US Economic Indicators: Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI June 28, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents ECRI-WLI & Economic Indexes 1 ECRI-WLI, S&P 0, & High Yield Spread 2 YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI 3-4 June 28, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
1 Figure 1. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS ECRI-WLI & Economic Indexes 1 (1992=, 4-wa) May Conference Board LEI (2016=) 30 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 30 1 40 Figure 2. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1992=, 4-wa) Conference Board CEI (2016=) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). May 1 40 Page 1 / June 28, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
155 145 135 125 115 105 Figure 3. S&P 0 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX ECRI-WLI, S&P 0, & High Yield Spread S&P 0 Index ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Standard & Poor s and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 6/27 3000 20 20 2400 2 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 400-0 Figure 4. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 155 400 0 6/27 145 0 135 0 0 125 0 0 10 0 2 High-Yield Corporate Spread* (1992=) 1998 1999 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 115 105 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Page 2 / June 28, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
220 Figure 5. YRI vs ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX YRI Weekly Leading Index* YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI 6/16 155 1 (1992=) 145 135 125 115 105 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). - 0 Figure 6. YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 6/16 220 400 6/27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 High Yield Corporate Spread* 10 0 2 YRI Weekly Leading Index** 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 * High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 3 / June 28, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
220 Figure 7. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS YRI-WLI vs. ECRI-WLI May 6/16 1 Conference Board LEI (2016=) right scale YRI Weekly Leading Index* (1992=, 4-wa) left scale 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 4 / June 28, 2018 / Weekly Leading Indexes YRI vs ECRI www.
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