BEST S BRIEFING Our Insight, Your Advantage. September 12, 2017 One potential impact is a change in the behavior of traditional reinsurers and the use of alternative capital instruments Hurricane Irma s Potential Impact on Exposed to Florida The abundance of capacity in the Florida property catastrophe market that over the past five years despite a decline in rate-on-line driven by a benign loss environment and alternative capital providers will be tested by Hurricane Irma, which has carved out a swath of destruction from the Caribbean to Florida and caused one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history. A.M. Best believes one potential impact is a change in the behavior of traditional reinsurers and the use of alternative capital instruments such as catastrophe bonds, collateralized reinsurance programs, sidecar vehicles, and insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds. The current catastrophe bond market exists primarily to provide reinsurance for catastrophic events such as Hurricane Irma. Outstanding catastrophe bonds amounted to approximately USD 24.7 billion as of June 30, 2017, of which approximately USD 12.5 billion covers U.S.-named storm or wind peril as one of the covered perils that could impact Florida. These figures do not reflect all private catastrophe bonds and may be modified as A.M. Best receives more information. Exhibit 1 lists outstanding catastrophe bonds, including catastrophe bonds sponsored by Florida-domiciled insurance companies, reinsurers, and other national primary carriers with significant Florida-named storm and wind-related perils. National insurance writers with significant Florida property exposures and Florida-domiciled property insurers could suffer significant losses depending on the severity of the losses caused by Hurricane Irma. Outstanding catastrophe bonds sponsored by these entities could trigger after retentions and other traditional reinsurance covers have eroded. Exhibit 2 lists the outstanding catastrophe bonds of Florida-domiciled companies with named storms or wind-related perils identified as key perils. These bonds include 29 tranches in outstanding catastrophe bonds, totaling approximately USD 2.5 billion. For these catastrophe bonds to Analytical Contacts: Ashaley Attoh-Okine, Oldwick +1 (908) 439-2200 Ext. 5716 Ashaley.Attoh-Okine@ambest.com Emmanuel Modu, Oldwick +1 (908) 439-2200 Ext. 5356 Emmanuel.Modu@ambest.com SR-2017-B-946 Exhibit 1 Outstanding (P&C Related Risks)* All Cat Bonds (USD Florida-Domiciled Insurers & Florida- Only Subsidiaries ("Pups") of Major Writers (USD Reinsurers and National Primary Carriers (USD Florida-Dominated Exposures Ratio of Total Florida- Florida- Domiciled Domiciled Insures and and "Pups" All Other to Total Carriers Florida Total Florida- Domiciled and "Pups" to All Cat Bonds Ratio of Florida- Domiciled "Pups" and All Other Carriers to All Cat Bonds Year A B C D E = C + D F = C / E G = C / B H = E / B 2017** 8,589 1,199 3,710 4,908 24.4% 14.0% 57.1% 2016 5,266 621 2,635 3,256 19.1% 11.8% 61.8% 2015 5,678 678 1,550 2,228 30.4% 11.9% 39.2% 2014 4,469 0 1,680 1,680 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% 2013 670 0 447 447 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 2017-2013 24,671 2,497 10,022 12,519 19.9% 10.1% 50.7% * These figures may not reflect some private catastrophe bonds and may be modified in the future as A.M. Best receives more information. * Source: A.M. Best research Copyright 2017 A.M. Best, Inc. and/or its affiliates. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this report or document may be distributed in any electronic form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of A.M. Best. For additional details, refer to our Terms of Use available at A.M. Best website: www.ambest.com/terms.
