Equity Weekly Global Equities The MSCI world index had a marginally more positive week gaining +0.6% 5d, as Ireland and Portugal returned to the bond markets, driving a rally in Eurozone periphery markets, and weaker than expected jobs data led US investors to believe that the Fed would not increase the pace of tapering in the near term. Risk measures decreased globally, led by the US, with the VIX SPX declining -11.8% 5d to 12, the VSTOXX -8.0% 5d to 17, whilst in Asia the VHSI eased -0.8% 5d to 15. Frontier markets led the gains for the MSCI sub indices, with the MSCI Frontier markets index +0.7% 5d, whilst the MSCI G7 markets index was marginally ahead, +0.4% 5d, and the MSCI Emerging markets index declined for the second consecutive week -1.0% 5d. Weekly 12 January 2014 With investors pricing in a blue sky scenario for US equity markets, payroll data and early Q4 results have shown that this maybe somewhat over optimistic, and so US markets could be expected to see greater volatility in the coming months, with economic and financial data being scrutinized by investors, as they try to judge the pace of tapering. Emerging markets could add to the gains seen at the end of last week on the back of USD weakness, but these gains may prove to be temporary. MENA Markets The S&P Pan Arab Composite index gained +1.5% 5d for the week, with a majority of regional markets ending the week in positive territory, with the main exception being Morocco and Tunisia, whose bench mark indices declined by -0.9% 5d and -0.6% 5d respectively. The QE index, +3.1% 5d, was the best performing major regional index led by the banking sector, with QIB +5.7% 5d, CBQ +3.8% 5d and Doha Bank +3.5% 5d. Qtel also rallied strongly rising +4.1% 5d. According to Bloomberg, Qatari CDS rates have declined by -14% since the beginning of December, which should allow Qatari banks to access external funds at cheaper rates, and hence boost net interest margins. Based on Bloomberg data and our MENA coverage universe, the Financial Services sector (+5.0% 5d) was the best performing sector, as EFG Hermes jumped +12.4% 5d, following its board approving an EGP 1bn share buyback program on 9 January. Under the plan EFG Hermes plans to buy back EGP 425mn of shares immediately at EGP 11.25/share, with the second phase to be implemented in Q2 or Q3 2014. All trades for 8 January in EFG Hermes were cancelled, as well as 9 trades for 9 January, (as the stock closed 10% limit up, on 2.5x the 3m daily average volume,) on concerns that the news had been leaked. EFG Hermes shares were suspended at EGP 9.79. The Petrochemicals sector was the worst relative performing sector, ending flat for the week. Our MENA equity coverage universe shows the Food & Retail sector (16.2x 2014, net income growth 2014E of 17%,) as having the most upside of +6.9% based on consensus target prices. The Construction sector (18.1x and net income growth 2014E of 9%) has the least upside of -9.5%. Irfan Ellam Head of MENA Equity Research +971 4 230 7807 mohammedie@emiratesnbd.com Aditya Pugalia Analyst +971 4 230 7802 adityap@emiratesnbd.com Developed Markets The S&P 500 gained +0.6% 5d, as a below consensus jobs report calmed fears that the US fed may accelerate tapering, with utility and telecoms companies leading gains for 9 out of the 10 industry groups. Alco lost -5.4% as it reported below consensus earnings, due to surplus rolled aluminium used in the aerospace industry. Sears dropped -14% after forecasting a Q4 loss, despite ongoing cost cutting and asset sales. In contrast Abercrombie and Fitch gained +12% as it increased its full year earnings estimate. Overall retailers who saw strong online sales over the festive period are expected to post better Q4 results. The Euro Stoxx 600 index gained +0.7% 5d, as Ireland and Portugal returned to the bond markets, unemployment in Germany fell, and ECB President reiterated his pledge to keep interest rates low for as long as is necessary. The Athens Composite rallied +7.6% as Greek borrowing costs declined to their lowest level since 2010. The Stoxx 600 Bank index gained +4.7%, driven by a strong rally in Portuguese and Irish banks. Imperial Tobacco and BAT fell -5.2% and -3.6% respectively as China s National Health and Planning Commission began work on new rules to ban smoking in public places. National benchmark indices rose in 17 of the 18 western European markets, with the exception of Iceland. Emerging and Frontier Markets Emerging markets declines were led by the MSCI EM Eastern European index -2.0% 5d, followed by the MSCI EM Latin America index -1.1% 5d, and the MSCI EM Asia index -0.8% 5d. Frontier markets gains were led by GCC markets, whilst the MSCI FM Africa index declined -1.0% 5d.
