Graphs Chapter 12 Updated Feb 29
Figure 12.1 Profile of Normal Growth Normal Growth: 3.3% IM PORTS -.57 EXPORTS.58 INVENTORY -.1 NET EXPORTS RESIDENCES FED NONDEFENSE DEFENSE STRUCTURES DURABLES STATE/LOCAL EQUIPM ENT NONDURABLES.1.4.4.16.18.31.37.45.61 SERVICES 1.15-2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2.
Figure 12.2 Recession Profile Recession: -1.8% Growth IM PORTS.5 EXPORTS.2 INVENTORY -1.6 NET EXPORTS.7 RESIDENCES -.8 FED NONDEFENSE.1 DEFENSE STRUCTURES -.1 -.1 DURABLES -.5 STATE/LOCAL.3 EQUIPM ENT -.4 NONDURABLES. SERVICES.6-2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2.
Figure 12.3 Recession Profile: Difference from Normal Average Recession: Difference from Normal IM PORTS 1.1 EXPORTS -.4 INVENTORY -1.5 NET EXPORTS.7 RESIDENCES -.9 FED NONDEFENSE. DEFENSE STRUCTURES -.3 -.3 DURABLES -.8 STATE/ LOCAL -.1 EQUIPM ENT -.8 NONDURABLES SERVICES -.6 -.5-2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2.
Figure 12.4 GDP Growth Cumulative and Normal Cumulative Cumulative GDP Growth and Normal Estimate 24 2 16 12 8 4-4 195 196 197 198 199 2
Figure 12.5 Normal Cumulative Contributions: Three Periods Normal Investment Cumulative Contributions to GDP Growth Normal Consumer Cumulative Contributions to GDP Growth 25 7 2 Equipment and Software 6 15 5 Services 1 Residential Investment 4 3 Nondurables 5 Structures Inventories 2 1 Consumer Durables -5 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95 5-1 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95 5 Normal Government Cumulative Contributions to GDP Growth Normal International Cumulative Contributions to GDP Growth 24 35 2 16 State and Local 3 25 2 - Imports 12 8 Defense 15 1 5 Exports 4 Federal Nondefense 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95 5-5 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 95 5
Figure 12.6 GDP Deviations from Normal Cumulative 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Cumulative Abnormal GDP Growth Recessions Shaded: Peak to Trough -8 195 196 197 198 199 2
Figure 12.7 Investment Components of GDP during Seven Consumer Downturns Cumulative Abnormal Contribution to GDP Growth Averaged over Seven Consumer Downturns.8.6.4.2 Cumulative Percentage. -.2 -.4 -.6 Homes Durables Equipment Structures Inventories -.8-1. -1.2-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Quarters before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.8 Other Components of GDP during Seven Consumer Downturns Cumulative Abnormal Contribution to GDP Growth Average of Seven Recessions.8.6.4 Cumulative Percent.2. -.2 Imports Fed Nondefense State and Local Gov Defense Services Nondurables Exports -.4 -.6 -.8-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Quarters before and after Cycle Peak
Figure 12.9 Residential Investment During Ten Recessions Residential Investment Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 1.5 1. 1948.5 48 Q4 53 Q2 Percentage Points. -.5 21 1953 199 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3-1. 1973 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-1.5-2. -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.1 Consumer Durables during Ten Recessions Consumer Durables Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 1. 1948 Percentage Points.5. -.5 21 199 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-1. 1953-1.5-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.11 Equipment and Software during Ten Recessions Equipment and Software Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 1..5 21 Percentage Points. -.5-1. -1.5 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-2. 21-2.5-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.12 Business Structure during Ten Recessions Business Structures Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 1..5 Percentage Points. -.5-1. 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-1.5-2. -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.13 Inventories during Ten Recessions Inventories Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 2. 1. Percentage Points. -1. -2. 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-3. -4. -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.14 Defense Spending during Ten Recessions Defense Cumulative Abnormal Contribution Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 2 1 196 1981 Percentage Points -1-2 1969 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1-3 1953-4 -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.15 Exports During Ten Recessions Exports Cumulative Abnormal Contributions Ten Recessions and Average of Seven 1.5 1. Percentage Points.5. -.5-1. 1948 48 Q4 53 Q2 57 Q3 6 Q2 69 Q4 73 Q4 8 Q1 81 Q3 9 Q3 1 Q1 AVERAGE7-1.5 1981 21-2. -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak
Figure 12.16 The 1953 DOD Downturn Cumulative Abnormal Constributions 1953 Q2 Recession: The End of the Korean War 2 1 Percentage Points -1 Inventories Homes Durables Equipment Structures Defense Inventories -2 Defense -3-4 -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters around 1953 Q2: The Cycle Peak
Figure 12.17 Cumulative Abnormals: The 21 Internet Comeuppance Cumulative Abnormal Contributions 21 Q1 Recession 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5-2. Structures Services Equipment Homes Durables Equipment Structures Inventories Nondurables Services -2.5-4 -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Quarters Before and After Cycle Peak (21 Q1)
Figure 12.18 Equipment and Software Cumulative Contribution to GDP Growth 25 Cumulative Contribution and Three Trends Normal Equipment and Software 2 15 1 5-5 195 196 197 198 199 2 I N T E R N E T R U S H
Figure 12.19 GDP Growth, 2-28 GDP Quarterly Growth and 4 Quarter Average 8 7 6 5 4 3 NORMAL 2 1-1 -2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Figure 12.2 Investment in Residences Defense and Residences Cumulative Abnormal Contributions Recessions Shaded: Peak to Trough 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 FN FN 4 Defense 2 FP FP -2 Residences -4 195 196 197 198 199 2