Exhibit 2 Outstanding with Florida Exposures Sponsored by Florida-Domiciled Insurers and Florida Only Subsidiaries ("Pups") of Major Writers* 2 Issued (USD Annualized Attachment Probability Annualized Expected Loss (%) Dated Closed Issuer Sponsor Series/Class Peril Spread (Bps) Maturity Date Jun-17 Oak Leaf Re Southern Oak Series 2017-1 Class B Florida named storms $1.03 n.a. n.a. Zero Coupon Jun-18 Jun-17 Oak Leaf Re Southern Oak Series 2017-1 Class C Florida named storms $1.24 n.a. n.a. Zero Coupon Jun-18 Jun-17 Oak Leaf Re Southern Oak Series 2017-1 Class A Florida named storms $47.50 n.a. n.a. Zero Coupon Jun-18 Jun-17 Oak Leaf Re Southern Oak Series 2017-1 Class D Florida named storms $3.90 n.a. n.a. Zero Coupon Jun-18 Jun-17 Casablanca Avatar P&C Insurance Series 2017-1 Class A Florida named storms $66.95 1.13% 0.80% 375 Jun-20 Jun-17 Casablanca Avatar P&C Insurance Series 2017-1 Class B Florida named storms $26.30 4.13% 1.77% 525 Jun-20 Jun-17 Casablanca Avatar P&C Insurance Series 2017-1 Class C Florida named storms $6.75 17.26% 9.93% 1,600 Jun-20 May-17 Sanders Re Allstate subsidiaries Series 2017-2, U.S. $200.00 1.04% 0.73% 500 Jun-20 (Castle Key Insurance & Castle Key ) earthquakes, severe thunderstorms, volcanic eruptions, and meteorite impact May-17 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Series 2017-1 Class B $35.00 n.a. 7.14% 1,075 Mar-20 Casualty Ins. May-17 Everglades Re Citizens Property Series 2017-1 Class A Florida named storms $300.00 2.49% 1.95% 500 May-20 II Insurance May-17 Integrity Re American Integrity Series 2017-1 Class C Florida named storms and (first & subsequent events) $100.00 1.64% 1.39% 400 Jun-20 May-17 Integrity Re American Integrity May-17 Integrity Re American Integrity May-17 Integrity Re American Integrity Series 2017-1 Class A Florida named storms and $72.00 2.64% 0.73% 325 Jun-20 Series 2017-1 Class D Florida named storms and (first & subsequent events) $35.00 1.74% 1.67% 425 Jun-20 Series 2017-1 Class B Florida named storms and $3.00 10.41% 9.84% 1,450 Jun-20 (second & subsequent events) Series 2017-1 Class A Florida named storms and $175.00 2.31% 1.75% 425 Jun-21 Series 2017-1 Class A $125.00 5.33% 3.08% 600 Mar-20 Apr-17 First Coast Re Security First Insurance Mar-17 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Casualty Ins. Dec-16 Bonanza Re American Strategic Series 2016 - Class A and $150.00 2.22% 1.52% 375 Dec-19 Insurance Group Dec-16 Bonanza Re American Strategic Series 2016 - Class B and $50.00 4.08% 2.19% 500 Dec-19 Insurance Group Jul-16 Oak Leaf Re Southern Oak Series 2016-1 Class B Florida named storms $1.04 n.a. n.a. 300 Jul-19 May-16 First Coast Re Security First Series 2016-1 Class A Florida named storms and $75.00 1.20% 1.15% 400 Jun-19 2016 Insurance / Swiss Re Mar-16 Manatee Re Safepoint Insurance Mar-16 Manatee Re Safepoint Insurance Feb-16 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Casualty Ins. Co Feb-16 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Casualty Ins. Co May-15 Everglades Re Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corp. Apr-15 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Apr-15 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Apr-15 Citrus Re Heritage Property & Mar-15 Manatee Re Safepoint Insurance n.a. = not available. Source: A.M. Best research and Artemis Series 2016-1 Class A Series 2016-1 Class C Series 2016-1 Class D Series 2016-1 Class E Series 2015-1 Class A Class A Class B Class C Series 2015-1 Class A (Florida & Louisiana) (Florida & Louisiana) (Florida & Hawaii) (Florida & Hawaii) U.S. hurricanes affecting Florida only $75.00 1.92% 0.98% 525 Mar-19 $20.00 14.28% 10.32% 1,625 Mar-19 $150.00 4.19% 3.01% 750 Feb-19 $100.00 8.11% 5.75% 1,050 Feb-19 $300.00 1.46% 1.55% 515 May-18 $150.00 1.31% 1.41% 489 Apr-18 $97.50 4.01% 2.79% 632 Apr-18 $30.00 6.23% 5.64% 948 Apr-18 $100.00 1.36% 0.99% 500 Dec-17
