CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH Fall 2016 California & Metro UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH Del Norte Siskiyou Modoc Humboldt Trinity Shasta Lassen Tehama Plumas Mendocino Glenn Butte Sierra Nevada Lake Colusa Sutter Yuba Placer Sonoma San Francisco Marin San Mateo Napa Yolo Solano Contra Costa Alameda Santa Clara Sacramento San Joaquin El Dorado Amador Stanislaus Calaveras Merced Alpine Tuolumne Mariposa Madera Mono Santa Cruz San Benito Fresno Inyo Monterey Kings Tulare California & Metro Forecast is published by the Center for Business and Policy Research University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business San Luis Obispo Kern San Bernardino Santa Barbara E-mail Web Stockton Sacramento cbpr@pacific.edu Pacific.edu/CBPR 209.946.7385 916.340.6084 Ventura Los Angeles Staff Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael, Director Dr. Thomas Pogue, Associate Director Nahila Ahsan, Research Analyst Jesse Neumann, Economic Research Analyst Neriah Howard, Student Researcher Anjul Shingal, Student Researcher Sydney Stanfill, Student Researcher Santa Barbara Ventura Santa Barbara Los Angeles Orange San Diego Riverside Imperial UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
2016-2020 California & Metro Fall 2016 October 4, 2016 Published quarterly by the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business. Copyright 2016 Center for Business and Policy Research. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Center s judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Center for Business and Policy Research nor The Regents of the University of the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Center for Business and Policy Research, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication, or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
Contents California Highlights... 5 Forecast Summary...6-10 California Forecast Tables... 11-16 California Forecast Charts...17-21 Fresno MSA...23-26 Merced MSA...27-30 Modesto MSA...31-34 Oakland MSA... 35-38 Sacramento MSA...39-42 San Francisco MSA... 43-46 San Jose MSA...47-50 Stockton MSA...51-54
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS Highlights of the Fall 2016 California Forecast California is forecast to experience relatively steady growth in real gross state product, averaging 2.5% growth through 2020. The California unemployment rate has reached its low point in this cycle and is projected to stabilize between 5.5% and 6% over the next four years. Nonfarm payroll jobs continue to grow at a solid 2.6% statewide after exceeding 3% in the previous three years. Nonfarm payroll growth is projected to drop below 2% in 2017 and settle towards a consistent 1% growth rate in 2018 and beyond. Health Services has become the largest employment sector in the state and is projected to add an additional 50,000 positions over the next 12 months, slightly less than the 65,000 jobs added in the past 12 months. Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has fueled the recovery. Growth in this sector will slow to about 25,000 jobs over the next year compared to over 50,000 in some recent years as Silicon Valley growth cools. Growing tourism and a gradual shift in consumer spending from retail to restaurants has fueled rapid growth in the Leisure & Hospitality sector. However, this sector s growth is slowing to 30,000 new jobs over the next 12 months and will cool further to 15,000 new jobs each year as the higher minimum wages lead to slower hiring. State and local government employment will be one of the slowest growing sectors, projected at 1% or less job growth over the next several years as state and local governments grapple with slower revenue growth and rising pension costs. State and local government payrolls in California have still not recovered to their pre-recession level. About 35,000 new Construction jobs are anticipated in each of the next three years, just below a 4% annual growth rate. Despite this expected growth, there will still be fewer Construction jobs in 2020 than before the recession. Single-family housing starts are growing slowly and are projected to just eke over 50,000 units in 2016. We project a much more substantial increase to 77,000 units in 2017 as the state s growing housing shortage finally spurs interest in new homes. Multi-family housing starts have surpassed pre-recession levels, but growth has stalled in recent months and 2016 is on track to be similar to the 45,000 multifamily units produced in 2015. We expect multi-family growth to resume in 2017 and exceed 60,000 units by 2019. Center for Business and Policy Research 5
FORECAST SUMMARY California Outlook The California economy is maintaining steady growth as the election is about five weeks away. The unemployment rate is about 5.5% and is not projected to drop any further in this cycle. We project the unemployment rate will slowly drift upwards towards 6% over the next few years as labor force growth picks up to match or slightly exceed projected employment growth. California has continued to add jobs at an over 2% pace throughout 2016, but we expect job growth will slowly recede to a 1% pace over the next two years. Solid job growth is fueling increased demand for housing across California. Both rents and home prices are growing at about a 10% pace in most areas of California, including inland markets such as Sacramento, which is somewhat faster than we had projected. Construction of new homes and apartments continues to recover from the recession but has grown more slowly than we have forecast. This weak growth in housing supply is contributing to rising housing costs, and over the next few years is likely to lead to somewhat slower economic growth in California over the long-run. In the near-term, we expect this continued strong demand for housing will drive a significant increase in construction activity in 2017 and 2018. New housing starts are now projected to come in under 100,000 units for 2016, but we expect new housing starts to exceed 125,000 units in 2017 and surpass 150,000 units in 2019 and 2020. Even this much higher level of production will not cause housing prices to decline in a state that is projected to add nearly 400,000 new residents per year. While the state s economy has not yielded too many changes of late, the economic policy environment has been full of surprises. This past spring the state of California increased the state minimum wage to $15 by 2022, nearly doubling in less than eight years (the minimum wage was $8 per hour until July 2014, and is currently at $10). A few months later, the Republican nomination for President went to someone who centers their economic policy on protectionism and openly threatens trade wars with the primary trading partners of the U.S. In addition to the Presidential election, California s ballot includes 17 statewide voter initiatives, several of which could have important economic consequences, and a number Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real Gross State Product (% change) 4.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 Housing Starts (thousands) 91.4 96.9 128.2 144.1 152.9 159.0 6 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
FORECAST SUMMARY of local tax measures, often for transportation. While there are scores of important state and local elections, the next few paragraphs briefly discuss the Presidential election and a few of the voter initiatives with potentially significant economic consequences in the near to medium term. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION A Hillary Clinton presidency is expected to continue the incremental advance of economic policies endorsed by President Obama. She has proposed raising the national minimum wage, increased spending on infrastructure and early childhood education, and free public college tuition. To raise revenue to support this new spending, she proposes to increase income taxes by limiting itemized deductions, higher tax rates on those with incomes over $5 million annually, and increase estate taxes. Clinton s economic policy would invest in areas that would have substantial long-run benefits for the U.S. economy, but tax increases could reduce growth in the near term. It is uncertain how much of this agenda would be implemented, and a Clinton election is unlikely to have major impact on the economic forecast. If Donald Trump is elected, the near term economic effects are highly uncertain. If he were to follow through on promises to impose tariffs on certain imported goods, threaten leaving the World Trade Organization, and restrict immigration, a Trump presidency would have negative effects on both the U.S. and global economy. However, other parts of Donald Trump s proposals could stimulate the U.S. economy in the near-term and he is likely to want to do what he can to give the economy an immediate boost so that voters can feel the effect of his election. For example, he proposes a large tax cut, an even larger investment in infrastructure than Clinton, increased military spending without any offsetting proposals to significantly reduce government spending in other areas. If Congress were to go along with these elements of the plan, the economy would receive a near-term jolt from increased deficit spending while the federal debt would grow substantially over time. While stimulative in the short-run, the increase to the deficit will create long-run problems for the U.S. economy, especially considering that the current deficit is already very high by historic standards. Overall, the near-term economic effects of a Trump presidency are highly uncertain between the effects of global instability and domestic stimulus. However, the long-term economic effects of his approach are seen as negative in the view of most economists. While polls show slightly more voters trust Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton to manage the economy, no modern Presidential candidate has received less support from professional economists than Trump. Leading Republican economists who have consistently served as advisors to Republican Presidents, such as Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw, have publicly denounced Trump s economic platform. Trump placed third behind Clinton and Libertarian Gary Johnson in a poll of the National Association of Business Economists. The Economist magazine lists his potential election as one of the top threats to the global economy. Trump certainly did not win over economists during the first Presidential debate when he criticized highly-respected Fed Chair Janet Yellen for playing politics with interest rates, raising concerns that he could try to reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve. SELECTED CALIFORNIA PROPOSITIONS As mentioned previously, there are 17 propositions on the California ballot. The four highlighted below are likely to have the largest economic effects over the next few years. The discussion of potential economic effects should not be interpreted as taking a position in favor or opposition of any of these Propositions. Some Propositions not on this list, including one requiring a public vote on large Center for Business and Policy Research 7
FORECAST SUMMARY revenue bonds, continuing a hospital fee, and an increase to the cigarette tax could also affect billions of dollars of economic activity over time, but we do not believe they will have as large economic impacts in the near term. Prop 51: $9 billion School Bond The Governor opposes this bond and like many opponents would like to see a new system for allocating school construction funds that prioritize lower-income communities and puts most of the cost of new schools on new development. The current and historic system of allocating bond funds requires matching local funds and thus is thought to favor districts with new development or that pass local parcel taxes to generate the local cost share. There are many local school tax measures on the November ballot, in large part motivated by Proposition 51. With funds from the 2006 school bond mostly exhausted, development fees could double. Fees could increase by $4 to $6 per square foot in most areas, or $10,000 on a 2,000 square foot house if Proposition 51 fails. At this point, Proposition 51 appears to be leading in the polls. However, if it fails, we will likely revise down our projected increase in housing starts for 2017. Prop 55: 12 year Extension of Income Tax Increase on High Earners In 2012, California voters approved a tax increase on incomes over $250,000 per year and a small sales tax increase that would begin phasing out in 2018. This proposition would allow the sales tax increase to expire, but would extend the tax rate increase on high-earners through the year 2030. Since 2012, California has the highest income tax rates in the nation on households with over a million dollars in annual income, and this proposition would make that temporary measure effectively permanent. Since the 2012 increase is authorized for a few more years, failure would not have immediate economic effects but would put tax policy at the center of the 2018 election for a Governor to replace Jerry Brown. While the tax increase did not cause an out-migration of high-earners from California as some opponents predicted, any expected economic response to a marginal tax rate increase would only be expected over time. A long-term extension of state income taxes that top out at 13.3%, about double the top rate in most states, could further solidify California s reputation for a poor business climate and perpetuates the problem of highlyvolatile tax revenue strongly impacted by investment income. The tax increase has been credited with stabilizing the state budget and restoring education funding that had slipped behind most other states, while targeting the tax increase on high earners who have seen the largest income gains. Prop 61: Drug Prices This is the most expensive campaign, highlighting its economic significance to the pharmaceutical industry. With drug price increases by the pharmaceutical industry receiving a lot of negative press, an initiative promising to limit drug costs even if it only applies to certain government programs is expected to be politically popular. While the direct effect of the proposal is to lower drug prices for certain state programs by linking them to the low negotiated rates of the Veterans Administration (VA), there could be variety of unintended consequences that are typical of efforts to adjust prices through laws and policy. For example, the industry could refuse to supply certain drugs at the mandated price and negotiated prices with the VA could change since it would now be setting prices by proxy for other programs. With billions of spending every year on prescription drugs in the balance, Prop 61 would have significant economic effects if passed. 8 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
