PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: John Butters June 11, 2010 AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS Estimated share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 stand at $184.2B this week, slightly below last week s $184.3B. The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 27%. The Materials, Energy, and Information Technology sectors are expecting the highest growth rates for the quarter. The ratio of negative-to-positive (N/P) preannouncements for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 1.2. This ratio is below the long-term average of 2.1. The forward four-quarter (Q210 Q111) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 12.8, below the average forward four-quarter P/E ratio of the previous 52 weeks (14.5). During the week of June 11, two S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings for Q1 2010 and two S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings for Q2 2010. SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q2 2010: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Share-Weighted Earnings ($B) 185 184 183 182 181 180 179 178 177 176 175 174 173 172 171 170 18-Dec 25-Dec 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 5-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson ONE, a complete solution for research and analytics. It offers estimates, click-through fundamentals, transcripts and guidance. Thomson ONE users can run fundamental and/or technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more about Thomson ONE Investment Management and request a free trial. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.
The S&P 500 is expecting share-weighted earnings of $184.2B in Q2 2010 this week, slightly below last week s $184.3B. The index was expecting Q2 2010 share-weighted earnings of $168.6B on October 1, $174.9B on January 1, and $177.1B on April 1. Since the start of the quarter, the increase in the earnings outlook (to $184.2B from $177.1B) for the S&P 500 can be attributed to upward revisions to estimates for companies in the Financials, Information Technology, and Industrials sectors. Since April 1, the Financials (+14%), Industrials (+7%), and Information Technology (+6%) sectors have recorded the highest percentage increases in earnings, while the Utilities (-4%) sector has recorded the highest percentage decrease in earnings. Overall, share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 have increased by 4% since the start of the quarter. Since April 1, the Financials (+$3.5B), Information Technology (+$2.0B), and Industrials (+$1.2B) sectors have recorded the highest dollar-level increases in earnings, while the Health Care (-$558M) and Consumer Staples (-$472M) sectors have recorded the highest dollar-level decreases in earnings. Overall, shareweighted earnings for the S&P 500 have increased by $7.1B since the start of the quarter. Q2 2010: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 2A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings Growth Q210 Q209 Q210 Q210 Sector Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Materials 6.4 3.3 3.1 95% Energy 22.4 13.3 9.0 68% Technology 34.6 22.7 11.8 52% Consumer Discretionary 17.0 11.6 5.4 46% Financials 27.7 21.6 6.1 28% Industrials 17.1 15.0 2.2 14% Consumer Staples 21.8 20.6 1.2 6% Health Care 25.7 24.5 1.2 5% Telecom Services 5.2 5.2-0.1-1% Utilities 6.3 6.7-0.4-6% S&P 500 184.2 144.6 39.6 27% The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 27%. The S&P 500 is expecting shareweighted earnings of $184.2B in Q2 2010, compared to share-weighted earnings of $144.6B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 500 constituents) in Q2 2009. If the final growth rate for Q2 2010 is 27%, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the S&P 500 after nine straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines (Q3 2007 Q3 2009). Eight of the ten sectors in the index are anticipating an improvement in earnings relative to Q2 2009. The Materials, Energy, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter. The Materials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (95%) of any sector. It is predicted to earn $6.4B in Q2 2010, compared to earnings of $3.3B in Q2 2009. Eleven of the 13 industries in the sector see an improvement in earnings compared to the year-ago quarter. Of these 11 industries, the Steel industry and the Diverse-Chemicals industry are the largest contributors to dollar-level earnings growth. If these two industries are removed, the growth rate for the Materials sector would drop to 29%. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 2