Major Equity Markets EPS Growth 2014E MENA Sector /EPS Growth 2014E 60% 40% 20% 0% y = 0.0325x - 0.232 R² = 0.3494 Industrial Telecom Banks Energy & utilities Transport & logistics Construction & building materials Petrochemicals & fert Food & retail Real Estate -20% 4.0 12.0 20.0 2014 ROA 2014 MENA Sector PB/ROA 2014 15.0 10.0 y = 3.4986x - 1.1503 R² = 0.6487 Energy & utilities Telecom Petrochemicals & fert Transport & logistics Food & retail 5.0 Real Estate Construction & building materials Banks Industrial 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 PB 2014 MENA Equity Indices /EPS Growth 2014E MENA Equity Indices PB/ROA 2014 EPS Growth 2014E 20% 10% y = 0.0042x + 0.0761 R² = 0.0145 ISE 100 DSM ADX Tadawul MADEX DFM ROA 2014 4.0 3.0 2.0 y = 1.6919x + 0.0171 R² = 0.6117 EGX 30 DFM ISE 100 ADX MSM Tadawul DSM MSM 0% 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 2014 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 PB 2014 Developed Market Indices /EPS Gr. 2014E Developed Market Indices PB/ROA 2014 18% y = 0.0075x + 0.0051 R² = 0.318 Nasdaq 9.0 y = 3.3866x - 3.7164 R² = 0.6557 Nasdaq EPS Growth 2014E 15% Stoxx 600 Nikkei 12% Cac 40 Dax FTSE 100 S&P 500 9% AS51 Index SMI Dow Jones 6% 10.0 15.0 20.0 2014 ROA 2014 6.0 3.0 AS51 Index Nikkei Dax Dow Jones S&P 500 Cac 40 SMI Stoxx 600 FTSE 100 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 PB 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimates
Major Equity Markets Emerging Market Indices /EPS Gr. 2014E Emerging Market Indices PB/ROA 2014 EPS Growth 2014E 35% 28% 21% 14% 7% y = -0.0018x + 0.1639 R² = 0.0057 Korea Micex Karachi Shanghai Hong Kong Vietnam Bovespa Nifty Jakarta Sensex Taiwan Jo'burg Mexico Malaysia 0% 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 2014 ROA 2014 9.0 6.0 3.0 y = 2.9527x - 0.9404 R² = 0.526 Micex Bovespa Korea Shanghai Karachi Jo'burg Taiwan Hong Kong Nifty Vietnam Sensex Mexico Malaysia Jakarta 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 PB 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimates
MENA Markets MENA Equity Indices (5d% chg) DFM 0.9% ADX 1.3% Tadawul 0.7% DSM 3.1% KWSE 1.6% Bahrain Bourse 1.2% MSM 3.9% EGX 30 2.8% ISE 100 3.0% MADEX -0.9% TUSISE -0.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Benchmark Equity Indices Div 5d 1m Index P/E P/B Yield chg chg Ytd MSCI World 15.04 1.98 2.57 0.6% 4.2% -0.4% MSCI G7 15.05 2.00 2.38 0.4% 4.0% -0.5% MSCI Emerging Markets 10.36 1.34 3.29-1.0% -2.1% -3.2% MSCI Frontier Markets 11.30 0.95 6.31 0.7% 3.0% 1.4% S&P Pan Arab 12.71 1.73 3.57 0.9% 3.7% 1.9% MENA Equity Indices Index Last Price 5d chg T.Value 5d avg P/E P/B Div Yield % above 200d MA DFM 3,505 32.4 255.0 15.2 1.5 2.5 74.2 ADX 4,418 58.6 259.1 11.4 1.6 4.1 57.4 Tadawul 8,678 59.8 1,710.5 13.0 2.0 3.4 66.9 ISE 100 67,912 1945.0 1,432.8 8.8 1.2 2.7 19.0 EGX 30 6,975 192.2 63.4 10.2 1.3 2.8 90.0 KWSE 7,669 119.3 112.2 - - 3.7 39.3 Bahrain 1,263 15.4 3.1 - - 3.8 17.1 MSM 7,156 266.8 36.1 11.6 1.5 3.6 83.3 Qatar Exchange 10,873 327.8 140.0 11.3 2.0 4.2 90.0 MADEX 7,382-65.8 6.9 13.1 1.9 4.5 57.9 TUSISE 4,360-24.9 1.7 - - 2.0 14.3 DUAE INDEX 3,504 25.5 288.6 - - 2.2 100.0 DKUW INDEX 3,954 13.4 - - - - - DQAT INDEX 6,503 193.5 86.3 - - 4.0 100.0 DKUS INDEX 3,134 3.6 21.3 - - 4.1 60.0 DQAS INDEX 8,408 382.9 82.2 - - 3.8 100.0 Relative to Benchmark Indices Index PB Dvd Yld Index PB Dvd Yld Relative to S&P Pan Arab Relative to MSCI Emerging Market Index DFM 19.6% -13.5% -28.7% EGX 30-2.0% -3.2% -16.4% ADX -10.1% -9.4% 14.4% MADEX 26.7% 41.0% 36.8% Tadawul 2.6% 13.3% -4.7% ISE 100-15.5% -11.4% -17.2% KWSE - - 3.2% Bahrain -48.2% - 6.8%