FORECAST SUMMARY Prop 64. Marijuana Legalization The implications of Proposition 64 are far reaching, encompassing criminal justice, health, economics and more. Economically, Proposition 64 would have significant effects, creating a new multibillion industry and unleashing a large amount of investment in new enterprises. Since illegal marijuana is already a multi-billion dollar business, it might seem the economic effects would be small. However, the legalization would likely lead to some increase in demand and more importantly would result in substantial new investment as enterprises positioned themselves to take advantage of a new and restructured industry. Marijuana production could shift from rural areas where the advantage is the ability to hide from enforcement authorities, to moderate cost urban areas in inland California with better access to markets. However, Proposition 64 allows local governments to regulate or even ban marijuana related businesses, so the structure of the economic change in California will critically depend on the reaction of local governments. Some of the largest job gains are likely to occur in processing of marijuana related products, and these new manufacturing jobs would have to be located in California since products could not be transported across state lines. Legalization will not eliminate the illegal industry in California, as the state is expected to remain a major exporter of marijuana to other states where it remains illegal. Disclosure: CBPR has been studying the economic impact of this potential new industry for an investment firm supporting legalization, and will release the results of that study in the next few weeks. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK The long predicted Bay Area slow down is occurring slower than expected. The San Jose and San Francisco areas continue to lead the state s employment growth, although it has cooled from an over 4% annual pace to a still vibrant 3.5% growth in 2016, about a full percentage point more than we predicted a year ago. This slow-down should continue as venture capital investment is declining, and extreme housing costs will deter the migration of talent to the area, causing some residents and companies to question their longrun future in the region. Despite these challenges, the dynamic Bay Area economy should continue to grow jobs faster than the California average and attract significant investment and people to its dynamic entrepreneurial culture and unique quality of life. We expect a gradual slowdown to 2.3% job growth in 2017, followed by a gradual path to 1% job growth in 2019 and beyond as unemployment stabilizes just over 3%. The Fresno area continues to see steady growth with the unemployment rate stabilizing just under 10%, a high number by any national comparison, but relatively good for this agriculture centered economy where double-digit unemployment is a historical norm. The outward force of the Bay Area economy will result in the Stockton MSA continuing to have the fastest economic growth of inland regions as it is closest to the Bay Area. Employment growth is on track for a 3.7% gain in 2016 and is projected to remain above 3% in San Joaquin County for 2017, the fastest of all Northern California metro areas. In particular, the southern tier of San Joaquin County (Tracy, Manteca, Lathrop) is being fueled by rapid job growth in transportation and distribution, rising incomes for Bay Area commuters, increasing demand for housing that is restarting long-dormant new construction. The data show Modesto and Merced are also growing employment at an over 3% rate for 2016, but we feel this preliminary employment data for 2016 may be slightly overstating growth in the other North San Joaquin Valley counties at the moment and therefore have decreased our 2017 job growth forecast to below 2% growth to compensate. Center for Business and Policy Research 9
FORECAST SUMMARY As the long-anticipated Golden One Center opens in downtown Sacramento, the private sector in the capital region is showing signs of life while employment growth in its foundational public sector slows. However, public sector salaries are rising again in Sacramento even as slow state employment growth results in overall job growth in the Sacramento area lagging behind most inland regions. While the slowest to recover, we are still optimistic about the future of the Sacramento economy, and expect that it will retain more stable growth as some surrounding economies slow-down in the coming years and private sector employment opportunities in the Sacramento area continue to expand. Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sacramento 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 Stockton 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 1.1 8.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.2 Modesto 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 9.5 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.5 Merced 1.9 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 11.4 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.7 Fresno 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 10.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.1 California 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo Counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus Counties. Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 San Francisco 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.2 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 San Jose 4.1 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 Oakland 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 California 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda Counties. San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito Counties. 10 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 1. Annual Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 1537.1 1583.4 1691.0 1812.3 1849.5 1939.5 2061.1 2150.3 2255.3 2376.5 2498.6 2626.7 Calif. (%Ch) -4.1 3.0 6.8 7.2 2.1 4.9 6.3 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.1 5.1 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1913.7 1960.9 2031.3 2121.6 2215.2 2325.0 2458.5 2559.4 2689.7 2810.6 2934.6 3067.2 Calif. (%Ch) -4.0 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 1913.7 1931.5 1958.1 2004.4 2055.6 2118.9 2206.8 2262.3 2328.6 2385.4 2441.9 2501.3 Calif. (%Ch) -4.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 4.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment -4.0-0.5 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 Labor Force 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.3 8.8 7.5 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm California -5.6-1.0 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 Mining -9.3 3.0 7.6 5.9 0.4 3.1-8.2-11.0 1.2 4.7 1.9 1.6 Construction -21.0-9.8 0.2 5.1 8.1 5.8 7.7 4.9 3.2 4.1 2.9 2.3 Manufacturing -10.1-3.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.4-0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 Nondurable Goods -8.2-2.4-0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7-0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 Durable Goods -11.2-3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 1.8-0.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 Trans. Warehs. & Utility -6.0-1.7 1.7 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.8 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 Wholesale Trade -8.3-0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 Retail Trade -7.2-0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.6-1.0-0.3-0.5 Financial Activities -7.0-2.9 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.6-0.5-0.3-0.4 Prof. and Business Services -7.9 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.4 3.5 3.0 3.3 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.9 Edu & Health Services 3.0 0.8 1.4 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.8 3.8 2.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality -4.4-0.1 2.3 4.1 4.9 4.9 3.9 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 Information -7.4-2.8 0.5 1.0 3.2 3.1 4.2 2.9-1.4 3.7 0.2-0.5 Federal Gov't. 1.1 6.8-4.6-1.8-2.0-1.2 0.8 0.9-0.2-1.6-1.8 4.7 State & Local Gov't. -1.8-2.1-1.3-1.3 0.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 Other Indicators Population (thous) 37012.2 37382.8 37743.9 38100.9 38462.7 38834.8 39189.8 39552.6 39931.1 40325.8 40723.5 41118.3 (%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 36.0 39.1 45.8 56.0 72.6 79.1 91.4 96.9 128.2 144.1 152.9 159.0 Housing Starts Single Family 26.7 26.7 23.9 28.8 36.8 41.8 46.2 50.3 76.9 87.4 89.7 91.7 Housing Starts Multi-Family 9.4 12.3 21.9 27.2 35.9 37.3 45.2 46.6 51.3 56.7 63.3 67.3 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1711.9 1848.2 2052.8 2088.3 2138.9 2145.7 2126.6 2105.6 Retail Sales (Billions $) 400.7 426.1 462.4 493.3 507.8 529.1 540.8 555.4 582.8 609.4 636.8 663.0 Center for Business and Policy Research 11
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 2011.0 2056.2 2077.8 2099.7 2119.4 2132.1 2161.8 2187.9 2214.9 2241.4 2267.4 2297.3 Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 5.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.1 4.9 5.0 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2403.3 2459.7 2474.3 2496.7 2513.8 2537.2 2575.4 2611.3 2645.5 2678.6 2705.4 2729.5 Calif. (%Ch) 5.7 6.4 5.2 5.8 4.6 3.1 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2171.4 2212.2 2214.4 2229.1 2240.2 2249.2 2271.2 2288.7 2307.3 2324.7 2336.5 2345.9 Calif. (%Ch) 4.0 4.8 3.5 4.2 3.2 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.5 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Labor Force 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm California 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.2 Mining -2.2-6.8-10.7-13.2-13.0-12.0-10.5-8.4-3.9-0.6 3.6 5.8 Construction 6.7 7.5 8.8 8.0 6.5 5.5 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6 Manufacturing 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.6-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.3-0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 Nondurable Goods 1.0 1.1 0.9-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 Durable Goods 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.1-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 5.9 5.6 6.6 4.9 4.2 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.7 Wholesale Trade 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 Retail Trade 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.4-0.2 Financial Activities 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.2-0.2 Prof. and Business Services 2.9 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.6 Edu & Health Services 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.4 Leisure & Hospitality 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.4 2.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 Information 4.1 4.8 4.7 3.3 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.2-0.4-4.3-3.2 Federal Gov't. 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1-0.4-0.8 State & Local Gov't. 2.3 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 Other Indicators Population (thous) 39056.7 39144.8 39233.8 39324.0 39414.7 39506.1 39598.3 39691.3 39785.7 39881.7 39979.3 40077.7 (%Ch) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 84.6 105.9 94.5 80.7 89.1 95.5 97.6 105.5 115.4 128.0 132.1 137.3 Housing Starts Single Family 42.1 49.6 46.6 46.7 46.8 45.9 50.4 58.1 67.6 76.4 79.9 83.5 Housing Starts Multi-Family 42.6 56.3 47.9 34.0 42.2 49.6 47.2 47.4 47.8 51.5 52.2 53.8 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1985.7 2024.1 2101.5 2099.8 2064.5 2043.1 2130.7 2114.8 2108.7 2134.4 2153.2 2159.4 Retail Sales (Billions $) 532.5 539.6 544.6 546.5 546.6 551.4 557.0 566.8 571.9 580.2 586.7 592.4 12 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 2. Quarterly Summary 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income and Gross State Product Personal Income (Bil. $) 2332.8 2362.4 2390.4 2420.3 2452.7 2483.1 2513.6 2544.8 2579.5 2611.9 2642.4 2672.7 Calif. (%Ch) 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2764.6 2795.8 2829.7 2852.5 2886.4 2915.8 2955.0 2981.1 3014.4 3053.1 3089.1 3112.1 Calif. (%Ch) 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.4 Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2364.1 2378.7 2395.6 2403.1 2419.5 2432.5 2452.9 2462.5 2476.7 2495.9 2513.1 2519.6 Calif. (%Ch) 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Labor Force 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 CA Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm California 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 Mining 6.1 5.6 4.4 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 Construction 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 Manufacturing 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Nondurable Goods 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.1 Durable Goods 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Trans. Warehs. & Utility 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Wholesale Trade 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 Retail Trade -0.7-1.0-1.1-1.0-0.6-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6 Financial Activities -0.4-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3 Prof. and Business Services 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 Edu & Health Services 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 Leisure & Hospitality 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Information -1.1 3.7 6.6 5.6 2.4-0.2-0.4-0.9-1.0-1.0-0.4 0.3 Federal Gov't. -1.2-1.6-1.8-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-0.7 14.1 5.4-0.1 State & Local Gov't. 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Other Indicators Population (thous) 40176.6 40276.1 40375.5 40475.0 40574.5 40674.0 40773.2 40872.3 40971.1 41069.6 41167.5 41264.9 (%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 141.2 142.0 145.0 148.1 149.7 152.1 153.8 156.2 157.9 158.5 159.6 159.9 Housing Starts Single Family 86.1 86.9 88.0 88.5 88.0 89.3 90.3 91.1 91.8 91.9 91.8 91.3 Housing Starts Multi-Family 55.2 55.2 57.0 59.6 61.7 62.8 63.4 65.1 66.0 66.6 67.8 68.6 New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 2155.6 2147.3 2141.4 2138.4 2134.4 2128.8 2123.1 2120.1 2114.6 2108.7 2102.9 2096.1 Retail Sales (Billions $) 599.2 606.3 612.8 619.3 626.4 633.5 640.3 647.1 653.0 659.7 666.3 673.2 Center for Business and Policy Research 13
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm 15862.1 15965.6 16146.9 16232.6 16302.9 16423.6 16528.3 16597.8 16666.1 16711.6 16743.9 16794.2 Manufacturing 1288.9 1292.5 1296.8 1290.6 1286.5 1284.4 1287.9 1286.9 1285.5 1291.3 1298.0 1299.1 Durable Goods 807.2 810.0 813.5 811.4 807.6 805.5 807.8 806.5 804.3 809.7 816.6 817.9 Wood Products 22.1 22.3 22.7 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.2 Computer & Electronics 264.7 266.2 266.9 266.9 266.2 266.1 264.3 264.3 262.1 264.3 267.5 269.4 Transportation Equipment 115.4 115.6 117.1 116.4 116.3 115.5 116.1 116.0 115.4 114.9 114.3 113.5 Nondurables 481.7 482.5 483.3 479.2 478.9 478.9 480.1 480.4 481.2 481.5 481.4 481.3 Foods 154.5 155.3 156.0 153.0 152.5 153.6 154.9 155.4 156.3 157.0 157.6 158.1 Non-Manufacturing 14573.2 14673.0 14850.1 14942.0 15016.5 15139.2 15240.4 15310.9 15380.6 15420.4 15445.9 15495.1 Mining 30.4 29.5 28.3 27.7 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.3 26.8 Construction 707.9 720.5 735.7 742.3 754.0 760.0 765.3 770.4 775.9 783.0 790.0 798.3 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 542.4 548.3 560.3 562.8 565.3 564.6 569.4 570.1 573.1 576.7 578.7 580.1 Wholesale Trade 714.5 717.1 723.4 728.4 732.4 739.1 738.4 739.9 742.0 743.0 743.8 744.8 Retail Trade 1650.9 1657.4 1671.4 1673.8 1684.5 1688.5 1696.5 1703.5 1705.2 1705.2 1703.4 1699.8 Information 475.4 482.6 486.5 485.5 492.9 493.5 499.6 499.8 503.8 491.5 478.1 483.8 Prof. & Bus. Services 2461.8 2477.8 2508.0 2537.6 2531.3 2564.8 2596.8 2623.6 2656.8 2679.0 2694.9 2717.2 Admin. & Support 1046.1 1048.0 1060.3 1081.1 1067.3 1074.7 1086.0 1102.6 1129.2 1148.0 1161.5 1179.6 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1187.1 1199.6 1217.1 1225.9 1231.1 1255.6 1275.5 1285.3 1291.7 1295.3 1298.0 1302.9 Mgmt. of Co. 228.6 230.2 230.6 230.6 233.0 234.5 235.2 235.7 235.9 235.8 235.4 234.8 Financial Activities 790.2 795.5 802.2 804.4 800.2 811.0 813.7 816.4 816.0 815.3 815.6 815.1 Real Estate & Rent 268.5 270.4 273.1 275.6 274.2 280.9 282.1 283.7 284.8 285.1 285.4 285.7 Finance & Insurance 521.7 525.1 529.0 528.9 526.0 530.0 531.6 532.7 531.2 530.1 530.2 529.4 Education & Health Service 2413.7 2436.1 2479.7 2493.9 2514.4 2538.5 2563.2 2580.5 2593.1 2604.5 2610.6 2617.6 Education Services 342.0 343.2 350.8 349.2 358.2 365.4 371.0 373.4 370.9 370.3 368.2 367.4 Health Services 2071.7 2092.9 2128.9 2144.8 2156.1 2173.1 2192.2 2207.1 2222.2 2234.3 2242.4 2250.2 Leisure & Hospitality 1802.6 1816.8 1835.1 1858.5 1877.8 1892.1 1897.0 1902.3 1910.2 1919.5 1929.0 1934.8 Other Services 540.4 543.0 548.2 549.6 549.2 552.0 553.2 553.3 552.1 549.3 547.2 545.6 Government 2442.8 2448.6 2471.3 