Cathay Pacific. Neutral. Pax performance beat SIA's; end Oct cargo pick-up is positive for CX and KAL which are the world's #2 and #3 largest

Similar documents
Charting the Course. Can MXAPJ Sustain Jan Rally? Rotational Opportunities Best; Asia Technicals Strategy

Kerry Properties. Neutral. Short-term trading opportunities from Conditional Dividend - ALERT

Brazil Economic Outlook for 2013

Li & Fung. Neutral. Changes in Wal-Mart buying agency agreement, marginally positive - ALERT

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

Upwards and Onwards: China s Outbound M&A

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co. Ltd.

Asia Analyst Focus List

Timing of Equity Risk Premia

Chalco. Divestment of iron ore asset a positive move - ALERT

Pacific Basin Shipping

Baoshan Iron & Steel - A

Airlines. Global and AsiaPac airlines' passenger traffic growth remain solid while cargo demand has bottomed out

Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

Comments to the IMF Presentation

Pico Far East Holdings Limited

Globe Union Industrial Corp

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Maritime(Transportation

Ryanair. Neutral. FQ2:15 Results - 60 Second Update - ALERT

CDS Market Update: New 2014 CDS Definitions and Market Infrastructure

Jun-06. Jul-06. May-06. JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)(Formerly known as J.P. Morgan Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.)

What do equity markets think about AASB 17?

Notes on the outlook, for presentation to the NY Fed EAP Michael Feroli Chief U.S. Economist

Emerging Markets Bond Index Global CORE (EMBIG CORE) Product Overview

NAV FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Beijing Enterprises Water

China Retail Sales May 2014

China Oriental. Overweight HK$ January 2007 Price Target: HK$2.69. Attractive valuations

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Managed Care. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of 2016 MA Landscape File HUM & AET Leading Rate Increases

Business & Education Services

China oil and gas. Diesel demand rebounded strongly in June; natural gas supplies grew 12% Y/Y in 1H13

IT and BPO Services. Takeaways from an Industry Conference - Positive

Sound Global Limited. Neutral. Resumption of trading and PT revision

China oil and gas. Independent refiners to add to capacity glut with access to crude oil imports and expansions this year

China Steel sector. End September steel output edges higher

Grupo Bimbo. Overweight. 4Q09 Results - Even Sweeter Than Expected - ALERT

E M D E B T : P R O V E N R E S I L I E N C E T H R O U G H T H E C R E D I T C Y C L E

J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Risk-Aware Bond Index

4Q preview: expecting a recovery of mobile game and stable PC game revenue; mobile ads is the key focal point

Integrated Oils. Coverage Update

China Overseas Land & Investment

Global Credit Strategy 2017 Soundbites

China Citic Bank - H Share

Philippine Banks. Recent efforts from Pag-IBIG not a game-changer. JPM-pp1

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.

Tsingtao Brewery - H. Underweight. Decelerating core brand volume growth presents downside risk to margins

Shanghai Pharmaceutical - H

WCT Berhad. Overweight. Post 3QFY12 results analysts' briefing highlights - ALERT

Reserve diversification without the yen has limited value

FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Hemaraj Land & Development PCL

China Auto Drivers. Volume up, inventory down - again

Li Ning Co Ltd. Neutral. FY15 Result - Analysing Positives/Negatives of Commentary Following 7% Intraday Move

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Company Ltd.

Gerdau. Earnings recovery to be slower than expected; Downgrading to Neutral

Europcar Groupe S.A. Auto Rental Trade Idea: Swap out of the FRNs due 2013 into the 9.75% Sr. Sec. Notes due 2017

Weg. Underweight. Update on Energy Concessions and Establishing Dec 2014 PT

Eye on China Consumers - MNC View Series 94

Healthcare - Asian Year Ahead 2013

ITC Limited. Overweight. 1Q FY13: Good earnings delivery led by healthy cigarette EBIT growth

Equity Strategy. Mislav Matejka, CFA AC. Emmanuel Cau, CFA AC. Prabhav Bhadani. Aditi Balachandar, CFA. Global Equity Strategy December 2016

Is inflation dead? A discussion

Airlines. Tigerair forms another alliance; this time with Cebu Air; +ve for CEB and TGR, but -ve for AirAsia

PAX Global Technology Ltd

Ryanair. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Overweight

Xinyi Glass. Overweight. Lifting PT to HK$12 - Winner from trend of lower energy costs

China Mengniu Dairy Co. Ltd.

