S&P Global Ratings: Jessica Matsumori Avani Parikh Moderator: Debra Boyd Charter School Outlook 2017 January 24, 2017
Agenda 2016 Rating Action Summary 2017 Outlook Revised Criteria Q&A 2
2016 Rating Action Summary
S&P Global Ratings: Charter Schools As of Dec. 31, 2016 Public Rating Distribution CW Positive CW Negative Negative Positive Stable Outlook Distribution 100 90 80 70 Positive 4% Negative 19% 60 50 40 30 20 Stable 77% 10 *includes CreditWatch Positive and Negative 0 BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CC Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 4
Publicly Rated Charter Schools by State 279 total; 24 states and DC 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 TX CO CA UT MI MN PA AZ FL IN NY ID NJ DE NC DC IL NV MA AR GA MD MO SC WI Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 5
Charter School Rating Distribution As of December 31, 2016 100 80 60 40 2016 2015 2014 20 0 BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC CC D Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 6
History of Rating Changes As of Dec. 31, 2016 2016* 2015 2014 2013 2012 Upgrades 10 6 5 1 1 Downgrades 36 22 37 22 15 Total 46 28 42 23 16 Downgrade to upgrade ratio 3.6 3.7 7.4 22 15 Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 7
History of Outlook Revisions As of Dec. 31, 2016 2016* 2015 2014 2013 2012 Positive** 26 21 12 5 6 Negative*** 24 19 28 24 9 Total 50 40 40 29 15 **Includes negative to stable outlook revisions. ***Includes positive to stable outlook revisions. Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 8
Charter School Outlook 2017: Stable
Capital Markets Increased demand for high yield paper Rising interest rates v. capital needs 10
Student Demand Number of students attending charter schools continues to increase, but Growth in charter schools/school choice not a positive credit factor for existing schools 11
Legislative Actions Facilities funding assistance: AZ, FL, CO Increase in per pupil funding: NY, UT First law allowing charter schools: WA Increased risk: areas with slow economic growth/struggling state budgets New Secretary of Education: no expected credit impact 12
Revised Criteria
Revised Criteria Published January 3, 2017, effective immediately Intend to complete our review of all rated charter schools within the next 15 months and through April 2018, we plan to publish periodic updates detailing our rating actions, including upgrades, downgrades, and affirmations. For the rating changes, we will provide a summary reason for the change, including our view of whether the change was due to the revision in criteria, a shift in credit fundamentals, or a combination. 14
Estimated Impact on Ratings ~ 75% of ratings are not expected to be impacted ~ 2/3 of rating changes could be downgrades, generally by 1 notch Assumes unchanged credit fundamentals for a particular school between testing and implementation The criteria is NOT intended to change/shift our charter school ratings in general ~ 1/3 of rating changes could be upgrades, generally by 1 notch 15
Analytical Framework Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 16
The Initial Indicative Rating Source: S&P Global Ratings, U.S Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology and Assumptions, January 3, 2017. 17
Post-RFC Changes Stylistic and wording changes to ensure consistency with other S&P Global criteria articles Clarifications: Definition of/ info used for charter school networks Year over year changes in per pupil funding Calculation for enrollment growth Details on the use of forward-looking assessments and pro forma information 18
Process The process for both new and existing ratings is essentially the same, though we may request additional information or in a different format than we have in the past Whenever possible, additional time may be required to complete a rating assignment during this next 15 months Content of our credit reports will largely remain unchanged, though the organization of the information may vary slightly to reflect the revised criteria 19
Q&A
Additional Resources For more information, please visit: https://www.spratings.com/us-public-finance Criteria: U.S. Public Finance Charter Schools: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 3, 2017 Additional relevant criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013 21
Analytic Excellence Manager Analytical Manager Sector Leader Robin Prunty Managing Director (1) 212-438-2081 robin.prunty@spglobal.com Debra Boyd Senior Director (1) 415-371-5063 debra.boyd@spglobal.com Jessica Matsumori Senior Director (1) 415-371-5083 jessica.matsumori@spglobal.com Liz Sweeney Criteria Officer (1) 212-438-2102 Liz.sweeney@spglobal.com Analytical Team Laura Kuffler-Macdonald Senior Director (1) 212-438-2519 laura.kuffler.macdonald@spglobal.com Beatriz Peguero Director (1) 212-438-2164 Beatriz.peguero@spglobal.com Avani Parikh Director (1) 212-438-1133 avani.parikh@spglobal.com Shivani Singh Director (1) 212-438-3120 shivani.singh@spglobal.com Luke Gildner Associate Director (1) 313-721-4124 luke.gildner@spglobal.com Ying Huang Associate Director (1) 212-438-7613 Ying.huang@spglobal.com Brian Marshall Associate Director (1) 214-871-1414 Brian.marshall@spglobal.com Ashley Ramchandani Associate Director (1) 312-233-7071 ashley.ramchandani@spglobal.co Stephanie Wang Associate Director (1) 212-438-3841 stephanie.wang@spglobal.com Robert Tu Associate (1) 415-371-5087 robert.tu@spglobal.com Kaiti Wang Associate (1) 415-371-5084 kaiti.wang@spglobal.com Melissa Brown Rating Analyst (1) 312-233-7093 melissa.brown@spglobal.com James Gallardo Rating Analyst (1) 303-721-4391 james.gallardo@spglobal.com Gauri Gupta Rating Analyst (1) 312-233-7010 gauri.gupta@spglobal.com Ryan Quakenbush Rating Analyst (1) 312-233-7050 ryan.quakenbush@spglobal.com Amber Schafer Rating Analyst (1) 303-721-4238 amber.schafer@spglobal.com
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