2477.5 2488.0 2509.2 2522.2 2525.8 2527.0 2527.7 2528.3 2531.1 Federal Gov't. 243.2 244.1 244.8 245.5 245.7 246.4 246.9 247.1 246.7 246.5 246.0 245.1 State & Local Gov't. 2199.6 2204.5 2226.5 2232.0 2242.3 2262.9 2275.2 2278.7 2280.2 2281.2 2282.3 2286.0 14 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm 16844.2 16892.5 16927.7 16962.7 16998.0 17031.3 17068.1 17102.8 17139.1 17197.7 17220.1 17246.8 Manufacturing 1300.2 1301.5 1304.3 1307.8 1309.9 1310.9 1312.1 1314.3 1317.1 1318.1 1320.1 1322.3 Durable Goods 818.8 819.9 822.3 825.3 827.1 827.8 828.9 831.0 833.8 835.0 837.1 839.3 Wood Products 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 Computer & Electronics 271.3 272.3 273.8 275.1 275.1 275.3 275.7 276.3 277.1 277.1 277.4 277.8 Transportation Equipment 112.9 112.2 111.7 111.2 110.8 110.5 110.0 109.9 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.6 Nondurables 481.4 481.6 482.0 482.6 482.8 483.0 483.2 483.2 483.3 483.1 483.0 483.0 Foods 158.9 159.5 160.0 160.6 160.9 161.3 161.7 162.0 162.6 163.1 163.6 164.2 Non-Manufacturing 15544.0 15591.0 15623.4 15654.8 15688.0 15720.4 15756.0 15788.6 15822.1 15879.6 15900.0 15924.4 Mining 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 Construction 806.9 815.3 823.6 829.4 834.7 840.1 845.8 850.8 854.9 859.2 865.7 869.9 Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 581.0 583.6 586.0 587.0 587.6 588.4 589.2 590.1 590.8 590.8 591.4 592.2 Wholesale Trade 746.2 748.3 750.7 753.1 755.7 757.8 760.1 762.0 764.7 766.5 769.1 771.6 Retail Trade 1692.6 1687.5 1684.5 1683.5 1683.0 1682.5 1681.8 1680.4 1677.5 1674.6 1671.6 1669.6 Information 498.3 509.8 509.6 511.1 510.2 509.0 507.5 506.3 505.2 504.1 505.7 507.9 Prof. & Bus. Services 2742.5 2761.5 2771.6 2776.6 2788.4 2801.6 2816.7 2829.2 2841.2 2853.8 2870.0 2886.0 Admin. & Support 1202.1 1220.9 1230.2 1235.3 1243.2 1253.4 1264.6 1274.0 1281.3 1288.1 1296.3 1304.8 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1306.2 1307.2 1308.5 1308.7 1313.4 1317.2 1321.7 1325.6 1330.8 1337.4 1345.9 1354.3 Mgmt. of Co. 234.3 233.4 232.9 232.5 231.9 231.0 230.4 229.6 229.1 228.3 227.7 226.9 Financial Activities 812.9 812.0 811.1 810.7 810.4 809.8 808.8 807.7 807.0 805.6 805.7 805.5 Real Estate & Rent 285.6 285.6 285.8 285.9 286.1 286.1 286.1 286.2 286.4 286.3 286.4 286.5 Finance & Insurance 527.3 526.4 525.4 524.8 524.2 523.6 522.7 521.5 520.7 519.2 519.2 519.0 Education & Health Service 2624.2 2630.1 2638.0 2647.8 2657.2 2662.0 2667.7 2675.6 2685.0 2688.4 2696.7 2703.8 Education Services 367.2 367.0 367.0 366.7 366.4 365.8 365.3 364.7 364.3 363.0 362.2 361.2 Health Services 2257.0 2263.1 2271.0 2281.1 2290.8 2296.2 2302.4 2310.9 2320.7 2325.4 2334.5 2342.7 Leisure & Hospitality 1932.9 1933.8 1935.9 1939.5 1940.3 1944.2 1950.1 1954.7 1957.7 1961.2 1966.9 1972.1 Other Services 544.4 542.9 542.2 541.6 541.3 540.2 539.4 538.6 538.5 538.1 538.1 538.0 Government 2535.1 2539.0 2542.8 2547.0 2551.7 2557.1 2561.1 2565.1 2571.5 2609.3 2590.7 2579.4 Federal Gov't. 243.8 242.6 241.6 240.4 239.4 238.2 237.1 236.0 237.8 271.8 250.0 235.8 State & Local Gov't. 2291.2 2296.3 2301.2 2306.6 2312.3 2318.8 2323.9 2329.0 2333.7 2337.4 2340.8 2343.6 Center for Business and Policy Research 15
CALIFORNIA TABLES Table 4. Employment Annual 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 California Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm 14436.0 14282.0 14436.2 14759.1 15153.3 15584.1 16051.8 16463.1 16728.9 16906.8 17050.1 17200.9 Manufacturing 1283.5 1244.1 1250.2 1254.4 1256.3 1274.2 1292.2 1286.4 1293.5 1303.5 1311.8 1319.4 Durable Goods 800.7 773.2 781.0 783.7 783.4 796.1 810.5 806.9 812.1 821.6 828.7 836.3 Wood Products 19.7 19.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.8 17.9 Computer & Electronics 278.6 271.9 275.2 269.9 262.9 263.1 266.2 265.2 265.8 273.1 275.6 277.3 Transportation Equipment 114.6 108.7 105.1 105.2 106.2 109.9 116.1 116.0 114.5 112.0 110.3 109.7 Nondurables 482.8 470.9 469.2 470.6 472.8 478.2 481.7 479.5 481.3 481.9 483.1 483.1 Foods 147.9 147.1 149.5 150.3 150.9 152.9 154.7 154.1 157.2 159.7 161.5 163.4 Non-Manufacturing 13152.5 13037.9 13186.0 13504.8 13897.0 14309.9 14759.6 15176.7 15435.5 15603.3 15738.3 15881.5 Mining 26.1 26.8 28.8 30.5 30.7 31.6 29.0 25.8 26.1 27.3 27.8 28.3 Construction 622.8 560.0 561.0 589.8 637.5 674.4 726.6 762.4 786.8 818.8 842.8 862.4 Trans., Warehouse & Util. 474.5 466.5 474.5 487.3 502.6 523.3 553.5 567.3 577.1 584.4 588.8 591.3 Wholesale Trade 645.1 643.8 657.8 675.7 694.0 710.1 720.8 737.4 743.4 749.6 758.9 768.0 Retail Trade 1522.5 1518.2 1546.9 1570.1 1595.6 1628.9 1663.4 1693.2 1703.4 1687.0 1681.9 1673.3 Information 441.0 428.6 430.6 435.0 449.1 462.9 482.5 496.5 489.3 507.2 508.3 505.7 Prof. & Bus. Services 2063.6 2076.9 2135.1 2242.1 2341.3 2423.9 2496.3 2579.1 2687.0 2763.0 2809.0 2862.8 Admin. & Support 850.4 863.2 882.9 932.1 980.6 1025.0 1058.9 1082.6 1154.6 1222.1 1258.8 1292.6 Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1013.2 1015.2 1049.1 1100.7 1139.4 1173.3 1207.4 1261.9 1297.0 1307.7 1319.5 1342.1 Mgmt. of Co. 200.0 198.6 203.0 209.4 221.2 225.6 230.0 234.6 235.5 233.3 230.7 228.0 Financial Activities 782.6 759.6 761.3 772.8 782.1 781.8 798.1 810.3 815.5 811.7 809.1 805.9 Real Estate & Rent 254.9 248.3 247.1 250.8 258.7 265.2 271.9 280.2 285.2 285.7 286.1 286.4 Finance & Insurance 527.7 511.3 514.2 522.0 523.4 516.6 526.2 530.1 530.2 526.0 523.0 519.5 Education & Health Service 2106.3 2123.2 2153.8 2222.8 2297.8 2365.8 2455.8 2549.1 2606.5 2635.0 2665.6 2693.5 Education Services 286.6 291.0 306.1 315.6 325.8 337.4 346.3 367.0 369.2 367.0 365.5 362.7 Health Services 1819.8 1832.2 1847.7 1907.2 1972.0 2028.4 2109.6 2182.1 2237.3 2268.1 2300.1 2330.8 Leisure & Hospitality 1503.3 1501.3 1536.0 1598.8 1676.8 1758.8 1828.3 1892.3 1923.4 1935.5 1947.3 1964.5 Other Services 485.8 484.7 493.6 505.1 517.3 536.6 545.3 551.9 548.5 542.8 539.9 538.2 Government 2478.9 2448.2 2406.5 2374.8 2372.2 2411.7 2460.0 2511.3 2528.5 2541.0 2558.7 2587.7 Federal Gov't. 251.1 268.3 255.3 250.6 245.5 242.4 244.4 246.5 246.1 242.1 237.7 248.8 State & Local Gov't. 2227.8 2179.9 2151.2 2124.3 2126.7 2169.3 2215.7 2264.8 2282.4 2298.8 2321.0 2338.9 16 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA CHARTS California Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 10% California Real Gross State Product (percent change from one year ago) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 14% California Unemployment Rates (percent) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 17
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 17,500 California Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 1,100 California Construction Employment (Thouands) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 1,700 California Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 18 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 700 California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Employment (Thousands) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1,000 California Financial Activities Employment (Thouands) 950 900 850 800 750 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 2,900 California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands) 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 19
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 2,900 California Education and Health Services Employment (Thousands) 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 550 California Information Employment (Thousands) 500 450 400 350 300 2,400 California State and Local Government Employment (Thousands) 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 20 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CALIFORNIA CHARTS 300 California Federal Government Employment (Thousands) 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 70 California Housing Starts (Thousands) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2,500 California New Passenger & Light Truck Registrations (Thousands) 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 Center for Business and Policy Research 21
METROS
Fresno MSA Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow by 2.9% between 2015 and 2016. Nonfarm employment in the first and second quarters of 2017 is expected to have a 3.1% and 1.8% increase followed by 1.8% and 1.5% growth in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The leading sectors for employment growth for 2017 are predicted to be the Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors with 7.8% and 4.8% increases, respectively. Employment is expected to increase in all sectors with the exception of the Information (-2.6%), Manufacturing (-1.4%), Federal Government (-1.1%) and Other Services (-0.2%) sectors. SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Real personal income in Fresno is expected to grow 2.7% between 2016 and 2017 or $31.6 billion and also 3% between 2017 and 2018 to $32.6 billion. The Fresno MSA s population is expected to reach approximately 998,063 in 2017 and will grow approximately 1.2% to 1.3% each year, reaching approximately 1,036,424 in 2020. An increase in the labor force between 2016 and 2017 of 2% is also expected. The labor force is projected to decrease in growth reaching 1.1% in 2020. The unemployment rate in 2017 is expected to decrease to 9.8% from 10.2% in 2015. Unemployment is estimated to return to 10.2% in 2020. 9% Fresno Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 360 Fresno Payroll Employment (Thousands) 8% 340 7% 6% 320 5% 300 4% 3% 280 2% 260 1% 0% -1% -2% 240 220 20% Fresno Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 18% 16% 14% 180 160 140 120 12% 100 10% 80 8% 60 6% 40 4% 20 2% 0% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 23
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 35.8 36.6 37.0 37.4 37.7 38.0 38.4 38.9 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.6 6.2 6.3 5.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 Wages and Salaries 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 Nonwage Income 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5 Real Personal Income 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.8 37.5 37.9 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.2 39.6 39.9 40.3 40.6 Real Per Capita Income 30.2 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.3 50.2 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.2 52.6 53.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 319.9 322.3 325.8 329.9 328.9 334.1 335.2 337.3 339.1 340.3 341.3 342.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 Manufacturing 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 3.1 2.6-0.5-2.1-3.0-2.6-0.6 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 294.8 297.0 300.2 304.0 303.0 308.2 309.7 312.0 313.9 315.0 315.9 317.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 3.6 2.2 2.0 1.6 Construction & Mining 14.9 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 10.1 7.8 3.7 1.9 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.5 8.5 6.9 5.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.5 62.6 63.6 65.0 65.5 66.0 65.3 65.5 65.7 65.9 66.0 66.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2-0.2 1.0 0.7 Wholesale Trade 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 Retail Trade 37.0 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.5 38.8 38.5 38.7 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 1.0-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.5-2.0-0.1-2.8-4.2-3.1 Financial Activities 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 3.5 1.9 3.2 4.5 3.5 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 Prof & Business Services 31.8 31.7 31.0 31.2 31.0 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.2 33.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.4-1.5-2.0-2.4-0.8 2.5 3.3 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 Educ & Health Services 58.8 59.6 61.1 62.1 61.7 62.4 63.4 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.2 65.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.7 5.0 4.8 3.7 3.4 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 30.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6-2.3 1.3 2.1 2.8 8.0 4.3 3.4 2.7 Other Services 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.7-0.5-0.9-1.2 Federal Government 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-3.2-1.5-1.8 0.3 3.9-0.3 0.4-0.3-2.9-0.3-0.8 State & Local Government 58.0 58.6 59.3 60.7 61.0 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.7 5.1 5.8 5.2 3.0 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 972.4 974.9 977.4 979.9 982.4 985.0 987.6 990.4 993.3 996.4 999.6 1002.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 Labor Force (Ths.) 443.6 444.1 442.8 446.0 444.9 447.9 451.6 453.7 456.0 457.6 459.4 461.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2713 2824 2340 2027 2378 2529 2319 2612 2947 3270 3326 3418 Single-Family 2518 2481 2241 1926 2065 2384 2177 2399 2680 2902 2884 2884 Multifamily 196 343 99 101 313 145 142 213 267 368 441 534 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 24 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Quarterly Outlook for Fresno September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 41.3 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.4 43.9 44.4 45.0 45.6 46.2 46.7 47.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.9 Wages and Salaries 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 Nonwage Income 22.8 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.3 Real Personal Income 32.3 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.4 34.6 34.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.1 41.4 41.7 42.1 42.5 42.9 43.3 43.7 44.2 44.6 45.0 45.3 Real Per Capita Income 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.3 33.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.6 54.1 54.5 55.0 55.4 55.9 56.4 56.9 57.3 57.7 58.2 58.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 343.2 343.9 344.8 345.7 346.7 347.5 348.4 349.2 350.1 352.1 352.3 352.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 Manufacturing 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 317.7 318.4 319.2 320.1 321.0 321.7 322.6 323.4 324.2 326.2 326.2 326.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 Construction & Mining 17.2 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Wholesale Trade 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 Retail Trade 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 Information 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 4.0 7.1 5.9 2.9 0.0-0.8-0.8-1.3-0.8 0.3 0.5 Financial Activities 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1 0.1 Prof & Business Services 34.1 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.6 35.9 36.1 36.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 Educ & Health Services 65.7 65.9 66.2 66.5 66.8 67.0 67.2 67.5 67.7 67.9 68.2 68.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.5 33.5 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 0.8 0.2-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 Other Services 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 Federal Government 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 10.6 9.7 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1-1.6-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-0.6 14.3 5.4-0.3 State & Local Government 63.1 63.3 63.5 63.7 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.5 64.7 64.8 64.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1006.1 1009.4 1012.6 1015.8 1019.0 1022.2 1025.4 1028.6 1031.7 1034.9 1038.0 1041.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 462.7 464.2 465.7 467.4 469.1 470.4 471.5 472.7 474.2 475.6 476.6 477.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.2 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3548 3608 3722 3824 3830 3941 4005 4143 4160 4152 4167 4187 Single-Family 2910 2895 2923 2962 2946 2986 3018 3060 3083 3067 3052 3043 Multifamily 638 713 799 862 884 956 987 1083 1078 1086 1115 1144 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 25