Dry Bulk Shipping. Freight rates fell, driven by weaker Panamax/Supramax market; China's iron ore inventories at ports also fell

October Global Equity Derivative and Quantitative Strategies

Fu Shou Yuan International

China Auto Drivers. Nov sales prediction+ Dongfeng Motor- still net cash in 2013?

D3 Merger Talks Surface

FY09A FY10A FY11E FY12E

Equity Strategy. Global Equity Strategy January 2017

Semiconductors. August Semi Sales - QTD Trends Remain Constructive - Maintaining 8% Industry Growth Outlook in 2014

Gamuda. Overweight. 3QFY13 results review positive momentum continues

Egypt: How to reconcile structural reforms with short-term priorities?

Beijing Capital International Airport

Telecom & Networking Equipment/IT Hardware

Dry Bulk Shipping. Spot rates continued to rise but forward rates have started to moderate given the low season

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of VINCENT COVRIG at CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY NORTHRI

Fairfax Media Limited

China Coal Energy. 1Q14 results miss - Guidance for 1H14 to fall

PD F&D and RODD PD F&D and RODD Increased; Data Suggest the Need for Higher Natural Gas Prices

KPJ Healthcare Berhad (KPJ MK)

Semiconductors. Agenda for J.P. Morgan's 13th Annual CES Technology Forum on January 6, 2015

2011 SECURITIES LENDING OUTLOOK

Greatview Aseptic Packaging

Corrected Note (See page 11 for details). Note originally published 23 May 2011.

Shipyards & Oil Services

JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Shifting Tides. Maritime Shipping Weekly. Oil Tankers

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Air France-KLM. Hold TP 6.50 CP 7.59 (Close 21 October 2013) Q3 due 31 October More restructuring needed. Equity Research Quick Bite Preview

U S N A T U R A L G A S F U N D A M E N T A L S

Transcription:

