The global leader in hospitality consulting The Netherlands Hotel Market Sentiment Survey April 2018
SHARE OF RESPONDENTS BY LOCATION INTRODUCTION The Horwath HTL Global Hotel Market Sentiment Survey gives a quick assessment of the market outlook for the global hotel industry, by the people on the ground, running the hotels. The survey focuses on the current outlook for occupancy, average room rates and total revenue and what the operators feel is going to happen based on their experience. The survey contains on four subjects: 1. Hotel market outlook 2. Hotel performance expectation 3. Factors affecting performance 4. Market segment performance BY STAR CLASSIFICATION This report summarizes the outcome of the survey in the Netherlands. Of the almost 200 respondents, 34 percent came from Amsterdam & Schiphol, and 66 percent from The Provinces. The Netherlands Hotel Market Sentiment has increased notably compared to last year, reflecting a stronger sense of optimism among hoteliers. 2
SENTIMENT SCORE The outlook for 2018 reflects an improved optisism. RANKING SCORE KEY Much Worse -150.0 Worse -75.0 Same 0 Better 75.0 Much Better 150.0 As a way to measure and compare the results across the years, we have created an index to formulate an overall average sentiment score from the questions regarding the hotel market outlook and the hotel performance expectation. Points are assigned to each corresponding response and compounded accordingly. The index utilizes a scale of negative 150 to positive 150 in which a score of negative 150 denotes a sentiment of absolute pessimism; a zero score indicates unchanged expectations from the previous year whereas a positive 150 signifies a very optimistic outlook. The sentiment index or scores allow trends to be observed over time. The outlook for 2018 in The Netherlands has a sentiment score of 50, showing a strong increase compared to 2017. The overall sentiment has improved, reflecting a strong sense of optimism. 3
2018 HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK Question 1: What is your assessment of the hotel market outlook for 2018 versus 2017? Occupancy In response to expectations on market-wide occupancy performance, 60 percent of the hoteliers replied that occupancy in 2018 should be better than that recorded in 2017, 32 percent feel that performance will be in line with 2017 results, while only 8 percent feel that it will be worse. Average Room Rate The outlook for ARR is even better than the occupancy outlook, with 80 percent of hoteliers replying that ARR would be better, 16 percent expecting ARR to remain stable and only 4 percent expecting it to be worse in 2018. On average, the respondents are certainly less optimistic than they were a year ago. MARKET PERFORMANCE SCORE Avg Occ ARR Rev 2018 58 40 62 71 2017 7-11 3 29 2016 55 38 52 76 Total Revenue The outlook for total revenue in 2018 is therefor very positive, with almost all respondents expecting an increase. Over 89 percent of respondents expect total revenue to be better in 2018, while only 2 percent expect total revenue to decline and the remaining 9 percent expect it to remain stable. Index Score On average, the respondents are certainly far more optimistic than they were a year ago, especially with regard to revenues. The sentiment regarding the market increased from +7 to +57. 4
2018 HOTEL PERFORMANCE EXPECTATION Question 2: For your hotel, what is your expectation for growth/decline in 2018 versus 2017? Occupancy About 62 percent of hoteliers expect a growth in occupancy in 2018, with around 10 percent expecting growth to exceed 5 percent. About 21 percent expect occupancy to decline of which 3 percent expect it will decline by more than 5 percent. The outlook for total revenue growth in 2018 is very positive. HOTEL PERFORMANCE SCORE Avg Occ ARR Rev 2018 43 24 48 56 2017 18 7 19 28 2016 42 31 44 51 Average Room Rate As with the views on the market performance, hoteliers assessment of their respective property ARR performance levels is slightly more positive than the growth estimates for occupancy. Almost 80 percent expect a growth in ARR, of which over 21 percent expect that growth to be in excess of 5 percent. Meanwhile, only 8 percent expect ARR to decline in 2018, and nobody expects the decline to be in excess of 5 percent. Total Revenue Because almost all respondents expect an increase in occupancy and/or average room rates, the outlook for total revenue growth in 2018 is very positive. About 88 percent of hoteliers expect growth, of which 27 percent expect the growth to be in excess of 5 percent. Only about 4 percent of respondents expect a decrease in total revenues. Index Score Compared to the market view, the hoteliers are slightly less optimistic about the prospects of their own property. Still, the sentiment score for the hotel performance is improved considerably compared to last year. 5