Index PB Dvd Yld Index PB Dvd Yld MSM -8.8% -11.5% 1.5% Qatar -10.7% 13.1% 18.1% TUSISE - - -45.1% Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimates
Developed Markets Developed Market Equity Indices (5d% chg) Emerging Market Equity Indices (5d% chg) DJIA -0.2% S&P 500 0.6% Nasdaq 1.0% FTSE 100 0.1% DAX 0.4% CAC 40 0.1% SMI 1.1% Stoxx 600 0.7% Nikkei -2.3% S&P / ASX 200-0.7% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% MEXBOL KLCI JSE Ho Chi Minh FTSE / JSE Africa Micex Bovespa TWSE KSE 100 Nifty Sensex KOSPI SHCOMP-3.4% Hang Seng -1.4% -1.7% -2.5% -0.4% -0.8% -0.2% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Equity Indices Index Last Price 5d chg T.Value 5d avg P/E P/B Div Yield % above 200d MA Dow Jones 16,437-32.9 4,772.9 14.8 2.8 2.3 83.3 S&P 500 1,842 11.0 28,086.0 15.6 2.4 2.1 82.2 Nasdaq 4,175 42.8 18,334.1 20.2 3.2 1.2 69.8 FTSE 100 6,740 9.3 5,807.6 12.9 1.8 3.8 70.3 Dax 9,473 38.1 4,079.6 13.0 1.6 2.9 90.0 Cac 40 4,251 3.0 4,055.2 12.8 1.3 3.7 72.5 Swiss 8,365 94.7 2,556.7 15.1 2.4 3.3 75.0 Nikkei 15,912-379.3 17,059.7 20.3 1.7 1.5 82.2 Australia 5,312-37.7 2,232.9 14.9 1.9 4.5 66.5 Stoxx 600 330 2.3 31,014.1 13.8 1.7 3.5 78.8 Emerging Markets & Frontier Markets Hong Kong 22,846 29.0 2,990.8 10.1 1.3 3.4 40.0 Shanghai 2,013-69.8 10,544.3 7.8 1.1 3.1 31.1 Korea 1,939-7.6 3,831.0 - - 1.2 41.3 Sensex 20,758-92.8 80.7 15.1 2.4 1.5 63.3 Nifty 6,171-39.7 951.3 14.6 2.3 1.5 54.0 Karachi 26,488 441.6 79.0 7.9 1.7 5.4 94.0 Taiwan 8,529-17.2 3,494.9 14.7 1.6 2.8 77.8 Bovespa 49,696-1284.6 2,214.9 9.8 1.1 3.9 37.5 Micex 1,469-25.6 619.6 4.4 0.6 3.9 62.0 Jo'burg 1,469-657.9 907.7 13.8 2.0 2.8 65.5 Vietnam 519 13.6 53.2 10.6 1.9 3.9 75.8 Jakarta 4,389-34.4 274.8 12.8 2.3 2.2 20.6 Malaysia 1,827-8.1 231.3 16.0 2.2 3.4 74.2 Mexico 42,459 393.5 513.6 18.2 2.5 1.8 54.3 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate
Relative to Benchmark Indices Index PB Dvd Yld Index PB Dvd Yld Relative to MSCI G7 Index Relative to MSCI Emerging Markets Index Dow Jones -1.8% 37.7% -4.6% Hong Kong -2.7% -6.3% 3.1% S&P 500 3.6% 21.0% -13.4% Shanghai -24.3% -18.8% -4.9% Nasdaq 34.3% 58.2% -49.6% Korea - - -63.2% FTSE 100-14.0% -11.2% 60.5% Sensex 45.4% 77.7% -54.5% Dax -13.4% -20.9% 23.5% Nifty 40.8% 70.3% -53.6% Cac 40-14.9% -34.4% 55.5% Karachi -23.7% 29.1% 64.6% Swiss 0.3% 22.2% 40.3% Taiwan 41.8% 20.7% -14.4% Nikkei 35.0% -15.4% -37.4% Bovespa -5.0% -20.5% 18.4% Australia -0.7% -4.5% 90.8% Micex -57.9% -58.1% 19.8% Stoxx 600-8.1% -16.6% 47.5% Jo'burg 32.9% 47.1% -13.4% Vietnam 2.6% 44.1% 18.4% Jakarta 23.2% 75.3% -31.8% Malaysia 54.5% 62.4% 1.9% Mexico 76.0% 90.0% -45.9% Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate
Telecoms Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 20% 10% 0% y = 0.0675x - 0.6487 R² = 0.6619 Du Zain STC Etihad Etisalat Zain KSA ROA 2014 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 y = 3.5394x + 1.3685 R² = 0.1311 Zain Etihad Etisalat Zain KSA STC Etisalat Du -10% 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2014-5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Global Telecom 4.81 3626.4-17.2-13.4 0.7 2.1-2.8 0.0 0.0 58 2.2 Telecom Egypt 14.70 3606.6 9.3 9.5 9.3 9.7 0.9 8.0 9.2 8.8 67 1.9 NMTC 1800.00 3212.1 15.5 9.2 9.3 11.2 1.4 5.2 5.3 6.0 54 0.0 Zain 680.00 10389.0 12.0 11.7 13.7 13.9 1.9 8.1 6.4 7.6 43 2.3 Oredoo 144.00 12668.5 10.3 13.9 12.0 12.1 1.2 3.0 4.8 3.4 72 2.4 Etihad Etisalat 86.75 17809.8 8.8 10.2 30.6 28.6 2.5 15.8 5.5 5.5 62 18.9 STC 57.75 30795.1 11.9 13.3 14.8 16.4 1.7 6.3 4.6 3.5 69 29.1 Zain KSA 9.40 2707.0 - - -27.5-19.1 1.0-6.4 0.0 0.0 57 23.4 Etisalat 11.90 25614.8 10.6 12.3 16.8 18.7 1.8 8.8 7.7 5.9 63 5.3 Du 6.60 8214.4 8.1 15.5 28.8 27.9 2.1 15.2 8.6 5.3 55 2.1 Average 10.8 12.5 9.5 12.0 1.7 6.1 5.2 4.6 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow The UAE TRA announced that 5,000 mobile subscribers had transferred their mobile numbers since the introduction of Mobile Number Portability at the end of December. (Zawya)
Petrochemicals & Fertilisers Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 50% 0% Sahara Tasnee Petchem Ma'Aden SIPCHEM Sabic Yansab IQ Safco APPC Sidi Kerir Petchem y = -0.011x + 0.2875 R² = 0.5302 Chemanol -50% 5.0 25.0 45.0 65.0 85.0 2014 ROA 2014 40.0 y = 8.9576x - 8.5783 R² = 0.9017 Sidi Kerir Petchem Safco 30.0 IQ 20.0 Yansab Sahara Petchem 10.0 Sabic APPC 0.0 Saudi Kayan SIPCHEM Ma'Aden Tasnee Chemanol -10.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI IQ 173.90 28895.8 10.1 12.2 29.8 26.0 2.8 24.2 5.5 5.1 70 11.1 Sahara Petchem 21.05 2462.7 29.1 16.9 3.9 9.3 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.0 79 15.6 Sabic 117.25 93785.0 10.9 13.5 17.3 16.8 1.8 7.4 5.6 4.3 78 115.0 SIPCHEM 31.80 3108.8 11.6 19.7 10.7 10.3 1.2 4.0 6.5 4.0 64 5.4 Saudi Kayan 15.70 6279.0-114.6-5.2 1.5 1.3-1.7 0.0 0.0 61 51.8 Sidi Kerir Petchem 17.65 1331.8 8.0 8.8 35.1 40.9 2.8 26.5 10.2 10.1 68 0.6 Yansab 73.25 10985.7 10.9 14.6 20.8 19.8 2.1 10.8-3.7 58 8.8 Chemanol 15.70 504.8 17.6 36.9 6.0 3.3 1.0 3.1-2.9 66 10.1 APPC 41.50 1814.6 13.1 14.3 16.1 23.0 2.1 9.9 7.6 5.2 58 8.2 Safco 158.00 14041.8 13.1 15.0 45.3 39.7 5.7 39.9 7.9 7.2 65 7.6 Ma'aden 33.50 8262.0 27.5 23.2 6.2 6.7 1.7 2.2 - - 69 12.2 Tasnee 33.30 5939.0 10.5 15.7 15.3 9.9 1.5 4.1 7.2 4.9 60 13.6 Average 14.8 25.5 16.8 17.3 2.1 11.1 6.0 4.6 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow Sahara Petrochemical and Saudi International Petrochemical Company (Sipchem) plan to complete a share-swap merger in the first half of 2014. This would lead to the creation of a firm valued at around USD 5bn. (Zawya)
Banking Sector /EPS Growth 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 40% 30% 20% 10% Burgan Bank DIB y = 0.005x + 0.0949 R² = 0.0195 CIB Bank Aljazira QNB NBK CBQ Bank Muscat QIB Al Rajhi Bank ADCB FGB Samba DB Riyad Bank NBAD 0% 6.0 12.0 18.0 2014 ROA 2014 PB/ROA 2014E 3.0 2.0 Samba CBQ Riyad Bank QIB DB NBK FGB CIB QNB Al Rajhi Bank ADCB NBAD DIB y = 0.5645x + 1.0826 R² = 0.2349 Burgan Bank Bank Aljazira 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI CIB 33.09 4281.4 9.3 11.3 22.8 24.6 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.2 68 4.5 Al Rajhi Bank 71.00 28395.5 12.4 13.3 22.8 21.9 2.7 3.2 5.0 4.8 26 47.8 Samba 50.75 12178.1 9.3 10.0 14.5 13.9 1.3 2.2 3.7 3.6 52 6.8 Riyad Bank 31.00 12398.0 10.0 11.2 11.2 12.1 1.1 1.9 5.7 4.8 78 4.8 Bank Aljazira 38.10 3047.5 15.6 18.1 10.3 11.7 1.6 1.1-0.6 57 6.1 NBK 