Cathay Pacific Pax performance beat SIA's; end cargo pick-up is positive for CX and KAL which are the world's #2 and #3 largest Neutral 0293.HK, 293 HK Price: HK$15.30 Price Target: HK$14.30 performance beat SIA s: Pax traffic growth accelerated in, 6% higher y/y (highest y/y growth since May, 20) and ahead of SIA s 1% growth and its steady level ytd and 2% growth in 20. On a m/m* basis (daily number in vs Sep 2013 to adjust for the longer month in ), traffic rose 1% and was in line with seasonality. Cathay s daily traffic has historically been 1% higher m/m* in the past 24 years. Pax load factor rose 3ppts y/y and was steady m/m at 82%. In comparison, SIA s loads rose 1ppt y/y but fell 1ppt m/m to 79%. Utilization improved in all major route regions: Pax load factor rose on all routes, with NE Asia routes showing the largest improvement (+ppts y/y to 80%), followed by the 3ppts y/y rise on SW Pacific & S Africa/India Subcont & Middle East/SE Asia routes to 83%/74%/79%. Loads also rose 1ppt y/y each on Europe/China routes to 85%/71% but were steady y/y on China-N America routes at 87%. Mgmt said "premium traffic continued to pick up in ober as (Cathay) entered the peak season for corporate travel, and business was spurred by the start of Canton Fair in Guangzhou. Demand out of (CX s) home markets, HK and the Pearl River Delta, was robust in ober and (CX) saw good loads across the network, particularly in Economy Class on long-haul routes. Capacity began to rise for the first time this year as (CX) raised frequencies on some routes and added 2 new destinations Male, Siem Reap. Cargo demand held steady y/y but picked up on US routes in end, which is a positive read-through for Korean Air: Traffic was flat y/y in, better than its 4% decline in Sep, 3% decline ytd and 7% drop in full year 20 and SIA s 3% y/y fall. On a m/m* basis, cargo traffic rose 5%, in line with seasonality. CX s traffic has historically been 5% higher m/m* in past 24 years. Cargo LF fell 3ppts y/y but rose 2ppts m/m to 62%. In comparison, SIA s loads were steady y/y and rose 1ppt m/m to 64%. Mgmt said the expected airfreight peak was late in arriving but by end (CX) began to see a significant climb in tonnages being shipped out of the key manufacturing centres in Mainland China and Asia, driven by consumer IT products. (CX) began to ramp up freighter capacity on N American lanes and mounted extra sectors and charters, but demand to/from Europe remained softer than hoped. Capacity was boosted by CX s latest freighter destination, Guadalajara, on 19". Cathay Pacific (Reuters: 0293.HK, Bloomberg: 293 HK) HK$ in mn, year-end Dec FYA FYA FY13E FY14E FY15E Revenue (HK$ mn) 98,406 99,376 99,493 104,988 0,671 Net Profit (HK$ mn) 5,501 916 1,276 2,636 3,495 EPS (HK$) 1.40 0.23 0.32 0.67 0.89 DPS (HK$) 0.52 0.08 0. 0.23 0.30 Revenue growth (%) 9.9% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5% 5.4% EPS growth (%) (60.8%) (83.3%) 39.3% 106.6% 32.5% ROCE 5.0% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 3.1% ROE 10.0% 1.6% 2.2% 4.5% 5.7% P/E (x) 10.9 65.7 47.2 22.8 17.2 P/BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 10.6 8.9 8.0 7.4 Dividend Yield 3.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 2.0% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Hong Kong Airlines Corrine Png AC Bloomberg JPMA PNG <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Price Performance 16.0 15.0 HK$ 14.0 13.0.0 Nov- Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 0293.HK share price (HK$) HSI (rebased) YTD 1m 3m m Abs 0.3% 6.1% -0.3%.2% Rel 0.8% 0.2% 1.7% -1.0% Company Data Shares O/S (mn) 3,934 Market Cap (HK$ mn) 60,190 Market Cap ($ mn) 7,763 Price (HK$) 15.30 Date Of Price 18 Nov 13 Free Float(%) 34.7% 3M - Avg daily volume (mn) 3.20 3M - Avg daily value (HK$ 47.14 mn) 3M - Avg daily value ($ mn) 6.1 HSI 2,3032.15 Exchange Rate 7.75 Fiscal Year End Dec See page 6 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-us analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Company Description P&L Sensitivity Metrics EBITDA EPS 2013E impact (%) impact (%) Provides passenger and cargo transportation services. Passenger traffic assumption +1% +1% Owns 20.13% of Air China Impact of each 1ppt increase +6% +37% Positive drivers: 1) global traffic growth accelerates, Cargo traffic assumption -2% -2% 2) good catchment area given its proximity to China, Impact of each 1ppt increase +2% +% 3) more synergies from tie-up with Air China, 4) management s aim to reduce unit costs longer term, Jet fuel price assumption 5 5 5) weaker US dollar. Impact of each $1/bbl increase -1% -9% Negative drivers: 1) rising fuel prices, 2) overly aggressive capacity expansion, 3) weaker-thanexpected profits from Air China, 4) rising competition from airlines with ambitious expansion plans (e.g. Hong Kong Airlines, Middle Eastern carriers, budget airlines), 5) greater diversion of China-Taiwan traffic via HK to direct cross-straits flights. 1H13 Revenue Breakdown Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. *Large earnings sensitivity due to small profit base. Price Target & Valuation Analysis Our Jun-14 PT of HK$14.3 is based on 1.0x P/B, a 25% discount to Cathay's historical average valuation since 1998 as we expect its profitability to remain weak near term (2013E ROE 2% vs historical average of 8.5%) due to the industry oversupply and rising competition risks from the Chinese airlines and low cost carriers. PB Table Average 1.2 +1 Standard Deviation 1.5-1 Standard Deviation 0.9 Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Figure 1: P/BV Trading Range Since 1990 Source: Company data EPS: J.P. Morgan vs Consensus HK$ J. P. Morgan Consensus FY13E 0.32 0.63 FY14E 0.67 1.16 FY15E 0.89 1.50 Source: Bloomberg, JPM estimates. Peer Group Valuation Comparison Table Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Key upside risks: 1) better-than-expected traffic growth, 2) sharp fall in jet fuel prices, 3) better-than-expected profits from Air China, 4) reduced competition from airlines with ambitious expansion plans (e.g. Hong Kong Airlines, Middle Eastern carriers, budget airlines), 5) less than expected diversion of China-Taiwan traffic via HK to direct cross-straits flights, 6) potential Cathay-Air China merger in long term. Key downside risks: 1) sharp rise in jet fuel prices, 2) weaker-thanexpected contribution from Air China, 3) intensive competition from Hong Kong Airlines, Middle Eastern carriers, budget airlines, 4) substantial capex and potential rise in funding costs given higher financial leverage. Price P/E P/BV (x) ROE Stock 15-Nov-13 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E Rec Code (LC) (X) (X) (X) (X) (%) (%) Cathay Pacific N 293 HK 15.00 46.2 22.4 1.0 1.0 2.2% 4.5% Singapore Airlines OW SIA SP 10.33 35.0.4 0.9 0.9 2.7% 7.5% Sector Average 26.1 15.8 1.0 1.0 1.6% 7.7% Source: Bloomberg, annual reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Consensus forecasts for non-covered (NC) stocks to calculate sector average. 2014E and 2015E March year end for SIA. 2