Exhibit 3 Outstanding with Florida Exposures Sponsored by Reinsurers and National Writers* Issue Date Vehicle Sponsor Jun-17 Northshore Re II AXIS Capital Holdings subsidiaries Jun-17 Spectrum Capital Tokio Millennium Re (Bermuda) May-17 Riverfront Re Great American Insurance May-17 Caelus Re V ltd. Nationwide Mutual and subsidiaries May-17 Residential Reinsurance 2017 Capital (USD millions) Peril Type Trigger $350, U.S. earthquakes, Canada earthquakes Non- $430, earthquakes,, wildfires, winter storms; Canada earthquakes $190 U.S. and Canada named storms, earthquakes,, winter storms, wildfires, meteorite impact, volcanic eruptions $375, earthquakes,, winter storms,, other perils USAA $425 U.S. tropical cyclones (plus renter policy flood), earthquakes (plus fire following),, winter storms, wildfire, volcanic eruptions, meteorite impact, other perils Non- Apr-17 Kilimanjaro II Re (Series Everest Re $300 U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico, D.C. named storms and earthquakes Non- 2017-2) Apr-17 Kilimanjaro II Re (Series Everest Re $950 U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico, D.C. named storms and earthquakes Non- 2017-1) Mar-17 Buffalo Re Syndicate ICAT 4242 $165 and U.S. earthquakes Jan-17 Galilei Re XL Bermuda $525, U.S. earthquakes, Canada earthquakes, European Non- windstorms, Australian Tropical Cyclone and Australian earthquakes Dec-16 Galilei Re XL Bermuda $750 and U.S. earthquakes; Canada earthquakes; European Non- windstorms; Australian tropical cyclones and earthquakes May-16 Laetere Re United Insurance $100 and U.S. earthquakes (designated areas) Holdings Nov-16 Residential Reinsurance 2016 USAA $400 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, and other perils Jun-16 Blue Halo Re Allianz Risk Transfer $185 and U.S. earthquakes Non- May-16 Residential Reinsurance 2016 USAA $250 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, and other perils Mar-16 Espada Reinsurance Limited USAA $50 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms,, other perils Feb-16 Caelus Nationwide Mutual $300, earthquakes,, winter storms, Ins. Jan-16 Galileo Re XL Re. $300, U.S. earthquakes, Canada earthquakes, and European Non- wind storms Jan-16 Atlas IX Capital DAC SCOR Global PandC $300, U.S. earthquakes, and Canada earthquakes, Non- SE Dec-15 Queen Street XI Re DAC. Munich Re $100 U.S. hurricanes and Australia cyclones Non- Dec-15 Residential Re 2015 USAA $125 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, (Series 2015-2) Dec-15 Kilimanjaro Re Everest Re $625 North American named storms and North American earthquakes Non- May-15 Residential Re 2015 USAA $150 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, Mar-15 Queen Street X Re Munich Re $100 U.S. hurricanes and Australia cyclones Non- Feb-15 Atlas Reinsurance IX SCOR $150 U.S. hurricanes and U.S. earthquakes; European wind storms Non- Feb-15 Galileo Re Catlin $300 and U.S. earthquakes; Canada earthquakes; and European wind storms Non- Dec-14 Tradewynd AIG $500 U.S., Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico named storms; U.S. and Canada earthquakes Dec-14 Residential Re 2014 USAA $100 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, (Series 2014-2) Nov-14 Kilimanjaro Re (Series Everest Re $500 and U.S. earthquakes Non- 2014-2) May-14 Residential Re 2014 USAA $130 U.S. tropical cyclones, earthquakes,, winter storms, Apr-14 Kilimanjaro Re Everest Re $450 and U.S. earthquakes Non- Dec-13 Loma Reinsurance Argo Group $172 U.S. wind, U.S. earthquakes, U.S. Non- Dec-13 Residential Reinsurance 2013-2 USAA $150 U.S. Hurricane, U.S. earthquakes,, and winter storms in specified U.S. States and California wildfire Jul-13 Tradewynd AIG $125 U.S., Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico named storms and U.S. and Canada earthquakes Source: A.M. Best research and Artemis 3
