Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles August 5, 2016
Contents 1 Economic integration with the U.S. 2 Growth and financial developments 3 Monetary policy and inflation 2
Mexico is increasingly integrated with the United States 1 Highly dynamic bilateral exports and imports Significant FDI and technology transfers Substantial remittances Benefits on both sides of the border Business and job creation Wider and better consumer choices Higher living standards 1/ For a discussion of the U.S. Mexico economic relationship, see Villarreal, M.A. (2015). U.S. Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, pp. 1 9 3
California and Mexico have long been important trade partners 50 California and Mexico: Merchandise trade Billions of dollars 40 Exports from Mexico to California Exports from California to Mexico 45.1 30 26.8 20 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 4
Perhaps there is no better indicator of binational economic ties than industrial integration 20 The United States and Mexico: Industrial and manufacturing production YoY % change, s.a. 10 0 0.6 1.2 10 20 1994 1995 1996 1997 U.S. industry Mexico's manufacturing 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Data until 2Q16, with Mexican manufacturing in that period based on the April May average Source: INEGI and the U.S. Federal Reserve 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * 5
Structural reforms undertaken by Mexico have opened up broad mutual opportunities 1 Hiring and firing flexibility should benefit labor productivity Wider and cheaper access to telecoms services is already resulting from the entrance of new players The unprecedented opening of the energy sector to private investment will yield lower key input prices An enhanced rule of law, better public security, and improved physical infrastructure could further leverage the positives 1/ For an online progress report of Mexico s structural reforms, see Presidencia de la República, Reformas en Acción, http://reformas.gob.mx/ 6
Since 2014, Mexico has grown at close to historically average rates, with a dip in 2Q16 6 4 Mexico: GDP %, s.a. Quarterly annualized change Annual change 2 1.4 0 2 1.2 4 Q1 2012 2013 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Preliminary estimate Source: INEGI 2014 2015 2016 Q2* 7
In the past two and a half years, an expanding services sector has been offset by slowing industrial production 6 Mexico: GDP Annual % change, s.a. Industry 4 Services 2 2.4 0 0.5 2 Q1 2012 2013 2014 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Based on April May IGAE average Source: INEGI 2015 2016 Q2* 8
Softer Mexican industry has been affected by two shocks: a contraction in oil extraction... 4 Mexico: Mining and oil production Annual % change, s.a. 0 2.2 4 3.9 8 Mining Oil production 12 Q1 2012 2013 2014 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Mining production is based on April May IGAE Source: INEGI 2015 2016 Q2* 9
and decelerating U.S. industrial production 6 The United States and Mexico: Industrial and manufacturing production YoY % change, s.a. 4 2 0 Mexico's manufacturing 0.6 U.S. industry 1.2 2 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2* s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Mexican manufacturingis based on the April May average Source: INEGI and the U.S. Federal Reserve 10
Consistent with this picture, manufacturing exports to the U.S. have fallen 20 Mexico: U.S. dollar value of manufacturing exports Annual % change, s.a. 15 10 5 0 5 10 To the U.S. To the rest of the world 2.3 6.5 15 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted. Source: Banco de México with data from the Ministry of Finance (SAT), Ministry of Economy (SE), Banco de México, INEGI. Merchandise Trade Balance. SNIEG. Information of National Interest Q2 11
Mexican exports to the U.S. respond more to manufacturing output there than to the bilateral real exchange rate The United States and Mexico: U.S. manufacturing output and bilateral RER Annual % change, s.a. 30 U.S. manufacturing output Pesos per dollar 20 16.2 10 0 0.1 10 20 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted Source: Banco de México 12
although peso competitiveness may have contributed to a higher proportion of Mexican exports in the U.S. market 35 Mexico: Nonoil exports % of U.S. nonoil imports, s.a. 30 29.8 25 20 15 25.3 Total Nonautomotive Automotive 12.4 13.6 10 10.1 10.3 5 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted Source: Own calculations with data from the United States Department of Commerce 13
Private consumption has been a driver of recent economic expansion Mexico: Private consumption Annual % change, s.a. 6 4 2 1.8 0 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2* s.a. / Seasonally adjusted */ Based on April May data Source: INEGI 14
This performance coincides with better labor market indicators 5.5 5.0 Mexico: Unemployment and labor force participation % of EAP and % of population, s.a. 1 Unemployment rate Labor force participation 65.0 62.5 4.5 59.5 60.0 4.0 3.95 57.5 3.5 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 55.0 1/ EAP = Economically active population. Measures based on 15 year old and older population s.a. / Seasonally adjusted. Source: INEGI 15
as well as an upturn in remittances and consumer lending Mexico: Remittances and consumer lending Annual % change, s.a. 20 15 Remittances Consumer lending 10 10.4 8.9 5 0 5 10 15 Q1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted Source: Banco de México 16
In contrast, investment has stumbled 15 10 Mexico: Investment and capital imports Annual % change, s.a. Gross fixed investment Capital goods imports 5 0 1.0 5 7.3 10 Q1 Q2* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 s.a. / Seasonally adjusted. */ Gross fixed investment is based on April May average Source: INEGI and Ministry of Finance (SAT), Ministry of Economy (SE), Banco de México, INEGI. Merchandise Trade Balance. SNIEG. Information of National Interest 17
Forward looking indicators of economic activity have deteriorated Mexico: Purchasing Managers Indexes 1 56 54 Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing 52 51.3 50 49.5 48 Q1 2012 2013 1/ Adjusted by company size */ Only July Source: IMEF 2014 2015 2016 Q2 Q3* 18