The Energy sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (68%) of all ten sectors. It is expected to earn $22.4B in Q2 2010, relative to earnings of $13.3B in Q2 2009. Six of the seven industries in the sector are forecasting higher earnings than a year ago. The Oil & Gas Integrated industry is the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. If this industry is removed, the growth rate for the sector would fall to 32%. The Information Technology sector has the third highest growth rate (52%) of any sector. It is expecting earnings of $34.6B in Q2 2010, compared to earnings of $22.7B in Q2 2009. If the sector earns $34.6B in Q2 2010, it will mark the second highest dollar-level quarterly earnings for the sector since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1998. Thus far, the highest dollar amount reported by the Information Technology sector for a quarter is $39.1B, which was recorded in Q4 2009. Fourteen of the 15 industries in the sector are seeing an improvement in earnings relative to the year-ago quarter. The Semiconductors industry is the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. If this industry is removed, the growth rate for the sector would decrease to 28%. The Consumer Discretionary sector has the fourth highest earnings growth rate (46%) of any sector. It is projected to earn $17.0B in Q2 2010, relative to earnings of $11.6B in Q2 2009. Thirty-one of the 33 industries in the sector are anticipating earnings growth for the quarter. At the company level, Ford Motor is the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. The mean estimate for Ford Motor is $0.37 per share, compared to the year-ago actual of -$0.21 per share. If this company is removed, the growth rate for the Consumer Discretionary sector would fall to 28%. The Financials sector has the fifth highest growth rate (28%) of any sector. It is predicted to earn $27.7B in Q2 2010, relative to earnings of $21.6B in Q2 2009. Thirteen of the 20 industries in the sector are seeing earnings growth relative to the year-ago quarter. Of these 13 industries, the Investment Banks industry, the Consumer Finance industry, and the Regional Banks industry are the top three contributors to dollar-level earnings growth. If these three industries are removed, the growth rate for the sector would drop to 3%. Q2 2010: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 3A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Revenue Growth Q210 Q209 Q210 Q210 Sector Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Energy 326.4 249.0 77.4 31% Materials 84.3 69.1 15.2 22% Technology 216.3 181.8 34.5 19% Health Care 271.0 246.1 24.9 10% Consumer Discretionary 291.1 269.7 21.3 8% Utilities 78.4 73.5 4.9 7% Industrials 242.9 229.3 13.7 6% Consumer Staples 360.1 342.7 17.4 5% Telecom Services 73.6 73.4 0.2 0% Financials 269.7 287.3-17.5-6% S&P 500 2213.8 2021.9 191.9 9% The estimated revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 9%. The S&P 500 is expecting revenues of $2214B in Q2 2010 compared to revenues of $2022B in Q2 2009. The Energy sector is expecting both the highest percentage growth (31%) and the largest dollar-level growth ($77B) in revenues of any sector. If this sector is removed, the estimated revenue growth rate for the remaining nine sectors would drop to 6%. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 3
