Towards a more balanced future

Sector Update 25 June 2018 Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2018 for India Research, Sales and Trading team. We request your ballot. Towards a more balanced future Some sanity finally against possible future shocks in crude oil supply Continued high oil prices finally resonated well with OPEC & non-opec countries, resulting in them agreeing to cut over compliance of agreed cuts over the weekend. This is expected to result in increase of ~1mnbopd of oil production in H2CY18, bringing much required balance to oil demand and supply. Even when oil prices went above USD140/bbl in 2008, or when oil prices were above USD100/bbl during 2011-14, OPEC did not wink a moment. This is the first agreed increase in production post 2005 and shows that ~USD75/bbl is somewhat a tipping point in the changed dynamics. IEA records a surplus capacity of 2.7mnbopd with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, which could well be used to balance possible shocks in supply from other countries. A balanced oil market is expected to bring much required relief to the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), in our view. Opportunism amid misfortune of others With effect from Jan 20, OPEC & non-opec countries decided to cut 1.8mnbopd of oil production. However, Venezuela and few others kept witnessing sharp decline in their oil production due to internal problems. Instead of adjusting to the changed dynamics, others kept squeezing the market resulting in compliance of 141% during Oct -May 18 among OPEC countries and 95% compliance among non-opec members. Brent spiked 34% during the period to USD75/bbl, causing worries for countries like India which imports ~80% of its oil requirements. Sanity prevails finally Continuous decline in Venezuelan production combined with US sanctions against Iran which could affect its oil production adversely, put pressure on OPEC and non-opec. They finally agreed to raise production by 1mnbopd with effect from July 2018. They would continue to watch oil prices and take appropriate decision in the next meeting in Dec 2018. The decision gives much needed respite against the chaos that Venezuela and Iran could bring to the oil markets in the coming months. It also gives respite against constant disruption seen in oil production in Libya and Nigeria. Broadly a balanced market The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report suggests oil demand of 99.2mnbopd in 2018, an increase of 1.4mnbopd over 20. Oil production growth from non-opec (including those non-opec countries which participated in the cut) is expected to be 1mnbopd. This shortfall of 0.4mnbopd requires increase of 0.8mnbopd in H2CY18 for a balanced market. Against this, OPEC has agreed to increase ~0.6mnbopd while another ~0.4mnbopd has been committed by non-opec. Considering that ramping up Swarnendu Bhushan Research Analyst (Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529 Abhinil Dahiwale Research Analyst (Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1566 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. 25 Motilal June 2018 Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/institutional-equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. 1

Exhibit 1: Valuation summary Company Reco CMP TP could also take some time, this would effectively leave the oil market broadly balanced in 2018. If the oil demand growth improves, it would again require OPEC & non-opec to raise their production, a decision that could now come only in Dec 18 and could result in further increase in oil prices. Stable oil prices would bring OMCs back to fore Barring few moments of confusion, auto fuels broadly appear to be deregulated amid high state levies as well as unwillingness of the central government to roll back excise hikes. As we mentioned in Looking Beyond the noise, June 2018, marketing segment accounts for 28-49% while auto fuels contribute 21-37% of total EBITDA of the OMCs. Our preference remains with IOCL with dividend yield of ~6%, FCF yield of 7.5% and further upgrades expected once polypropylene plant at Paradeep and LNG terminal at Ennore get commissioned in late FY20, not considered in our numbers. Upstream companies continue to face a catch 22 situation. There is no clarity on sharing of subsidies if oil prices spike. Considering that most of the production of ONGC and Oil India comes from nominated blocks, it is logical that the government may levy some subsidy on them. This would keep their realizations under check. Upside (%) Div. EPS (INR) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Yield FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 Refiners I O C L Buy 0 252 47.9 23.9 18.2 21.8 7.1 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 5.4 6.5 5.6 21.0 14.6 16.4 6.7 B P C L Buy 426 528 23.8 49.8 43.1 48.1 8.6 9.9 8.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 7.9 8.1 7.5 29.0 21.8 21.6 4.9 H P C L Buy 311 426 37.1 41.7 33.3 38.5 7.5 9.3 8.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 6.2 6.9 6.4 28.7 20.1 20.8 5.5 Upstream O N G C Buy 159 233 45.8 15.6 30.7 32.9 10.2 5.2 4.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.7 2.5 2.3 8.9 16.8 16.9 5.4 Oil India Buy 210 310 47.4 22.2 35.3 36.8 9.5 6.0 5.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 7.5 4.6 4.1 9.4 14.5 13.9 7.1 Gas transporter GAIL (India) Neutral 340 348 2.4 20.4 26.1 31.0 16.7 13.0 11.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 9.4 7.7 7.5 11.8 13.9 15.1 1.9 Guj.St.Petronet Neutral 182 182 0.1 12.2 12.3 12.9 14.2 14.1 13.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 10.2 10.1 9.7 14.4 13.0 12.4 1.3 Source: Company, MOSL 25 June 2018 2

