Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI June, 1 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-763 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-97-36 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents EMU Energy Sector MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation June, 1 / Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI www.
2 Figure 1. EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI INDEX (euros, ratio scale) Stock Price Index 2 1 6/ 1 199 1996 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 -day moving average. Source: MSCI. 3 3 2 Figure 2. EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION EMU Energy Sector MSCI Index 6//1 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* /1 3 3 2 1 x12 x9 x6 1 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / June, 1 / Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI www.
2 Figure 3. Earnings EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 2 16 16 12 17 1 19 12 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 199 1996 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Figure. EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 3 3 Jun - - - - -3 - NERI Apr 12.2 May.12 Jun 21.29 199 1996 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19-3 - * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / June, 1 / Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI www.
3 2 Figure. Revenues & Margins EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 3 2 26 2 17 26 2 2 1 2 1 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 19 1 16 16 1 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 11 Figure 6. EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 11 9 9 7 7 6 19 6 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (6.7) 17 1 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 3 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / June, 1 / Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI www.
3 Figure 7. Valuation EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 3 2 Forward P/E (12.) 2 1 1 199 1996 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 1.3 Figure. EMU ENERGY SECTOR MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Relative P/E (.) 1.1 1. 1..9.9...7.7.6 199 1996 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 6 7 9 11 12 13 1 1 16 17 1 19.6 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / June, 1 / Global Index Briefing: EMU Energy Sector MSCI www.
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