Cleveland Municipal School District Five Year Financial Forecast October 2015 1
Five Year Forecast -Contents Major Assumptions General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures Five Year Forecast Summary 2
Major Assumptions 3
Major Assumptions Revenue: Property Tax Collection Rate - The forecast assumes the total collection rate will remain at same level as 2015 or 86.3%. A 1% change in the collection rate represents $2.6 million. Cuyahoga County will complete it s triennial update in 2015. All property values will be updated for the 2016 collection year. The residential valuation is forecasted to decline 1.5%. The commercial rate is forecasted to remain the same. On 11/6/12 residents passed a 4 year 15 mill levy with collection beginning January 2013. The forecast assumes the levy will expire December 31, 2016. State Funding House Bill 64, Ohio s Biennial Budget, was signed into law by Governor Kasich on June 30, 2015. The forecast is using the most recent state budget formula for FY16 20. Enrollment The forecast assumes no change in overall enrollment. 4
Major Assumptions continued Expenditures: Staffing assumptions: FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 G F 5,190 5,190 5,190 5,190 5,190 Forecast assumes movement from differentiated compensation based on projections. Forecast assumes all union agreements as currently defined -1% increase in FY16, 0% in FY17-FY20 Forecast assumes 230 separations in FY17-20 Healthcare rates are forecasted to increase an average of 9.5% in FY16 FY20. Forecast assumes $3.6 million of strategic investments per year. Forecast assumes a loss of $2.5 million of Title IIA which shifts 27 teachers to the General Fund in FY 16-20 Forecast assumes additional dollars for new schools/school improvements. $8.5 million FY16-20. Forecast assumes $16 million of continued aggressive fiscal management to gain efficiencies per year in FY16-20. Forecast assumes charter enrollment will decrease 400 in FY16 and then no change for FY17-FY20. 5
General Fund Revenues 6
FY 2015-2016 Where the Money Comes From State, 60.9% State of Ohio Reimbursements, 3.4% Advance In, 0.4% Other, 7.0% Local Taxes, 28.2% 7
Local Taxes Property Tax Revenue 225.0 Property Taxes 200.0 Revenue (In Millions) 175.0 150.0 125.0 175.6 198.3 203.7 201.7 180.4 153.9 155.8 157.6 100.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Property Taxes 8
97.0 96.0 95.0 94.0 93.0 92.0 91.0 90.0 89.0 88.0 87.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 83.0 82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0 78.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 Cleveland Municipal School District Property Taxes Current Collection Rate 95.9 80.3 79.6 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Calendar Year 9 Current Collection Rate
101.00 99.00 97.00 95.00 93.00 91.00 89.00 87.00 85.00 83.00 81.00 79.00 77.00 75.00 Cleveland Municipal School District Property Taxes Total Collection Rate 4.8 86.3% 95.9 6.7 79.6 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Collection Rate Delinquencies Calendar Year 10 Current Collection Rate
State Aid $460 1.9 1.9 Revenue (In Millions) $450 $440 $430 $420 $410 0.8 426.2 2.0 1.9 422.6 422.7 1.9 433.2 1.9 439.9 1.9 448.9 460.3 469.6 $400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year State Aid Casino 11
Property Tax Allocation State Hold Harmless Reimbursements $35 Revenue (In Millions) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 13.9 13.9 13.9 15.2 7.0 0.1 18.3 18.0 18.3 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 12.3 12.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Property Tax Reimbursements TPP Reimbursements 12
Other Revenue Revenue (In Millions) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 2.7 10.0 22.6 4.0 3.7 1.4 5.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 7.6 10.2 12.7 14.1 12.5 14.6 13.9 12.5 12.3 12.4 4.0 2.5 0.9 11.7 19.1 4.0 4.0 2.5 0.9 2.5 1.0 11.7 11.7 12.4 12.3 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Other Other Taxes/Rebate Interest Medicaid Advance In 13