Opportunism amid misfortune of others In the agreed production cut in November 2016, Venezuela was to cut its production by 0.1mnbopd. However, the US sanctions and continued disarray in the country resulted in sharp decline in Venezuelan production, reaching a compliance of as high as 681% recently. Similarly, Algeria s compliance reached +300% followed by Mexico s at ~300% and Algeria at ~200%. Instead of revising production cuts to these changes, other members continued with their individual cuts, resulting in average compliance of 114% for OPEC and 84% for non-opec. More recently, average compliance rose to 141% and 95% for OPEC and non-opec during Oct -May 18. This spiked oil prices from 55/bbl in Jan 2018 to USD75/bbl currently, causing worries for importers like India and China. Exhibit 2: Over compliance largely due to problems in Venezuela, Mexico, Algeria and Angola Agreed cuts (mnbopd) Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Actual compliance (%) Aug- Sep- Oct- Algeria 0.05 78 78 78 58 58 58 38 58 58 8 158 98 138 98 218 198 Angola 0.08 142 129 142 1 181 1 104 91 1 91 181 206 232 232 296 322 Ecuador 0.03 88 88 108 69 69 69 31 31 31 69 31 108 108 146 108 108 Equatorial Guinea 0.01 83 250 167 167 83 0 83 83 83 83 83 167 Gabon 0.01 22 22 78 22 22 22 (200) 244 133 (89) (89) 22 (89) 22 (89) 22 Iran (0.09) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Iraq 0.21 53 67 62 67 39 29 34 34 15 77 62 34 39 39 58 72 Kuwait 0.13 98 98 106 98 90 98 105 105 98 105 98 105 105 105 105 98 Qatar 0.03 127 193 127 93 60 93 127 127 227 127 93 127 93 160 160 160 Saudi Arabia 0.49 153 116 126 120 128 102 106 120 118 102 122 118 116 116 128 128 UAE 0.14 38 60 74 60 60 60 53 60 60 60 81 103 1 153 103 103 Venezuela 0.10 18 18 39 49 71 28 39 81 134 186 313 481 481 544 681 681 OPEC-12 1.2 105 90 100 95 95 77 75 86 87 101 120 132 138 147 165 2 151 Libya Nigeria No quota No quota Azerbaijan 0.04 34 83 207 85 85 56 53 215 61 37 65 10 (3) 22 55 80 Kazakhstan 0.02 (199) (138) (324) (218) (54) NA NA 162 (111) 54 (583) (564) (520) (604) (677) (714) Mexico 0.1 73 79 71 77 79 91 112 195 401 231 266 285 213 260 283 296 Oman 0.05 103 86 101 99 91 95 100 97 80 79 109 63 100 106 100 94 Russia 0.3 39 40 59 77 91 93 92 104 106 97 90 88 88 87 82 83 Others 0.05 31 (40) (28) 86 (13) (55) (69) 59 46 48 (2) 24 54 25 (3) (77) Total non-opec 0.6 40 38 51 70 74 66 68 126 142 111 90 88 81 86 84 80 138 *May-18 data has been taken from OPEC, detailed data is provided by IEA- not available to non-subscribers so far Sanity prevails finally Nov- Dec- Jan- 18 Feb- 18 Mar- 18 Apr- 18 May- 18* Source: IEA, OPEC, MOSL Continued fall in Venezuelan production had been a cause of worry. Recently, the government added to the woes by arresting few Chevron employees and releasing them after some time. The country appears to be in chaos with riots for food happening amid triple digit inflation. US sanctions have made things even worse and it is expected that there could be a sharp decline in Venezuelan production going forward. 25 June 2018 3

