Leveling the Playing Field Matt Hougan President Analytics & Publications ETF.com Dave Nadig Chief Investment Officer ETF.com
1 The ETF Revolution Is Just Getting Started
2 Bad Things Are Happening
3 Level The Playing Field
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Billions $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $- ETP Asset Growth 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Billions $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $- ETP Asset Growth 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Billions $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $- ETP Asset Growth 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Billions $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $- ETP Asset Growth 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Billions $6,000 ETP Asset Growth $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $- 1993 2003 2013 2023
Billions $16,000 ETP Asset Growth $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $- 1993 2003 2013 2023
WisdomTree (WETF) Stock Price $20 $15 $10 $5 $- 12/31/2010 1/24/2014
$1.7 trillion Built on a narrow base
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Total Cost Taxes Institutional Advisory Retail Trading Diversity Distribution
Total Cost ETFs cost fund companies less than mutual funds. So ETFs cost investors less. Large Cap Equity ETFs: 0.44% Average Large Cap Equity Mutual Funds: 1.37% Average
How Much Are ETF Investors Saving? Average Mutual Fund AUM ($, mm) Average ETF ER ER U.S. Equity 931,688 0.44% 1.37% International Equity 406,477 0.56% 1.57% Fixed Income 249,840 0.30% 1.06% Annual Fees As ETFs: $7.2 billion Annual Fees As Funds: $21.9 billion Source: Morningstar, ETF.com
Who s Got The Yachts Now? $14,761,886,000 Per Year (That s $40.4 million per day) Source: ETF.com as of 12/31/2013
But What About For Institutions?
Institutional Holding Periods 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% <1 month 1-6 months 7-12 months 1-2 years >2 years 2011 2012 2013 Source: Greenwich Associates. Institutional Funds and Asset Managers Lead Charge Into ETFs. Q2 2013.
New Uses At The Core Although ETFs first entered institutional portfolios mainly as tactical tools many institutions indicate they are beginning to regularly use ETFs for many additional purposes, including gaining long-term exposures and implementing investment strategies. - Greenwich Associates Source: Greenwich Associates. Institutional Funds and Asset Managers Lead Charge Into ETFs. Q2 2013.
We had not used ETFs in any meaningful fashion previously Very much to their credit, ishares priced these ETFs at 15 basis points. Dave Underwood, CIO, Arizona State Retirement System, in an interview with the Journal of Indexes
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Institutional Advisory Retail Total Cost Taxes Trading Diversity Distribution
Taxes Active MF Source: Morningstar Passive MF ETF Large Cap Blend 1.92% 0.16% 0.00% Large Cap Value 2.01% 0.08% 0.00% Large Cap Growth 1.65% 0.04% 0.00% Mid Cap Blend 4.26% 1.25% 0.00% Small Cap Blend 3.54% 1.31% 0.00% Foreign Large Blend 2.50% 0.32% 0.00% Emerging Market 6.46% 0.02% 0.01% Source: Morningstar, 2001-2011
ETF Tax Scandal: I Sell, You Pay!
Billions Avg. Mutual Fund Flows By Month 2007-2012 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 -$5,000 -$10,000 Source: Investment Company Institute
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Institutional Advisory Retail Total Cost Taxes N/A Trading Diversity Distribution
% of Total Market (incl. OTC/BB) 40% ETF Trading Activity 30% 20% 10% 0% 10/1/2012 9/30/2013 % of Shares Traded % of Value Traded
NYSE Most Actives (Friday) Ticker Volume (millions) SPY 183 EEM 117 BAC 111 GE 95 XKF 66 F 64 VXX 61 AA 59 C 55 IWM 52
Ticker Average Spread IWM (Russel 2000) 0.01% EEM (Emerging Markets) 0.02% JNK (Junk Bonds) 0.02% GLD (Gold) 0.01%
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Institutional Advisory Retail Total Cost Taxes? Trading Diversity Distribution
Diversity Pure Active Nerdy Quant Stuff Pure Beta
People who dig ETFs? $1.7 Trillion People who dig: $2 Trillion Bill Gross?
