2nd Feb 2017 Monthly Report On Other Commodities Other Commodities February 2017
SUGAR Forward curve of Sugar M futures Historic returns of Sugar futures during month of February 3,900.00 8% 3,880.00 3,880.00 6% 5.58% 3,860.00 3,840.00 3,820.00 4% 2% -2% -0.44% -0.07% 0.14% 2.26% 0.94% 1.14% 3,800.00 3,780.00 3,760.00 3,811.00 3,811.00-4% -6% -8% -4.05% -3.27% -5.99% 3606 3682 3747 3823 3888 3964 4029 Sugar futures (March) may remain steady in the range of 3745-3900 levels. In the Union Budget, Govt. announced Rs 9,000 crore higher allocation for payment of sugarcane arrears. Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) in second advance estimate has revised country's sugar production lower at 213 lakh tonnes for sugar season Oct-Sept (2016-17) from 234 lakh tonnes estimated earlier in September 2016 due to lower yield and slightly lower sugar recoveries in parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra. Considering 213 lac tons of sugar production as per 2nd advance estimates of ISMA, sugar despatches of 242 lac tons in the whole 2016-17 SS and a high opening balance of 77.5 lac tons for the season, the closing stock of sugar as on 30th September 2017 will be 48.5 lac tons. ISMA believes that there is enough sugar to meet the domestic requirement and yet leave a healthy balance for the next sugar season, before new sugar from the new season is available in the market from end of Oct, 2017. The sale in January 2017 also seems to be lower as compared to last year, when sugar mills had sold 25 lakh tonnes. Assuming that in the balance 8 months of the current season i.e. from February to September 2017, there are similar sugar sales in comparison to last year and assuming that the sugar sales/despatches are similar to last year, the sugar sales in the current season up to September 2017, will be around 242 lakh tonnes. Generally, sugar mills start latest immediately after Diwali, when labour is available for harvesting. Diwali this year is on 19th October. Also because of surplus sugarcane production next season, mills will start early. Therefore, new season s sugar should be available from the end of October 2017. The government is likely to finalise its sugar output estimate for 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) by mid-february after evaluating cane production data from the agriculture ministry and discussions with major sugar producing states. The fundamentals of sugar on the international market reveal that Mills in the Centre-South region of Brazil produced 35,000 tn of sugar in the first fortnight of January, up 34.1% on year, according to the country's sugarcane industry association. 2
KAPAS Kapas futures Seasonal Index Historic returns of Kapas futures during month of February 1.06 1.04 35% 3 30.55% 1.02 25% 2 1.00 0.98 15% 1 10.24% 0.96 5% 3.28% 0.94 0.92 0.90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -5% -1-15% -4.58% -8.52% -10.3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 886 924 964 1002 1042 1080 1120 Kapas futures (April) may trade in the range of 965-1070 levels. The upside may remain limited as already the counter has witnessed a prolonged rally during last month & in days to come, factors such as profit booking from higher levels & lesser demand at higher prices may cap the upside. The supply of raw cotton was improving from lower level prompting leading purchasers to stay off the trading floor in anticipation that prices will maintain their downward as supply improves. Cotton arrivals touched 146.5 lakh bales as of 30 January 2017. Arrivals have been gaining momentum of late as kapas prices have risen sharply. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its estimate for India's 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) cotton output by 0.5 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from its October estimates to 34.1 million bales. For the current season ended September, production in the central zone, which includes Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, was estimated at 19.9 million bales, against 18.5 million bales in the previous year. The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI estimated total cotton supply for the 2016-17 season (which began on October 1 last year) at 404 lakh bales. The domestic consumption is estimated at 290 lakh bales, leaving a surplus of 114 lakh bales. The arrivals of cotton during the ongoing 2016-17 crop year are estimated to be lower than those up to the same period last year due to holding back of seed cotton by farmers. Cotton Outlook (Cotlook) raised its world output forecast for the 2016/17 crop year through end-july by 194,000 tonnes to 22.65 million tonnes. The world demand forecast by 141,000 tonnes to 23.89 million tonnes. That is up from 23.68 million tonnes the previous year. World inventories to fall by 1.24 million tones. The International Cotton Advisory Committee predicts that world cotton output will rise by 2% to 23.4 million tons. After improving by 13% to 781 kg/ha in 2016/17, the world average yield is projected to decline by 2% to 764 kg/ha. World cotton stocks are expected to decline by 6% at the end of 2016/17 to 18.1 million tons as China reduces its stocks by 17% to 9.3 million tons. In 2017/18, India s cotton area is forecast to recover by 7% to 11.2 million hectares as firm domestic cotton prices and less attractive prices for competing crops attract more farmers to cotton. Assuming a national average yield of 530 kg/ha, production will increase by 1% to 6 million tons. India s exports are forecast to fall by 7% to 875,000 tons in 2017/18. 3