Table 1: Cathay Pacific: Detailed Passenger Route Analysis -13 - Y/Y Chg M/M* Chg YTD-13 YTD- Y/Y Chg Passenger Traffic (RPKm) 8,857 8,348 6% 1% 86,797 86,971 0% China 705 686 3% -2% 6,951 6,645 5% NE Asia 1,165 994 17% 8%,0 10,140 9% SE Asia 1,187 1,197-1% 5%,070,707 3% India, Middle East, Pakistan and Sri Lanka 657 659 0% 4% 6,693 6,957-4% Europe 1,554 1,519 2% -10% 15,896 15,554 2% SW Pacific & S Africa 1,205 1,166 3% 3%,586,656-1% N America 2,384 2,9 % 5% 22,589 24,342-7% Passenger Capacity (ASKm) 10,866 10,664 2% 1% 105,502 108,540-3% China 996 980 2% 2% 9,594 9,137 5% NE Asia 1,451 1,457 0% 6% 14,093 14,079 0% SE Asia 1,503 1,567-4% 3% 15,083 14,860 2% India, Middle East, Pakistan and Sri Lanka 887 929-5% 3% 8,827 9,185-4% Europe 1,824 1,813 1% -7% 18,029 18,175-1% SW Pacific & S Africa 1,459 1,469-1% 3% 14,485 15,263-5% N America 2,746 2,452 % 2% 25,389 27,839-9% Passenger Load Factor (%) 81.5% 78.3% 3.2ppt 0.1ppt 82.3% 80.1% 2.1ppt China 70.8% 70.0% 0.8ppt -2.7ppt 72.4% 72.7% -0.3ppt NE Asia 80.3% 68.2%.1ppt 2.1ppt 78.1% 72.0% 6.1ppt SE Asia 79.0% 76.3% 2.6ppt 1.4ppt 80.0% 78.8% 1.2ppt India, Middle East, Pakistan and Sri Lanka 74.1% 71.0% 3.1ppt 0.5ppt 75.8% 75.7% 0.1ppt Europe 85.2% 83.8% 1.4ppt -3.5ppt 88.2% 85.6% 2.6ppt SW Pacific & S Africa 82.6% 79.4% 3.2ppt -0.1ppt 80.0% 76.4% 3.6ppt N America 86.8% 86.8% 0.0ppt 2.3ppt 89.0% 87.4% 1.5ppt Source: Company reports. *M/M change refers to the daily number in, 2013 vs Sep, 2013 to adjust for the longer month in. Table 2: Cathay Pacific vs Singapore Airlines ober 2013 Summary Operating Statistics Cathay Pacific SIA -13 Y/Y Chg M/M* Chg YTD-13 Y/Y Chg -13 Y/Y Chg M/M* Chg YTD-13 Y/Y Chg Traffic Passenger (RPKm) 8,857 6% 1% 86,797 0% 7,908 1% -5% 79,374 3% Cargo (FTKm) 781 0% 5% 7,054-3% 545-3% -2% 5,383-5% Overall (RTKm) 1,623 3% 3% 15,300-2% 1,325-1% -3% 13,219-1% Capacity Passenger (ASKm) 10,866 2% 1% 105,502-3% 10,069 0% -3% 100,249 3% Cargo (AFTKm) 1,269 4% 1%,490 1% 857-3% -3% 8,594-6% Overall (ATKm) 2,302 3% 1% 21,523-1% 1,914-2% -3% 19,098-2% Load factor Passenger (%) 82% 3.2ppt 0.1ppt 82% 2.1ppt 79% 0.7ppt -1.4ppt 79% 0.3ppt Cargo (%) 62% -2.5ppt 2.3ppt 61% -2.5ppt 64% -0.3ppt 0.6ppt 63% 0.1ppt Overall (%) 70% 0.0ppt 1.3ppt 71% -0.4ppt 69% 0.1ppt -0.5ppt 69% 1.0ppt Source: Company reports. *M/M change refers to the daily number in, 2013 vs Sep, 2013 to adjust for the longer month in. 3