Similarly, while Iran has shown a brave face against the US sanctions, several countries have already started complying with the sanctions. Reports suggest that RIL and Nayara (erstwhile Essar Oil) have also started cutting down on imports from Iran. The US sanctions could easily take off ~1mnbopd of production from Iran. Situation from Libya and Nigeria have been no better with frequent disruptions. With OPEC and non-opec agreeing to keep the compliance of production cuts at 100%, it would certainly take off the risk of disruptions that Venezuela, Iran and other countries could cause to the oil market! Exhibit 3: Venezuelan oil production falls off the cliff! Venezuelan production (mnbopd) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 May-18 Source: BP Statistical Review, OPEC, MOSL Exhibit 4: Iranian oil production could suffer from the US sanctions Iran oil production (mnbopd) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 May-18 Source: BP Statistical Review, OPEC, MOSL Exhibit 5: Libyan oil production (kbopd) Exhibit 6: Nigerian oil production (kbopd) 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Libya Dec- Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 1850 1800 50 00 1650 1600 Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nigeria Nov- Dec- Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Source: OPEC, MOSL Source: OPEC, MOSL 25 June 2018 4

Broadly a balanced market IEA suggest that global oil demand growth would be 1.4mnbopd in 2018. Growth mainly coming from India, China and the US. Against this, non-opec countries were expected to increase production by 1mnbopd. This classification includes the countries that agreed along with OPEC to cut production in Nov 2016. This called for an increase of 0.4mnbopd in production for full 2018 or 0.8mnbopd for H2CY18. Against this, OPEC has decided to increase its production by ~0.6mnbopd from July 2018 while non-opec countries (those who had agreed to cut production in Nov 2016) have agreed for another ~0.4mnbopd of supply. Considering that increase of production would also take some time to ramp up, this would broadly mean a balanced demand and supply for 2018. IEA records a surplus capacity of 2.7mnbopd with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. This could be sufficient to keep the oil market balanced amid possible supply shocks from other suppliers. Exhibit 7: Oil demand growth (mnbopd) 20 2018 Incremental Africa 4.3 4.4 0.1 Americas 31.4 31.7 0.3 Asia Pacific 33.9 34.7 0.8 Europe 15.1 15.2 0.1 FSU 4.7 4.8 0.1 Mid East 8.3 8.4 0.1 Total 97.7 99.2 1.4 Source: IEA, MOSL Exhibit 8: Supply growth without recent announcement Supply (mnbopd) 20 2018 Increase Americas 20.3 22.0 1.7 Europe 3.5 3.4 (0.1) Asia Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.0 Total OECD 24.2 25.9 1.7 Former USSR 14.4 14.4 0.0 Europe 0.1 0.1 0.0 China 3.9 3.8 (0.1) Other Asia 3.5 3.4 (0.1) Latin America 4.5 4.6 0.1 Mid East 1.2 1.2 0.0 Africa 1.7 1.8 0.1 Total non-oecd 29.3 29.3 0.0 Processing gains 2.3 2.3 0.0 Global bio-fuels 2.4 2.5 0.1 Total non-opec 59.0 60.0 1.0 Source: IEA, MOSL Exhibit 9: Production quotas by OPEC and oil prices 2 1 0 (1) (2) (3) Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Change in OPEC quota (m bopd)-lhs Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Brent (USD/bbl)-RHS OPEC & non-opec have decided to raise production by 1mnbopd from July 2018 Even non-opec countries like Russia & Mexico agreed for 0.6mnbopd cut in addition to 1.2mnbopd cut by OPEC Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan- Jul- Jan-18 Jul-18 150 100 50 0 Source: OPEC, MOSL 25 June 2018 5