Exhibit 4A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Revenue Growth Excluding Energy Q210 Q209 Q210 Q210 Sector Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % S&P 500 2213.8 2021.9 191.9 9% Energy 326.4 249.0 77.4 31% S&P 500 Ex-Energy 1887.3 1772.8 114.5 6% Q2 2010: EARNINGS GUIDANCE Exhibit 5A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Preannouncements Q2 2010 Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Type Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%) Positive 54 42% 32 31% 45 38% In-Line 10 8% 16 16% 7 6% Negative 65 50% 55 53% 65 56% Total 129 103 117 N/P Ratio 1.2 1.7 1.4 In the S&P 500, there have been 65 negative EPS preannouncements issued by corporations for Q2 2010 compared to 54 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 65 by 54, one arrives at an N/P ratio of 1.2 for the S&P 500 Index. This 1.2 ratio is below the N/P ratio at the same point in time in Q1 2010 (1.4) and below the long-term average N/P ratio for the S&P 500 (2.1). Q2 2010 Q1 2011: FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 6A. S&P 500: Forward Four-Quarter (Q2 2010 Q1 2011) P/E Ratio Price EPS P/E Ratio CY 2010 1086.84 82.15 13.2 Forward 4 Quarter 1086.84 85.20 12.8 CY 2011 1086.84 96.52 11.3 The forward four-quarter (Q2 2010 Q1 2011) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 12.8. This P/E ratio is below the forward four-quarter P/E ratio from last week (12.9), and below the average forward four-quarter P/E ratio recorded over the previous 52 weeks (14.5). The bottoms-up (forward 12-month) target price for the S&P 500 is 1353.45, which is 24.5% above the June 10 closing price of 1086.84. Q2 2010 Q1 2011: EARNINGS GROWTH The estimated earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 through Q1 2011 are 27%, 26%, 33%, and 13%. For sector-level growth rates for Q2 2010 through Q1 2011, see pages 11-12 in this report. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 4
EARNINGS CALENDAR The peak weeks of the Q1 2010 earnings season are now finished. The next couple of weeks will see the last few companies reporting earnings for Q1 2010 and the first few companies reporting earnings for Q2 2010. During the week of June 14, two S&P 500 companies are expected to announce earnings for Q1 2010 and two S&P 500 companies are expected to announce earnings for Q2 2010. Exhibit 7A. Number of Companies Reporting Q1 2010 Earnings Reported Report Report Report Q1 2010 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining Dow 30 30 0 0 0 S&P 500 495 2 1 2 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. Exhibit 8A. Number of Companies Reporting Q1 2010 Earnings Reported Report Report Report Q2 2010 To Date This Week Next Week Remaining Dow 30 0 0 0 30 S&P 500 3 2 10 485 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 5
SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: JUNE 14 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 6
TUESDAY: JUNE 15 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 15-Jun-10 BBY BEST BUY INCORPORATED Q1-May.10 0.50 0.42 19.3 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 7
WEDNESDAY: JUNE 16 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 16-Jun-10 FDX FEDEX CORP Q4-May.10 1.32 0.64 105.8 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 8
THURSDAY: JUNE 17 Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 17-Jun-10 SJM JM SMUCKER CO 'A' Q4-Apr.10 0.80 1.02-21.9 17-Jun-10 KR KROGER CO/THE Q1-Apr.10 0.54 0.66-17.6 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 9
FRIDAY: JUNE 18 Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 10
SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. S&P 500: Q1 2010 Earnings Scorecard Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported Index Consumer Disc. 85% 8% 8% 15.9% 79 80 Consumer Staples 77% 3% 21% 3.4% 39 41 Energy 77% 3% 21% 8.6% 39 39 Financials 62% 12% 26% 48.2% 77 79 Health Care 79% 8% 13% 8.8% 52 52 Industrials 81% 7% 12% 14.1% 57 57 Materials 75% 19% 6% 12.7% 32 32 Technology 88% 5% 7% 10.9% 75 75 Telecom 56% 22% 22% -0.3% 9 9 Utilities 78% 3% 19% 7.8% 36 36 S&P 500 78% 8% 15% 14.4% 495 500 Exhibit 2C. S&P 500: Q1 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Discretionary 154.2% 114.3% 91.8% 84.1% 75.7% Consumer Staples 13.4% 9.4% 11.7% 11.1% 10.8% Energy 61.9% 44.4% 53.1% 56.1% 59.8% Financials 366.9% 206.1% 220.4% 212.0% 173.7% Health Care 12.3% 3.3% 5.6% 4.1% 4.4% Industrials 13.2% 0.4% 1.6% 2.4% 0.2% Materials 210.3% 177.9% 202.1% 178.0% 171.9% Technology 65.7% 49.1% 42.8% 33.6% 25.4% Telecom -1.2% -1.1% 2.7% 9.0% -0.1% Utilities 3.4% -3.8% -0.6% -3.9% -2.9% S&P 500 57.4% 36.6% 37.2% 51.2% 31.1% Exhibit 3C. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Discretionary 46.3% 38.9% 32.0% 28.2% 40.3% Consumer Staples 5.9% 8.1% 10.1% 9.7% 11.1% Energy 67.7% 62.9% 68.4% 64.9% 60.9% Financials 28.2% 11.7% 11.8% 31.5% 69.6% Health Care 4.9% 7.4% 8.3% 5.4% 8.8% Industrials 14.4% 6.6% 6.1% 2.1% 12.3% Materials 94.7% 107.7% 102.4% 75.8% 164.5% Technology 52.0% 43.3% 37.7% 30.6% 27.6% Telecom -1.3% -3.8% 0.7% 4.9% 6.9% Utilities -5.5% -1.2% 5.3% 2.1% 11.4% S&P 500 27.4% 22.7% 22.4% 21.9% 29.3% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 11
