Global Social Policy forum 4-5 November 2013 Helsinki, Finland Directions of Social Policy in CIS+ Countries. Population Ageing. Alexandre Sidorenko
Main Conclusion: The CIS+ countries have accumulated a unique experience of adjusting to the challenges and opportunities of individual and population ageing under the conditions of ongoing profound societal transformation. This experience awaits its research and analysis.
Public opinion in Russia still holds the image of state as a guarantor of social benefits and a care taker. Yet the today s Russian state offers to its citizens only an opportunity to participate in a competition for social goods. Prof. Irina Grigorieva, St. Petersburg State University
CONCLUSIONS 1. Demographic transition in the CIS+ countries has had the features of an accelerated ageing, caused by an increased mortality and outmigration among the younger cohorts of economically active population. 2. All CIS+ governments express concern about population ageing. Yet substantive national strategies on ageing are rare finds (Armenia, Moldova). 3. Population ageing is often considered an issue of national security rather than a priority in national development plans (e.g., National Programme of Demographic Security of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015). 4. In several CIS+ countries the continuity of social policy process has been interrupted owing to an ongoing political transformation accompanied by frequent government reshuffling. 5. Evidence informed approach to social policies on ageing is difficult to detect. 6. The social policy process has often been substituted by spontaneous measures of individual adaptation to a rapidly transforming society.
Focusing the Presentation: Social Policies Population Policies Policies on Ageing
I. Major Demographic Concerns in CIS+ Countries 1.Depopulation. Under-population 2.(Out)Migration 3.High mortality 4.Age structure
1. Depopulation. Under-population.
Annual growth rate, % 4 Annual Population Growth Rate (percentage) 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 1975 1985 1995 2011 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan -4 Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013
GOVERNMENT VIEWS AND POLICIES CONCERNING POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH (2011) TOO LOW Armenia (+0.2%): Raise Belarus (-0.5%): Raise Georgia (-0.6%): Raise Rep. Moldova (-1.1%): Raise Russian Fed. (-0.1%): Raise Ukraine (-0.6%): Raise SATISFACTORY Azerbaijan (+1.4%): Raise Kazakhstan (+1.1%): Raise Kyrgyzstan (+1.1%): Maintain Turkmenistan (+1.2%): Maintain Uzbekistan (+1.1%): Maintain TOO HIGH Tajikistan (+1.3%): Lower Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013
2. (Out)Migration
Net Migration Rate (per 1000) in CIS countries, 2011 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan -12 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Policies 2011.
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Government Views and Policies on Emigration (2011) Too High* Armenia (-4.9): Lower Belarus ( -1): Lower Georgia (-6.8); Lower Rep. Moldova (-9.4): Lower Russian Fed. (+1.6): No Intervention Turkmenistan (-2.2): Lower Ukraine (-0.2) Lower Satisfactory* Azerbaijan (+1.2); Maintain Kazakhstan (+0.1): Maintain Kyrgyzstan (-5) Maintain Tajikistan (-8.9): Raise Uzbekistan (-3.9): Raise Too Low *In brackets Net Migration Rate Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Policies 2011.
3. High Mortality
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Total Life Expectancy at Birth (years), 1970-2010 85 80 75 70 65 EU 15 EU 12 CIS 60 55 Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July 2013. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Total Life Expectancy, 1970-2011 85 At Birth At 45 At 65 40 25 80 75 70 65 60 55 35 30 25 20 20 15 10 Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Fed. Ukraine EU 15 Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July 2013. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/
Survival Rate (%) at Age 60, 2010-2015 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Total Female Male Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Switzerland Source: World Population Ageing 2011, United Nations, New York, 2011
Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy (years), 2007 75 70 65 60 55 50 Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July 2013. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/
GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (2011) Acceptable Armenia (M/F: 70/77) Uzbekistan (M/F: 65/71) Unacceptable Azerbaijan (M/F: 68/72) Belarus (M/F: 63/75) Georgia (M/F: 68/75) Kazakhstan (M/F: 59/71) Kyrgyzstan (M/F: 64/72) Rep. Moldova (M/F: 65/72) Russian Fed. (M/F: 60/73) Tajikistan (M/F: 64/69) Turkmenistan (M/F: 61/69) Ukraine (M/F: 63/74) Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013
4. Age Structure
