ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMICS SINGAPORE MONTHLY CHARTBOOK 1 AUGUST CONTRIBUTOR Shu Zhen Pay Analyst, Asia Economics + 1 179 ShuZhen.Pay@anz.com FURTHER MODERATION AHEAD Growth risks are now tilted to the downside and the Monetary Authority of Singapore has revised the growth forecast down to -% from -7%. The final Q GDP was revised upwards to.9% y/y, but went down sharply from last quarter s 9.3%. Private consumption and investments added to growth but were dragged down by weak net exports. The pace of property price increases has moderated but will be supported by the low interest rates. Inflation risks remain somewhat elevated due to strong credit growth and a tight labour market. Domestic consumption remains resilient with retail sales posting % y/y growth in. We expect consumption activities to hold up due to an influx of tourism. However, weak external demand has dampened the growth of exports which is closely tied to industrial production. Moreover, the PMI is signalling a contraction in the manufacturing sector. FEATURE CHARTS OF THE MONTH 3 - - -3 - - Singapore - Contribution to Growth by Expenditure (q/q saar) 1 - - -1 Singapore - Retail Sales C I G NX STK GDP Retail Sales Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles Singapore - Purchasing Managers' Index Singapore - Inflation. 8. 8 1. 1... - -. - -1. - -1. Manufacturing PMI Electronics PMI m/m (RHS) y/y 3m/3m saar
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: Q GDP GROWTH SLOWED SHARPLY, OUTLOOK CLOUDED BY EXTERNAL UNCERTAINITES Q GDP growth was revised slightly upwards to.9% y/y but down sharply from 9.3% in Q1. Meanwhile, GDP growth contracted sharply by 7.9% q/q saar compared with 1.7%, previously. The weak profile led the Ministry of Trade and Industry to lower its growth forecast to -% from -7%. On a production basis, Q slowdown was broad-based led by the manufacturing sector falling.% y/y as biomedical manufacturing and electronics output declined. Meanwhile, growth in the construction and services sector halved to 1.1% and 3.9%, respectively. By expenditure, growth was mainly dragged down by net exports. Some of the weakness was offset by resilient domestic consumption (+.% y/y) and a strong rebound in investments (+.%). Singapore - GDP Singapore - GDP 3 1 Long-Term Average Growth - - 7 7 - - Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q y/y q/q, saar Singapore - GDP by Industries Singapore - Contribution to Growth by Industries (q/q saar) 3 3 - - -3 7 7 Manufacturing Construction Services - - Manufacturing Construction Services Taxes GDP 3 1 - - -1 Singapore - GDP by Expenditure Components 7 7 Private Consumption Investment Government Expenditure Net Exports (RHS) 1 - - 3 - - -3 - - Singapore - Contribution to Growth by Expenditure (q/q saar) C I G NX STK GDP
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 3 of 1 PROPERTY MARKET: PROPERTY PRICES WILL MODERATE FURTHER BUT LEVELS REMAIN HIGH Property prices continued to moderate to.% y/y in Q from 13.8% in Q1. On a q/q basis, housing price increases continued to decelerate by.% in Q, the slowest since Q3, from.% in Q1. On a sequential basis, the slowdown was broad-based, except for apartment prices (not including condominiums) which jumped by 1.ppt to 1.8% q/q. Meanwhile, landed and condominium prices eased to 3.% q/q and 1.%, respectively. We expect price increases to moderate further, capped by a surge in construction of new residential units. However, the price levels will remain high and continued to be supported by the low interest rate environment as the Fed has pledged to hold interest rates until mid-13. Singapore - Property Price Index Singapore - Property Price Indices 3 - - -3 7 7 y/y q/q 3 - - -3 7 7 Landed Property Apartments Condominiums Singapore - Median Price-to-Income Ratio Singapore - Private Non-Landed Rental ket 3 18 1 1 Condo:Top 9 Percentile Income -room HDB:Average Median Income 3 1 1 8 7 7 - - -3 7 7 Rental, y/y Median Price:Rent 8 7 3 1 Singapore - Property Sales Transactions Volume (RHS) Value, SGD bn 3 3 1 1 Singapore - Housing Price and Loans 7 7 Housing Loans, y/y.8.....8... Mortgage Loan Rate for 1 Years (RHS) Sources: ura, CEIC, ANZ Research