Exhibit 10: Surplus capacity as per IEA (mnbopd) Atleast Saudi Arabia, Iraq & Kuwait could balance oil markets against possible future supply shocks 2.12 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.34 0.22 0.03 0.33 0.04 Algeria Angola Ecuador Equatorial Guinea Gabon Iran Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Source: IEA, MOSL Exhibit 11: A balanced oil market in 2018 2018 Against this, OPEC/non-OPEC have agreed for increase of ~1mnbopd 0.4 for full yr or 0.8 for H2CY18 1.4 1 Incremental demand Incremental supply without OPEC/non-OPEC increase Source: BP Statistical Review, OPEC, MOSL OMCs are expected to be back in vogue with a balanced oil market Balanced oil market would keep oil prices under check with a downward bias. Our assumption of ~USD70/bbl of Brent largely takes into account how oil market could behave once actual production increase kicks in. The auto fuel prices have already accustomed to a Brent of ~USD75/bbl. If oil prices do not spike from here, we do not see much risk to auto fuel margins. Slowly, the OMCs would be able to raise it to INR2.5/lit that we have assumed in our forecasts. Marketing segment accounts for 28-49% of the total EBITDA of the OMCs. Auto fuels account for even lower contribution of 21-37%. We continue to prefer OMCs. Our preference remains with IOCL. We expect EBITDA and PAT CAGR of ~10% during FY18-20E. Dividend yield is strong ~6% and FCF yield also remains strong at ~7.5%. The company would also get a boost from Ennore LNG terminal and polypropylene plant coming up at Paradeep, both in late FY20 and not considered in our numbers. See our recently released report- Looking Beyond the Noise, June 2018 for further details. Upstream companies- ONGC and Oil India face a Catch 22 situation. Since most of their production comes from nominated blocks, they are more likely to share subsidies for LPG and kerosene, thus capping their realizations. 25 June 2018 6

Exhibit 12: Valuation summary Company Reco CMP TP Upside (%) Div. EPS (INR) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Yield FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 Refiners I O C L Buy 0 252 47.9 23.9 18.2 21.8 7.1 9.4 7.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 5.4 6.5 5.6 21.0 14.6 16.4 6.7 B P C L Buy 426 528 23.8 49.8 43.1 48.1 8.6 9.9 8.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 7.9 8.1 7.5 29.0 21.8 21.6 4.9 H P C L Buy 311 426 37.1 41.7 33.3 38.5 7.5 9.3 8.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 6.2 6.9 6.4 28.7 20.1 20.8 5.5 Upstream O N G C Buy 159 233 45.8 15.6 30.7 32.9 10.2 5.2 4.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.7 2.5 2.3 8.9 16.8 16.9 5.4 Oil India Buy 210 310 47.4 22.2 35.3 36.8 9.5 6.0 5.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 7.5 4.6 4.1 9.4 14.5 13.9 7.1 Gas transporter GAIL (India) Neutral 340 348 2.4 20.4 26.1 31.0 16.7 13.0 11.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 9.4 7.7 7.5 11.8 13.9 15.1 1.9 Guj.St.Petronet Neutral 182 182 0.1 12.2 12.3 12.9 14.2 14.1 13.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 10.2 10.1 9.7 14.4 13.0 12.4 1.3 Source: Company, MOSL 25 June 2018 7

Explanation of Investment Rating Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month) BUY >=15% SELL < - 10% NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15% UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation *In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend. Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. 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Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: SEBI Registration: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 397. Investment Adviser: INA000007100.IRDA Corporate Agent-CA0541. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products 25 June 2018 8