900.00 14565.6 13.5 13.6 12.8 11.7 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.3 53 3.5 Burgan Bank 560.00 3216.3 14.0 14.7 11.9 8.0 1.6 1.1 1.9 2.1 47 1.3 DIB 6.10 6566.3 6.6 18.6 12.3 13.8 0.8 1.2 7.5 2.9 80 12.3 NBAD 15.00 17583.3 9.2 13.9 15.1 16.1 1.3 1.6 3.4 2.5 75 1.6 FGB 19.05 15559.5 8.4 12.8 14.8 17.1 1.2 2.5 7.2 5.0 61 6.8 ADCB 6.80 10359.4 6.1 11.8 14.3 15.6 0.8 1.5 8.3 4.2 71 4.7 QNB 174.50 33535.5 11.0 12.7 18.7 19.3 1.9 2.5 4.6 3.1 60 7.7 CBQ 73.70 5008.7 8.7 10.0 13.8 12.4 1.2 2.7 8.5 6.8 76 4.7 DB 63.00 4470.6 8.0 11.8 17.8 16.5 1.4 2.4 8.9 5.8 76 3.2 QIB 74.90 4860.9 14.3 13.3 10.9 12.2 1.5 1.9 5.0 5.4 82 2.4 Bank Muscat 0.66 3689.7 8.0 9.6 14.3 12.8 1.1 1.8 4.3 4.1 85 2.4 Average 10.3 12.9 14.9 15.0 1.4 2.0 5.4 3.9 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate
News flow Doha Insurance got in-principle approval for its rights issue. (Bloomberg) Doha Insurance plans to raise QAR 437mn through a rights issue for shoring up its capital base and improving credit ratings. (Zawya)
Real Estate Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 140% 105% 70% 35% 0% Barwa Real Estate Dar AL Arkan Deyaar Development Palm Hill Developments Emaar Properties y = 0.0169x + 0.16 R² = 0.141 Emaar Economic City Aldar -35% 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 ROA 2014 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Dar AL Arkan Palm Hill Developments Emaar Properties Deyaar Development Aldar Emaar Economic City y = 0.5387x + 2.4049 R² = 0.0249 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2014 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Aldar 2.80 5993.8 4.2 11.4 17.6 15.5 0.6 3.7 4.7 1.9 65 29.3 Barwa Real Estate 30.95 3307.7 9.0 9.1 9.3-0.8 2.0 5.5-59 10.5 Dar AL Arkan 10.15 2922.7 9.0 13.8 6.2 5.4 0.5 4.3-0.0 72 30.2 Deyaar Development 1.09 1714.7 52.5 77.9 1.0 2.3 0.5 0.6 - - 82 17.5 Emaar Economic City 13.60 3082.2 37.2 85.0 2.5 2.5 0.9 1.4 - - 68 31.3 Emaar Properties 7.82 13008.4 10.7 20.5 6.6 6.9 0.7 3.5 2.7 1.3 67 35.1 TMG Holding 6.49 1924.8 16.8 22.7 2.2 2.4 0.4 1.0-0.0 71 2.3 Palm Hill Developments 2.75 532.9-18.3-3.9 4.3 0.8-0.9 0.0 0.0 63 5.4 Average 19.9 32.3 5.2 5.6 0.7 1.9 3.2 0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow Nakheel said it will prepay AED 4bn in debt this year (AED 2.35bn in February, 15 months early, and AED 1.65bn in August), adding that it has used AED 1.4bn of available on AED 16.5bn of government funding. (Bloomberg) Emaar Properties plans to build 219 houses in Lila Project in Arabian Ranches for which sales will open on 11 January, 2014. In a separate announcement the company said it will redeem all outstanding convertible bonds on 6 February and that conversion rights may be exercised by 22 January 2014. (Bloomberg)
Food & Retail Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% Alhokair Othaim Agithia Savola y = 0.0029x + 0.1237 R² = 0.0547 Almarai Jarir Marketing 10% 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 2014 ROA 2014 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 y = 2.7243x + 2.0262 R² = 0.8968 Agithia Alhokair Othaim Jarir Marketing Savola Almarai 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Almarai 53.50 8558.0 17.6 21.4 20.2 17.9 3.4 8.2 2.0 1.8 52 6.5 Othaim 124.75 748.4 10.8 15.6 28.4 24.0 2.7 10.0 3.6 2.5 54 4.0 Alhokair 135.50 3793.4 11.8 19.6 35.8 