Figure 2: Cathay Pacific: P/BV Trading Range Since Listing Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Figure 3: Singapore Airlines: P/BV Trading Range Since 1990 Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. 4

Cathay Pacific: Summary of Financials Income Statement Cash flow statement HK$ in millions, year end Dec FY FY FY13E FY14E FY15E HK$ in millions, year end Dec FY FY FY13E FY14E FY15E Revenues 98,406 99,376 99,493 104,988 0,671 EBIT 5,500 1,788 2,594 4,004 4,9 % change Y/Y 9.9% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5% 5.4% Depr. & amortization 6,209 6,861 8,137 9,6 10,366 EBITDA,709 8,649 10,732 13,0 15,277 Change in working capital 4,658 685 (482) 831 859 % change Y/Y (32.9%) (26.1%) 24.1% 22.2% 16.4% Taxes - - - - - EBIT 5,500 1,788 2,594 4,004 4,9 Cash flow from operations 13,563 7,440 8,915,226 14,035 % change Y/Y (50.2%) (67.5%) 45.1% 54.3% 22.7% EBIT Margin 5.6% 1.8% 2.6% 3.8% 4.4% Capex (17,610) (20,975) (,431) (20,000) (20,000) Net Interest (744) (884) (1,5) (1,324) (1,571) Disposal/(purchase) 2,288 1,702 0 0 0 Earnings before tax 6,473 1,545 1,748 3,337 4,423 Net Interest (744) (884) (1,5) (1,324) (1,571) % change Y/Y (58.8%) (76.1%) 13.2% 90.9% 32.5% Other 2,261 (90) 0 0 0 Tax (803) (417) (210) (400) (531) Free cash flow 502 (,923) (3,516) (7,774) (5,965) as % of EBT.4% 27.0%.0%.0%.0% Net income (reported) 5,501 916 1,276 2,636 3,495 Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - - % change Y/Y (60.8%) (83.3%) 39.3% 106.6% 32.5% Debt raised/(repaid) 3,706 16,2 4,000 10,000 9,000 Shares outstanding 3,934 3,934 3,934 3,934 3,934 Other (8,620) 524 0 0 0 EPS (reported) 1.40 0.23 0.32 0.67 0.89 Dividends paid (189) (227) (438) (905) (1,199) % change Y/Y (60.8%) (83.3%) 39.3% 106.6% 32.5% Beginning cash 24,198 19,597 24,182 24,228 25,549 Ending cash 19,597 24,182 24,228 25,549 27,384 DPS 0.52 0.08 0. 0.23 0.30 Balance sheet Ratio Analysis HK$ in millions, year end Dec FY FY FY13E FY14E FY15E HK$ in millions, year end Dec FY FY FY13E FY14E FY15E Cash and cash equivalents 19,597 24,182 24,228 25,549 27,384 EBITDA margin.9% 8.7% 10.8%.5% 13.8% Accounts receivable 10,605 10,833 10,846,445,064 Operating margin 5.6% 1.8% 2.6% 3.8% 4.4% Inventories 1,155 1,194 1,195 1,261 1,330 Net margin 5.6% 0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 3.2% Others - - - - - Current assets 31,357 36,209 36,269 38,255 40,778. Sales per share growth 9.9% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5% 5.4% LT investments - - - - - Sales growth 9.9% 1.0% 0.1% 5.5% 5.4% Net fixed assets 73,498 84,278 88,663 99,639 109,365 Net profit growth (60.8%) (83.3%) 39.3% 106.6% 32.5% Total Assets 137,133 155,010 159,642 173,170 186,410 EPS growth (60.8%) (83.3%) 39.3% 106.6% 32.5%. Liabilities Interest coverage (x) 15.7 9.8 9.5 9.9 9.7 Short-term loans 8,562 8,157 8,157 8,157 8,157 Payables 17,464 17,470 16,991 17,957 18,956 Net debt to equity 42.5% 61.8% 67.8% 80.3% 88.9% Others 10,981 10,268 10,279 10,809,357 Sales/assets 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total current liabilities 37,007 35,895 35,427 36,923 38,470 Assets/equity 240.9% 258.5% 273.1% 282.6% 295.2%. ROE 10.0% 1.6% 2.2% 4.5% 5.7% Long-term debt 34,773 51,389 55,389 65,389 74,389 ROCE 5.0% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 3.1% Other liabilities 9,409 10,420 10,420 10,420 10,420 Total Liabilities 81,189 97,704 101,236 1,732 3,279 Shareholder's equity 55,944 57,306 58,406 60,438 63,132 BVPS (HK$) 14.19 14.54 14.75 15.19 15.77 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 5