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Annual Outlook for Fresno September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 28.1 29.1 30.9 32.4 33.4 34.6 36.7 38.2 40.0 42.0 44.2 46.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 3.5 6.2 4.7 3.1 3.6 6.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 Wages and Salaries 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 Nonwage Income 15.0 16.0 17.5 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.4 21.2 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.9 Real Personal Income 25.0 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.5 28.2 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.6 33.5 34.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 1.0 4.0 3.1 1.8 2.5 5.9 3.1 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.5 31.2 32.8 34.1 34.9 35.8 37.6 38.8 40.1 41.6 43.1 44.8 Real Per Capita Income 27.1 27.0 27.9 28.5 28.8 29.2 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.9 45.0 45.8 47.3 47.8 48.4 49.9 50.9 52.4 54.3 56.1 58.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.4 1.8 3.4 1.0 1.2 3.3 2.0 2.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 297.6 290.6 291.4 293.6 302.2 312.6 324.5 333.9 340.8 344.4 347.9 351.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.0-2.3 0.3 0.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 Manufacturing 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.9 25.5 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.4-3.7-1.4-0.5-2.5 3.7 6.5 0.8-1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 272.5 266.5 267.6 269.9 279.1 288.7 299.0 308.2 315.5 318.9 322.2 325.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.8-2.2 0.4 0.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 Construction & Mining 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.1 15.2 15.7 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.8-11.9-3.9 5.7 8.2 5.5 7.2 3.8 7.8 1.7 2.5 2.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 55.6 55.2 57.4 58.1 60.7 61.9 63.4 65.6 65.9 66.0 66.5 66.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0-0.8 4.0 1.3 4.4 2.1 2.4 3.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 Wholesale Trade 11.9 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 Retail Trade 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.6 38.7 38.5 38.5 38.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.2 Information 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.7-14.1-1.5 8.1 0.2 1.5 1.6-1.9-2.6 4.0 0.3-0.3 Financial Activities 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4-3.1-3.1-0.9 0.3-1.0 2.1 3.7 0.9-0.2-0.1-0.1 Prof & Business Services 28.2 26.7 27.0 26.8 29.0 31.1 31.4 31.6 33.1 34.4 35.2 36.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1-5.0 1.0-0.5 8.2 7.0 1.2 0.6 4.8 3.8 2.3 2.3 Educ & Health Services 51.3 51.6 52.0 53.2 55.3 56.9 60.4 62.9 65.1 66.0 67.1 68.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.5 0.8 2.3 3.9 2.9 6.2 4.2 3.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.4 31.7 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7 0.7 1.2 3.3 3.4 5.5 2.8 1.0 4.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 Other Services 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.4-1.8 1.5 4.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.9-0.2-0.9-0.4-0.2 Federal Government 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 8.8-4.8 0.2-2.5-1.4-2.1 1.1-1.1-1.6-1.8 4.7 State & Local Government 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 54.2 56.5 59.2 62.0 62.8 63.4 64.1 64.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1-4.3-1.4-3.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 4.8 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 923.0 933.6 941.7 948.7 956.6 966.2 976.1 986.3 998.1 1011.0 1023.8 1036.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 433.6 439.5 443.4 441.0 439.0 440.8 444.1 449.5 458.5 465.0 470.9 476.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.4 0.9-0.6-0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 14.7 16.7 16.5 15.1 13.2 11.6 10.2 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.2 Total Housing Starts 2266 2179 1893 1900 2534 2080 2476 2460 3240 3675 3980 4167 Single-Family 2163 1902 1665 1588 2276 1863 2292 2256 2838 2923 3003 3061 Multifamily 102 277 228 311 258 217 185 203 403 753 977 1106 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 26 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO Merced MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 1.8% between 2016 and 2017 with the most growth seen in the first quarter of 2017 with 2.6% growth. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are in the Financial Activities (9.6%), Federal Government (7.2%), and State & Local Government (5.7%) sectors. The only sector forecasted to experience declining rates in 2016 is Professional & Business Services (3.7%). The Manufacturing, Information, and Other Services sectors are expected to see declining rates in 2017. Real personal income in the Merced MSA is expected to increase to $8 billion in 2016, a 3% increase from 2015 s real personal income of $7.7 billion. An increase in real personal income is expected to continue each year until it reaches $9 billion in 2020. The population in Merced is expected to reach approximately 275,400 in 2017. The labor force is expected to grow 0.4% between 2015 and 2016. The unemployment rate for the Merced MSA is forecasted to be 10.6% in 2016, down from 11.4% in 2015. Unemployment will decline each year, reaching 9.4% in 2020. In addition, housing starts will grow each year with an expected 917 in 2017 and an estimated 1,151 by 2020. 15% Merced Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 75 Merced Payroll Employment (Thousands) 70 10% 65 5% 60 55 0% 50-5% 45-10% 40 Merced Unemployment Rates (percent) Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 20% 200 18% 16% 14% 180 160 140 120 12% 100 10% 80 8% 60 6% 40 4% 20 2% 0% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 27
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.1 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.6 Wages and Salaries 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 Nonwage Income 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 Real Personal Income 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.6 3.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 34.6 35.3 35.7 35.7 36.0 36.2 36.6 36.8 37.0 37.4 37.7 38.0 Real Per Capita Income 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.6 48.8 48.5 48.7 48.9 49.3 49.9 50.2 50.5 51.0 51.5 51.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 4.1 1.8 2.0 2.8 1.2 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 62.6 62.9 63.9 63.6 64.3 65.0 65.7 65.9 65.9 66.3 66.5 66.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.1 2.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 2.8 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.4 Manufacturing 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.2 1.5 8.3 14.7 6.5-1.1-6.3-12.9-8.3-4.9-1.8 Nonmanufacturing 53.2 53.2 53.8 53.3 53.5 54.7 55.7 56.2 56.5 56.8 57.0 57.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.3 2.3 0.8 0.6 2.8 3.6 5.4 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.9 Construction & Mining 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.7 11.3 10.8 4.8 1.0 2.2 3.9 9.6 15.1 15.5 11.9 9.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.0 0.8-1.8-2.4-0.1 0.1 2.3 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.6 Wholesale Trade 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Retail Trade 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9-25.3-25.2-25.6-0.8 0.2 2.8 5.2-0.4-2.3-4.5-2.8 Financial Activities 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.9-0.3-7.0-0.7 6.3 12.9 19.6 16.7 6.6 0.0-1.1 Prof & Business Services 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-6.2-0.3-0.8-7.8-3.4-4.0 0.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 4.6 Educ & Health Services 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 3.8 3.0 1.4 1.4 1.9 3.2 6.1 6.0 5.5 3.6 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.0-1.5 0.5 1.7 4.4 6.8 5.5 5.4 3.2 1.4 1.4 Other Services 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-0.3 7.4 6.9 4.3 2.7-1.3-1.2-0.2 0.0-0.5-0.7 Federal Government 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.5 4.3-0.2 8.3 13.4 4.8 5.1 5.6 1.0 0.7 0.3-0.1 State & Local Government 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 2.3 4.6 2.8 3.2 6.0 6.4 7.1 6.7 3.9 1.9 1.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 267.9 268.5 269.2 270.0 270.7 271.5 272.3 273.1 274.0 274.9 275.8 276.73 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Labor Force (Ths.) 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.4 115.2 115.3 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.4 116.5 116.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1-0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.7 11.5 11.1 11.2 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.2 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 114 58 119 83 169 164 763 780 756 865 949 1099 Single-Family 114 58 119 83 169 164 705 658 673 792 881 1015 Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 121 83 72 67 84 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 28 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Quarterly Outlook for Merced September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 Wages and Salaries 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 Nonwage Income 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Real Personal Income 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.6 40.0 40.4 40.8 41.2 41.7 42.1 42.4 42.8 Real Per Capita Income 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 52.3 52.8 53.2 53.6 54.0 54.4 54.9 55.3 55.8 56.1 56.6 57.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 67.0 67.2 67.4 67.7 68.0 68.3 68.5 68.8 69.0 69.4 69.6 69.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 Manufacturing 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 Nonmanufacturing 57.4 57.6 57.9 58.1 58.4 58.6 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.6 59.8 60.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 Construction & Mining 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 4.9 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 Wholesale Trade 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Retail Trade 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 4.4 7.2 6.3 2.8 0.4 0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2 0.5 1.1 Financial Activities 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1-0.6-1.1-0.6 0.0-0.6 0.0 0.0-0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prof & Business Services 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Educ & Health Services 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.0-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-0.6-0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.1-1.1-1.0-1.0 0.4 15.2 6.3 0.6 State & Local Government 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 277.64 278.58 279.53 280.48 281.5 282.5 283.4 284.4 285.4 286.4 287.4 288.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 116.9 117.1 117.3 117.6 117.9 118.3 118.5 119.0 119.3 119.7 120.1 120.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.1 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1173 1211 1230 1229 1219 1234 1244 1252 1263 1268 1265 1257 Single-Family 1078 1109 1126 1124 1112 1127 1139 1146 1154 1157 1152 1142 Multifamily 95 102 104 105 107 107 106 106 109 111 113 115 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 29
METRO SUMMARY - MERCED Annual Outlook for Merced September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 6.7 7.1 7.9 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 5.3 10.7 2.6 7.2 4.5 5.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 Wages and Salaries 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 Nonwage Income 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.2 Real Personal Income 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 2.8 8.3 1.1 5.9 3.3 5.0 3.0 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 26.7 27.6 30.2 30.8 32.7 33.9 35.3 36.4 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.2 Real Per Capita Income 23.7 24.0 25.7 25.7 27.0 27.6 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.2 30.8 31.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.7 43.2 42.9 45.5 46.3 47.2 48.4 49.6 51.2 53.0 54.7 56.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4-1.1-0.8 6.1 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 57.6 58.4 58.6 59.2 60.5 62.1 63.3 65.2 66.4 67.3 68.4 69.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.7 1.9 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 Manufacturing 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.9-3.0-1.1 2.2 3.9 10.5 2.6 3.4-6.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 49.0 50.1 50.4 50.8 51.7 52.4 53.4 55.0 56.9 57.8 58.7 59.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 2.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 3.1 3.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 Construction & Mining 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -32.0-2.4-1.6 4.1-0.2 7.9 10.4 4.2 13.0 5.1 3.5 2.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-1.0 3.5 2.4 0.6-0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 Wholesale Trade 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Retail Trade 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Information 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 1.5-29.6-7.3 0.2 0.1-25.2 1.8-2.5 4.3 0.8 0.3 Financial Activities 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -12.4 0.0-3.7 0.6-3.1 4.6-1.3 9.6 5.5-0.8-0.1-0.1 Prof & Business Services 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7 3.8 4.6-2.0-0.4-11.5-2.2-3.7 5.2 3.4 2.3 2.9 Educ & Health Services 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 4.9 1.2 1.5 5.7 3.3 3.4 3.1 4.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.3-3.5 2.6 2.4 5.6 7.3 0.7 4.6 2.8 0.2 0.8 1.3 Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.9 0.0 1.3 0.7-1.2-2.9 2.9 1.1-0.3-0.4 0.2 0.3 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 5.2-5.8-5.2-3.2 6.1 1.0 7.2 0.5-0.9-1.0 5.6 State & Local Government 15.0 15.9 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 5.4-1.3 0.3 1.2 3.0 3.3 5.7 3.6 2.3 2.6 2.4 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 253.1 257.1 260.0 261.9 263.7 266.4 268.9 271.9 275.4 279.1 282.9 286.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 110.0 113.5 114.7 115.2 114.9 114.9 115.1 115.5 116.5 117.3 118.4 119.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.2 1.1 0.5-0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 16.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 14.5 12.8 11.4 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.4 Total Housing Starts 120 119 126 180 165 170 93 469 917 1211 1237 1263 Single-Family 118 116 99 77 97 162 93 424 841 1109 1131 1151 Multifamily 2 3 28 103 68 8 0 45 77 101 106 112 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 30 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
