PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: John Butters August 27, 2010 AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS Blended share-weighted earnings for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 stand at $199.8B for a second consecutive week. Of the 490 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q2 2010, 75% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 38%. The Materials, Energy, and Information Technology sectors are reporting the highest growth rates for the quarter. The forward four-quarter (Q310 Q211) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 12.7. During the week of August 30, five S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings. SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q2 2010: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Share-Weighted Earnings ($B) 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 5-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson ONE, a complete solution for research and analytics. It offers estimates, click-through fundamentals, transcripts and guidance. Thomson ONE users can run fundamental and/or technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more about Thomson ONE Investment Management and request a free trial. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.
The S&P 500 is reporting share-weighted earnings of $199.8B in Q2 2010 this week. The index was expecting Q2 2010 share-weighted earnings of $174.9B on January 1, $177.1B on April 1, and $183.1B on July 1. Since the start of the quarter, the increase in earnings (to $199.8B from $177.1B) for the S&P 500 can be attributed to upward revisions to estimates and better-than-expected earnings for companies in the Financials, Information Technology, Industrials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Q2 2010: EARNINGS SCORECARD Exhibit 2A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Index Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Health Care 82% 14% 4% 9% 51 51 Industrials 82% 5% 13% 7% 55 56 Telecom Services 78% 0% 22% 5% 9 9 Technology 77% 13% 9% 9% 75 76 Financials 76% 9% 15% 20% 78 80 Consumer Discretionary 72% 15% 13% 13% 79 81 Energy 72% 3% 26% 9% 39 39 Utilities 71% 0% 29% 7% 35 35 Materials 69% 3% 28% 5% 32 32 Consumer Staples 62% 16% 22% 2% 37 41 S&P 500 75% 10% 16% 10% 490 500 Through August 27, 490 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for Q2 2010. Of these 490 companies, 75% reported earnings above analyst expectations, 10% reported earnings in line with analyst expectations and 16% reported earnings below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 1994), 62% of companies beat estimates, 18% match and 20% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 76% of companies beat the estimates, 8% matched and 17% missed estimates. In the aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 10% above the estimates, which is above the 2% long-term (since 1994) average surprise factor but below the 12% surprise factor recorded over the past four quarters. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 2
Q2 2010: REVENUE SCORECARD Exhibit 3A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Revenue vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Index Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Technology 71% 0% 29% 2% 75 76 Industrials 67% 0% 33% 1% 55 56 Telecom Services 67% 0% 33% 0% 9 9 Financials 66% 0% 34% 1% 77 80 Consumer Discretionary 66% 0% 34% 1% 79 81 Health Care 63% 0% 37% 0% 51 51 Materials 56% 0% 44% 1% 32 32 Energy 49% 0% 51% -2% 39 39 Consumer Staples 46% 0% 54% -1% 37 41 Utilities 41% 0% 59% -4% 34 35 S&P 500 61% 0% 39% 0% 488 500 Through August 27, 488 companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported revenues for Q2 2010. Of these 488 companies, 61% reported revenues above analyst expectations, 0% reported revenues in line with analyst expectations, and 39% reported revenues below analyst expectations. Over the past four quarters, 61% of companies beat the estimates, 0% matched and 39% missed