Chart Collection for Morning Briefing March 22, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Figure 1. INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS 4 3 Bull/Bear Ratio Ratio Feb 28 3.82 Mar 7 3.34 Mar 14 3. 3/14 4 3 2 2 1 1 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 8 7 Bulls Bears Bulls Bears Feb 28 63.1 16. Mar 7 7.7 17.3 Mar 14 3.4 17. 8 7 6 6 3/14 4 4 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 4 4 Correction Camp Correction Feb 28.4 Mar 7 2. Mar 14 29.1 4 4 3 3 2 1 3/14 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Source: Investors Intelligence. 2 1 Page 3 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
28 26 2 Figure 2. S&P INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1. OR LESS* (ratio scale) 3/21 28 26 2 1 1 8 6 8 6 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 * Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence. 28 26 2 Figure 3. S&P INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3. OR MORE* (ratio scale) 3/21 28 26 2 1 1 8 6 8 6 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 * Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.. Source: Standard & Poor s and Investors Intelligence. Page 4 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
27 2 22 Figure 4. S&P BULL & BEAR MARKETS & CORRECTIONS: 8-16* -6.8% (17) -16.% (7) -19.4% (17) -9.8% (28) -9.9% (6) -7.7% (62) -.8% (34) -.8% (19) -6.9% (37) -12.4% (96) -13.3% () 3/21 27 2 22 17 17 1 1 12 12 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 -day moving average. * Ratio scale. Corrections are declines of % or more (in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of % or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. 22 Figure. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 16 Endgame Panic Fed Tightening Tantrum 22 Brent Bottoms at $27.88 Brexit Japan Goes NIRP WTI Bottoms FBI flags HRC Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 16 Page / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
217 212 7 2 197 192 187 182 Figure 6. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 1 Swiss Franc Unpegged Renewed Grexit Scare Brent Drops Below $ Oil Falls, Dollar Rises Greece Sets 7/ Vote Chinese Stocks Sink Again Yuan Devalued ETF Flash Crash Third Ave Blows Up Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 217 212 7 2 197 192 187 182 Figure 7. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 14 Emerging Markets Mini Crisis Crimea Invasion Yellen Rate-Hike Scare Momentum Stocks Meltdown ISIS Invasion of Iraq Portuguese Bank Panic Malaysian Jet Crisis Global Growth and Ebola Scares Brent Drops Below $7 Sanctions Imposed on Russia 17 17 17 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14 17 Page 6 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure 8. S&P & PANIC ATTACKS 13 Fed comments on QE coming to an end Worries about slowdown in China/ Commodities plunge Fed speculation & weak retail sales 17 17 Bernanke comments about ending monetary easing policy Looming budget deadlines & debt ceilings Fed Taper Fears 1 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13 Figure 9. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES 6 3/ 1 8 Local Currency US Dollars 6 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 7 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
Figure. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX* (US$) 1 3/ 1 1999 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 * Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. 3 Figure 11. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) 3 2 LTEG* (14.8) STEG* (16.6) STRG* (9.4) 2 1 3/16 1 - - - -1 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 - -1 * STEG: 12-month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. STRG: 12-month (2-week) forward consensus expected revenue growth. LTEG: -year consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 8 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
4. 3. Figure 12. BOND MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 199, trillion dollars) Jan 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. Cumulative Flows Net Assets (3.) Net Inflows (3.1) Capital Gains (.4) 2. 1. 1. 1.... 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Source: Investment Company Institute.. 42 Figure 13. ETF BOND INDEX FUNDS (cumulative flows since 3, billion dollars) Jan 42 3 27 Cumulative Flows Net Assets (438.9) Net Inflows (442.7) Capital Gains (-3.8) 3 27 12 12-2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Investment Company Institute. -2 Page 9 / March 22, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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