PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison January 2, 2015 Media Questions/Earnings Hotline: 617-856-2459 Gregory.Harrison@thomsonreuters.com PR team: 646-223-5985 EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS Third quarter earnings are expected to grow 12.3% from Q3 2013. Third quarter revenue is expected to grow 0.3% from Q3 2013. 52% of the 256 companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2014 have reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 48% beat analyst EPS estimates. 61% of the 294 companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported revenue to date for Q3 2014 have reported revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 53% beat analyst revenue estimates. The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.8. There are 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates expected to report Q3 2014 earnings during the week of January 5. SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q3 2014: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings Growth Estimate Trend 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 12/4 12/11 12/18 12/25 1/1 STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations for companies in the STOXX Europe 600 index. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Eikon, a complete solution for research and analytics. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics and trading tools available into a desktop as simple to use as the Internet. Thomson Reuters Eikon clients can run fundamental and technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more. Request a free trial of Thomson Reuters Eikon today. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.
Q3 2014: EARNINGS SCORECARDS Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials 59% 0% 41% 5% 32 33 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 53% 10% 37% 6% 30 33 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 54% 8% 38% -4% 13 14 Energy 61% 11% 28% 6% 18 20 Financials 43% 14% 43% 6% 56 70 Healthcare 52% 13% 35% 7% 23 24 Industrials 47% 4% 49% -4% 47 48 Technology 73% 20% 7% 10% 15 15 Telecommunications Services 67% 0% 33% 5% 15 16 Utilities 29% 0% 71% -21% 7 9 STOXX 600 52.3% 8.6% 39.1% 4% 256 282 Through January 2, 256 companies in the STOXX 600 Index have reported earnings for Q3 2014. Of these companies, 52% reported earnings above analyst estimates, 9% reported earnings in-line with analyst expectations, and 39% reported earnings below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 48% of companies beat estimates, 8% match and 44% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 48% of companies beat the estimates, 8% matched and 44% missed estimates. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4% above estimates, which is below the 5% longterm (since 2011) average surprise factor, and is above the 3% surprise factor recorded over the past four quarters. Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2013 Earnings vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 56% 6% 38% 52 53 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 50% 10% 40% 68 68 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 61% 6% 32% 31 33 Energy 44% 6% 50% 32 32 Financials 60% 5% 35% 119 121 Healthcare 65% 3% 32% 31 33 Industrials 52% 9% 39% 102 107 Technology 57% 5% 38% 21 23 Telecommunications Services 62% 0% 38% 21 23 Utilities 65% 12% 24% 17 17 STOXX 600 55.9% 6.7% 37.4% 494 510 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 2
Q3 2014: REVENUE SCORECARDS Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Revenue vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials 75% 0% 25% 3% 32 34 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 82% 0% 18% 3% 33 37 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 47% 0% 53% -1% 19 21 Energy 43% 0% 57% 1% 21 21 Financials 55% 0% 45% 1% 69 72 Healthcare 48% 0% 52% 1% 25 26 Industrials 68% 0% 32% 1% 53 57 Technology 60% 0% 40% 2% 15 15 Telecommunications Services 70% 0% 30% 1% 20 21 Utilities 29% 0% 71% 7% 7 7 STOXX 600 61.2% 0.0% 38.8% 1% 294 311 Through January 2, 294 companies in the STOXX 600 Index have reported revenues for Q3 2014. Of these companies, 61% reported revenue above analyst estimates, 0% reported revenue in-line with analyst expectations, and 39% reported revenue below analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 1% above estimates. Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2013 Revenue vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 33% 0% 67% 51 53 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 54% 1% 45% 67 68 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 19% 0% 81% 31 33 Energy 34% 0% 66% 32 32 Financials 48% 0% 52% 119 121 Healthcare 45% 0% 55% 31 33 Industrials 40% 0% 60% 102 107 Technology 52% 0% 48% 21 23 Telecommunications Services 33% 0% 67% 21 23 Utilities 59% 0% 41% 17 17 STOXX 600 42.7% 0.2% 57.1% 492 510 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 3
Q3 2014: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings Growth (Based on 282 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q314 Q313 Q314 Q314 Basic Materials 6.5 5.5 1.0 18.4% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 10.7 9.0 1.7 18.9% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 5.0 4.5 0.4 9.9% Energy 16.2 16.7-0.5-3.0% Financials 30.9 24.1 6.8 28.2% Healthcare 14.7 13.8 0.9 6.6% Industrials 9.8 9.1 0.7 7.7% Technology 4.1 3.0 1.1 35.5% Telecommunication Services 4.8 5.2-0.3-6.6% Utilities 1.2 1.2 0.0-3.4% STOXX 600 103.8 92.1 11.7 12.8% The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2014 is 12.8%. The STOXX 600 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $103.8B in Q3 2014, compared to share-weighted earnings of $92.1B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q3 2013. Seven of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q3 2013. The Technology sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Telecommunication Services sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to Q3 2013. The Technology sector has the highest earnings growth rate (33.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $4.1B in Q3 2014, compared to earnings of $3.0B in Q3 2013. All four industry groups in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Computers, Phones & Household Electronics (546%) industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector. The Telecommunication Services sector has the lowest growth rate (-6.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $4.8B in Q3 2014, relative to earnings of $5.2B in Q3 2013. Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings Growth (Based on 506 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector 2014 2013 2014 2014 Basic Materials 41.3 38.5 2.8 7.3% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 65.4 60.1 5.3 8.8% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 53.6 52.2 1.4 2.7% Energy 71.6 73.4-1.7-2.4% Financials 163.9 146.1 17.9 12.2% Healthcare 68.0 68.1 0.0-0.1% Industrials 65.6 61.0 4.7 7.7% Technology 17.2 13.7 3.4 24.8% Telecommunications Services 24.4 27.9-3.5-12.7% Utilities 29.2 36.2-7.0-19.4% STOXX 600 600.2 577.1 23.1 4.0% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 4
Q3 2014: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Revenue Growth (Based on 311 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q314 Q313 Q314 Q314 Basic Materials 114.4 112.9 1.4 1.3% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 239.6 227.6 12.0 5.3% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 94.2 89.8 4.4 4.9% Energy 373.0 398.9-25.9-6.5% Financials 237.2 231.5 5.7 2.4% Healthcare 87.2 84.4 2.8 3.3% Industrials 246.1 249.0-2.9-1.2% Technology 31.8 34.0-2.2-6.5% Telecommunications Services 82.5 72.1 10.4 14.4% Utilities 47.7 48.4-0.7-1.4% STOXX 600 1,553.7 1,548.7 5.0 0.3% The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2014 is 0.3%. The STOXX 600 is expected to earn revenues of $1,553.7B in Q3 2014 compared to $1,548.7B in Q3 2013. Six of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Telecommunication Services sector is expected to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Technology sector is expected to have the lowest revenue growth rate. The Telecommunication Services sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (14.4%) for the quarter. It is expected to generate sales of $82.5B in Q3 2014, compared to sales of $72.1B in Q3 2013. The Technology sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-6.5%). The sector is expected to post sales of $31.8B in Q3 2014, relative to sales of $34.0B in Q3 2013. Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue Growth (Based on 503 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector 2014 2013 2014 2014 Basic Materials 640.2 645.8-5.6-0.9% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 1,245.6 1,204.0 41.6 3.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 774.0 773.2 0.9 0.1% Energy 1,739.5 1,801.9-62.5-3.5% Financials 1,519.1 1,492.5 26.6 1.8% Healthcare 412.7 406.0 6.7 1.6% Industrials 1,345.7 1,347.5-1.8-0.1% Technology 159.3 169.5-10.2-6.0% Telecommunications Services 338.6 365.9-27.3-7.5% Utilities 694.3 734.0-39.7-5.4% STOXX 600 8,868.9 8,940.4-71.4-0.8% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 5
Q3 2014: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country Luxembourg Italy Finland Jersey Belgium Denmark Ireland Great Britain Netherlands Sweden STOXX 600 Switzerland France Germany Spain Bermuda Norway Czech Republic Greece 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 15 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600 index. Luxembourg (81%) and Italy (53%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while Greece (-54%) and Czech Republic (-16%) have the lowest estimated growth. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 6
FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio P/E Ratio Number of Companies CY 2014 15.3 283 Forward 13.8 283 CY 2015 13.8 283 The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is 13.8. Q3 2014 Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q3 2014 through Q2 2015 are 13%, 28%, 3% and 10%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q3 2014 through Q2 2015, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report. EARNINGS CALENDAR The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q3 2014. There are 0 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q3 2014 earnings during the week of January 5. Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q3 2014 Earnings Reported Report Report Report Q3 2014 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining STOXX 600 256 0 0 26 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 7
SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: JANUARY 5 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 8
TUESDAY: JANUARY 6 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 9
WEDNESDAY: JANUARY 7 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 10
THURSDAY: JANUARY 8 Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 11
FRIDAY: JANUARY 9 Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 12
SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings Scorecard Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported Index Basic Materials 59% 0% 41% 5% 32 33 Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 53% 10% 37% 6% 30 33 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 54% 8% 38% -4% 13 14 Energy 61% 11% 28% 6% 18 20 Financials 43% 14% 43% 6% 56 70 Healthcare 52% 13% 35% 7% 23 24 Industrials 47% 4% 49% -4% 47 48 Technology 73% 20% 7% 10% 15 15 Telecommunications Services 67% 0% 33% 5% 15 16 Utilities 29% 0% 71% -21% 7 9 STOXX 600 52.3% 8.6% 39.1% 4% 256 282 Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q3 2014 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 18.4% 22.2% 9.3% 13.7% 17.0% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 18.9% 11.5% 21.0% 66.9% 19.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 9.9% 14.8% 45.5% 83.9% 27.2% Energy -3.0% 2.7% 3.5% 10.1% 11.5% Financials 28.2% 19.8% 21.1% 18.9% -9.7% Healthcare 6.6% -1.5% 1.0% 2.6% 13.6% Industrials 7.7% 22.5% 22.9% 23.8% 23.9% Technology 35.5% 26.4% 24.7% 32.7% 35.2% Telecommunications Services -6.6% -0.8% -3.7% -1.0% 11.3% Utilities -3.4% 26.9% 14.3% 14.3% 35.7% STOXX 600 12.8% 12.4% 14.9% 23.4% 11.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 282 265 243 213 159 Exhibit 3C. STOXX 600: Q4 2014 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 43.0% 49.5% 23.6% 17.6% 12.8% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 23.6% 19.3% 23.6% 20.5% 16.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -15.2% -14.0% 11.6% 45.1% 0.9% Energy -12.9% 14.0% 17.1% 23.8% 10.3% Financials 386.2% 297.5% 221.3% 101.4% -55.1% Healthcare -3.8% -1.8% 3.1% 6.7% 8.9% Industrials -3.2% 31.9% 28.2% 31.8% 25.4% Technology 5.6% 7.4% 11.7% 16.9% 21.5% Telecommunications Services -42.4% -17.9% -21.9% 24.7% 14.3% Utilities 2.7% 18.1% -18.0% -12.9% 12.5% STOXX 600 27.9% 39.7% 39.9% 32.8% 4.8% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 258 257 247 200 143 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 13