estimates. In the aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are equal to estimates. Q2 2010: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 4A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings Growth Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q210 Q209 Q210 Q210 Materials 6.5 3.3 3.2 97% Energy 25.5 13.2 12.3 93% Consumer Discretionary 19.2 11.5 7.6 66% Technology 37.6 22.7 15.0 66% Financials 30.6 22.3 8.3 37% Industrials 18.7 14.8 3.9 27% Health Care 27.5 24.2 3.3 14% Consumer Staples 21.9 20.4 1.5 7% Utilities 6.9 6.7 0.2 4% Telecom Services 5.4 5.3 0.1 2% S&P 500 199.8 144.3 55.5 38% The blended (combines actual earnings and estimated earnings) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 38%. The S&P 500 is reporting share-weighted earnings of $199.8B in Q2 2010, compared to shareweighted earnings of $144.3B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 500 constituents) in Q2 2009. If the final growth rate for Q2 2010 is 38%, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the S&P 500 after nine straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines (Q3 2007 Q3 2009). 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 3
All ten sectors in the index are showing an improvement in earnings relative to Q2 2009. The Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter. The Materials sector had the highest earnings growth rate (97%) of any sector. It reported earnings of $6.5B in Q2 2010, compared to earnings of $3.3B in Q2 2009. Ten of the 13 industries in the sector showed an improvement in earnings compared to the year-ago quarter. Of these ten industries, the Steel industry and the Diverse-Chemicals industry were the largest contributors to dollar-level earnings growth. The Energy sector had the second highest earnings growth rate (93%) of all ten sectors. It reported earnings of $25.5B in Q2 2010, relative to earnings of $13.2B in Q2 2009. Five of the seven industries in the sector showed higher earnings than a year ago. The Oil & Gas Integrated industry was the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. The Consumer Discretionary sector has the third highest (along with the Information Technology sector) earnings growth rate (66%) of any sector. It is reporting earnings of $19.2B in Q2 2010, relative to earnings of $11.5B in Q2 2009. At the company level, Ford Motor is the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. Ford Motor reported $0.68 per share for the Q2 2010, compared to the year-ago actual of -$0.21 per share. The Information Technology sector has the third highest (along with the Consumer Discretionary sector) growth rate (66%) of any sector. It is reporting earnings of $37.6B in Q2 2010, compared to earnings of $22.7B in Q2 2009. If the sector earns $37.6B in Q2 2010, it will mark the second highest dollar-level quarterly earnings for the sector since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1998. Thus far, the highest dollar amount reported by the Information Technology sector for a quarter is $39.1B, which was recorded in Q4 2009. The Semiconductors industry is the largest contributor to dollar-level earnings growth. Q2 2010: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 5A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Revenue Growth Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q210 Q209 Q210 Q210 Energy 312.8 246.8 66.1 27% Materials 84.6 69.1 15.5 22% Technology 221.6 182.3 39.3 22% Health Care 270.7 245.7 25.0 10% Consumer Discretionary 296.0 271.6 24.4 9% Industrials 243.7 228.7 14.9 7% Consumer Staples 357.2 342.7 14.4 4% Utilities 75.1 72.9 2.2 3% Telecom Services 73.3 73.4-0.1 0% Financials 264.1 286.8-22.7-8% S&P 500 2199.1 2020.0 179.1 9% The blended (combines actual revenue and estimated revenue) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2010 is 9%. The S&P 500 is reporting revenues of $2199B in Q2 2010 compared to $2020B in Q2 2009. The Energy sector reported both the highest percentage growth (27%) and the largest dollar-level growth ($66B) in revenues of any sector. If this sector is removed, the estimated revenue growth rate for the remaining nine sectors would drop to 6%. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 4
