2016 GAFM Technical Conference Challenges in Mitigation of NYU Langone Medical Center after Hurricane Sandy Ranko S. Pudar, PE, CFM, PMP
Institutional Use of BCA Benefit-Cost Analysis used by several federal agencies (most notably USACE and FEMA) for cost-effectiveness of the mitigation projects; Slight difference in methodologies; USACE using environmental and recreational benefits; different discount rate set by different agencies; FEMA uses BCA as an approval prerequisite for its four major programs: Pre-disaster Mitigation Program (PDM-C); PA (Public Assistance) Mitigation Program (406 mitigation); PA Alternative Procedures Program (section 428 of the Stafford Act); Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP; 404 mitigation) 2
Overview of BCA Generally required for all FEMA mitigation programs Whenever FEMA regulations require a project to be cost-effective, it means that a BCA is necessary It determines whether a proposed mitigation project is eligible or not Losses avoided due to mitigation are called benefits BCR = Loss Pre Loss Post Costs
Project Cost BCA methodology classifies the following types of cost data: Equipment Labor Materials Subcontract costs Additional costs include project management and annual maintenance costs 4
Mitigation Benefits (in function of avoided losses) Direct Losses Physical Damages: buildings, contents, infrastructure, site contamination, vehicles, equipment, landscaping; Emergency Management: costs for emergency operations centers, evacuations and rescues, security, temporary protective measures, debris removal and cleanup; Indirect Losses Loss of Function: functional down time, research disruption time, loss of public services, loss of emergency services, loss of other services; Casualties: deaths, injuries, and illnesses. 5
2012 Hurricane Sandy Total death toll 285 (125 US) $62 billion in direct losses in US ($315 million extra in Caribbean) Second only to Katrina ($128 billion) In New York and New Jersey, storm surges were 14 ft above the average low tide. At the height of the storm, over 7.5 million people were without power. 8
Hurricane Sandy Storm Tide Mapper NYU Medical Center 9
NYU Langone Medical Center 10
NYU Langone Medical Center 11
Sandy Impacts on NYU Medical Campus Evacuation of 322 patients Seven hospital building flooded Over 15 million gallons of saltwater Almost $400 million in direct loses
Advisory FEMA Flood Information
Preliminary FEMA Work Maps (released June 2013)
Historic Flooding Events Disaster Year Flood levels [ft BPMD] Direct Losses Nor easter 1992 5.29 Recorded, not documented Business Interruption Not recorded Hurricane Irene 2011 5.19 N/A Documented Super Storm Sandy 2012 9.15 Documented Documented
Water Levels at the Project Site
NYULMC Proposed Mitigation Summary
NYULMC Proposed Mitigation 19
Project Costs In general, project costs include: Equipment Labor Materials Subcontract costs Additional costs include project management and annual maintenance costs For NYULMC, project costs were finalized after detailed consultation with FEMA staff on eligibility and effectiveness of the proposed mitigation measures.
Project Costs
Project Benefits As per standard BCA procedure, benefits are defined as losses avoided due to proposed mitigation measures. For NYULMC, losses were observed/projected for a total of eight flood events, including historically recorded occurrences of Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy.
Total Losse [x unit $] Concept of Project Benefits 2.2 Projected Level of Protection 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 Pre-mitigation losses Post-mitigation losses 1.2 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Event Return Period [years]
Pre-Mitigation Losses Physical Damages: buildings, contents, infrastructure, site contamination, vehicles, equipment, landscaping; Loss of Function: functional down time, research disruption time, loss of public services, loss of emergency services, loss of other services; Emergency Management: costs for emergency operations centers, evacuations and rescues, security, temporary protective measures, debris removal and cleanup. Casualties: deaths, injuries, and illnesses;
Direct Loss Estimation
Mitigation Scenarios Scenario Floodwall Infrastructure/ services relocation 1 Yes Only critical items 2 Yes No items 3 No wall All items 4 No wall Only critical items 5 Yes All items
Damage Estimation Example
Mitigation Benefits
Preliminary BCA results
Final BCA results The final FEMA aid to NYU consisted of cca $270 million in emergency services reimbursement and $1.13 billion of combined PA grant, including the above $672 million in mitigation projects; The second largest grant in FEMA history
Main points BCA required by most of the Federal programs; Overall mitigation projects show best cost-efficiency in flood risk reduction (5.0); Mitigation project cost hard to reduce significantly; Success of BCA driven by the amount of benefits; Indirect losses (benefits) very important for risk mitigation of critical facilities and services; Even the most complex technical solutions can be analyzed if BCA applied properly
Thank You! Ranko S. Pudar, PE, CFM, PMP Pudar Mitigation Consulting, Inc. www.pudarconsulting.com