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: THE BOP SURPLUS CONTINUED TO NARROW AS CURRENT ACCOUNT FELL The balance of payments surplus narrowed to SGD.bn in Q from SGD.bn in Q1 as the current account surplus fell while the financial account remained in deficit. The current account surplus narrowed to SGD1.bn as the goods and services trade surplus fell by 13.% q/q and 1.%, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial account posted a deficit of SGD.bn in Q, the second straight quarter of outflows, but better than outflows of SGD.bn in Q1. The net FDI halved to SGD.bn in Q from Q1 s SGD13.3bn. The slowdown in outflows was mainly driven by a sharp decline in the others category which fell significantly by SGD.8bn to SGD3.bn. 1 - - -1 - - Singapore - Balance of Payments 7 7 Financial A/C Capital A/C Current A/C Overall Balance 1 - Singapore - Current Account Components 7 7 Goods Balance Income Balance Overall CA Services Balance Current Transfers 3 3 1 Singapore - Current Account Balance 7 7 Current A/C Balance, SGD bn (RHS) Current A/C Balance (% of GDP) 1 3 - - -3-7 Singapore - Financial Account 7 Investments Abroad Portfolio Inflows Others Foreign Direct Investments Portfolio Outflows
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 LABOUR MARKET: LABOUR MARKET REMAINED TIGHT The unemployment rate edged up to.1% sa in Q from 1.9% in Q1, amidst high labour force participation. Total employment growth remained steady at 3.% y/y in Q from 3.% in Q1. Employment in the manufacturing sector continued to decline (-.7%), but picked up in the construction (+3.%) and services sector (+.7%). Fewer foreign workers and more emphasis on domestic productivity will keep the labour market tight, resulting in higher wage pressures. 3. 3... 1. 1... 7 Singapore - Unemployment (sa) 7 Unemployed Residents, th (RHS) 8 Unemployment Rate 1 1 - - -1 Singapore - Employment Growth by Sectors Total Employed, mn (RHS) Services, y/y Construction, y/y Manufacturing, y/y 7 7 3.. 1.. -1. -. 1 8 - - - -8 7 Singapore - Monthly Wage Growth 7 q/q (3qma) y/y 3 1 - - -1 - Singapore - Wage Growth by Sector 7 7 Manufacturing Financial Services Construction Real Estate and Leasing
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 CONSUMPTION INDICATORS: DOMESTIC DEMAND REMAINED ROBUST Retail sales growth recorded another strong month in as it rose to.% y/y, up from 8.% in April. Retail sales, ex-motor vehicles, rose to 8.%, down from.% in the previous month. Retail sales growth was lifted by strong motor vehicle sales (1.3%) and luxury goods (.7%). On a m/m sa basis, retail sales edged down by.% in compared with.% in April. Excluding motor vehicles, sales also declined by.7% from a.% gain. However, underlying demand remains strong as a tight labour market and strong tourism flows continue to support retail sales. 1 - - -1 Singapore - Retail Sales Retail Sales Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles 1 - - -1 - - Singapore - Retail Sales ex Motor Vehicles m/m sa (RHS) y/y 3m/3m saar 3 1-1 - -3 - - Singapore - Components of Retail Sales (y/y, 3mma) Singapore - Components of Retail Sales (m/m, 3mma) 1 1 - -1 - -3 - - - Motor Vehicles Departmental Stores Clothing and Footwear Watches and Jewellery -1 Motor Vehicles Departmental Stores Clothing and Footwear Watches and Jewellery Singapore - Luxury Goods vs. Tourist Arrivals (y/y, 3mma) Singapore - Tourist Arrivals by Origin (y/y, 3mma) 3 - - - -3 Tourist Arrivals Watches and Jewellery - ASEAN China Hong Kong Australia Europe
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 7 of 1 PRODUCTION ACTIVITY: PMI CONTRACTED; IP EX-BIOMEDICAL WAS WEAK AS ELECTRONICS FELL The Manufacturing PMI fell below to 9.3 in e, signalling a contraction, the first in nine months. The decline was led by new orders (down.8pt to 8.9) and production (down 1.9pts to 8.7), both below the threshold. Input prices also fell considerably by.pts to an eight-month low of.. The Electronics PMI also contracted as it fell by 1.pts to 9. as output and inventory fell sharply. Industrial Production (IP) readings were volatile as they rebounded strongly to.% y/y in e after a sharp decline in April. The gains were primarily driven by a surge in pharmaceutical output (+1.%), offsetting the tepid electronics output (-1.3%). Excluding biomedical, IP growth slowed to.% from.7%. Singapore - Purchasing Managers' Index Singapore - Manufacturing PMI 8 Manufacturing PMI Electronics PMI Manufacturing PMI New Orders Production 7 3 - - -3 - Singapore - Industrial Production IP IP ex Biomedical 1 - Singapore - Industrial Production Momentum (3m/3m saar) IP IP ex Biomedical - - - Singapore - Industrial Production ex Biomedical m/m, sa (RHS) y/y 3m/3m saar 8 - - - -8-8 - - - Singapore - Components of Industrial Production Electronics Machinery & Equipment 1 - - -1 Chemical Products Pharmaceutical Products (RHS)