Exhibit 6A. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Revenue Growth Excluding Energy Q409 Q408 Q409 Q409 Sector Earnings $ Earnings $ Growth $B Growth % S&P 500 2199.1 2020.0 179.1 9% Energy 312.8 246.8 66.1 27% S&P 500 Ex-Energy 1886.3 1773.2 113.0 6% Q3 2010: EARNINGS GUIDANCE Exhibit 7A. S&P 500: Q3 2010 Preannouncements Q3 2010 Q3 2009 Q2 2010 Type Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%) Total (#) Total (%) Positive 31 27% 29 30% 47 42% In-Line 15 13% 9 9% 6 5% Negative 70 60% 60 61% 59 53% Total 116 98 112 N/P Ratio 2.26 2.07 1.26 In the S&P 500, there have been 70 negative EPS preannouncements issued by corporations for Q3 2010 compared to 31 positive EPS preannouncements. By dividing 70 by 31, one arrives at an N/P ratio of 2.3 for the S&P 500 Index. This 2.3 ratio is above the N/P ratio at the same point in time in Q2 2010 (0.9), and above the long-term average N/P ratio for the S&P 500 (2.1). Q3 2010 Q2 2011: FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 8A. S&P 500: Forward Four-Quarter (Q3 2010 Q2 2011) P/E Ratio Price EPS P/E Ratio CY 2010 1125.81 83.75 13.4 Forward 4 Quarter 1125.81 88.45 12.7 CY 2011 1125.81 96.15 11.7 The forward four-quarter (Q3 2010 Q2 2011) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 12.7. Q3 2010 Q2 2011: EARNINGS GROWTH The estimated earnings growth rates for the S&P 500 for Q3 2010 through Q2 2011 are 25%, 32%, 12%, and 10%. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 5
EARNINGS CALENDAR The peak weeks of the Q2 2010 earnings season are now finished. The next few weeks will see the last few companies reporting earnings for Q2 2010. During the week of August 30, five S&P 500 companies are scheduled to announce results. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 6
SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: AUGUST 30 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 1-Sep-10 SAI SAIC INC Q2-Jul.10 0.33 0.31 7.4 1-Sep-10 HNZ HJ HEINZ CO Q1-Jul.10 0.73 0.67 8.4 1-Sep-10 BFB BROWN-FORMAN CORP Q1-Jul.10 0.84 0.81 3.2 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 7
TUESDAY: AUGUST 31 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 2-Sep-10 HRB H&R BLOCK INC Q1-Jul.10-0.41-0.39 6 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 8
WEDNESDAY: SEPTEMBER 1 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr Est Yr Ago % Dif 3-Sep-10 CPB CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY Q4-Jul.10 0.3 0.3 1 Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents. 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 9
SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings Scorecard Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported Index Consumer Discretionary 72% 15% 13% 12.6% 79 81 Consumer Staples 62% 16% 22% 1.9% 37 41 Energy 72% 3% 26% 9.3% 39 39 Financials 76% 9% 15% 20.2% 78 80 Health Care 82% 14% 4% 8.6% 51 51 Industrials 82% 5% 13% 7.4% 55 56 Materials 69% 3% 28% 5.2% 32 32 Technology 77% 13% 9% 8.6% 75 76 Telecom 78% 0% 22% 4.8% 9 9 Utilities 71% 0% 29% 7.2% 35 35 S&P 500 75% 10% 16% 9.5% 490 500 Exhibit 2C. S&P 500: Q2 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 66.4% 48.0% 38.9% 32.0% 28.2% Consumer Staples 7.4% 5.6% 8.1% 10.1% 9.7% Energy 92.9% 70.5% 62.9% 68.4% 64.9% Financials 37.4% 21.0% 11.7% 11.8% 31.5% Health Care 13.5% 4.8% 7.4% 8.3% 5.4% Industrials 26.6% 15.5% 6.6% 6.1% 2.1% Materials 96.9% 93.6% 107.7% 102.4% 75.8% Technology 66.1% 56.5% 43.3% 37.7% 30.6% Telecom 1.5% -2.3% -3.8% 0.7% 4.9% Utilities 3.7% -5.4% -1.2% 5.3% 2.1% S&P 500 38.4% 27.4% 22.7% 22.4% 21.9% Exhibit 3C. S&P 500: Q3 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 19.7% 19.8% 18.1% 14.8% 28.4% Consumer Staples 3.8% 5.7% 7.4% 7.6% 9.8% Energy 38.6% 40.4% 39.4% 40.4% 42.3% Financials 75.2% 80.8% 69.4% 70.4% 38.6% Health Care 0.3% 2.5% 6.6% 6.4% 10.7% Industrials 45.0% 40.9% 34.7% 29.4% 31.4% Materials 36.4% 46.0% 43.3% 31.3% 71.6% Technology 30.3% 27.9% 21.0% 15.4% 22.6% Telecom -5.5% -1.2% 1.9% 5.7% 12.3% Utilities 3.9% 4.1% 5.6% 7.0% 7.2% S&P 500 24.9% 25.6% 23.4% 21.6% 23.7% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 10