General Fund Revenue 750.0 740.0 730.0 720.0 710.0 700.0 690.0 680.0 670.0 660.0 650.0 736.9 725.2 718.2 714.5 704.2 697.3 691.2 672.8 673.0 661.8 656.3 655.2 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* Total Revenue Total Revenue - Levy Extended *Projected 14
General Fund Expenditures 15
Where the Money Goes All Other, $147,012,523 20.4% FY 2015-2016 Salaries $308,466,742, 42.8% Charter School Pass-Through, $137,930,295, 19.1% Benefits, $127,563,120, 17.7% 16
Salaries $310 Expenditures (In Millions) $300 $290 $280 $270 $260 282.1 295.3 303.4 308.5 304.3 305.3 306.2 305.3 $250 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Salaries 17
Fringe Benefits Expenditures (In Millions) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.7 3.9 7.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 8.2 9.0 4.1 3.8 3.2 4.1 3.7 101.8 93.1 64.3 69.2 75.7 83.4 56.2 55.4 41.1 42.5 44.3 45.7 45.0 45.2 45.3 45.2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year STRS/SERS Employee Insurance Benefits Medicare Workers Compensation Other 18
Purchased Services Expenditures (In Millions) $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 127.1 141.1 143.1 58.5 65.1 73.2 140.9 142.7 144.5 146.2 148.0 93.1 104.2 95.4 97.2 99.4 10.1 13.1 14.7 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 12.5 12.9 12.6 13.6 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Utilities Student Transportation (Contract) Other Purchased Services Charter School Pass-Through 19
Supplies, Textbooks, Equipment, and Other Expenditures Expenditures (In Millions) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.6 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 8.1 8.4 7.5 8.1 7.5 6.9 6.9 6.9 4.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 10.7 11.2 11.8 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year Supplies and Textbooks Equipment Other Expense Transfers/Advances 20
General Fund Expenditures 800.0 750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0 633.6 668.2 701.2 721.0 734.8 736.2 750.5 762.1 550.0 500.0 450.0 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* Total Expenditures *Projected 21
Five-Year Forecast Summary 22
October 2015 Five-Year Forecast (in millions of dollars) FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Beginning Cash Balance $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $88.5 $82.0 $20.0 ($61.0) ($149.7) Total Revenues 656.3 697.3 691.2 714.5 672.8 655.2 661.8 673.0 Total Expenses 633.6 668.1 701.2 721.0 734.8 736.2 750.5 762.1 Revenue over Expenses 22.7 29.2 (10.0) (6.5) (62.0) (81.0) (88.7) (89.1) Ending Cash Balance 69.3 98.5 88.5 82.0 20.0 (61.0) (149.7) (238.8) Encumbrances/ Reserves 12.9 17.7 15.4 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 Unencumbered Balance $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $66.0 $4.0 ($77.0) ($165.7) ($254.8) 23
October 2015 Five-Year Forecast (in millions of dollars) FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Beginning Cash Balance $46.6 $69.3 $98.5 $88.5 $82.0 $20.0 ($61.0) ($149.7) Total Revenues 656.3 697.3 691.2 714.5 672.8 655.2 661.8 673.0 Total Expenses 633.6 668.1 701.2 721.0 734.8 736.2 750.5 762.1 Revenue over Expenses 22.7 29.2 (10.0) (6.5) (62.0) (81.0) (88.7) (89.1) Ending Cash Balance 69.3 98.5 88.5 82.0 20.0 (61.0) (149.7) (238.8) Encumbrances/ Reserves 12.9 17.7 15.4 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 Unencumbered Balance $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $66.0 $4.0 ($77.0) ($165.7) ($254.8) Levy Renewal 31.4 63.0 63.4 63.9 Unencumbered Balance $56.4 $80.8 $73.1 $66.0 $35.4 $17.4 ($7.9) ($33.1) 24
Cleveland Municipal School District Questions 25