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 8 of 1 EXTERNAL TRADE: GROWTH OF EXPORTS REMAINED FIRM BUT IMPORTS FELL SHAPRLY Export growth moderated but remained firm at.% y/y in e as oil exports strengthened. Meanwhile, import growth fell to 3.7% in e from a nine-month high of 18.% previously. As exports outpaced imports, the trade surplus widened to SGD.7bn. On a m/m basis, exports rose by.8% in e compared with a.% decline in. Growth was led by oil exports jumping.%. Meanwhile, imports dropped by 1.1% as crude oil imports fell sharply. On a momentum basis, exports recorded a decline of.%, indicating a slowdown ahead while imports also slowed to 9.9% compared with a 1.7% acceleration in. 3 - - -3 - Singapore - Trade Developments 8 - - - -8 Trade Balance, SGD bn (RHS) Exports, y/y Imports, y/y 3 - - -3 - - Singapore - Composition of Foreign and Domestic Trade Domestic Exports - Oil Re-Exports Imports - Non-oil Domestic Exports - Non-oil Imports - Oil Singapore - Trade Developments (m/m, 3mma) Singapore - Trade Momentum (3m/3m saar) - - - -1 Exports Imports - - -8 Exports Imports 3 Singapore - Trade Balance (USD bn) 3 3 1 - - -1 Regional Trade Balance (USD bn 1m rolling sum) - - -3 - - - -7-8 1m Rolling 3m Annualised NIE ASEAN China Japan EU US (RHS)
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 9 of 1 EXTERNAL TRADE: NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORT GROWTH COOLED IN JUNE Non-oil domestic export (NODX) growth softened to 1.1% y/y in e, down from 7.% y/y in. The slowdown was broad-based, led by electronics, machinery and transport equipment shipments. On a m/m sa basis, NODX posted a.8% decline in e compared with a 7.% jump in. Exports to Singapore s major trading partners climbed by an average of.8% m/m in e, up from 1.3% in (not shown). On a y/y basis, export growth to US turned negative; exports to EU, NIEs and ASEAN cooled; but exports to China jumped (not shown). 3 - - -3 - Singapore - Non-Oil Domestic Exports m/m sa y/y 8 - - - -8 Singapore - Domestic Exports by Products (y/y, 3mma) Electronics Mineral Fuels Chemicals Machinery and Transport Equip 3 3 Singapore - Exports by Products 9 7 Singapore - Exports by Products (y/y, 3mma) 1 Mineral Fuels Chemical Products Machinery and Transport Equip Manufactured Products 3 - -3 - Manufactured Goods Chemical Products Machinery and Transport Equip Mineral Fuels 3 Singapore - Exports by Destination Singapore - Exports by Destination (y/y, 3mma) 3 1 - US China EU NIE ASEAN - US China EU NIE ASEAN
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 EXTERNAL TRADE: BOTH OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS DECLINED IN JUNE Both non-oil and oil imports fell in e after rising in. Non-oil imports fell by.% y/y from 3.7% while oil imports slowed to 13.1% from 1.%. On a m/m sa basis, both non-oil and oil imports dropped by.% and 7.%, respectively, after posting gains a month ago. By product, the slowdown was mainly broad-based and led by a sharp moderation in oil shipments and a decline in machinery and transport equipment imports as it recorded negative readings for the sixth month (not shown). By region, import growth from the EU and the NIEs more than halved (not shown). Meanwhile, imports from the US and ASEAN rose, but Chinese imports fell by 1.3% y/y (not shown). 3 Singapore - Non-Oil Imports 1 1 Singapore - Oil Imports 8 3 - - - - - - - - -3 m/m sa (RHS) y/y -1 - m/m sa (RHS) y/y -3 3 3 1 Singapore - Imports by Products Mineral Fuels Machinery and Transport Equip Chemical Products Manufactured Goods 8 - - - Singapore - Imports by Products (y/y, 3mma) Mineral Fuels Chemical Products Machinery and Transport Equip Manufactured Goods 3 Singapore - Imports by Origin Singapore - Imports by Origin (y/y, 3mma) 1 - US China EU NIE ASEAN - US China EU NIE ASEAN