Exhibit 4C. S&P 500: Q4 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 9.0% 8.6% 7.0% 19.2% Consumer Staples 1.2% 1.3% 2.9% 4.4% Energy 29.4% 32.7% 34.2% 30.8% Financials 4118.6% 30785% 9467.0% 1408.9% Health Care 5.7% 8.7% 13.6% 16.0% Industrials 14.9% 13.2% 10.8% 16.2% Materials 39.6% 44.4% 39.6% 50.6% Technology 12.4% 11.4% 6.0% 13.9% Telecom 20.1% 21.9% 24.2% 11.3% Utilities -1.2% 4.4% 9.0% 17.7% S&P 500 31.8% 32.6% 31.5% 35.3% Exhibit 5C. S&P 500: Q1 2011 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 9.2% 7.8% 17.9% Consumer Staples 9.6% 9.1% 10.8% Energy 14.4% 23.0% 38.0% Financials 15.3% 17.4% 66.2% Health Care 2.7% 4.4% 12.5% Industrials 22.8% 20.9% 23.0% Materials 29.8% 32.9% 40.2% Technology 12.7% 10.8% 15.7% Telecom 10.3% 13.2% 10.8% Utilities -2.5% -3.4% 3.1% S&P 500 11.9% 12.9% 24.8% Exhibit 6C. S&P 500: Q2 2011 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 9.2% 16.8% Consumer Staples 11.1% 12.3% Energy 5.6% 27.2% Financials 21.6% 44.8% Health Care 1.1% 9.8% Industrials 12.3% 19.3% Materials 31.5% 35.5% Technology 7.6% 11.2% Telecom 7.3% 9.8% Utilities -1.0% 6.5% S&P 500 10.2% 19.8% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 11
Exhibit 7C. S&P 500: CY 2010 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 39.3% 35.6% 28.4% 11.1% 1.9% Consumer Staples 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% 2.1% -2.6% Energy 51.6% 48.3% 42.6% -56.1% -57.9% Financials 145.2% 145.7% 113.4% NA NA Health Care 7.8% 7.0% 7.7% 0.9% 0.5% Industrials 23.4% 19.6% 12.5% -28.6% -33.9% Materials 76.6% 79.9% 75.9% -53.8% -59.8% Technology 40.0% 36.6% 27.4% -2.1% -10.3% Telecom 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% 1.6% -10.1% Utilities 2.6% 1.5% 1.9% -4.0% -4.2% S&P 500 35.8% 33.5% 27.3% -8.6% -16.9% Exhibit 8C. S&P 500: CY 2011 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Jul 1 Apr 4 Jan 1 Oct Consumer Discretionary 15.5% 16.5% 17.8% 28.6% 36.9% Consumer Staples 10.4% 9.9% 10.5% 8.3% 10.5% Energy 17.2% 24.5% 28.5% 45.2% 47.4% Financials 25.1% 33.2% 51.8% 183.6% 72.5% Health Care 7.6% 8.9% 10.3% 8.9% 8.7% Industrials 17.2% 19.8% 19.0% 12.4% 13.1% Materials 25.7% 25.3% 29.7% 75.5% 85.1% Technology 11.0% 11.2% 14.5% 24.8% 24.2% Telecom 11.6% 11.9% 10.4% 6.1% 7.2% Utilities 2.6% 4.2% 4.9% 6.9% 7.7% S&P 500 14.7% 17.3% 20.9% 30.6% 26.5% Exhibit 9C. S&P 500: Bottoms-Up EPS Actuals and Estimates Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CY 2002 11.29 12.35 12.28 12.06 47.94 2003 12.57 13.41 14.42 15.11 55.44 2004 15.78 16.74 16.59 17.83 67.10 2005 17.59 19.11 18.86 20.19 76.28 2006 20.73 22.31 22.60 22.44 88.18 2007 22.71 24.40 21.31 16.14 85.12 2008 18.97 19.78 19.32 5.62 65.47 2009 12.83 16.00 16.36 16.80 60.80 2010 19.708 21.445 20.76 21.974 83.754 2011 22.119 23.596 24.381 25.984 96.148 2012 108.8 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 12
Exhibit 10C. S&P 500: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 Consumer Disc. 156.8% 161.6% 46.0% -11.2% -91.2% Consumer Staples 13.6% 7.5% 3.4% -2.4% -3.5% Energy 65.5% -23.7% -62.2% -66.2% -58.9% Financials 371.1% NA 115.8% -21.2% -62.5% Health Care 12.3% -1.2% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% Industrials 13.2% -3.2% -40.5% -35.6% -36.8% Materials 210.7% 221.4% -48.5% -67.5% -76.8% Technology 67.3% 51.1% -0.7% -19.8% -24.8% Telecom -1.2% 30.0% -7.1% -14.0% -3.0% Utilities 3.7% -4.0% -0.5% -6.3% -2.6% S&P 500 58.3% 205.6% -14.7% -27.3% -35.5% Exhibit 11C. S&P 500: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 Above 78% 72% 79% 73% 65% Match 8% 10% 7% 8% 9% Below 15% 18% 14% 19% 25% Exhibit 12C. S&P 500: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 Surprise Factor 14.3% 6.9% 14.6% 13.4% 6.7% 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_82221_33 13
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