trigger, the retention level, reinsurance protection by private reinsurers, and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF) must be exhausted up to the attachment level associated with each catastrophe bond. Exhibit 3 lists the outstanding catastrophe bonds of reinsurers and other primary carriers that may be impacted as a result of insured losses from Hurricane Irma. There are approximately 33 catastrophe bonds with U.S. wind-related perils or U.S.-named storms as part of the perils cover. The projected exposed amount associated with these catastrophe bonds is approximately USD 10.0 billion. The sponsors of these catastrophe bonds include reinsurers and national primary insurance companies. The lessons learned after Hurricane Andrew in the 1990s among them, better building codes and more effective evacuation planning and other loss prevention and mitigation techniques may lower insured and non-insured losses despite increases in Florida s population and total insured values during the past decade which amounted to approximately USD 2.2 trillion as of March 31, 2017 (see Exhibit 4) for policies with wind coverage. In A.M. Best s view, insured losses exceeding USD 75 billion would alter the pricing dynamics in the Florida property catastrophe Exhibit 4 Total Insured Value Policies with Florida Wind Coverage Insurer Category* Total Insured Value Citizens Property Insurance Corporation $111,349,610,520 "Pups" $264,159,133,727 Florida-Based $1,528,056,716,862 Others $276,874,248,832 Total $2,180,439,709,941 * Florida's residential property insurance admitted market is divided into four major parts: (i) Citizens; (ii) Florida only subsidiaries "Pups" of major national writers; (iii) Florida-based domestic companies; and (iv) nondomestic nationwide property writers, such as USAA. Notes: 1) Includes admitted insurers only. 2) State Farm Florida filed QUASR data as "trade secret" with the OIR beginning first quarter 2014. This exhibit reflects values for State Farm Florida as reported for fourth quarter 2013. 3) Surplus lines companies are not included in the market share calculation. 4) Based on total insured value for policies with wind coverage. 5) All amounts as of March 31, 2017. Source: Citizens Property Insurance Corporation reinsurance market; however, the initial indication from peril modelers is that Hurricane Irma will result in more modest insured losses than this amount. Determining actual losses on outstanding catastrophe bonds will take some time. Other major catastrophic events have led to defaults of some catastrophe bonds, as Exhibit 5 shows. Should extensive insured losses stemming from Hurricane Irma arise, the industry will be faced with questions that could alter the catastrophe bond landscape: 1. Will there be a contraction of convergence capital? 2. Will ILS fund managers continue their current active participation in the primary insurance market? 3. What will be the impact of losses on catastrophe bond spreads and the secondary market for catastrophe bonds? 4