Along with the U.S., Mexico is expected to experience a transitory deceleration in 2016 The United States and Mexico: GDP forecasts Annual % change, average 2015 1 2016 2017 The United States 2.4 1.9 2.2 Mexico 2.5 2.3 2.6 1/ Observed Source: Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts, July 2016 19
Mexico s short term growth scenario faces risks A greater slowdown in U.S. imports and industrial production Deterioration in consumer and producer confidence A larger than expected fall in crude oil output Potentially greater financial volatility, yielding restrictions on financing possibilities To the upside, recent structural reforms could begin to yield more benefits 20
In 2016, the Mexican peso has depreciated more than other EME currencies Dollar in peso terms vs. dollar in terms of a basket of EME currencies 1 January 1, 2015 = 1, 30 day moving average 1.2 1.13 1.1 1.0 0.9 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 * 1/ Basket based on JP Morgan Index of emerging market currencies, which includes Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Hungary, South Africa, Turkey, Russia, China, India and Singapore */ To August 1. Source: Banco de México with data from Bloomberg 21
Exacerbated peso depreciation may stem from several factors The role of the Mexican peso as an international hedge mechanism 1 A weakened fiscal position Longstanding rising trend of the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements over GDP Drastic reduction of Pemex net oil export revenues Geopolitical jitters 1/ See BIS (2014). Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange and derivatives market activity in 2013, detailed tables 22
A stronger fiscal stance is necessary given increasing public debt Mexico: Public debt 1 % of GDP 50 45 45.7 46.9 41.4 40 38.6 35 32.9 34.3 34.4 34.9 36.4 30 25 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *2016 1/ Historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements. */ To June Source: SHCP (2016). Informes sobre la Situación Económica, las Finanzas Públicas y la Deuda Pública, Segundo trimestre de 2016 23
and worsening Pemex finances, which have a bearing on the current account Pemex sales revenue and budgetary expenditure First half for each year, billions of 2015 pesos 400 1 Sales revenue Budgetary expenditure 300 287.7 200 100 122.1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1/ Revenue from net foreign and domestic sales, minus taxes paid by Pemex. Excludes various sources of income, such as federal government transfers Source: Own calculations with data from SHCP 24
Holdings of peso government securities by nonresidents have fallen lately, driven by drops in those of short maturities 2.5 Mexico: NR peso denominated government securities holdings Billions of pesos 1 Total 2.0 1.5 Coupon bonds Zero coupon bonds 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 1/ Zero coupon bonds, coupon bonds, and inflation linked bonds */ To July 27 Source: Banco de México * 25
Further bouts of international financial volatility could easily occur In the wake of Brexit, deeper monetary accommodation is foreseen in most developed countries Rising leverage worldwide 1 Increasing proportions of debt with negative yields in advanced nations European banks face fragile financial conditions Concerns persist on Chinese economic health and policy interventions 1/ See BIS (2016). BIS Statistical Bulletin, June 26
Since last year, annual inflation has remained moderate, largely supported by unusually low noncore inflation 6 5 Mexico: Annual inflation % Headline Noncore 4 3 2 Target 2.72 1.86 1 0 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 */ First half Source: INEGI Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 * 27
The rising path of core inflation reflects the effect of the exchange rate on tradable goods prices Annual core inflation % 6 Core 5 Merchandise 4 3.68 3 2.99 2 1 0 Jan 15 */ First half Source: INEGI * Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 28
An accelerating rise in the producer price index also reveals an impact from peso depreciation 6 Mexico: Nonoil Producer Price Index Annual % change 5.62 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Source: INEGI 29
Medium term inflation expectations as measured by analysts surveys have remained relatively stable, albeit above the target 4.0 Mexico: Annual inflation expectations One to four years, median, % 3.5 3.36 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Source: Banco de México, Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado 30
Also, market derived expectations appear to show a recent spike 4.0 3.5 Compensation for inflation and inflation risk implicit in bonds % 3 year 10 year 30 year 3.61 3.47 3.23 3.0 2.5 2.0 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 */ To August 2 Source: Own calculations with data from PiP Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 * 31
Policy interest rate hikes have sought to avert deviations of inflation expectations and to anchor them on the target 5.0 Policy overnight interest rate % 4.5 4.25 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Source: Banco de México 32
The resulting flattening of the yield curve seems to reflect confidence that inflation will continue to be contained 7 6 Mexico: Government securities yield curve % November 30, 2015 August 5, 2016 5 4 3 1 day 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year 2 year 3 year 5 year 7 year 10 year 20 year 30 year Source: Banco de México 33
Some risks to the consolidation of convergence of inflation to the 3 percent permanent target prevail The most notable danger is more weakening of the peso with a generalized impact on prices, knocking inflation expectations off track Rises in noncore prices could accelerate, returning to historic rates, possibly producing second round price effects Aggregate demand pressures could surface 34
Conclusions Mexico and the United States have benefited from increased economic integration Mexican economic activity has recently decelerated and confronts downside risks In a context of greater risk aversion, which could become exacerbated by geopolitical events, the fiscal stance should be fortified Monetary policy should continue to employ complete flexibility in order to consolidate the convergence of inflation to the target 35
Mejoran las perspectivas económicas mundiales 36