Exhibit 4C. STOXX 600: Q1 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 46.9% 46.2% 28.8% 17.3% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 4.1% 17.0% 21.9% 30.3% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 16.7% 58.3% 80.9% 9.1% Energy -40.4% -6.9% -4.9% 7.3% Financials 40.5% 31.1% 36.4% 6.4% Healthcare -0.4% -6.6% 15.0% 21.8% Industrials 17.5% 34.1% 43.7% 48.9% Technology 21.3% 28.5% 38.8% 73.9% Telecommunications Services 38.5% 24.3% 88.9% 8.0% Utilities -27.8% -21.3% -8.3% -7.9% STOXX 600 2.6% 16.8% 21.3% 18.9% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 152 138 125 94 Exhibit 5C. STOXX 600: Q2 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul Basic Materials 18.5% 21.6% 12.8% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 13.1% 13.0% 179.1% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 20.3% 20.9% -39.6% Energy -29.6% 6.9% 11.5% Financials 82.9% 20.3% 3.9% Healthcare -4.8% -8.2% 15.4% Industrials 17.2% 19.0% 13.0% Technology 6.9% 7.9% 20.9% Telecommunications Services 22.9% 29.7% 6.3% Utilities -21.5% -24.4% 7.4% STOXX 600 9.5% 10.5% 29.5% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 152 130 106 Exhibit 6C. STOXX 600: Q3 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct Basic Materials -24.8% 24.1% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 84.9% 136.6% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 37.3% 11.3% Energy -25.0% 3.8% Financials 34.7% 14.4% Healthcare 4.5% 14.9% Industrials 14.9% 19.4% Technology 9.8% 16.3% Telecommunications Services 36.8% 14.8% Utilities 29.3% 10.3% STOXX 600 12.2% 20.6% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 150 113 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 14
Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2014 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 7.3% 12.5% 11.1% 13.4% 19.4% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 8.8% 8.0% 9.8% 12.7% 17.4% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 2.7% 4.0% 4.5% 6.3% 8.5% Energy -2.4% 6.6% 9.1% 9.5% 12.8% Financials 12.2% 14.3% 17.2% 17.0% 21.6% Healthcare -0.1% 0.8% 2.1% 4.7% 8.3% Industrials 7.7% 10.9% 14.7% 17.6% 20.3% Technology 24.8% 24.5% 25.2% 29.5% 34.6% Telecommunications Services -12.7% -8.9% -11.6% -5.8% 2.7% Utilities -19.4% -17.7% -17.4% -10.0% -5.3% STOXX 600 4.0% 6.8% 8.6% 10.8% 15.0% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 506 508 507 503 503 Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 12.3% 17.5% 16.7% 14.7% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 15.7% 16.5% 17.2% 16.0% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 8.6% 9.4% 9.7% 9.0% Energy -6.2% 10.7% 9.9% 9.4% Financials 21.4% 20.7% 18.9% 17.6% Healthcare 7.7% 9.3% 10.9% 9.1% Industrials 14.9% 17.2% 16.3% 16.0% Technology 18.6% 20.2% 18.8% 18.2% Telecommunications Services 10.9% 8.7% 8.8% 6.5% Utilities 2.0% 4.4% 5.6% 5.3% STOXX 600 12.0% 14.9% 14.5% 13.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate 506 505 503 502 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 15
Exhibit 9C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Basic Materials 13.3% 6.2% -8.0% 7.7% -20.9% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 24.8% 17.8% -1.0% -29.8% -3.0% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 25.8% 19.2% 41.1% 1.6% -11.3% Energy 23.7% -2.1% -21.8% -21.2% -25.2% Financials 2.3% -0.2% 33.6% -13.8% 2.5% Healthcare 2.1% -1.0% 1.0% -2.9% -6.5% Industrials 12.4% 31.0% 34.2% -10.4% -13.1% Technology 47.9% 47.2% 51.4% 13.7% 7.9% Telecommunications Services -11.9% -32.0% -28.1% -18.6% -10.9% Utilities 7.3% -19.0% -46.9% -60.7% -20.1% STOXX 600 11.1% 1.1% 1.9% -14.5% -9.5% Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Above 48% 45% 53% 45% 49% Match 8% 7% 7% 10% 9% Below 44% 48% 40% 44% 42% Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Surprise Factor 4.0% 7.4% 3.7% -0.8% -0.2% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_62 16
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