Age structure of population in CIS+ and Western European Countries, 2010 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % 65+ 15-64 0-14 Note: W. (Western) Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein*, Luxemburg, Monaco*, Netherlands, Switzerland* (* - non-eu member) Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
Ranking CIS countries by median age of population Median age, years 45 40 35 30 25 20 Japan Germany Italy Ukraine Estonia, Lithuania Belarus Russian Fed. Georgia Rep. Moldova Ireland Armenia Kazakhstan Azerbbaijan Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan 15 Niger 0 50 100 150 200 Rank Source: World Population Ageing 2009, United Nations, New York, 2009
NORMAL POPULATION AGEING: LOW FERTILITY + LOW MORTALITY ACCELERATED POPULATION AGEING: LOW FERTILITY + HIGH MORTALITY OF WORKING AGE POPULATION + EMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE
Potential Support Ratio (14-64/65+), 1950 2025 EU 15 EU 12 South-Eastern Europe CIS+ 18 16 18 16 18 16 18 16 Tajikistan 14 14 14 BiH 14 12 12 Romania 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 6 Ireland 8 6 8 6 8 6 4 2 Italy 4 2 Slovenia 4 2 BiH 4 2 Ukraine 0 0 0 0 World Population Ageing 2009.Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, New York 2010
GOVERNMENT LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT AGEING OF THE POPULATION (2011) Major Concern Minor Concern No Concern / No View Armenia (14%) Azerbaijan (9%) Belarus (18%) Georgia (19%) Kazakhstan (10%) Kyrgyzstan (7%) Tajikistan (5%) Turkmenistan (6%) Uzbekistan (6%) Rep. Moldova (16%) Russian Fed. (18%) Ukraine (21%) In brackets proportion of 60+ in the population Source: World Рopulation Policies, 2011 Alexandre Sidorenko, 2013
GOVERNMENT LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT WORKING-AGE POPULATION AND MEASURES TO ADDRESS POPULATION AGEING (2011) Major Concern - Measures* Minor Concern - Measures* Armenia (6,3) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Belarus (5,3) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Georgia (4,8) - No (earlier pension reform) Kyrgyzstan (9,1) - pension system reform in the last 5 years Rep. Moldova (6,4) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years Russian Fed. (5,6) - No Tajikistan (17,5) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years Ukraine (4,6) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years; pension system reform in the last 5 years Uzbekistan (15,5) - No Azerbaijan (11,3) - change in statutory retirement age in the last 5 years; pension system reform in the last 5 years Kazakhstan (10,2) - No (earlier pension reform) Turkmenistan (16,4) - pension system reform in the last 5 years No Concern/ No View* *В скобках Индекс потенциальной поддержки в 2011 г.
II. Policies on Ageing: Content
POLICY PRIORITIES ON AGEING IN CIS COUNTRIES, 2007, 2012 Priority Area Number of Countries 2007 2012 Countries Number of Countries Countries Health and medical care 6 AM, BY, AZ, BY, MD, RU 5 AM, BY, MD, RU, UA Social protection/income security 5 AM, AZ, BY, MD RU, 6 AM, BY, MD, RU, TJ, UA Social services 4 AZ, BY, MD, RU 6 AM, BY, MD, RU, TJ, UA Integration and participation in 5 AM, AZ, BY, MD, 3 AM, BY, RU societal life RU Rights of older persons/anti-age 4 AZ, MD, RU, UZ 3 AM, MD, UA discrimination Social care, including long-term 2 AM, RU 4 AM, MD, TJ, UA care Labour market measures 3 MD; BY; RU 2 AM, BY, MD Intergenerational cohesion (solidarity) 2 MD, UZ 3 BY, MD, RU
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total health expenditure, purchasing power parity (US $) per capita, WHO estimates 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 ЕU15 ЕU12 CIS+ Azerbaijan Armenia Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russian Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Ukraine Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July 2013. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total health expenditure as % of gross domestic product (GDP), WHO estimates 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ЕU 15 ЕU 12 CIS Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russian Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Source: European health for all database (HFA-DB). World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe. Updated: July 2013. http://data.euro.who.int/hfadb/
Labour Force Participation at 65+ in CIS+, Europe, and Western Europe, %, 2011 60 50 40 30 20 10 Total Female Male 0 Source: World Population Ageing 2011. United Nations, New York, 2011
Labour Force Participation at 65+ in CIS+ and Western European Countries, %, 1980-2020 60 Azerbaijan 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2000 2011 2020 Source: World Population Ageing 2011. United Nations, New York, 2011 Armenia Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Rep. Moldova Russain Fed. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Ukraine Western Europe
Main Conclusion: The CIS+ countries have accumulated a unique experience of adjusting to the challenges and opportunities of individual and population ageing under the conditions of ongoing profound societal transformation. This experience awaits its research and analysis.