32.2 3.8 18.8-2.1 63 6.0 Jarir Marketing 166.50 3995.4 16.3 22.8 59.0 59.9 9.1 30.8 4.8 3.5 68 7.0 Savola 62.50 8898.3 14.3 19.4 17.5 18.0 2.4 6.5 3.5 3.1 56 5.4 Agthia 4.24 692.6 10.5 15.8 11.5 13.7 1.2 7.9 2.3 1.3 51 0.2 Average 13.6 19.1 28.7 27.6 3.8 13.7 3.2 2.4 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow Al Ghurair Group is said to close a AED 1.3bn loan by end of the month. The loan will have a tenor of 8 years and will be priced at 300bps above EIBOR. (Bloomberg) According to Euromonitor International, in-store retailers are expected to register 5% growth in retail value during 2014, mainly driven by malls such as Dubai Mall, Mall of the Emirates as well as other mega malls (Euromonitor estimates). (Zawya) Investcorp, announced the acquisition of a minority stake in Namet, a Turkish producer of packaged, processed and freshly cut red meat. (Zawya)
Construction & Building Materials Sector EPS Growth 2014E /EPS Growth 2014E 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% OCIC Depa DSI y = 0.0061x + 0.0157 R² = 0.0737-20% 8.0 13.0 18.0 23.0 28.0 2014 Arabtec ROA 2014 PB/ROA 2014E 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 DSI y = -0.1069x + 3.4894 R² = 1 Arabtec 3.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Arabtec 2.91 2487.3 25.3 28.8 4.8 7.0 1.2 1.6-1.3 63 23.4 Depa 0.73 448.8-14.1-7.3 0.4 0.5-3.9 0.0-66 1.1 DSI 1.63 1014.1 16.8 21.7 3.5 6.3 0.6 1.5-0.9 81 16.1 OCIC 293.59 8816.3-12.8-42.4 11.2 4.3-10.2 0.0-62 0.1 Average 21.0 19.4-10.4 6.2 1.6-2.7 0.0 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow Yanbu Cement reported Q4 net income of SAR 162mn (-20.0 y/y). The decline was attributed to lower sales. (Bloomberg) Egypt has invited around 14 consortiums to bid for the development of the Suez Canal area. (Zawya)
Energy & Utilities Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Tabreed y = -0.0175x + 0.2699 R² = 0.4045 Dana Gas QEWC Saudi Electricity 4.0 9.0 14.0 19.0 2014 ROA 2014 10.0 5.0 y = 1.2884x + 2.0507 R² = 0.4196 Dana Gas Saudi Electricity QEWC 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Dana Gas 0.93 1671.6 4.9 9.6 7.1 6.9 0.3 4.9 - - 74 11.0 QEWC 177.80 4883.3 9.2 12.5 35.1 32.1 2.6 8.4 5.5 4.1 58 2.1 Saudi Electricity 14.70 16330.4 21.8 18.4 4.8 5.6 1.0 1.1 5.2 4.8 63 9.2 Tabreed 2.45 439.6 15.2 6.0 5.8 6.3 0.2 2.7 - - 54 5.3 Average 12.8 11.6 13.2 12.8 1.0 4.3 5.4 4.4 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow
Industrials Sector /EPS Growth 2014E 70% Elswedy Electric GB Auto PB/ROA 2014E 1.0 EPS Growth 2014E 35% Oriental weavers Saudi Arabian Amiantit El Ezz Steel Rebars KIPCO y = 0.0192x + 0.2149 R² = 0.1553 0% 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2014 ROA 2014 KIPCO 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI El Ezz Steel Rebars 694.06 1333.1 10.5 9.7 19.2-2.1 3.8 12.5 8.8 81 0.1 Elswedy ElectriC 32.87 1055.5 43.9 19.3 2.3 6.7 1.1 0.8-2.4 69 0.8 GB Auto 33.93 629.1 16.4 22.4 10.6 9.0 1.7 3.6-2.6 50 0.1 Oriental Weavers 35.00 452.7 7.6 9.4 9.3 12.0 0.7 4.4-5.7 72 0.2 Saudi Arabian Amiantit 15.45 475.8 14.7 17.6 7.0 6.5 1.1 2.4 6.9 6.3 63 5.8 Saudi Cable 13.00 263.4 - - -16.3-15.1 1.1-4.0 0.0-71 4.7 KIPCO 630.00 3130.3 16.1 23.3 5.5-1.0 0.5 5.1 3.2 58 3.3 Dubai Investments 2.55 2478.8 9.5-3.8-0.4 2.5 8.2-66 19.3 Average 17.0 16.9 5.2 3.8 1.1 1.8 6.5 4.8 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow
Transport & Logistics Sector /EPS Growth 2014E PB/ROA 2014E EPS Growth 2014E 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% National Shipping Co Air Arabia Agility Aramex QGTS y = -0.004x + 0.2296 R² = 0.0099 DPW 0% 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2014 ROA 2014 12.0 9.0 6.0 y = 5.3371x - 1.2391 R² = 0.4192 Air Arabia DPW Aramex 3.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 PB 2014 Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI Air Arabia 1.55 1969.3 9.3 15.8 7.9 8.4 0.7 5.5 8.4 4.6 65 9.0 Aramex 3.00 1195.8 12.0 15.9 12.6 13.2 1.5 9.4 5.0 3.9 62 0.9 DPW 17.93 14881.9 13.0 25.7 9.6 7.0 1.2 4.3 2.1 1.4 68 2.4 National Shipping Co 29.10 2444.0 12.0 20.6 9.6-1.1 4.6 5.2 3.2 70 14.1 Agility 740.00 2879.8 14.8 13.7 3.9-0.6 2.4 5.9 5.4 63 2.4 QGTS 20.75 3191.4 11.0 14.9 47.6-4.8 2.5 6.6 5.2 53 4.1 Average 12.0 17.8 15.2 9.5 1.7 4.8 5.5 4.0 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow Etihad Airways announced it achieved its highest ever cargo and passenger volumes in. Passenger volumes rose 16% to nearly 12mn from 10.3mn in. (Zawya)
Financial Services Sector Dvd Avg Value Market Cap PB ROA Yld DvdYld Traded 3m Company Price LLC RSI DFM 2.45 5336.2 231.8 76.6 0.5 3.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.2 62 17.1 EFG-Hermes 9.79 807.6 102.1 25.9 0.7 3.1 0.6 0.1-0.9 79 3.4 Average 166.9 51.2 0.6 3.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, Bloomberg Estimate News flow EFG Hermes board approved EGP 1bn share buyback plan. The first phase aims at returning EGP 425mn immediately through a buyback of 37mn shares at EGP 11.5 per share. The second phase is set for Q2-Q3 2014. (Bloomberg)
Foreign Ownership Limits Stock Allowed (%) Owned (%) 1 wk chg (%) 1 m chg (%) Stock Allowed (%) Owned (%) 1 wk chg (%) 1 m chg (%) Dubai Air Arabia 49.00 22.40 0.22 0.25 Insurance House 25.00 0.45 0.01-0.03 Ajman Bank 49.00 2.25 0.01-0.44 ASMAK 49.00 0.20 0.00-0.05 Arabtec Holdings 49.00 9.04 0.13-0.20 Investbank 20.00 2.92 0.00-0.65 Aramex 49.00 36.16 0.01 0.04 METHAQ 25.00 10.59-1.25-11.89 Drake & Scull Intl 49.00 15.25-0.19-0.50 NBAD 25.00 3.05 0.00 0.02 DFM 49.00 3.71 0.01-0.03 RAK Bank 20.00 18.84 0.00 0.12 Dubai Investments 20.00 4.58-0.01-0.30 NMDC 5.00 1.21 0.00 0.00 Dubai Islamic Bank 15.00 7.46-0.32-0.08 Qatar Telecom 100.00 87.25 0.01 0.01 DNIR 25.00 0.19 0.00-0.01 RAK Properties 49.00 30.27-0.11-3.99 Emaar 49.00 16.68-0.37-0.04 RAK Poultry & Feeding 49.00 15.89 0.00 0.00 Du 100.00 0.22 0.00 0.02 RAK Cement Co. 49.00 26.45-0.01 1.78 Emirates NBD 5.00 2.04 0.01 0.03 RAK Ceramics 49.00 15.12 0.29 1.05 GGICO 49.00 1.78-0.02-0.03 RAK Co for White Cement 49.00 19.33 0.01 0.08 Gulf Navigation 20.00 6.40 0.15 0.03 RAK National Ins. 25.00 1.15 0.00 1.10 National Cement Co. 25.00 1.03 0.00 0.00 SCIDC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TABREED 49.00 5.09 0.07 0.16 Sudan Telecom 15.00 1.41 0.00-0.08 Shuaa Capital 49.00 16.45 0.00-0.36 UAQ Cement 100.00 79.94-0.21 0.39 TAKAFUL 25.00 17.67 0.05 0.51 Union Cement 49.00 8.49 0.08-1.28 Takaful House 25.00 3.82 0.16 1.97 UNB 49.00 2.90 0.00-0.09 Tamweel 40.00 1.42 0.00 0.04 United Arab Bank 40.00 8.86-0.02 0.05 Union Properties 15.00 3.57-0.05 0.37 United Insurance Co. 49.00 45.91 0.00 0.00 Abu Dhabi Waha Capital 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ADCB 