COTTON OIL SEED CAKE Forward curve of Cotton oil seed cake futures Historic returns of Cotton oil seed cake futures during month of February 2,360.00 14% 2,340.00 2,320.00 2,300.00 2,303.00 2,338.00 12% 1 8% 6% 4.97% 5.41% 5.0 11.2 5.39% 8.39% 2,280.00 2,260.00 2,268.00 4% 2% 0.83% 2,240.00 2,220.00 2,236.00-2% -4% -0.13% -0.46% 2,200.00 2,180.00 February March April May -6% -8% -5.94% -5.59% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1925 2021 2145 2241 2365 2461 2585 Cotton oil seed cake (March) may trade in the range of 2190-2350 levels. Buying may again emerge from lower levels as stockiest will possibly re-enter & buy aggressively on the spot markets. Cotton oilcake is observing subdued tone at the key Kadi market of Gujarat amid weakening demand. The demand from cattle feed manufacturer is declining as such high prices are unfavourable for them and they have completed bulk buying when prices were around Rs 2,000/100kg for their long term requirement. Most of the cattle feed manufacturer are shifting to other cattle feed products like tur churi, guar churi and bajra churi as all these products are trading in the range of Rs 1,500-1,700/100kg. The stockiest have sidelined themselves as they are waiting for the prices to correct further so that they can buy aggressively. The stockiest have slowed down their stocking activity as they think that cotton oil cake price has less room to rally any more in coming week as the demand in retail market is very limited at higher level. Ginners are selling cotton seed as they are anticipating the prices may not rise in coming days as few buyer at higher level are active. Crushers have reduced crushing of cottonseed as the disparity in crushing has widened to Rs 650 per tonne. Due to good monsoon this year the availability of other products such as Tur churi, Bajara churi, Chana Churi & Guar Churi would be higher and cost of these products is lower as compared to cotton oilcake. Cattle feed manufacturers may change the composition of cattle feed and replace cotton oilcake with above mentioned churi s to some extent so price of cotton oilcake may drop ahead. Demand from cattle feed manufacturers may not increase at higher level as there input cost will increase resulting heavy losses to them. 4
GUAR SEED & GUAR GUM Forward curve of Guar seed & Guar gum futures Historic returns of Guar seed & Guar gum futures during month of February 4,000.00 3,950.00 3,971.00 3,971.00 6,495.00 6,550.00 6,500.00 6,450.00 1 5% 4.21% 5.56% 8.31% 3,900.00 3,850.00 3,800.00 3,750.00 3,823.00 6,258.00 3,867.00 6,337.00 6,416.00 6,400.00 6,350.00 6,300.00 6,250.00 6,200.00 6,150.00-5% -1-15% -2.04% -6.89% -5.43% 0.38% -8.54% -4.08% 3,700.00 February March April May 6,100.00-2 -17.27% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 3065 3177 3247 3359 3429 3541 3611 5905 6096 6217 6408 6529 6720 6841 Guar seed futures (March) may witness consolidation in the range of 3245-3430 levels. Guar gum futures (March) may witness consolidation in the range of 6240-6520 levels. The fundamentals of guar complex are bearish amid larger inventories, lower export demand of guar gum & prospects of higher output. Guarseed and Guargum are declining in spot markets of Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat on mainly due to steady supply. Crushers are not buying Guarseed in large quantity due to lower than expected demand for Guargum. Further crushers have decent inventory of Guargum, which is prompting them to source the commodity in limited quantity only. The crop is sufficient to cater domestic and exports demand followed by higher carry over stocks from previous crop 2015-16. According to second advance estimates released by Gujarat agriculture department Guarseed production in the state during 2016-17 stood at 2.32 lakh tonnes versus 1.32 lakh tonnes estimated earlier in September during first advance estimate. Guarseed production was last year at 1.86 lakh tonnes. Meanwhile Haryana agriculture department in second advance estimate projected Guarseed crop at 2.83 lakh tonnes, while Rajasthan agri department estimated crop at 19.62 lakh tonnes in first advance estimated. Guarseed production in these three states sum at 24.77 lakh tonnes. Guargum demand is not very enthusiastic to push Guarseed/Guargum prices on the higher side. More than 80 percent of crushing plants are closed since last couple of years due to disparity and poor exports demand and now only 20 percent of crushing plants are operations and they also working below capacity. The situation in worrisome of the industry unless demand for Guargum improve significantly. According to trade experts Guargum exports should rise to more than 30,000 metric tonnes. Present average monthly exports are between 15,000-20,000 metric tonnes. 5
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