FACTORS AFFECTING PERFORMANCE Question 3: How are each of the factors below expected to influence hotel market performance in 2018? Each hotelier was asked to gauge their attitude towards nine factors and their impact. F1. Local/global stock market F2. Local economic growth trends F3. Global economic growth trends F4. Local tourism trends F5. New competitive supply additions F6. Global oil prices F7. Currency exchange rates F8. Terrorist attacks F9. Brexit Most respondents expect no influence from Brexit one way or the other. DEMAND DRIVER RANKING Score Local economic growth trends 73 Global economic growth trends 74 Local tourism trends 65 Local/global stock market 27 Currency exchange rates -6 Global oil prices -7 Brexit -14 New competitive supply additions -37 Terrorist attacks -57 Over-all, only 4 of the 9 listed factors recorded a positive score. Of these, both local and global economic growth trends are the main cause for much optimism in the Netherlands, with 83 percent of respondents expecting local economic growth trends to have a positive or very positive impact and 91 percent expecting the same from the global economic growth trends. The local tourism trends also remain a very positive influence, with 79 percent expecting a positive impact. The most negative factor is the impact from terrorist attacks. The new competitive supply additions remain a negative factor, with 63 percent of respondents expecting this to negatively impact the market. While more respondents expect a negative influence from Brexit than a positive one, most (almost 51 percent) indicate they expect no influence from Brexit one way or the other. The global oil prices and the currency exchange rates are considered the least relevant among hoteliers in the Netherlands, with respectively 77 percent and 76 percent expecting these factors to have no impact at all. 6
MARKET SEGMENT PERFORMANCE Question 4: How are each of the major demand segments expected to perform in 2018 versus 2017? The last question dealt with each participant s opinion with regard to primary market demand segments, which were Corporate, Leisure FIT, Leisure Group and MICE (Meetings, Incentive, Conference, and Exhibition) and how they are expected to perform in 2018. The outlook for the leisure FIT segment has improved, with 78 percent expect an increase in performance against 63 percent last year. The outlook for the leisure FIT segment has improved. DEMAND SEGMENT RANKING COR LEISURE FIT LEISURE GROUP MICE 2018 40 61 23 34 2017 49 50 18 26 2016 30 53 9 35 The outlook for the corporate segment has decreased slightly. Still, the majority of the respondents remains very positive about the future performance of the corporate segment, with 61 percent expecting a better performance. The MICE segment looks to improve moderately in 2018, with 51 percent expecting an increase, and 42 percent expecting a stable performance. For the leisure group segment, the majority of respondents (57 percent) felt the performance would remain stable in 2018, with the remainder leaning more towards growth (37 percent) than towards decline (7 percent). 7
CONCLUSION In conclusion, results from the latest edition of the Survey show that the sentiment among hoteliers in the Netherlands reflects an increased optimism. Most hoteliers in the Netherlands have a positive outlook on many of the most important factors for the hotel industry, such as the global and local economies, as well as the local tourism trends. At the same time, hoteliers have concerns regarding the impact of terrorist attacks. Furthermore, new additions to the supply are still expected to affect the market in a negative way. Meanwhile, most respondents indicate they expect neither a positive nor a negative impact from Brexit. As a result, the hoteliers are very optimistic about the development of occupancies and average room rates in 2018. Almost 90 percent of the hoteliers expect to be able to increase the total revenues in 2018. Van Hengellaan 2 1217 AS Hilversum The Netherlands Tel. +31 (0)35 773 26 05 www.horwathhtl.nl e-mail: info@horwathhtl.nl 8
www.horwathhtl.com HTL The Netherlands Hotel Market Sentiment Survey April 2018 EUROPE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS mvanbruggen@horwathhtl.com ANDORRA LA VELLA, ANDORRA vmarti@horwathhtl.com BARCELONA, SPAIN vmarti@horwathhtl.com BUDAPEST, HUNGARY mgomola@horwathhtl.com DUBLIN, IRELAND Ireland@horwathhtl.com FRANKFURT, GERMANY frankfurt@horwathhtl.com ISTANBUL, TURKEY merdogdu@horwathhtl.com LISBON, PORTUGAL vmarti@horwathhtl.com LIMASSOL, CYPRUS cmichaelides@horwathhtl.com LONDON, UK eheiberg@horwathhtl.com MADRID, SPAIN vmarti@horwathhtl.com MOSCOW, RUSSIA mohare@horwathhtl.com OSLO, NORWAY oslo@horwathhtl.com PARIS, FRANCE pdoizelet@horwathhtl.fr ROME, ITALY zbacic@horwathhtl.com NORTH/ CENTRAL AMERICA ATLANTA, USA pbreslin@horwathhtl.com CHICAGO tmandigo@horwathhtl.com DENVER, USA jmontgomery@horwathhtl.com MONTREAL, CANADA pgaudet@horwathhtl.com NEW YORK, USA sdavis@horwathhtl.com TORONTO, CANADA pgaudet@horwathhtl.com LATIN AMERICA BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA cspinelli@horwathhtl.com BOGOTA, COLUMBIA mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com DOMINCAN REPUBLIC speralta@horwathhtl.com MEXICO CITY, MEXICO mjgutierrez@horwathhtl.com SANTIAGO, CHILI cspinelli@horwathhtl.com SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL mcarrizo@horwathhtl.com ASIA PACIFIC AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND auckland@horwathhtl.com BANGKOK, THAILAND ishweder@horwathhtl.com BEIJING, CHINA beijing@horwathhtl.com HONG KONG, SAR hongkong@horwathhtl.com JAKARTA, INDONESIA jakarta@horwathhtl.com KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA kl@horwathhtl.com MUMBAI, INDIA vthacker@horwathhtl.com SHANGHAI, CHINA shanghai@horwathhtl.com SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE singapore@horwathhtl.com SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA jsmith@horwathhtl.com.au TOKYO, JAPAN tokyo@horwathhtl.com AFRICA CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA capetown@horwathhtl.co.za DAKAR, SENEGAL bmontagnier@horwathhtl.com SALZBURG, AUSTRIA austria@horwathhtl.com WARSAW, POLAND jmitulski@horwathhtl.com ZAGREB, CROATIA scizmar@horwathhtl.com ZUG, SWITZERLAND hwerhle@horwathhtl.com 9