Exhibit 4C. S&P 500: Q3 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Disc. 21.0% 18.1% 14.8% 28.4% Consumer Staples 6.2% 7.4% 7.6% 9.8% Energy 41.5% 39.4% 40.4% 42.3% Financials 83.4% 69.4% 70.4% 38.6% Health Care 2.8% 6.6% 6.4% 10.7% Industrials 40.1% 34.7% 29.4% 31.4% Materials 47.2% 43.3% 31.3% 71.6% Technology 27.4% 21.0% 15.4% 22.6% Telecom 1.5% 1.9% 5.7% 12.3% Utilities 3.4% 5.6% 7.0% 7.2% S&P 500 26.1% 23.4% 21.6% 23.7% Exhibit 5C. S&P 500: Q4 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Disc. 9.1% 7.0% 19.2% Consumer Staples 1.7% 2.9% 4.4% Energy 34.4% 34.2% 30.8% Financials 10164% 9467.0% 1408.9% Health Care 8.9% 13.6% 16.0% Industrials 13.3% 10.8% 16.2% Materials 43.5% 39.6% 50.6% Technology 11.1% 6.0% 13.9% Telecom 24.8% 24.2% 11.3% Utilities 3.6% 9.0% 17.7% S&P 500 32.7% 31.5% 35.3% Exhibit 6C. S&P 500: Q1 2011 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Disc. 8.4% 17.9% Consumer Staples 9.3% 10.8% Energy 25.8% 38.0% Financials 17.9% 66.2% Health Care 4.0% 12.5% Industrials 20.4% 23.0% Materials 32.8% 40.2% Technology 10.7% 15.7% Telecom 13.5% 10.8% Utilities -2.9% 3.1% S&P 500 13.3% 24.8% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 12
Exhibit 7C. S&P 500: CY 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Disc. 35.5% 28.4% 11.1% 1.9% -5.3% Consumer Staples 6.4% 6.7% 2.1% -2.6% -4.0% Energy 46.1% 42.6% -56.1% -57.9% -56.9% Financials 148.8% 113.4% NA NA NA Health Care 7.0% 7.7% 0.9% 0.5% -0.3% Industrials 19.1% 12.5% -28.6% -33.9% -31.5% Materials 80.8% 75.9% -53.8% -59.8% -66.4% Technology 35.6% 27.4% -2.1% -10.3% -14.3% Telecom 5.0% 4.1% 1.6% -10.1% -4.7% Utilities 0.9% 1.9% -4.0% -4.2% -3.3% S&P 500 33.3% 27.3% -8.6% -16.9% -11.2% Exhibit 8C. S&P 500: CY 2011 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jul Consumer Disc. 16.9% 17.8% 28.6% 36.9% 43.0% Consumer Staples 10.0% 10.5% 8.3% 10.5% 11.0% Energy 24.5% 28.5% 45.2% 47.4% 45.2% Financials 32.1% 51.8% 183.6% 72.5% 81.8% Health Care 9.2% 10.3% 8.9% 8.7% 9.5% Industrials 19.7% 19.0% 12.4% 13.1% 10.1% Materials 24.9% 29.7% 75.5% 85.1% 102.1% Technology 11.6% 14.5% 24.8% 24.2% 21.7% Telecom 11.9% 10.4% 6.1% 7.2% 6.5% Utilities 4.5% 4.9% 6.9% 7.7% 8.4% S&P 500 17.3% 20.9% 30.6% 26.5% 26.7% Exhibit 9C. S&P 500: Bottoms-Up EPS Actuals and Estimates Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY 2001 12.34 11.83 10.78 10.51 45.16 2002 11.29 12.35 12.28 12.06 47.94 2003 12.57 13.41 14.42 15.11 55.44 2004 15.78 16.74 16.59 17.83 67.10 2005 17.59 19.11 18.86 20.19 76.28 2006 20.73 22.31 22.60 22.44 88.18 2007 22.71 24.40 21.31 16.14 85.12 2008 18.97 19.78 19.32 5.62 65.47 2009 12.83 16.00 16.36 16.80 60.80 2010 19.66 19.77 20.93 22.15 82.12 2011 22.39 23.68 24.95 26.31 96.59 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 13
Exhibit 10C. S&P 500: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 Consumer Disc. 161.6% 46.0% -11.2% -91.2% -86.0% Consumer Staples 7.5% 3.4% -2.4% -3.5% 5.0% Energy -23.7% -62.2% -66.2% -58.9% -21.9% Financials NA 115.8% -21.2% -62.5% -1458% Health Care -1.2% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% 10.5% Industrials -3.2% -40.5% -35.6% -36.8% -23.4% Materials 221.4% -48.5% -67.5% -76.8% -80.3% Technology 51.1% -0.7% -19.8% -24.8% -18.9% Telecom 30.0% -7.1% -14.0% -3.0% -14.4% Utilities -4.0% -0.5% -6.3% -2.6% 0.0% S&P 500 205.6% -14.7% -27.3% -35.5% -67.0% Exhibit 11C. S&P 500: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 Above 72% 79% 73% 65% 59% Match 10% 7% 8% 9% 8% Below 18% 14% 19% 25% 34% Exhibit 12C. S&P 500: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 Surprise Factor 6.9% 14.6% 13.4% 6.7% -55.4% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_22 14
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