Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI June 14, 18 Dr. Ed Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Korea MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Earnings 2 Revenues & Margins 3 Valuation 4 Revenue & Earnings Growth 5 June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 950 800 650 Figure 1. KOREA MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (ratio scale) 6/14 950 800 650 500 500 350 350 0 0 50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0-day moving average. Source: MSCI. 50 18 15 12 Figure 2. KOREA MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION x15 18 15 12 9 x 9 6 6 x5 3 3 Korea MSCI Index 06/14/18 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 06/07/18 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
Earnings 94 79 64 Figure 3. KOREA MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 17 18 19 94 79 64 49 49 34 34 19 19 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 4 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. Figure 4. KOREA MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 0 0 - May - - -30 NERI Mar -8.85 Apr -9.86 May -7.17 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 - -30 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 2 / June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
50 950 850 Figure 5. KOREA MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins 17 18 19 50 950 850 750 750 650 650 550 550 450 450 350 Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* 350 250 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 250 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, then weekly. 13 12 11 Figure 6. KOREA MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (9.8) 13 12 11 19 9 9 8 8 7 17 18 7 6 6 5 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 5 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
22 Figure 7. KOREA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Valuation 22 18 18 16 Forward P/E (8.6) 16 14 14 12 12 8 8 6 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 6 4 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. 1.2 Figure 8. KOREA MSCI RELATIVE VALUATION* 1.2 1.0 Relative P/E (0.57) 1.0.8.8.6.6.4.4.2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.2 * Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Monthly data through December 05, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
50 40 30 Figure 9. KOREA MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) Revenue & Earnings Growth LTEG* (13.4) STEG* (11.1) STRG* (5.4) 50 40 30 0 0 - - - 06 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. - Page 5 / June 14, 18 / Global Index Briefing: Korea MSCI www.
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