24 November 2017 Hang Seng Index Performance Major Market Indicators % Change Hong Kong Close 1-Day 1-Mth 6-Mth 12-Mth Hang Seng Index 29,707.94-0.99 5.52 16.83 31.40 HSCEI (H-Shares) 11,737.06-1.85 2.91 12.96 21.27 Mkt T/O ($ Mn) 135,890.98-13.68 48.68 60.28 123.57 Oversea DJIA 23,526.18-0.27 1.08 12.36 23.28 NASDAQ 6,867.36 0.07 4.26 11.87 27.63 Shanghai SE Composite 3,351.92-2.29-1.07 9.39 3.40 Shenzhen Component 11,175.47-3.33-1.44 13.89 1.90 Commodities and FX Crude Oil Futures (US$) 58.38 0.62 11.26 13.67 21.73 Gold Futures (US$) 1,291.00-0.09 0.99 3.02 8.55 Baltic Dry Index 1,413.00 1.22-11.02 51.28 17.65 USD / Euro 1.1852 0.03 0.75 6.03 12.29 Yen / USD 111.3200-0.11 2.29 0.64 1.85 CNH / USD 6.5780 0.03 0.91 4.57 5.67 Source: Bloomberg Market Overview Hang Seng Index closed down 1.0% at 29,707. Market turnover decreased to $135.9 billion. Heavily weighted Tencent (700), HSBC (5) and AIA Group (1299) cut 1.7%, 1.0% and 1.0% respectively. China Mobile (941) added 0.1%. HKEx (388) and Geely Automobile (175) declined 2.4%-2.8%. ACC Technologies (2018) was the worst performing index stock, down 4.2%. Ten largest Chinese property developers dropped an average 2.3% among which China Vanke (2202) and China Evergrande (3333) lost 3.2%-3.5%. Gaming operator Galaxy Entertainment (27) shrank 1.5%. Consumption, local property and banking shares were mixed. WH Group (288) advanced 1.7%, the most in Hang Seng Index. China Mengniu Dairy (2319) and Hengan Int l (1044) decreased 0.3%-0.5%. SHK Properties (16) and Link REIT (823) grew 1.0%-1.3% whilst New World Development (17) slid 2.6%. Bank of East Asia (23) rose 1.0% but BOC Hong Kong (2388) fell 0.7%. Three largest oil companies increased 0.2%-0.4%. We believe further upside for Hang Seng Index will be limited in near term HSCEI dropped 1.9% led by airline and insurance counters. Six insurance stocks in HSCEI plunged an average 3.3% among which CPIC (2601) and New China Life (1336) tumbled 4.7%. Air China (753) lost 3.7%. Banking, securities, power, automobile and railway related stocks lacked clear direction. China Minsheng Banking (1988) was the best performing HSCEI stock, up 2.4%. ICBC (1398) and China Merchants Bank (3968) slumped 2.7% and 4.1% respectively. GF Securities (1776) rose 0.4%. CITIC Securities (6030) and Huatai Securities (6886) retreated 1.3%- 1.6%. Great Wall Motor (2333) and China Railway Construction (1186) increased 0.8%-1.0%. BYD Company (1211) and CRRC Corporation (1766) decreased 3.0%-3.8%. We believe further upside for Hang Seng Index will be limited in near term.
Market in Focus Time to revisit steel players; sustainable high margin, China Oriental Group (581) is our top pick Traded at 3.5x/4.6x FY17/18 PER and 1.3x/1.1x FY17/18 PBR, China Oriental Group (581, COG, $5.86) is undervalued in our view. We think the company is one of the best companies in the industry regardless of profitability or ability to execute. COG is one of the PRC's most efficient steel producers. Its main products include billets, strips, H-sections steel and other downstream products such as cold-rolled sheets and galvanized sheets. Production capacity increased from about 3.1mn tons at the time of listing in 2007 to 11mn tons in 1H17 in which H-sections steel and strips are primary products. COG s steel mills are mainly located in Tangshan, Hebei Province and Tianjin. COG announced quarterly operating data on November 6. Operating profit after net finance costs amounted to RMB2.3bn in 3Q17 while gross profit per tonne reached RMB800 compared with RMB440 in 1H17. Robust operating profit was attributed to higher steel products margins that reached the highest levels in recent years. We estimate net profit at RMB1.73bn in 3Q17 which is comparable to net profit of RMB1.87bn in 1H17.Looking ahead to 4th Quarter, COG will face a 20% production cut due to implementation of the winter production restriction policy from 15 Nov 2017 to 15 Mar 2018 in 2+26 cities but most of its peers will have to cut production by 50% on average. In other words, COG will be less affected because the company needs to maintain capacity utilization at 70%-80% in order to guarantee sufficient supply of heating to the residents of the Qianxi County. The winter production restriction will certainly affect steel demand from construction activities in Northern China. However, the affected region accounts for a much higher proportion of China's steel output (supply side) than China's fixed assets investment (demand side) meaning that the policy impact from a 50% steel production cut can more than offset the decline in demand in the affected region, which will further improve the supply-demand balance and support steel price and margin at high level. Therefore, we believe GOC will benefit from the production cut resulting in better gross margin in 4Q. We initiate COG with a rating. Our earnings forecast are RMB5.09bn in 2017 and RMB4.08bn in 2018, representing an increase of 605% in 2017 and decrease of 20% in 2018. EPS is expected to be RMB1.44/1.10 in 2017/2018 respectively. GOC s net asset value is expected to be RMB13.8/16.8bn in 2017/2018 respectively. We value COG with PB-ROE model and consider its fair value at FY17 PBR of 1.8x or equivalent to $8.0. This implies a potential upside of 36.5%.
