Core PPI final demand yy % 1.8 1.8 12-Dec 21:30 United States Nov. 2014 PPI final demand yy % 1.4 1.5 12-Dec 22:55 United States Dec. 2014 U Mich Expectations - 80.5 80.6 12-Dec 22:55 United States Dec. 2014 U Mich Conditions - 101.4 103 12-Dec 22:55 United States Dec. 2014 U Mich Sentiment - 89.5 89.4 Page 5
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