Eye on the South Carolina Housing Market presented at 28 HBA of South Carolina State Convention August 1, 28 Robert Denk Assistant Staff Vice President, Forecasting & Analysis
2, US Single Family Housing Starts Thousands of Units, SAAR 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB
Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Key Factors: Local Local Local Local Economic Local Local Income, Employment, Local Local Population Local Local Local Local Housing Market Local Local House Prices, Local Local Inventories Local Local Local Local Special Local Local Subprime Exposure, Local Local Foreclosures Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local
Current Production Relative to Peak 25 Levels 1. June Permits / Peak 25 Permits.9.8.7.6.5.4 National Average =.34.3.2.1. MI FL NV CA VT HI AK AZ IL NH MO MD CT GA DC CO ID WV MA OH DE MN NM OR MT VA LA KY ME NJ KS UT IN NY WA WI TN RI IA PA OK NE TX AR AL SC NC MS WY ND SD Source: Census Bureau
Current Production Relative to Average Levels From 2-23 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1..9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1. June Permits / Average 2-3 Permits National Average =.47 MI MN FL RI IL CT NV CA NJ CO AZ GA MD OH NH ME WI IN AK MA PA KY MO VA KS VT IA UT OR DE NM NY WV WA TN NE NC DC HI TX ND ID LA AR AL OK SC MS SD MT WY Source: Census Bureau
Unemployment Rate -- June 28 (%, SA) Std. Dev. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics US: 5.5 Mean: 5.11 Std Dev: 1.24 Min: 2.8 Max: 8.5 < -2. -2. - -.5 -.5 -.5.5-1. 1. - 2. > 2.
Subprime ARM Exposure (28Q1) Std. Dev. US: 5.81 Mean: 4.91 Std Dev: 1.94 Min: 1.96 Max: 12.55 < -1.5-1.5 - -.5 -.5 -.5.5-1.5 1.5-2.5 > 2.5 Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey
Foreclosure Started - All loans (%), 28Q1 US: 1.1 Mean:.76 Std Dev:.35 Min:.23 Max: 1.93.23 -.46.47 -.72.73 -.98.99-1.33 1.34-1.93 Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey
US Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 6 Millions of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures 7 5 All Mortgages 6 4 All Mortgages except 5 Subprime ARMs 4 3 3 2 All Foreclosures 2 1 All Other Foreclosures 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Nevada Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 8 Thousands of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures 2 7 18 16 6 All Mortgages 14 5 12 4 All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs 1 3 8 All Foreclosures 2 All Other Foreclosures 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 4 2 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Florida Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures Thousands of Mortgages 4,5 Thousands of Foreclosures 1 4, 9 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, All Mortgages All Other Foreclosures All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs All Foreclosures 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 Subprime ARM Foreclosures 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
South Carolina Subprime Mortgages and Foreclosures 9 Thousands of Mortgages Thousands of Foreclosures 1 8 9 7 6 5 All Mortgages All Mortgages except Subprime ARMs 8 7 6 4 All Foreclosures 5 4 3 3 2 All Other Foreclosures 2 1 Subprime ARM Foreclosures 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
House Price Appreciation: Peak vs 2Q1 US: 69.9 Mean: 68.7 Std Dev: 39.9 Min: 14.6 Max: 182.6 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) Std. Dev. < -.5 -.5 -.5.5-1.5 > 1.5
Recent House Price Appreciation 171 19 Still Rising Peaked Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
House Price Decline: 28Q1 vs Peak Std. Dev. < -2.5 US: -.27 Mean: -4.59 Std Dev: 5.95 Min: -27.87 Max: -.1 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) -2.5 - -1.5-1.5 - -.5 -.5 -.5.5 -.8 Still Rising
6 5 4 3 2 1 South Carolina Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Myrtle Beach, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 25 2 15 1 5-5 SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Charleston, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 15 1 5-5 SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
8 Columbia, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change 8 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
6 Greenville, SC Housing Market Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Percent Change 7 5 6 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SF Permits Prices Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO
Mortgage Interest Rates 3 Year Fixed 2 Percent 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Source: Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
Demand, Supply and House Price Adjustment Supply P 1 P * Supply Demand Demand Q * Q * Q 1
House Prices and Starts Myrtle Beach Thousands of Dollars 25 2 15 1 5 Thousands of Starts 21% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
House Prices and Starts - Charleston Thousands of Dollars 25 2 15 1 5 Thousands of Starts 34% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
House Prices and Starts Columbia Thousands of Dollars 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Thousands of Starts -3% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
House Prices and Starts Greenville Thousands of Dollars 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Thousands of Starts 13% 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Actual Simulated Starts Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
Actual / Simulated Prices (28Q1) Mean:.97 Std Dev:.19 Min:.55 Max: 1.68.55 -.79.8 -.93.94-1.7 1.8-1.25 1.26-1.68 Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
Single Family Housing Starts Growth, 28 Q4 (%) WA MT ND ME OR ID MN VT NH WY SD WI MI NY MA CT RI CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL IN KY OH WV PA MD DC VA NJ DE AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA TX LA FL AK HI Postive -5 to -1 to -5-2 to -1 Less than -2
Single Family Housing Starts Forecast South Carolina 6 Thousands of Starts 5 4 3 2 1 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: National Association of Realtors, NAHB
Upside Risk to Forecast: Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Downside Risk to Forecast: Recession Protracted Credit Market Problems
Contact Info: Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis 22-266-8698 RDENK@NAHB.COM