Other Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on, unless otherwise indicated) Korean Air (003490.KS/W29,050/Overweight), Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI/S$10.33[15 November 2013]/Overweight) Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past months, the following company(ies) as clients: Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Korean Air. Client/Investment Banking: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past months, the following company(ies) as investment banking clients: Cathay Pacific. Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Korean Air. Investment Banking (past months): J.P. Morgan received in the past months compensation from investment banking Cathay Pacific. Investment Banking (next 3 months): J.P. Morgan expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Cathay Pacific. Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past months for products or services other than investment banking from Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Korean Air. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan covered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com with your request. J.P. Morgan s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477-0406 or e-mail research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com. Cathay Pacific (0293.HK, 293 HK) Price Chart Price(HK$) 45 36 27 18 9 0 06 UW HK$17 UW HK$.7 UW HK$7OW HK$15 UW HK$13.7 UW HK$7.3 OW HK$13OW HK$18 OW HK$22 OW HK$23 UW HK$14 Apr 08 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Initiated coverage Mar 07, 2007. 09 Apr N HK$ UW HK$N HK$14.3 Date Rating Share Price (HK$) 07-Mar-07 UW 19.20 17.00 09-Jun-08 UW 16.26 13.70 14-Jul-08 UW 14.22.70 13-Nov-08 UW 8.03 7.30 -Dec-08 UW 8.44 7.00 07-Jul-09 OW 10.90 13.00 05-Aug-09 OW.18 15.00 -Mar-10 OW 15.20 18.00 04-Aug-10 OW 18.08 22.00 09-Mar- OW 18.94 23.00 10-Aug- UW 16.28 14.00 16-Jul- UW.80.00 08-Aug- N.92.00 13-Mar-13 N 14.26 14.30 Price Target (HK$) 6

Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI, SIA SP) Price Chart Price(S$) 32 24 16 8 0 06 N S$17.5 OW S$17.5 N S$18.5 N S$13.1N S$9.4 OW S$17 OW S$14 W S$16.5 N S$16.5 N S$15N S$10OW S$14 OW S$16 OW S$20OW S$19 OW S$15.5OW S$13 Apr 08 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Initiated coverage 29, 2006. 09 Apr Date Rating Share Price (S$) 29--06 OW 15.62 16.50 09-Feb-07 OW 17.42 17.50 -Feb-07 N 17.42 17.50 16-Apr-07 N 17.92 16.50 -May-07 N 18.32 18.50 09-Jun-08 N 15.40 15.00 15-Jul-08 N 14.78 13.10 -Dec-08 N.36 10.00 17-Feb-09 N 9.97 9.40 07-Jul-09 OW.68 14.00 -Nov-09 OW 14.26 16.00 02-Feb-10 OW 13.66 17.00 10-Nov-10 OW 16.18 20.00 13-May- OW 14.58 19.00 04-Nov- OW.29 15.50 02-Feb- OW.00 14.00 16-Jul- OW 10.63 13.00 Price Target (S$) Korean Air (003490.KS, 003490 KS) Price Chart Price(W) 154,189 132,162 0,135 88,108 66,081 44,054 22,027 0 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar Jun N W41,075.398 N W47,518.602 OW W45,102.398 OW W40,00 W47,518.602 N W44,297 OW W42,686.199 OW W41,880.801OW W33,826.801 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Date Rating Share Price (W) Price Target (W) 27--10 N 84580 47519 28-Jul- N 81373 44297 01-Aug- N 79829 47519 19-- N 57614 41075 03-May- OW 54288 42686 20-Jul- OW 61535 45102 01-Feb-13 OW 53991 41881 15-Aug-13 OW 36600 33827 14--13 OW 34300 40000 Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Initiated coverage 27, 2010. The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst s (or the analyst s team s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com. 7

Coverage Universe: Png, Corrine: Air China H (0753.HK), AirAsia BHD (AIRA.KL), Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), Cebu Air, Inc. (CEB.PS), China Airlines (2610.TW), China Cosco Holdings, Ltd. - H (1919.HK), China Eastern Airlines - H (0670.HK), China Shipping Container Lines - H (2866.HK), China Southern Airlines - H (1055.HK), EVA Airways (2618.TW), Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (7930.KS), Korean Air (003490.KS), Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) (NEPS.SI), Orient Overseas Int'l Ltd (0316.HK), Pacific Basin Shipping (2343.HK), Precious Shipping (PSL.BK), SIA Engineering Company (SIAE.SI), ST Engineering (STEG.SI), Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI), Tigerair (TAHL.SI) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2013 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 43% 44% % IB clients* 57% 49% 39% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 42% 50% 8% IB clients* 76% 65% 57% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Equity Valuation and Risks: For valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets for covered companies, please see the most recent company-specific research report at http://www.jpmorganmarkets.com, contact the primary analyst or your J.P. Morgan representative, or email research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com. Equity Analysts' Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Registration of non-us Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-us analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-us affiliates of JPMS, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMS, and may not be subject to FINRA Rule 27 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan ("JPM") is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS") and its affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a marketing name for the U.K. investment banking businesses and EMEA cash equities and equity research businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries. All research reports made available to clients are simultaneously available on our client website, J.P. Morgan Markets. Not all research content is redistributed, e-mailed or made available to third-party aggregators. For all research reports available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative. Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation's Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCC's website at http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf Legal Entities Disclosures U.S.: JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA, SIPC and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC. U.K.: JPMorgan Chase N.A., London Branch, is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and to limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from J.P. Morgan on request. J.P. Morgan Securities plc (JPMS plc) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. 27006. Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Board. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (JPMAL) (ABN 52 002 888 0/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (JPMSAL) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated by ASIC and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz East, Mumbai - 400098, is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (SEBI Registration Number - INB 230675231/INF 230675231/INE 230675231) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number - INB 010675237/INF 010675237) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a Trading Participant of the Philippine Stock Exchange and a member of the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines and the Securities Investor Protection Fund. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil: Banco J.P. 8

Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MIC (P) 049/04/2013 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Japan: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. is regulated by the Financial Services Agency in Japan. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorized by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 51907, Riyadh 553, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - Building 3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. Country and Region Specific Disclosures U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by JPMS plc. Investment research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require a firm to establish, implement and maintain such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to "wholesale clients" only. This material does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the term "wholesale client" has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider/market maker for derivative warrants, callable bull bear contracts and stock options listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and Japan Investment Advisers Association. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only, not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules. Brazil: Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847 / ouvidoria.jp.morgan@jpmorgan.com. General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. JPMS distributes in the U.S. research published by non-u.s. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. "Other Disclosures" last revised September 28, 2013. 9

Copyright 2013 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P 10