Modesto MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.3% between 2016 and 2017 with the highest growth rate seen in fourth quarter at 4.6%. Job growth in the third quarter of 2016 is estimated at 3.2% growth and 2.7% growth in the fourth quarter. The leading sectors for employment growth between 2015 and 2016 are in the Leisure & Hospitality (6%); Construction and Mining (5.7%); and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (4.1%) sectors. Meanwhile, a decline is expected in the Information (-3.2%) sector. Between 2016 and 2017 declining rates are expected in the Information (-4.7%), Manufacturing (-2.1%), and Other Services (-0.9%) sectors. Real personal income is expected to increase 3.5% in 2016 to $17.3 billion, up from $16.7 billion the previous year. Real personal income is expected to grow approximately between 2.5% and 3.1% between 2017 and 2020. The average annual wage is estimated to be $50,600 in 2016 and will continue to grow each year reaching $58,900 in 2020. The population in the Modesto MSA is expected to reach 545,700 in 2016 and will grow each year reaching 571,200 in 2020. Modesto s labor force is expected to grow at a rate of 1.3% for 2016, up from declines in the previous three years. Unemployment is estimated to decline to 8.6% in 2016 from 9.5% in 2015 but will rise between 2018 and 2020, reaching approximately 9.6% in 2020. Housing starts are expected to see increases each year between 2016 and 2020. 10% Modesto Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 190 Modesto Payroll Employment (Thousands) 180 8% 170 6% 160 4% 150 2% 140 0% -2% 130 120 110-4% -6% 100 19% Modesto Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 180 17% 160 15% 140 13% 120 100 11% 80 9% 60 7% 40 20 5% 3% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 31
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 Wages and Salaries 8.1 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 Nonwage Income 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 Real Personal Income 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 37.3 38.0 38.2 38.5 38.9 39.1 39.5 39.8 40.1 40.4 40.8 41.2 Real Per Capita Income 30.6 31.0 31.0 31.2 31.5 31.5 31.8 31.8 31.9 32.0 32.2 32.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 48.7 49.7 49.2 49.6 50.0 50.3 50.8 51.2 51.7 52.2 52.8 53.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 4.5 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.2 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 164.5 165.3 166.8 167.7 170.0 171.7 172.1 172.2 172.5 172.7 173.1 173.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.2 3.3 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 Manufacturing 21.3 21.3 21.1 20.8 21.4 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.9 21.0 21.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 0.1-2.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6-2.3-3.3-1.9-0.8 Nonmanufacturing 143.2 144.0 145.7 146.9 148.5 150.1 150.7 151.0 151.5 151.9 152.1 152.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.5 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 Construction & Mining 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.4 12.5 12.1 8.9 6.7 7.1 4.9 4.3 3.5 2.1 3.6 5.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 35.5 35.6 36.1 36.6 37.1 37.4 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 5.1 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 Wholesale Trade 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Retail Trade 22.3 22.4 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 3.5-3.5-0.5-0.2-6.5-2.4-3.6-4.0-3.5-6.5-4.9 Financial Activities 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8-3.2-1.3-0.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.0-0.3 Prof & Business Services 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.1 1.9 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.6 1.8 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.8 Educ & Health Services 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.3-0.1 Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.6 5.4 6.0 7.5 7.1 5.5 3.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 Other Services 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-0.7 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.1-0.7-1.5-1.7 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2-0.2-0.7 State & Local Government 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.7 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.6 3.1-0.9-0.3 3.3 3.7 5.5 5.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 536.8 538.4 540.0 541.7 543.3 545.0 546.5 547.9 549.3 550.7 552.2 553.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 242.5 243.7 242.1 242.7 244.7 245.4 246.0 247.2 248.2 248.9 249.7 250.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.2 8.4 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 216 80 80 40 112 261 550 675 732 804 921 1181 Single-Family 139 80 80 40 112 261 534 620 649 668 737 942 Multifamily 77 0 0 0 0 0 16 56 84 136 185 239 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 32 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Quarterly Outlook for Modesto September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.1 Wages and Salaries 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 Nonwage Income 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 Real Personal Income 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.6 42.0 42.3 42.7 43.2 43.6 44.1 44.5 45.0 45.4 45.8 46.2 Real Per Capita Income 32.5 32.6 32.7 32.9 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 53.9 54.4 54.8 55.3 55.9 56.4 57.0 57.5 58.0 58.6 59.2 59.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 173.8 174.1 174.6 175.0 175.5 175.9 176.3 176.8 177.3 177.7 178.2 178.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 152.7 153.1 153.5 153.9 154.3 154.7 155.1 155.5 156.0 156.3 156.7 157.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Construction & Mining 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.7 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.2-0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 Wholesale Trade 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 Retail Trade 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.2 Information 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.8 2.7 5.7 5.3 2.0-0.5-0.8-1.6-1.2-1.5-0.6 0.1 Financial Activities 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.2 0.0 Prof & Business Services 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Educ & Health Services 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.7 32.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-1.5-1.1-1.0-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.1 0.1 Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1-1.4-1.7-1.8-1.7-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.5 14.6 5.5-0.1 State & Local Government 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 555.3 556.9 558.5 560.2 561.9 563.5 565.2 566.9 568.6 570.3 572.2 573.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 251.2 251.8 252.4 253.3 254.1 254.9 255.7 256.6 257.4 258.2 258.9 259.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1437 1654 1864 2034 2123 2162 2181 2203 2256 2274 2299 2306 Single-Family 1146 1324 1498 1644 1729 1763 1786 1802 1850 1863 1878 1875 Multifamily 292 330 367 390 395 398 396 401 406 412 421 431 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 33
METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO Annual Outlook for Modesto September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.4 19.3 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.7 26.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 3.7 4.9 5.7 3.6 5.1 5.9 4.7 4.4 5.0 5.2 5.3 Wages and Salaries 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.0 10.5 Nonwage Income 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 Real Personal Income 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.3 2.6 4.1 2.3 3.9 5.7 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.2 31.1 32.4 34.0 34.9 36.3 38.0 39.3 40.6 42.2 43.8 45.6 Real Per Capita Income 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.4 28.8 29.6 30.9 31.7 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 44.3 44.6 45.4 46.9 47.1 47.9 49.3 50.6 52.5 54.6 56.7 58.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.7 1.8 3.3 0.3 1.9 2.8 2.6 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 151.5 151.0 150.1 153.0 157.1 161.7 166.1 171.5 172.9 174.4 176.1 177.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7-0.3-0.5 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.1 21.4 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7-0.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.8-0.4 1.2-2.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 130.6 130.3 129.5 132.2 136.2 140.5 144.9 150.1 152.0 153.3 154.9 156.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4-0.2-0.6 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 Construction & Mining 6.6 5.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -27.3-10.6-1.7 8.5 11.2 7.7 11.5 5.7 3.6 5.2 3.8 3.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 31.4 31.6 32.2 33.5 34.5 34.9 35.9 37.4 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 0.7 1.8 4.0 3.1 1.1 3.0 4.1 0.7-0.1 0.3 0.2 Wholesale Trade 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Retail Trade 19.5 19.5 19.9 20.8 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 Information 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -30.1-4.5-8.3-13.6-4.9 2.7-0.1-3.2-4.7 2.7-0.2-0.8 Financial Activities 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6-2.6-0.9 0.3 0.0-2.6-2.2 2.3 0.2-0.5-0.2-0.2 Prof & Business Services 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7-5.2-2.0 4.7 4.3 3.0 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 2.2 Educ & Health Services 26.8 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.8 29.8 30.9 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.5 0.0 1.3 2.4 3.5 3.5 2.5 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6-0.6-0.7 3.1 5.8 7.5 5.0 6.0 1.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 Other Services 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -10.2-2.7-4.0 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.1 1.5-0.9-1.3-0.5-0.2 Federal Government 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 12.8-9.0-0.9-6.6-3.8-0.2 0.4 0.1-1.5-1.7 4.9 State & Local Government 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.3 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 1.3-1.8-1.1 0.7 2.6 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 512.1 515.6 518.8 522.6 527.0 532.8 539.2 545.7 551.5 557.7 564.4 571.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 236.1 243.2 242.4 242.4 241.6 242.0 242.7 245.8 249.3 252.2 255.3 258.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 3.0-0.3 0.0-0.3 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 15.5 16.9 16.5 14.9 12.9 11.1 9.5 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.5 9.6 Total Housing Starts 376 270 212 320 311 392 104 400 910 1747 2167 2284 Single-Family 288 169 132 192 279 376 85 382 749 1403 1770 1867 Multifamily 87 101 80 128 32 15 19 18 161 345 397 417 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 34 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
Oakland MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected to increase 2.5% between 2015 and 2016 and 1.8% between 2016 and 2017. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Construction and Mining and Professional & Business Services sectors with 4.0% and 3.9% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Information (-2.1%), Federal Government (-0.5%), and Other Services (-0.4%). These sectors, with the exception of the Information sector, are expected to continue to experience declines or no growth through 2019. Real personal income for 2017 is expected to increase to $148.3 billion, a 2.8% increase from 2016. Real personal income is expected to grow over 3% each year through 2020. The Oakland MSA population is expected grow to 2,847,682 in 2017, a growth of 1.3% between 2016 and 2017; the population is expected to reach approximately 2,956,500 by 2020. Unemployment in Oakland is expected to decrease to 4.4% in 2016, down from 4.9% in 2015. The labor force is expected to growth 1.2% between 2015 and 2016. Housing starts reach 8,962 in 2017 and 11,411 in 2020. 12% Oakland Real Personal Income (Percent change from one year ago) 1200 1175 Oakland Payroll Employment (Thousands) 10% 1150 8% 1125 6% 1100 4% 1075 1050 2% 1025 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 1000 975 950 925 900 Oakland Unemployment Rates (percent) Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 12% 200 180 10% 160 140 8% 120 100 6% 80 60 4% 40 2% 20 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. 0% Center for Business and Policy Research 35
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 168.1 171.5 173.2 175.1 176.6 177.6 179.9 182.2 184.3 186.5 188.7 191.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 7.1 6.3 5.9 5.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 5.0 4.9 4.9 Wages and Salaries 76.3 78.0 78.2 79.1 80.2 80.6 82.0 83.0 84.2 85.3 86.4 87.6 Nonwage Income 91.9 93.5 95.0 96.0 96.5 97.0 98.0 99.3 100.1 101.2 102.3 103.6 Real Personal Income* 137.8 139.8 140.7 142.0 143.2 143.3 144.8 145.8 146.8 147.7 148.8 150.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 6.9 6.0 5.4 3.9 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 61.0 62.0 62.4 62.9 63.2 63.3 63.9 64.5 65.0 65.6 66.2 66.8 Real Per Capita Income* 50.0 50.6 50.7 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.4 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 70.0 71.2 70.7 71.2 71.8 71.8 72.4 73.0 73.7 74.4 75.2 76.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 5.2 3.0 3.1 2.5 0.8 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.6 3.9 4.1 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1083.7 1089.7 1100.5 1104.6 1111.8 1116.9 1126.5 1131.8 1136.9 1140.9 1143.8 1147.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.4 Manufacturing 85.7 86.0 87.1 87.7 87.4 87.9 89.2 89.2 89.1 89.5 90.0 90.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 998.0 1003.7 1013.4 1016.9 1024.4 1028.9 1037.2 1042.6 1047.8 1051.4 1053.8 1057.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.4 Construction & Mining 61.9 62.5 63.2 65.2 66.2 67.4 68.5 69.1 69.6 70.2 70.8 71.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.9 6.1 5.0 7.8 6.8 7.8 8.3 6.0 5.1 4.1 3.3 3.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 196.0 197.5 200.1 201.4 203.4 203.2 204.2 204.8 205.4 205.8 206.0 206.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.2 3.7 2.9 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.6 Wholesale Trade 47.0 47.3 48.0 48.2 48.9 49.3 49.1 49.2 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.8 Retail Trade 111.7 112.3 113.5 114.1 115.6 114.5 115.2 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.6 115.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 37.4 37.9 38.6 39.1 38.9 39.4 39.9 39.9 40.2 40.5 40.7 40.8 Information 22.0 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.1 22.9 23.1 22.6 22.0 22.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.9 6.3 5.5 4.3 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.9-1.7-4.7-3.1 Financial Activities 49.6 49.7 49.8 49.0 49.2 49.7 49.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.1 50.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 1.3 1.2-1.1-0.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 Prof & Business Services 181.8 182.7 183.4 183.6 183.3 182.9 185.3 187.3 189.6 191.3 192.4 194.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.6 3.8 3.6 Educ & Health Services 175.9 177.3 180.3 179.9 183.6 184.3 186.1 187.4 188.3 189.3 189.8 190.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.7 4.2 3.0 4.4 4.0 3.2 4.1 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 104.6 105.7 106.9 107.8 108.4 110.7 112.6 113.1 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.7 5.3 5.0 4.9 3.4 2.3 2.3 Other Services 37.7 37.8 38.2 38.3 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.4 38.2 38.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.3 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6-0.1-0.9-1.2 Federal Government 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.4-0.6-0.8-0.4-0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2-0.3-0.7-1.1 State & Local Government 154.6 154.4 155.1 155.3 155.3 155.6 155.4 155.6 155.7 155.7 155.8 156.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2754.9 2765.0 2775.1 2785.4 2795.8 2806.2 2815.4 2824.6 2833.9 2843.1 2852.3 2861.