Introducing National Transfer Account (NTA) in Nepal Rishi Ram Sigdel Tirtha Raj Baral

Introducing National Transfer Account (NTA) in Nepal Rishi Ram Sigdel Tirtha Raj Baral

Presentation Outline Introduction Demographic context Socio-economic indicators Available data sources Possible agencies Issues and Challenges

Major Demographic Indicators Total population : 26.4 Million (NPHC 2011) Projected population : 28.04 Million (CBS 2015) Annual population growth Rate : 1.35 (NPHC 2011 ) Population density : 180 (NPHC 2011) Total fertility rate : 2.52 (NPHC 2011), 2.6 (NDHS 2011) Labour force participation rate (10 + Years): 54.20 (NPHC 2011) Total dependency ratio (2011): 75.56 (NPHC 2011)

Population of Nepal 1911-2011 Year Total Population Population Change Growth Rate (Exponential) Doubling Time 1911 5,638,749 - - 1920 5,573,788-64,961-0.13-1930 5,532,574 41,214-0.07-1941 6,283,649 7,51,075 1.16 60 1952-54 8,256,625 19,72,976 2.28 31 1961 9,412,996 11,56,371 1.64 42 1971 11,555,983 21,42,987 2.05 34 1981 15,022,839 34,66,856 2.62 26 1991 18,491,097 34,68,258 2.08 33 2001 23,151,423 46,60,326 2.25 31 2011 26,494,504 33,43,081 1.35 52 Source: Population Censuses of Nepal, CBS

Population Size by Districts 2011 Source: Population Census of Nepal, 2011

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Population Pyramid of Nepal 1981 65+ 60-64 55-59 50-54 Male 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Percent 1981 Source: Population Census of Nepal, 1981

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Population Pyramid of Nepal 1991 65+ 60-64 55-59 50-54 Male 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Percent 1991 Source: Population Census of Nepal, 1991

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Population Pyramid of Nepal 2001 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Male 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Percent 2001 Source: Population Census of Nepal, 2001

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Population Pyramid of Nepal 2011 95+ 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Male 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Source: Population Census of Nepal, 2001

Growth Rates (%) Annual Population Growth Rate of Nepal 3 2.62 2.5 2 2.27 2.05 2.08 2.25 1.5 1.64 1 1.16 1.35 0.5 0-0.5 0-0.13-0.07 1911 1920 1930 1941-42 1952-54 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Census years Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Rates per thousand population Trends of CBR and CDR 45 40 35 42 42 40 39 30 33 25 22 21.4 20 15 10 13.5 13.3 10.3 22.4 7.3 5 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 CBR CDR Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Total Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rates of Nepal Total Fertility Rate 1971-2011 7 6 5 4 6.30 6.27 5.16 3 2 1 3.25 2.52 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Life Expectancy at Birth 50.9 49.8 48.1 Total Male Female 61.6 60.4 55 61.1 54.3 53.5 68 66.6 65.4 1981 1991 2001 2011 Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Growth Rate of Elder Population (1981 2011) 4 3.5 3 3.07 % 3.5 % 3.78 % 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 60+ yrs 65+ yrs 75+ yrs Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Growth Rate of Child and Total Population 3 2.84 2.5 2.2 2.62 2.33 2 1.7 2.05 2.08 2.25 1.5 1.32 1 1.31 1.35 0.5 0.33 0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Total Population Child (0-14) Population Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Demographic Dividend 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 6.5 8.1 54.1 57 39.4 34.9 2001 2011 60+ yrs 15-59 yrs 0-14 yrs Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Dependency Ratio Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Dependency Ratio (Projected) 80.0 74.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 59.9 63.9 50.1 59.1 58.3 45.2 43.6 55.3 39.5 20.0 14.1 13.8 13.9 14.8 15.8 10.0 0.0 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Child (0-14) Old Age (15-59) Total Source: Population Projection, CBS

Demographic Window of Opportunity Trend and Decomposition by Age Group Source: Calculation Based on data from (UN DESA 2013)

Absentee Population Source: Population Censuses of Nepal, CBS

Migrants Rate, 2011 15 10 10.77 11.23 5 0-5 0.46 Emigration rate Immigration rate Gross migration rate Net migration rate -10-15 -10.32 Source: Population Census of Nepal, 2011

Inter Regional Life Time Migration Flows Source: Population Census of Nepal, 2011

Economy Size of GDP : 19396 million US $ in 2014 Per capita GDP : 703 US$ Absolute Poverty : 25 % (2010) Unmployment rate: 2.1 % (2008) Remittance received (% of GDP): 30.21 (2014) Literacy rate: 66.6 % (2011)

Population Growth Rates and GDP Source: Population Censuses of Nepal and National Accounts Estimates of Nepal, CBS

Composition of GDP Source: National Accounts Estimates of Nepal, CBS

Poverty and Inequality in Nepal Source: Nepal Living Standard Surveys, CBS

Labour Force Participation Rate-2008 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 83.4 % 66.4 % 33.9 % Ages 5-14 Ages 15 + Ages 60 + Source: Nepal Labour Force Survey, 2008, CBS

Labor Underutilization -2008 Population of age 15 + yrs(in %) Source: Nepal Labour Force Survey, 2008, CBS

Employed Population by Sector Source: Nepal Labour Force Survey, 2008, CBS

Literacy Rate of 6 + Years Population (%) Source: Population Censuses of Nepal

Possible Data Sources to Produce NTA in Nepal Population Census (every 10 Years) Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) :1996, 2003, 2011 Nepal labour Force Survey : 1998, 2008 Annual Household Survey (AHS) : Every year National Accounts Statistics : Every Year Household budget Survey (NRB) : Every 5 years Demographic Health Survey (DHS) : Every 5 Years

Potential Agencies for NTA Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) National Planning Commission Secretariat (NPCS) Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP) Ministry of Finance (MoF) Central Department of Population Studies(CDPS)- (TU) Centre for Economic Development and Administration (CEDA) Ministry of women,children and social welfare Ministry of federal affairs and local development (MoFALD) Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB)- Central Bank of Nepal Development Partners

Issues and Challenges to Produce NTA in Nepal Training and development of human resource Management of financial resource Technical assistance for research and analysis of NTA Advocacy among the policy makers Existing data sources may be inadequate Quality of data (ex. age heaping in population census data) Migrated population and data gap on migration