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / of 1 PRICES: HEADLINE INFLATION ROSE ABOVE % BUT SLIPPED ON A M/M BASIS Headline inflation rose to.1% y/y in e, up from.% in, reflecting a low base as well as high costs of accommodation and transport. However, on a m/m basis, inflation slipped by.3%, led by lower clothing prices (-.9%) and costs of accommodation (-1.1%). Inflation pressures remained on a downward trend as it slowed to 3.% 3m/3m saar in e from.% in. Inflation has likely peaked but the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has revised its inflation forecasts upwards to 3-% and commented that inflation may remain above % for several months. Imported inflation moderated to.1% y/y in e, the lowest in four months. On the supply side, PPI growth rose by.3ppt to.% y/y in e but fell by 1.1% on a m/m basis. The m/m decline was due to lower prices of crude materials and mineral fuels along with chemical products (not shown). 8 Singapore - Inflation 8 Singapore - Inflation.. 1. 1.. - - -. -. -1. - - -1. Headline Inflation Underlying Inflation m/m (RHS) y/y 3m/3m saar Singapore - Trade Prices Singapore - Inflation by Components 1 - - - - -1 Export Price Import Price -1 Headline Inflation Housing Transport Food 1 Singapore - Manufacturing PPI Singapore - Manufacturing PPI by Industries - - -1 - - - - - -1 - - - - m/m y/y -8 - -3 Machine and Transport Equip Manufactured Goods Chemical Products
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 1 of 1 MONEY AND CREDIT: GROWTH REMAINED ROBUST IN THE CREDIT SECTOR Money supply (M) growth edged down to.7% y/y in e from.8% in. Meanwhile, credit activity remained robust, rising to.% y/y in e from.% a month ago. Total outstanding loans broke another new high to SGD37.3bn as business and consumer loans continued to grow. Business loans jumped to 31.9% y/y from 7.% in as lending in manufacturing sector surged. On the consumer side, loan growth remained strong, as housing and personal loans rose. 3 Singapore - Money Supply 3 Singapore - Money and Credit Growth 1 1 M1 M Loans and Advances M 3 3 1 - - Singapore - Loans and Advances Total Business Consumer 3 3 1 Singapore - Loans and Advances Business Consumer 3 - - -3 Singapore - Business Loans by Segments Manufacturing C onstruction Financial Institutions Commerce 1 - - Singapore - Consumer Loans by Segments Housing Personal Car
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 13 of 1 EXCHANGE RATES AND RESERVES: THE SGD FIRMED AGAINST THE USD The SGD was choppy during the month as the debt ceiling impasse resulted in an appreciation against the USD, but was weighed down by worries over the global economy. However, the US Fed s unprecedented promise of keeping interest rates near zero through mid-13 has helped lift the SGD. The SGD gained around 1.38% for the past month and the USDSGD is trading at around the 1. level*. In currency crosses, the SGD performance was mixed. It rose against the EUR and AUD by around.9% and.7%, respectively. However, it fell by.17% against the JPY, as investors sought safehaven currencies. The three-month SGD SIBOR remained stable at.37% in ust, while the one-month SGD SIBOR edged down to.31% in ust from.319% in July. * as of ust 1 Singapore - Estimated S$NEER 13 Singapore - Exchange Rates 1. 7 1 98 9 NEER Midpoint Upper Bound Lower Bound 18 1 1 8 USDAXJ USDSGD (RHS) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.3 1.3 1. 1. 1.1 1 Singapore - Effective Exchange Rate Index (=). Singapore - Key Exchange Rates Crosses 8. 1.8 1 8 1. 1. 1. 1. Nominal Real.8 EURSGD JPYSGD AUDSGD Singapore - FX Reserves (USD bn). Singapore - Interest Rates and STI (SGD) 3. 3 1 1. 1.. Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul. 1-month SIBOR 3-Month SIBOR STI (RHS) 1
Singapore Monthly Economics Chartbook /1 ust / 1 of 1 SINGAPORE DATA SCHEDULE DATE 1 17 3 31 DATA/EVENT MARKET FORECAS LAST* TIME (SG/HK) TS* Retail Sales Ex Auto () - - 8.3% 13: Retail Sales () - -.% 13: Retail Sales sa () - - -.% 13: Electronic Exports (Jul) - - -17.% 8:3 Non-oil Domestic Exports (Jul).% 1.1% 8:3 Non-oil Domestic Exp sa (Jul) - - -.% 8:3 CPI m/m (Jul) - - -.% 13: CPI (Jul) - -.% 13: Industrial Production m/m sa (Jul) - - 1.% 13: Industrial Production (Jul) - -.% 13: Credit Card Bad Debts (Jul) - - 1.M : Credit Card Billings (Jul) - - 3.3M : Bank Loans & Advances (Jul) - -.% : M Money Supply (Jul) - -.7% : Electronics Sector Index () - - 9. 1:3 Purchasing Managers Index () - - 9.3 1:3 7 Foreign Reserves () - - $9.1B 17: 13 Singapore Manpower Survey (Q) - - 9.% 8:1 *y/y data unless otherwise stated
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