49.00 8.68 0.05 0.35 Qatar BILDCO 25.00 7.84 0.25 0.39 Al Khaliji 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AD National Hotel 25.00 1.79 0.00-0.02 Al Khalij Holding 24.97 13.97 0.02-0.20 ADNIC 25.00 0.09 0.00 0.01 Barwa Real Estate 24.86 1.93 0.00-0.18 AD Ship Building 25.00 2.38 0.09-0.40 CBQ 24.97 5.54 0.22 0.29 Agthia Group 25.00 12.51 0.03 0.07 Doha Bank 20.27 13.88 0.24 0.40 Al Buhairah Ins. Co. 25.00 8.52 0.00 0.45 Gulf Intl Services 25.00 10.07 0.21 0.66 Al Khazna Ins. Co. 25.00 2.19 0.00-0.03 Industries Qatar 22.50 11.75 0.09 0.42 Aldar Properties 40.00 13.73 0.06 1.12 Masraf Al Rayan 12.25 6.51 0.04 0.09 Bank of Sharjah 30.00 19.59-0.02 0.22 National Leasing 49.00 14.00 0.02 0.20 Comm. Bank Intl 49.00 48.38 0.00 0.03 QEWS 25.00 13.41 0.27 0.77 Dana Gas 49.00 63.33-0.12-0.71 Qatar Gas Transport 25.00 7.11 0.02-0.12 Eshraq Properties 49.00 30.86-2.57-6.82 Qatar Insurance Co. 24.47 10.42 0.09 0.32 Finance House 20.00 10.78 0.02 0.02 QIIB 24.69 3.43 0.03 0.00 First Gulf Bank 25.00 15.44-0.01 0.14 Qatar Islamic Bank 19.39 2.91 0.02 0.11 Foodco Holding 0.00 1.12 0.00 0.00 Qatar National Bank 20.59 3.49 0.02 0.05 Green Crescent Ins. 25.00 8.52 0.00-0.05 Qatar Navigation 12.49 5.49 0.06 0.16 Gulf Cement Co. 49.00 18.87 0.32 0.90 Qatar Telecom 25.00 6.18 0.11 0.10 Gulf Livestock Co. 49.00 66.92 0.00 0.00 United Development - - - - Gulf Medical Projects 49.00 8.26 0.00 0.00 Vodafone Qatar 25.00 13.74 0.05-0.24 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Other Asset Classes Currencies Close %5d chg 1 year fwd Close %5d chg Close %5d chg EURUSD 1.3670 +0.60 1.3673 USDTRY 2.1645 +0.69 EURAED 5.0212-0.60 GBPUSD 1.6483 +0.40 1.6431 USDEGP 6.9612-0.10 GBPAED 6.0539-0.41 USDJPY 104.1800 +0.65 103.8901 USDSAR 3.7504 +0.01 JPYAED 0.0353-0.64 USDCAD 1.0892-2.36 1.0981 USDQAR 3.6408 +0.02 CADAED 3.3711 +2.41 AUDUSD 0.8995 +0.56 0.8779 USDKWD 0.2830-0.16 AUDAED 3.3044-0.55 USDCHF 0.9024 +0.31 0.8991 USDBHD 0.3770 -- CHFAED 4.0693-0.34 EURGBP 0.8294-0.22 0.8322 USDOMR 0.3850-0.00 TRYAED 1.7000-1.18 USDCNY 6.0521-0.01 12.4921 USDMAD 8.2241 +0.45 INRAED 0.0597-1.24 Rates Interbank 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Swaps Close 5d chg (bps) EIBOR 0.4529 0.8129 1.0086 1.1843 USD 2 yr 0.4920-1.9 USD LIBOR 0.1604 0.2417 0.3444 0.5826 USD 5 yr 1.7120-8.0 GBP LIBOR 0.4831 0.5206 0.6131 0.8959 USD 10 yr 2.9515-11.5 EURIBOR 0.1843 0.2593 0.3563 0.5271 EUR 2 yr 0.5040-1.1 JPY LIBOR 0.1086 0.1450 0.2089 0.3714 EUR 5 yr 1.1940-5.9 CHF LIBOR -0.0070 0.0230 0.0844 0.2084 EUR 10 yr 2.1150-5.3 Commodities & Fixed Income Commodities Close %5d chg Bonds / Sukuk YTM 5d chg (bps) CDS Close 5d chg (bps) CRB CMDT Index - -0.04 ADGB 5.5 14-0.4510-37.5 Abu Dhabi 55.5 +0.3 Gold 1248.45 +0.92 DUGB 6.396 14 1.5010-75.0 Dubai 205.0-15.0 Silver 20.16 -- QATAR 5.15 14-0.2020-25.0 Qatar 58.1-3.9 Oil (WTI) 92.72-1.32 BHRAIN 6.273 18 3.2430 -- Saudi Arabia 56.0 +0.7 Oil (Brent) 107.25 +0.34 EGYPT 5.75 20 6.2680 +171.7 Bahrain 220.0-16.7 Aluminium 1721.75-0.32 TURKEY 7.25 15 1.7170 +46.2 Egypt 562.3-30.2 Copper 7329.75-0.01 MOROC 5.375 17 2.1970 +47.0 Turkey 234.2-2.3 Tin (LME) 21895.00 +1.86 BTUN 4.5 20 5.5950 +37.5 Morocco 210.4 +3.2 Zinc (LME) 2026.25-0.45 US Tsy 2 yr 0.3699-2.7 US Tsy 10 yr 2.8579-13.7 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
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