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Institutional Advisory Retail Total Cost Taxes? Trading Diversity Distribution
Institutions 55% of ETF Assets 18% of Institutions
Advisors 26,300 Advisors $920 Billion In Assets
Retail
The 10 BPS ETF Portfolio Asset Class Weight Fund Ticker ER U.S. Equity 40% Schwab U.S. Broad Equity SCHB 0.04% Developed Equity Emerging Markets Equity 30% Schwab International Equity SCHF 0.09% 5% Schwab Emerging Markets Equity SCHE 0.15% Fixed Income 15% Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond SCHZ 0.05% REITs 5% Schwab U.S. REIT SCHH 0.07% Commodities 5% U.S. Commodity Index Fund USCI 1.03% All-In Costs 0.10%
The 11 BPS ETF Portfolio Asset Class Weight Fund Ticker ER U.S. Equity 40% ishares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock ITOT 0.07% Developed Equity Emerging Markets Equity 30% ishares Core MSCI EAFE IEFA 0.14% 5% ishares Core Emerging Markets IEMG 0.18% Fixed Income 20% ishares Core Total U.S. Bond AGG 0.08% REITs 5% ishares Cohen & Steers REIT ICF 0.35% All-In Costs 0.11%
The 39 BPS ETF Portfolio Asset Class Weight Fund Ticker ER U.S. Equity 35% ishares MSCI USA Quality Factor QUAL 0.15% Developed Equity 20% db X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity DBEF 0.35% EM Equity 10% WisdomTree Emerging Market Equity Income DEM 0.63% EM Equity 5% db X-Trackers Harvest CSI China A- Shares ASHR 0.82% Fixed Income 10% PIMCO Total Return Bond BOND 0.55% Fixed Income 5% PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio BKLN 0.65% Fixed Income 5% SPDRs Barclays Short-Term High Yield SJNK 0.40% Fixed Income 5% Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX 0.20% Commodities 5% PowerShares DB Commodity DBC 0.93% All-In Costs 0.39%
Price: Zero to 0.25%
ETF Hockey Stick Checklist Institutional Advisory Retail Total Cost Taxes? Trading Diversity Distribution
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The Gold Rush Problem
Toxic Products ½ of Smart Beta is Junk 4 Worries Pay-to-Play ETF Lipstick Active Pigs
Total Return Toxic Products 20% VXX Since Inception 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 1/29/2009 1/17/2014
Crowding 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% 5/4/2011 5/4/2012 5/4/2013 ½ of Smart Beta is Junk SPLV SPY
0.00% -0.05% -0.10% -0.15% -0.20% -0.25% -0.30% -0.35% -0.40% Tracking USMV 1-Year Tracking Difference ½ of Smart Beta is Junk
Premium/Discount Flows ($, Millions) 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% Trading 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 ½ of Smart Beta is Junk VIDI Fund Flows (Millions) VIDI Premium
Zero Commission Zero Cost Pay-to-Play
ETF Lipstick Active Pigs
WisdomTree Middle East Dividend (GULF) Schwab Emerging Markets Equity (SCHE) ishares Core MSCI Emerging Markets (IEMG)
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One More Thing
Alpha Think Tank
Alpha Think Tank Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics Don Luskin, TrendMacrolytics George Friedman, Stratfor Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Economics Tom Dorsey, Dorsey Wright Associates Peter Schiff, Euro-Pacific Capital Brendan Fitzsimmons, Medley Global Advisors Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates
Asks: What is the one area of the market you find most attractive right now?
Don Luskin: Peripheral Europe. If you wanted to build a new auto factory somewhere in the world, you would either put it in Tennessee or in Spain. And that s great.
Luskin s call on Spain may raise a few eyebrows, but there is a solid ETF to play a resurgent Spanish economy: ishares MSCI Spain Capped ETF. While not exactly cheap, the fund provides broad exposure and trades reasonably well. Be conscious of a heavy weighting in Financials, however. Don s other ideas
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