Technical Ideas GCL New Energy (451, $0.69) Stock Rating: Target Price: $0.76 Company Description: GCL New Energy offers solar plant operation and maintenance. The Company also offers energy storage technology, micro-grid and intelligent integration capabilities. Commentary: Counter rose 11.3% yesterday with large market turnover and reached its 52-week high, indicating the counter s strong upward momentum ahead. Recommendation:. Target at $0.76. Cut loss at $0.62. Company Statistics Last Closing Price $0.69 Consensus 2017 P/E 14.1x Consensus Target Price $0.56 Sinotrans (598, $3.86) Stock Rating: Target Price: $4.25 Company Description: Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services. Commentary: Counter rose 6.9% yesterday with large turnover, surpassing its critical resistance at $3.85. MACD also showed positive crossing, indicating the counter s strong uptrend momentum ahead. Recommendation:. Target at $4.25. Cut loss at $3.60. Company Statistics Last Closing Price $3.86 Consensus 2017 P/E 8.8x Consensus Target Price $5.20
Recent Recommendations Date of Issue Stock Pick Recommendation Highlights Rating (TP) 9/11/2017 HKEx (388) 10/11/2017 Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347) HKEx (388) was fully valued despite strong quarterly results HOLD 3Q17 net profit increased by 32% yoy to $2,033mn. Traded at 2017 P/E of 37.3x, valuation of HKEx is fully valued Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347) reported higher-than-expected third quarter earnings - Maintain 3Q17 revenue increased by 6.0% qoq and 13.3% yoy to all-time-high of US$209.9mn. Management expects 4Q17 revenue to grow 3% qoq with a gross margin of 33%-34% HOLD ($230) ($17.5) 13/11/2017 CIMC (2039) 15/11/2017 Shimao Property (813) 16/11/2017 SMIC (981) 17/11/2017 Huaneng Power (902) 20/11/2017 Singamas (716) 21/11/2017 Galaxy Entertainment (27) 22/11/2017 Xinyi Glass (868) 23/11/2017 Wisdom Education (6068) Substantial land appreciation gains from Qianhai properties Maintain CIMC (2039) Redevelopment of Qianhai sites will generate enormous profit to CMIC Strong improvement in container manufacturing business along with a recovery in global trade. Valuation of Shimao Property (813) is unreasonably cheap Maintain Contracted sales amount and ASP surged 39% and 21% yoy respectively in 10M17 Low valuation at 2017 P/E of 6.5x and 2017 P/B of 0.8x SMIC (981) reported lower than expected quarterly earnings Downgrade to SELL Company expects revenue to grow 1%-3% qoq in 4Q17 with a gross margin of 18%-20% Expensive valuation at 2017 P/E of 44.9x and 2017 P/B of 1.48x Share price correction provides a good buying opportunity Maintain Huaneng Power (902) Earnings are expected to grow strongly from RMB2.34bn in 2017 to RMB7.00bn in 2018 Speculation on the increase of tariff early next year could be a share price catalyst Weakness in share price offers a good buying opportunity Maintain Singamas (716) Likely to benefit from a continued recovery in the container shipping industry Traded at 2017 P/B of 0.91x and EPS growth of 50% in 2018, Singamas is undervalued Galaxy Entertainment (27) achieved satisfactory third quarter results Maintain Revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased by 23% and 31% yoy respectively in 3Q17 Completion of HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge by 2017 is likely to boost Macau s gaming revenue in 2018 Upgrade to as 2017 earnings may beat market expectations The company is still undervalued and trading at 2017 PER of 7.7x, lower than the average historical PER of 9.7x from 2010 to 2017 Dollar gross margin per ton is expected to record a quarter-over-quarter increase. Promising industry outlook plus strong student enrolment growth Maintain Wisdom Education (6068) Revenue and net profit reached RMB979mn and RMB200mn, up 40% and 30% yoy Maintain positive view on China s education services industry given a fast-growing middle class and rising demand for quality education service. We expect Wisdom s 2-year EPS CAGR to reach as high as 33% ($18.0) ($20.0) SELL ($10.3) ($6.15) ($2.05) ($63.0) ($10.3) ($5.5)
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