Exhibit 5 All Defaulted * Vehicle Gator Issue Sponsor Year American Strategic Ins. Group Payment ( Affected Tranche Issuance ( % Payout of Tranche s Total Issuance (All Tranches & Equity) Claim Year Reason for Default Mar-14 2016 $20.0 $200.0 10.00% $200.0 Loss Event - U.S. named storm & severe thunderstorm MultiCat Mexico Series Swiss Re Jul-12 2016 $50.0 $100.0 50.00% $305.0 Loss Event - Hurricane 2012-1 (Class C) Patricia Successor X 2011-3 (Class V-F4) Swiss Re Nov-11 2013 $15.0 $80.0 18.75% $130.0 Loss Event - Hurricane Sandy Vega Capital 2010 Swiss Re Dec-10 2011 $15.9 $106.5 14.93% $106.5 Loss Event - 2011 Japan earthquake Vega Capital 2010 Swiss Re Dec-10 2013 $7.2 $106.5 6.76% $106.5 Loss Event - Hurricane Sandy Mariah Re Series 2010-1 American Family Ins. Nov-10 2011 $100.0 $100.0 100.00% $100.0 Loss Event - US severe thunderstorms Mariah Re Series American Family Ins. Nov-10 2011 $100.0 $100.0 100.00% $100.0 Loss Event - US severe thunderstorms Muteki Munich Re/ Zenkyoren May-08 2011 $300.0 $300.0 100.00% $300.0 Loss Event - 2011 Japan earthquake Willow Re Allstate Jun-08 2008 $10.0 $250.0 4.00% $250.0 Default of Total Return Swap Newton Re Catlin Feb-08 2008 $4.0 $150.0 2.67% $150.0 Default of Total Return Swap Ajax Re Aspen Ins. Apr-07 2008 $72.0 $100.0 72.00% $100.0 Default of Total Return Swap Carillon Re Munich Re Jun-06 2008 $31.0 $84.5 36.69% $84.5 Default of Total Return Swap Crystal Credit Ltd** (Class B & C) Swiss Re Jan-06 2011 102.0 144.0 70.83% 252.0 Loss Event - Credit Insurance Losses Avalon Re (Class C Notes) Oil Casualty Ins. Jul-05 2010 $12.7 $135.0 9.41% $405.0 Loss Event - Hurricane Katrina & Steam Pipeline Explosion Kamp Re 2005 Ltd Zurich American Ins. Jul-05 2009 $144.0 $190.0 75.79% $190.0 Loss Event - Hurricane Katrina Georgetown Re St Paul Re. Dec-96 2000 $0.5 $44.5 1.12% $68.5 Loss Event - World Trade Center attack Kelvin ** Koch Energy Trading Inc. Nov-99 2000 $5.1 $44.6 11.43% $44.6 Loss Event - Warm winter temperatures ** Transfer of weather-related exposures to the capital market. Source: A.M. Best research and Trading Risk A.M. Best WORLD HEADQUARTERS (Oldwick, NJ) +1 908 439 2200 Washington +1 202 347 3090 Mexico City +52 55 1102 2720 London +44 20 7626 6264 Dubai* +971 4375 2780 Hong Kong +852 2827 3400 Singapore +65 6589 8400 *Regulated by the DFSA as a Representative Office Important Notice: A Best s Financial Strength Rating is an independent opinion of an insurer s financial strength and ability to meet its ongoing insurance policy and contract obligations. It is based on a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative evaluation of a company s balance sheet strength, operating performance and business profile. These ratings are not a warranty of an insurer s current or future ability to meet contractual obligations. The Financial Strength Rating opinion addresses the relative ability of an insurer to meet its ongoing insurance policy and contract obligations. The rating is not assigned to specific insurance policies or contracts and does not address any other risk, including, but not limited to, an insurer s claims-payment policies or procedures; the ability of the insurer to dispute or deny claims payment on grounds of misrepresentation or fraud; or any specific liability contractually borne by the policy or contract holder. A Financial Strength Rating is not a recommendation to purchase, hold or terminate any insurance policy, contract or any other financial obligation issued by an insurer, nor does it address the suitability of any particular policy or contract for a specific purpose or purchaser. In arriving at a rating decision, A.M. Best relies on third-party audited financial data and/or other information provided to it. While this information is believed to be reliable, A.M. Best does not independently verify the accuracy or reliability of the information. For additional information, see A.M. Best s Terms of Use at www.ambest.com/terms.html. Data sourced from the BestLink system is retrieved around the time of the report creation and is subject to revision. 5