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Labor Force (Ths.) 1369.5 1375.2 1375.5 1378.7 1379.1 1379.5 1400.9 1407.6 1413.6 1418.7 1423.8 1428.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 1.6 1.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 5739 9305 8144 6911 8362 8205 7523 7790 8215 9172 9222 9240 Single-Family 3516 5237 4403 4245 5328 4292 4195 4337 4821 5186 5184 5224 Multifamily 2223 4067 3741 2666 3034 3912 3328 3453 3394 3987 4038 4015 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 36 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Quarterly Outlook for Oakland September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 193.9 196.3 198.7 201.3 203.9 206.6 209.3 212.2 215.1 217.9 220.7 223.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 Wages and Salaries 88.9 90.0 91.1 92.2 93.4 94.5 95.6 96.7 97.9 99.1 100.4 101.6 Nonwage Income 105.0 106.3 107.6 109.1 110.5 112.1 113.7 115.4 117.2 118.8 120.4 121.8 Real Personal Income* 151.4 152.6 153.6 154.8 156.0 157.3 158.5 159.8 161.2 162.4 163.6 164.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 67.5 68.2 68.8 69.4 70.1 70.8 71.5 72.3 73.1 73.8 74.5 75.2 Real Per Capita Income* 52.8 53.0 53.2 53.4 53.7 53.9 54.2 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.3 55.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 76.8 77.6 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.2 83.0 83.7 84.6 85.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1151.3 1154.9 1157.8 1160.6 1163.6 1166.2 1169.0 1171.8 1174.5 1178.3 1180.6 1183.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 90.2 90.3 90.5 90.7 90.9 91.0 91.1 91.3 91.5 91.6 91.7 91.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 1061.1 1064.7 1067.4 1069.8 1072.7 1075.2 1078.0 1080.5 1083.0 1086.8 1088.9 1091.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 Construction & Mining 72.2 72.9 73.6 74.0 74.4 74.9 75.4 75.8 76.1 76.5 77.0 77.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 205.7 205.7 205.9 206.1 206.3 206.5 206.8 206.9 207.0 207.0 207.1 207.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 Wholesale Trade 50.0 50.2 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.2 51.4 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.2 Retail Trade 114.8 114.4 114.2 114.1 114.0 113.9 113.9 113.8 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 40.9 41.2 41.4 41.5 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.8 41.9 41.9 42.0 42.0 Information 22.9 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 3.9 6.8 5.8 2.5-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.2 0.5 Financial Activities 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.9 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.7 49.8 49.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 196.0 197.4 198.3 198.7 199.8 200.8 202.0 203.1 204.0 205.1 206.4 207.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 Educ & Health Services 190.9 191.5 192.1 192.9 193.7 194.1 194.6 195.3 196.1 196.4 197.1 197.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 115.6 115.7 115.8 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.7 116.8 117.2 117.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 Other Services 38.1 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.1 0.0 Federal Government 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 15.0 13.8 13.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-1.9-2.1-2.2-2.1-2.1-2.1-2.1-0.9 13.6 5.0-0.5 State & Local Government 156.3 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.7 158.1 158.5 158.8 159.1 159.3 159.5 159.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2870.8 2880.1 2889.3 2898.6 2907.7 2916.8 2925.8 2934.8 2943.5 2952.2 2960.8 2969.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 1432.8 1437.0 1441.1 1445.6 1449.8 1454.8 1459.3 1464.0 1468.5 1472.6 1476.6 1479.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 9256 9137 9326 9665 9999 10367 10681 11078 11264 11355 11482 11543 Single-Family 5232 5167 5178 5201 5213 5340 5452 5551 5584 5582 5565 5534 Multifamily 4024 3969 4148 4464 4786 5027 5229 5527 5679 5773 5917 6009 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 37
METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND Annual Outlook for Oakland September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 123.5 126.5 136.7 146.7 151.9 161.5 172.0 179.1 187.7 197.5 208.0 219.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 2.4 8.1 7.3 3.6 6.3 6.5 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 Wages and Salaries 60.3 61.2 63.1 66.9 69.0 72.9 77.9 81.4 85.9 90.6 95.1 99.7 Nonwage Income 63.2 65.3 73.6 79.8 82.9 88.6 94.1 97.7 101.8 107.0 112.9 119.5 Real Personal Income* 109.7 109.7 116.0 122.6 125.4 131.8 140.1 144.3 148.3 153.1 157.9 163.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9 0.0 5.8 5.7 2.3 5.1 6.3 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 48.6 49.2 52.5 55.5 56.6 59.2 62.1 63.7 65.9 68.5 71.2 74.2 Real Per Capita Income* 43.2 42.7 44.5 46.4 46.7 48.3 50.6 51.3 52.1 53.1 54.1 55.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 60.6 62.7 64.1 66.1 66.2 68.2 70.8 72.2 74.8 77.9 81.0 84.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 3.5 2.3 3.1 0.2 3.0 3.8 2.0 3.6 4.2 3.9 3.9 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 989.9 969.6 978.6 1006.6 1036.3 1062.5 1094.6 1121.8 1142.3 1156.2 1167.7 1179.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.8-2.0 0.9 2.9 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 81.5 78.6 79.7 79.9 80.1 82.8 86.6 88.4 89.7 90.4 91.1 91.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.1-3.5 1.5 0.2 0.2 3.4 4.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 Nonmanufacturing 908.4 891.0 898.9 926.7 956.2 979.7 1008.0 1033.3 1052.6 1065.7 1076.6 1087.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3-1.9 0.9 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 Construction & Mining 54.8 48.6 48.6 52.9 57.3 59.4 63.2 67.8 70.5 73.2 75.1 76.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -17.2-11.1 0.1 8.9 8.3 3.7 6.4 7.2 4.0 3.8 2.7 2.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 179.2 173.7 175.7 180.7 186.4 191.7 198.8 203.9 205.8 205.8 206.6 207.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3-3.0 1.1 2.9 3.2 2.8 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.2 Wholesale Trade 43.7 41.9 42.2 43.7 45.2 46.2 47.6 49.1 49.7 50.3 51.1 51.9 Retail Trade 102.2 100.4 101.2 104.1 107.7 109.9 112.9 115.2 115.6 114.3 113.9 113.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 33.2 31.5 32.2 32.9 33.5 35.6 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.2 41.6 41.9 Information 25.3 23.6 22.6 22.1 21.5 21.3 22.4 23.0 22.5 23.3 23.4 23.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.2-6.6-4.3-2.3-2.8-0.9 5.3 2.6-2.1 3.9 0.3-0.4 Financial Activities 48.0 48.2 47.8 48.8 49.7 49.3 49.5 49.7 50.0 49.9 49.8 49.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 0.4-0.9 2.2 1.8-0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7-0.3-0.1-0.2 Prof & Business Services 151.3 152.2 157.6 166.5 173.4 178.8 182.9 184.7 191.8 197.6 201.4 205.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5 0.7 3.5 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.3 1.0 3.9 3.0 1.9 2.2 Educ & Health Services 157.7 158.7 158.9 164.7 170.6 173.1 178.4 185.3 189.4 191.9 194.4 196.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 0.6 0.1 3.6 3.5 1.5 3.0 3.9 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 85.1 85.8 88.2 91.8 97.2 102.1 106.2 111.2 114.8 115.8 116.4 117.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 0.8 2.9 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.1 4.7 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 Other Services 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.8 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2-0.4-0.9-0.4-0.2 Federal Government 16.7 15.7 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4-5.8-7.0-2.6-3.2 0.1 0.1 0.0-0.5-1.9-2.1 4.3 State & Local Government 155.7 149.5 149.3 148.6 149.6 152.8 154.9 155.5 155.8 156.8 158.3 159.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7-4.0-0.1-0.4 0.7 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2539.9 2570.9 2604.5 2642.1 2685.5 2729.3 2770.1 2810.5 2847.7 2884.7 2921.3 2956.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 Labor Force (Ths.) 1309.6 1307.9 1316.3 1336.3 1344.2 1355.6 1374.7 1391.8 1421.1 1439.1 1456.9 1474.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4-0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.1 10.9 10.2 8.8 7.3 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 Total Housing Starts 2829 3159 3081 4463 4610 5292 7525 7970 8962 9346 10531 11411 Single-Family 1902 1918 1619 2730 3077 3390 4350 4538 5104 5194 5389 5566 Multifamily 928 1240 1462 1733 1534 1902 3174 3432 3858 4151 5142 5845 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 38 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
Sacramento MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment in the Sacramento MSA is expected to increase 2.4% between 2015 and 2016 and will grow each year between 1.2-1.9% through 2020. This percent change is lower than the previous few years where growth was between 2% and 3% between 2012 and 2015. The leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are Construction (9.3%), Education & Health Services (3.7%), and Federal Government (2.9%), while a decline of -2.1% is expected in the Information sector. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience declines between 2018 and 2019. Real personal income is forecasted to grow to $93.3 billion in 2016, an increase of 2.8% from the previous year, and progressive growth is expected in each quarter of 2016. Real personal income will grow approximately between 2.9% and 3.5% in the following years through 2020. The population of the Sacramento MSA is expected to be 2,307,936 in 2016, an increase of 1.3% from 2015. The labor force is calculated to also experience a 1.2% increase in 2016 and will grow between 1.4% and 1.5% in the following years through 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to be at approximately 5.4% in 2016 and will stay between 5.6% and 6% in the following years through 2020. 10% Sacramento Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 1000 Sacramento Payroll Employment (Thousands) 8% 950 6% 900 4% 850 2% 800 0% 750-2% -4% 700 Sacramento Unemployment Rate (percent) Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 14% 200 180 12% 160 140 10% 120 100 8% 80 6% 60 40 4% 2% 20 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 39
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 108.8 111.1 112.7 113.3 114.6 114.8 116.3 117.8 119.2 120.7 122.2 123.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.3 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 Wages and Salaries 54.7 56.0 56.7 56.9 57.7 57.8 58.7 59.5 60.3 61.1 61.9 62.8 Nonwage Income 54.1 55.1 56.0 56.4 56.8 57.0 57.6 58.3 58.9 59.6 60.3 61.1 Real Personal Income (09$) 89.2 90.5 91.5 91.9 92.9 92.6 93.6 94.2 94.9 95.6 96.4 97.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.2 3.3 3.0 3.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 48.0 48.9 49.4 49.5 49.9 49.8 50.3 50.8 51.2 51.7 52.1 52.6 Real Per Capita Income (09$) 39.3 39.8 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.2 40.5 40.6 40.8 40.9 41.1 41.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 60.2 61.2 61.1 61.3 61.8 61.6 62.0 62.5 63.1 63.7 64.4 65.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.0 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 905.3 911.0 922.9 925.1 930.8 933.4 942.3 946.7 951.4 955.1 957.7 961.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 Manufacturing 36.1 36.4 36.4 36.3 36.7 36.6 37.0 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.8 37.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.8 1.9 1.1 1.8 0.7 1.6 2.3 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.8 Nonmanufacturing 869.2 874.7 886.5 888.8 894.1 896.8 905.4 909.5 914.1 917.6 919.9 923.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.6 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 Construction & Mining 48.4 49.6 50.8 52.9 53.7 54.8 55.9 55.9 56.1 56.5 57.2 57.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 8.6 10.1 13.3 11.1 10.4 9.9 5.7 4.5 3.2 2.3 3.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 145.2 146.5 147.7 147.6 147.3 147.8 149.7 150.7 151.3 151.7 152.0 152.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.9 Wholesale Trade 24.3 24.5 24.9 24.8 25.0 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 Retail Trade 96.6 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.7 98.4 100.0 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.5 100.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 24.3 24.4 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.4 Information 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.1 1.9 0.3-1.3-2.0-2.3-2.7-1.8-3.2-5.1-3.3 Financial Activities 50.3 50.8 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.5 4.8 4.0 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 Prof & Business Services 118.7 118.9 121.1 120.0 120.9 121.7 123.9 125.8 127.9 129.6 130.3 131.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.4 2.2 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.3 4.8 5.8 6.4 5.2 4.5 Educ & Health Services 137.7 139.3 141.7 142.4 144.5 143.7 146.3 147.3 148.1 148.9 149.4 149.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.1 1.8 Leisure & Hospitality 93.9 94.3 95.4 95.9 96.8 97.0 97.8 98.6 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.2 1.8 Other Services 30.6 30.7 31.1 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.8 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.3 2.7 1.4-0.1-0.6-0.9 Federal Government 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0-0.4 State & Local Government 216.7 216.7 219.7 219.8 220.1 220.5 220.1 219.5 219.8 219.9 220.1 220.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 0.2-0.1-0.2-0.2 0.0 0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2266.9 2274.2 2281.6 2289.1 2296.6 2304.1 2311.7 2319.4 2327.3 2335.4 2343.7 2352.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 1056.6 1061.0 1061.2 1061.6 1059.4 1063.3 1081.7 1087.3 1092.4 1096.7 1101.1 1105.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.1 1.8 1.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4560 6795 7123 7352 6877 7123 7113 7581 8643 9905 10664 11402 Single-Family 3896 6112 6140 6641 5895 6152 6033 6229 7116 7914 8429 8925 Multifamily 663 684 983 711 982 971 1080 1351 1527 1991 2235 2477 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 40 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 125.7 127.3 129.0 130.6 132.5 134.3 136.0 137.8 139.8 141.7 143.4 145.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 Wages and Salaries 63.6 64.5 65.3 66.1 66.9 67.8 68.6 69.4 70.4 71.2 72.1 72.9 Nonwage Income 62.1 62.9 63.7 64.6 65.6 66.5 67.4 68.3 69.5 70.5 71.3 72.1 Real Personal Income (09$) 98.2 99.0 99.7 100.5 101.4 102.2 103.0 103.8 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 53.3 53.7 54.2 54.7 55.3 55.8 56.3 56.9 57.5 58.1 58.6 59.0 Real Per Capita Income (09$) 41.6 41.8 41.9 42.1 42.3 42.5 42.7 42.8 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.5 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 65.7 66.3 67.0 67.6 68.3 68.9 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.4 72.2 72.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 964.4 967.6 970.5 973.2 976.2 979.2 982.4 985.5 988.5 992.9 995.1 997.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Manufacturing 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.3 38.4 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 926.5 929.7 932.5 935.0 937.9 940.9 943.9 946.9 949.9 954.2 956.3 958.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 Construction & Mining 58.6 59.3 60.0 60.5 61.0 61.5 62.0 62.4 62.8 63.2 63.8 64.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 152.0 152.0 152.0 152.2 152.3 152.6 152.9 153.1 153.2 153.3 153.4 153.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 Wholesale Trade 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 Retail Trade 99.9 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.5 99.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 Information 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 3.9 7.5 6.3 3.3 0.5-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.4 0.4 1.0 Financial Activities 52.4 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.5 52.5 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 Prof & Business Services 132.7 133.7 134.3 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.1 140.0 140.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 Educ & Health Services 150.4 151.0 151.6 152.3 153.0 153.5 154.0 154.7 155.4 155.8 156.4 157.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.8 100.9 101.1 101.5 101.8 102.0 102.2 102.6 102.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other Services 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9-0.6-0.4-0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 Federal Government 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 15.8 14.6 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.4-1.4-1.3-0.1 14.5 5.8 0.2 State & Local Government 221.2 221.8 222.4 223.0 223.7 224.5 225.1 225.8 226.5 227.0 227.5 227.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2360.8 2369.6 2378.4 2387.2 2396.1 2405.0 2413.9 2422.9 2431.7 2440.5 2449.4 2458.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Labor Force (Ths.) 1109.9 1114.2 1118.5 1123.2 1127.8 1132.3 1136.5 1140.8 1144.8 1148.7 1152.8 1156.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 12429 13073 13364 13598 13644 13868 14034 14228 14301 14242 14202 13888 Single-Family 9739 10283 10389 10420 10339 10521 10672 10790 10876 10876 10844 10777 Multifamily 2690 2790 2975 3178 3305 3347 3362 3438 3425 3367 3358 3111 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 41
METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO Annual Outlook for Sacramento September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 85.8 87.5 92.6 98.0 100.9 105.2 111.5 115.8 121.5 128.2 135.1 142.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.1 5.8 5.8 3.0 4.2 6.0 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.4 5.4 Wages and Salaries 45.3 44.9 46.3 48.6 50.2 52.6 56.1 58.4 61.5 64.9 68.2 71.7 Nonwage Income 40.5 42.6 46.3 49.4 50.8 52.6 55.4 57.4 60.0 63.3 67.0 70.8 Real Personal Income (09$) 76.2 75.9 78.6 81.9 83.3 85.8 90.8 93.3 96.0 99.3 102.6 105.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-0.3 3.5 4.2 1.8 3.0 5.8 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 40.2 40.6 42.5 44.6 45.4 46.8 48.9 50.2 51.9 54.0 56.1 58.3 Real Per Capita Income (09$) 35.7 35.2 36.1 37.3 37.5 38.2 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 52.8 53.7 55.5 57.1 57.4 58.8 60.9 62.0 64.0 66.7 69.2 71.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.9 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.7 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 853.6 831.2 829.0 846.7 869.2 889.5 916.1 938.3 956.3 969.0 980.8 993.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.4-2.6-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 Manufacturing 34.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.1 35.4 36.3 36.9 37.6 38.0 38.4 38.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.1-4.7 1.3 2.0 0.7 3.6 2.6 1.6 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 819.1 798.4 795.8 812.8 835.0 854.1 879.8 901.5 918.7 930.9 942.4 954.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2-2.5-0.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 Construction & Mining 44.1 38.8 37.4 38.8 43.7 45.9 50.4 55.1 56.9 59.6 61.7 63.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.6-11.6-3.6 3.8 12.6 5.1 9.8 9.3 3.4 4.7 3.6 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 134.9 132.6 134.2 138.9 141.7 143.3 146.7 148.9 151.8 152.1 152.7 153.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0-1.7 1.2 3.6 2.0 1.2 2.4 1.5 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 Wholesale Trade 24.1 22.8 23.7 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 Retail Trade 87.6 88.0 89.4 91.8 93.8 95.3 97.5 99.1 100.5 99.6 99.5 99.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.2 21.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.6 24.6 24.8 25.9 26.8 27.1 27.3 Information 18.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 14.8 13.9 14.2 13.9 13.4 14.0 14.1 14.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9-6.0-5.0-4.6-5.2-6.0 2.2-2.1-3.3 4.2 0.8 0.1 Financial Activities 52.9 48.3 46.7 48.2 49.4 48.9 50.9 52.0 52.5 52.4 52.5 52.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.5-8.6-3.4 3.2 2.6-1.0 4.2 2.2 0.8-0.1 0.2 0.1 Prof & Business Services 101.2 102.3 104.4 111.1 114.6 118.2 119.6 123.1 129.8 133.8 136.5 139.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1 1.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 3.1 1.2 2.9 5.5 3.1 2.0 2.3 Educ & Health Services 121.7 120.7 122.5 125.6 130.7 134.3 140.3 145.4 149.0 151.3 153.8 156.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5-0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 2.8 4.5 3.7 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 81.9 80.2 81.7 84.5 88.7 91.8 94.9 97.5 99.7 100.5 101.3 102.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6-2.0 1.9 3.4 5.0 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 Other Services 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.6 29.0 30.2 30.7 31.4 31.4 31.2 31.2 31.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6-2.4-0.5 1.9 1.6 4.1 1.8 2.0 0.0-0.5 0.0 0.3 Federal Government 13.3 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.2 10.6-4.1-1.9-1.9 0.5 1.4 2.9 0.4-1.2-1.4 5.1 State & Local Government 222.0 215.6 210.6 207.7 209.1 214.2 218.2 220.1 220.1 222.1 224.8 227.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-2.9-2.3-1.4 0.6 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) 2135.3 2157.0 2177.9 2198.3 2221.3 2248.7 2277.9 2307.9 2339.6 2374.0 2409.5 2445.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Labor Force (Ths) 1051.4 1049.6 1045.1 1049.9 1048.9 1050.8 1060.1 1072.9 1098.9 1116.4 1134.3 1150.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6-0.2-0.4 0.5-0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.9 12.3 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.1 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 Total Housing Starts 2925 2563 2814 3424 4140 4370 6458 7173 10153 13116 13943 14158 Single-Family 2721 2247 2071 2944 3559 4005 5697 6077 8096 10208 10580 10843 Multifamily 204 316 744 480 581 365 760 1096 2057 2908 3363 3315 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 42 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
San Francisco MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Nonfarm employment is expected to grow by 3.4% between 2015 and 2016 and 2.3% between 2016 and 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, job growth in nonfarm employment is expected to be 2.7%. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2017 are the Professional & Business Services (5.0%); Construction and Mining (4.0%); and Education & Health Services (2.6%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-0.8%) and Other Services (-0.3%) sectors. No growth is expected for the Manufacturing sector in 2017. Real personal income is expected to grow 4.0% between 2015 and 2016 and 4.1% between 2016 and 2017, reaching $156.1 billion in 2020. Per capita income is expected to increase each year and will reach an estimated $122,600 in 2020. The San Francisco MSA population is expected to reach approximately 1,669,600 in 2017, an increase of 1.1% from the previous year. The labor force is expected to grow 1.9% between 2015 and 2016 as well as 2.2% between 2016 and 2017; the labor force is expected to have declining rates reaching 0.7% in 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly decline to 3.1% in 2017 from 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to stay between 3% and 3.1% through 2020. 20% San Francisco Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 1250 San Francisco Payroll Employment (Thousands) 1200 15% 1150 10% 1100 1050 5% 1000 0% 950-5% 900-10% -15% 850 800 13% San Francisco Unemployment Rates (percent) 200 180 San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 11% 160 140 9% 120 100 7% 80 60 5% 40 3% 1% 20 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 43
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 152.8 157.1 159.3 161.3 163.4 163.7 166.7 169.2 172.0 174.5 176.9 179.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 9.1 8.6 8.8 7.0 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.2 6.7 6.1 6.4 Wages and Salaries 110.1 113.4 114.7 116.5 118.4 119.0 121.4 123.8 126.0 127.8 129.5 131.7 Nonwage Income 42.7 43.7 44.6 44.9 45.0 44.6 45.3 45.4 46.0 46.8 47.4 48.3 Real Personal Income (2009$) 125.2 128.0 129.4 130.9 132.5 132.1 134.2 135.3 137.0 138.3 139.5 141.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 9.0 8.3 8.2 5.8 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 94.0 96.4 97.5 98.4 99.4 99.2 100.8 102.0 103.4 104.7 105.8 107.4 Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 77.0 78.5 79.1 79.8 80.6 80.1 81.1 81.6 82.4 82.9 83.4 84.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 106.5 108.4 107.9 108.9 109.8 110.0 111.1 112.5 113.7 114.9 116.1 117.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 6.3 4.1 4.6 3.1 1.5 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1031.1 1043.1 1060.5 1066.1 1075.7 1079.4 1089.7 1096.9 1104.5 1108.8 1112.0 1117.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.5 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.1 1.9 Manufacturing 36.0 35.7 35.9 35.3 35.5 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 0.5 0.6-1.9-1.2-0.3-0.8 0.4-0.4-0.2 0.1 0.3 Nonmanufacturing 995.1 1007.5 1024.6 1030.8 1040.2 1043.9 1054.1 1061.4 1069.1 1073.3 1076.4 1082.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.6 5.3 4.8 4.5 3.6 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 Construction & Mining 39.3 40.8 42.9 43.4 44.3 45.2 46.5 46.7 46.9 47.3 47.6 48.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 12.5 13.0 18.6 15.8 12.7 10.7 8.4 7.5 5.9 4.7 2.5 2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 147.1 148.4 149.9 151.0 151.7 150.7 151.5 152.4 153.3 153.9 154.2 154.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.3 Wholesale Trade 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 Retail Trade 80.5 81.0 81.7 82.6 83.4 82.4 82.9 83.4 83.7 83.8 83.8 83.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 39.9 40.3 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.3 41.7 42.0 42.4 42.8 43.0 43.2 Information 57.9 59.3 60.5 61.1 61.0 60.9 61.4 62.2 62.7 61.6 60.3 61.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.2 10.1 9.4 7.7 5.4 2.7 1.4 1.8 2.7 1.2-1.7-1.9 Financial Activities 72.4 73.1 74.2 74.1 74.2 73.8 74.6 75.1 75.3 75.5 75.7 75.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.5 4.7 3.7 2.4 1.0 0.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.5 1.1 Prof & Business Services 252.8 258.1 264.7 267.9 271.7 273.0 276.8 280.0 284.6 287.8 290.3 293.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 6.7 7.8 7.3 7.5 5.8 4.6 4.5 4.7 5.4 4.9 4.8 Educ & Health Services 128.2 129.0 130.3 131.8 133.7 134.6 136.6 137.6 138.3 139.0 139.3 139.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.4 3.5 3.3 2.0 1.5 Leisure & Hospitality 134.3 135.0 136.7 136.5 137.8 138.7 138.6 139.3 140.0 140.8 141.7 142.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 3.6 3.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 Other Services 40.1 40.1 40.2 40.0 39.6 40.4 40.0 40.1 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 1.6 0.6-0.2-1.3 0.8-0.4 0.3 1.2-1.1-0.4-0.9 Federal Government 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6-0.1-0.5-1.0-1.4 State & Local Government 105.3 106.0 107.5 107.3 108.4 109.0 110.4 110.4 110.2 110.0 109.9 109.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.2 3.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 1.7 1.0-0.5-0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1625.2 1630.0 1634.8 1639.6 1644.5 1649.4 1654.2 1658.8 1663.3 1667.6 1671.8 1675.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Labor Force (Ths.) 980.3 987.5 992.9 999.0 1000.6 999.4 1014.5 1019.8 1024.8 1028.9 1033.0 1036.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.0 1.8 1.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3832 4499 4510 4389 4559 5867 5902 5466 5077 5220 4897 4669 Single-Family 483 528 693 903 359 554 390 407 512 519 459 421 Multifamily 3349 3971 3817 3486 4199 5313 5512 5059 4565 4701 4437 4248 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 44 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 183.4 186.5 189.1 192.0 194.8 197.6 200.2 202.8 205.8 208.7 211.4 214.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Wages and Salaries 134.0 136.3 138.2 140.1 141.9 143.8 145.6 147.4 149.3 151.3 153.3 155.3 Nonwage Income 49.4 50.1 50.9 51.9 52.9 53.8 54.6 55.4 56.5 57.4 58.1 58.9 Real Personal Income (2009$) 143.3 144.9 146.2 147.7 149.1 150.4 151.6 152.8 154.2 155.6 156.8 157.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 109.2 110.7 112.1 113.5 114.9 116.3 117.6 118.9 120.4 121.9 123.3 124.7 Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 85.3 86.1 86.6 87.3 87.9 88.5 89.1 89.6 90.3 90.9 91.4 91.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 119.0 120.4 121.7 122.9 124.2 125.5 126.8 128.0 129.4 130.7 132.2 133.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1123.4 1129.2 1132.9 1136.3 1139.2 1142.7 1145.7 1148.4 1151.0 1155.0 1156.8 1158.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 Manufacturing 35.6 35.5 35.5 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.1-0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1 Nonmanufacturing 1087.9 1093.7 1097.3 1100.8 1103.7 1107.1 1110.2 1112.9 1115.5 1119.6 1121.3 1123.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Construction & Mining 48.5 49.0 49.4 49.7 50.0 50.3 50.5 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.4 51.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 154.4 154.6 154.9 155.2 155.4 155.7 155.9 156.0 156.1 156.0 156.1 156.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 Wholesale Trade 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 Retail Trade 83.5 83.3 83.2 83.2 83.2 83.3 83.3 83.2 83.1 83.0 82.8 82.8 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 43.4 43.6 43.9 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.5 44.6 Information 62.8 64.3 64.3 64.5 64.4 64.3 64.1 64.0 63.9 63.8 63.9 64.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 4.4 6.5 5.7 2.6 0.0-0.2-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.3 0.2 Financial Activities 75.9 75.9 76.0 76.1 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.1 76.1 76.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0-0.2-0.1 0.0 Prof & Business Services 297.0 300.2 302.5 304.3 306.1 308.6 310.7 312.6 314.2 315.8 317.8 319.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 Educ & Health Services 140.1 140.3 140.7 141.2 141.7 141.9 142.1 142.4 142.9 142.9 143.2 143.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 142.3 142.5 142.8 143.1 143.3 143.6 144.1 144.5 144.7 145.0 145.4 145.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Other Services 39.7 39.7 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 Federal Government 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.7 19.1 17.5 16.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-2.2-2.4-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.4-1.2 13.3 4.8-0.8 State & Local Government 109.9 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.4 110.4 110.5 110.5 110.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3-0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1680.0 1684.0 1687.9 1691.7 1695.4 1699.0 1702.4 1705.7 1708.9 1711.9 1715.0 1717.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Labor Force (Ths.) 1039.9 1043.2 1046.1 1049.2 1052.1 1054.8 1057.0 1059.1 1060.9 1062.6 1064.2 1065.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4539 4380 4383 4430 4398 4329 4227 4211 4148 4149 4183 4138 Single-Family 416 413 424 441 434 445 450 456 456 459 456 453 Multifamily 4123 3968 3959 3989 3964 3884 3777 3755 3692 3690 3727 3684 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 45
METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO Annual Outlook for San Francisco September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 105.7 108.9 119.2 134.1 137.1 145.2 157.6 165.8 175.9 187.8 198.9 210.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 3.0 9.5 12.5 2.3 5.9 8.5 5.2 6.1 6.8 5.9 5.6 Wages and Salaries 69.3 69.7 75.0 90.3 95.6 103.5 113.7 120.7 128.7 137.2 144.7 152.3 Nonwage Income 36.4 39.2 44.2 43.8 41.6 41.8 44.0 45.1 47.1 50.6 54.2 57.7 Real Personal Income (2009$) 93.9 94.4 101.2 112.1 113.2 118.6 128.4 133.5 139.0 145.5 151.0 156.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.0 0.6 7.2 10.8 1.0 4.7 8.3 4.0 4.1 4.7 3.8 3.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 69.7 71.2 77.0 85.3 86.1 90.0 96.6 100.3 105.3 111.4 116.9 122.6 Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 61.9 61.8 65.3 71.3 71.1 73.5 78.6 80.8 83.2 86.3 88.8 91.1 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 79.6 80.8 84.6 97.3 99.1 102.8 107.9 110.9 115.6 121.0 126.1 131.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.4 4.8 15.0 1.9 3.7 5.0 2.7 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.2 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 867.7 859.9 882.9 924.8 960.9 1003.5 1050.2 1085.4 1110.7 1130.5 1144.0 1155.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.7-0.9 2.7 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.0 Manufacturing 36.1 35.0 34.4 34.0 34.7 35.6 35.7 35.5 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9-3.0-1.6-1.2 2.1 2.5 0.4-0.5 0.0 0.1-0.1-0.1 Nonmanufacturing 831.6 824.9 848.5 890.8 926.2 967.9 1014.5 1049.9 1075.2 1094.9 1108.5 1119.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5-0.8 2.9 5.0 4.0 4.5 4.8 3.5 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.0 Construction & Mining 30.1 27.7 28.4 30.3 32.7 36.2 41.6 45.7 47.5 49.2 50.4 51.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -20.8-7.6 2.6 6.7 7.7 10.8 15.0 9.8 4.0 3.6 2.5 1.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 133.4 130.1 130.9 135.5 140.9 145.0 149.1 151.6 153.9 154.8 155.7 156.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2-2.5 0.6 3.6 4.0 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 Wholesale Trade 22.2 21.6 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.6 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.7 Retail Trade 74.5 73.3 73.7 75.6 77.5 79.6 81.4 83.0 83.7 83.3 83.3 82.9 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 36.7 35.3 34.9 36.4 38.7 39.7 40.6 41.6 42.9 43.7 44.2 44.5 Information 37.6 36.9 40.6 46.3 49.6 54.6 59.7 61.4 61.4 64.0 64.2 63.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5-1.8 10.0 14.2 7.0 10.2 9.4 2.8 0.1 4.2 0.4-0.4 Financial Activities 69.3 67.0 66.4 67.7 69.6 70.8 73.5 74.4 75.6 76.0 76.2 76.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.0-3.3-0.9 2.1 2.7 1.9 3.7 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.3-0.1 Prof & Business Services 182.3 182.0 195.8 214.2 228.0 243.9 260.9 275.4 289.0 301.0 309.5 316.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1-0.1 7.6 9.4 6.5 7.0 6.9 5.6 5.0 4.1 2.8 2.4 Educ & Health Services 115.2 116.5 116.9 120.0 123.4 126.0 129.8 135.6 139.1 140.6 142.0 143.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.1 0.3 2.7 2.8 2.1 3.0 4.4 2.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 109.8 110.5 115.0 121.5 125.7 131.1 135.6 138.6 141.2 142.7 143.8 145.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 0.7 4.1 5.6 3.5 4.3 3.5 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 Other Services 33.2 32.8 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.6 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5-1.3 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.3 1.2-0.2-0.3-0.7-0.2-0.3 Federal Government 17.9 19.3 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.2 16.8 17.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 7.6-5.0-2.2-2.0-0.2 0.8 0.4-0.8-2.2-2.4 4.0 State & Local Government 102.7 102.0 102.1 101.5 101.3 103.2 106.5 109.5 110.0 110.0 110.3 110.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-0.7 0.1-0.5-0.2 1.9 3.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1516.3 1528.9 1549.0 1572.5 1593.3 1613.2 1632.4 1651.7 1669.6 1685.9 1700.6 1713.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Labor Force (Ths.) 877.4 879.0 894.3 922.9 937.6 961.2 989.9 1008.6 1030.8 1044.6 1055.8 1063.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.6 2.5 3.0 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8.7 7.8 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 Total Housing Starts 681 795 2583 3496 4685 3913 4307 5448 4965 4433 4291 4154 Single-Family 280 251 298 352 422 456 651 427 478 423 446 456 Multifamily 401 544 2284 3144 4263 3457 3656 5021 4488 4010 3845 3699 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 46 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
San Jose MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.7% between 2015 and 2016 and grow 2.3% between 2016 and 2017. The leading sectors for employment growth in the third quarter of 2016 are Construction & Mining, Professional & Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality all at 7% growth. Between 2016 and 2017, declines are expected in the Federal Government (-0.2%) and Other Services (-0.1%) sectors. Real personal income is expected to grow to $130.8 billion, an increase of 3.2% in 2016 and is expected to grow 4.6% between 2016 and 2017. By 2020, real personal income is expected to reach $152.2 billion. The San Jose MSA population is expected to reach approximately 2,002,735 in 2016, an increase of 1.2% from the previous year. The population will continue to grow approximately 1.2% each year, reaching 2,098,900 in 2020. The labor force will grow by 2.2% in 2016 and then 3.7% in 2017. The unemployment rate is forecasted to decrease to 3.9% in 2016 and will be at approximately 3.3 to 3.4% between 2018 and 2020. 35% San Jose Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 1200 San Jose Payroll Employment (Thousands) 30% 1150 25% 1100 20% 1050 15% 1000 10% 5% 950 0% -5% 900 850-10% -15% 800 San Jose Unemployment Rates (percent) San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 13% 250 11% 200 9% 150 7% 100 5% 50 3% 1% 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 47
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 150.4 155.1 156.4 159.6 161.3 164.0 168.6 171.2 173.9 176.2 178.4 181.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 8.4 7.4 8.9 7.2 5.7 7.8 7.3 7.8 7.4 5.8 6.0 Wages and Salaries 115.9 119.8 120.4 123.4 124.9 127.7 131.8 134.0 136.3 138.1 139.8 142.3 Nonwage Income 34.5 35.3 36.0 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.9 37.2 37.6 38.1 38.6 39.2 Real Personal Income 123.2 126.4 127.0 129.5 130.7 132.3 135.7 136.9 138.5 139.6 140.7 142.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.9 8.2 7.1 8.4 6.1 4.7 6.8 5.8 6.0 5.5 3.7 4.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 76.3 78.5 78.9 80.3 80.9 82.0 84.1 85.1 86.2 87.1 88.0 89.2 Real Per Capita Income 62.5 64.0 64.1 65.1 65.6 66.2 67.6 68.1 68.7 69.0 69.4 70.0 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 112.6 115.4 114.0 116.1 117.0 118.3 120.6 121.9 123.3 124.6 125.9 127.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 6.6 3.5 5.1 3.9 2.5 5.7 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.5 4.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1025.7 1034.8 1052.2 1059.3 1063.8 1075.9 1089.5 1095.7 1101.7 1104.7 1106.8 1111.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 2.7 1.6 1.5 Manufacturing 160.3 161.0 162.0 163.1 162.4 161.7 161.6 161.5 161.4 162.2 163.0 163.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.4-0.2-1.0-0.6 0.3 0.9 1.0 Nonmanufacturing 865.3 873.8 890.2 896.2 901.4 914.3 927.8 934.2 940.3 942.5 943.7 948.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.3 3.1 1.7 1.6 Construction & Mining 42.0 43.2 43.9 44.7 45.7 46.9 47.0 47.3 47.6 48.1 48.5 49.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.4 10.7 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.6 7.0 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.2 3.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 138.9 138.7 139.7 139.9 141.1 140.4 140.4 140.9 141.2 141.4 141.5 141.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 Wholesale Trade 36.2 36.3 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.4 36.5 Retail Trade 87.5 87.2 87.8 87.6 88.2 87.6 87.7 88.2 88.3 88.3 88.3 88.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.9 Information 72.1 74.0 76.3 77.0 78.3 79.5 80.6 81.9 82.8 80.9 79.0 80.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 13.9 12.9 10.2 8.6 7.4 5.6 6.4 5.7 1.8-2.0-2.1 Financial Activities 35.1 35.1 35.6 35.5 34.9 35.3 35.4 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 35.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 2.7 2.3-0.5 0.5-0.7 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 Prof & Business Services 210.4 214.1 218.4 221.1 223.1 229.9 233.7 236.5 240.0 242.5 244.4 247.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 6.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.6 5.4 4.6 4.5 Educ & Health Services 153.3 154.9 158.7 160.2 160.3 162.2 166.3 167.4 168.2 169.1 169.5 170.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.6 5.3 5.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.2 1.9 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 94.4 94.8 96.0 97.8 98.1 99.3 102.7 102.9 103.1 103.5 103.8 104.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 3.9 3.4 4.7 3.9 4.8 7.0 5.2 5.2 4.1 1.1 1.1 Other Services 26.7 26.7 27.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.1 2.8 4.6 3.5 3.3 2.5 0.5 1.0 0.7-0.9-1.1 Federal Government 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.6 0.1-0.3-0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0-0.4-0.9 State & Local Government 82.5 82.4 84.4 82.3 82.4 83.2 83.9 84.0 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-1.4 1.2-1.4-0.2 0.9-0.6 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1971.2 1976.8 1982.5 1988.2 1994.0 1999.8 2005.8 2011.3 2017.0 2022.7 2028.5 2034.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1039.2 1047.0 1050.5 1055.9 1057.9 1063.9 1080.2 1083.6 1086.2 1088.4 1090.5 1092.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 9888 4473 7853 4637 6256 4083 4584 4828 5023 5118 5336 6136 Single-Family 2418 2115 1905 2042 2041 2469 2801 2934 2978 3077 2961 2954 Multifamily 7469 2358 5948 2595 4215 1614 1783 1895 2045 2041 2375 3182 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 48 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Quarterly Outlook for San Jose September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 185.0 187.9 190.4 193.0 195.8 198.4 200.9 203.3 206.2 209.0 211.9 214.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.7 Wages and Salaries 145.1 147.5 149.5 151.5 153.6 155.6 157.6 159.6 161.8 163.8 166.2 168.5 Nonwage Income 39.9 40.4 40.9 41.6 42.2 42.8 43.2 43.7 44.5 45.2 45.7 46.3 Real Personal Income 144.5 146.0 147.2 148.5 149.9 151.0 152.1 153.2 154.6 155.8 157.1 158.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 90.7 91.8 92.7 93.8 94.8 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.7 99.7 100.9 102.0 Real Per Capita Income 70.8 71.4 71.7 72.1 72.6 72.9 73.2 73.5 74.0 74.3 74.8 75.2 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 129.4 131.0 132.4 133.9 135.4 136.9 138.3 139.8 141.3 142.7 144.5 146.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 1117.8 1122.9 1125.5 1128.4 1131.1 1133.5 1136.0 1138.7 1141.3 1144.4 1147.2 1150.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 163.4 163.5 163.9 164.3 164.6 164.7 164.8 165.1 165.5 165.6 165.9 166.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Nonmanufacturing 954.5 959.4 961.6 964.1 966.5 968.8 971.2 973.6 975.8 978.8 981.3 984.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 Construction & Mining 49.5 50.0 50.4 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.6 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.8 53.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 141.3 141.3 141.4 141.6 141.9 142.1 142.3 142.4 142.5 142.4 142.5 142.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0-0.1-0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Wholesale Trade 36.6 36.7 36.9 37.1 37.2 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.2 Retail Trade 87.8 87.6 87.5 87.5 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.5 87.4 87.3 87.2 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 Information 82.8 84.9 85.0 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.3 85.8 86.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 5.0 7.6 6.6 3.3 0.7 0.5-0.1-0.1-0.2 0.4 1.1 Financial Activities 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1 Prof & Business Services 249.4 251.2 252.2 252.8 254.0 255.2 256.6 258.0 259.1 260.3 261.8 263.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 Educ & Health Services 170.5 171.0 171.6 172.3 172.9 173.3 173.8 174.4 175.0 175.3 175.9 176.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.5 104.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 Other Services 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1-0.9-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1 0.0 0.1 Federal Government 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.9 10.0 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2-1.6-1.8-1.9-1.9-1.9-1.9-1.9-0.6 13.9 5.3-0.3 State & Local Government 84.2 84.3 84.4 84.6 84.7 84.9 85.0 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.3 85.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 2040.5 2046.8 2052.9 2059.0 2065.2 2071.2 2077.3 2083.4 2089.3 2095.1 2100.9 2106.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1094.9 1097.4 1099.9 1102.8 1105.5 1108.4 1110.8 1113.2 1115.2 1117.3 1119.4 1121.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 6528 6486 6465 6516 6654 6781 6841 6961 7046 7139 7224 7293 Single-Family 2976 2954 2961 2963 2949 2951 2932 2903 2921 2950 2952 2955 Multifamily 3551 3532 3504 3553 3705 3829 3909 4058 4126 4190 4272 4338 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 49
METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE Annual Outlook for San Jose September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 100.1 108.3 119.1 134.1 135.9 144.3 155.4 166.3 177.5 189.1 199.6 210.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 8.2 10.0 12.6 1.4 6.2 7.7 7.0 6.8 6.5 5.6 5.5 Wages and Salaries 72.9 80.5 87.9 93.0 99.3 109.7 119.9 129.6 139.1 148.4 156.6 165.1 Nonwage Income 27.2 27.8 31.2 41.1 36.7 34.6 35.5 36.7 38.4 40.7 43.0 45.4 Real Personal Income 88.9 94.0 101.1 112.1 112.3 117.8 126.5 133.9 140.3 146.6 151.6 156.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 5.7 7.7 10.9 0.1 4.9 7.4 5.8 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.2 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 54.9 58.7 63.6 70.5 70.4 73.7 78.5 83.0 87.6 92.2 96.2 100.3 Real Per Capita Income 48.8 50.9 54.0 58.9 58.1 60.2 63.9 66.9 69.3 71.5 73.1 74.6 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 83.4 92.3 98.5 100.3 103.0 109.2 114.6 119.5 125.3 131.7 137.6 143.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 10.7 6.8 1.9 2.7 6.1 4.9 4.3 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.4 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 871.3 869.0 889.8 923.9 960.7 1001.6 1043.0 1081.2 1106.3 1123.7 1134.8 1145.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.1-0.2 2.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.0 Manufacturing 153.9 151.5 155.3 155.9 155.7 158.7 161.6 161.8 162.4 163.8 164.8 165.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.7-1.5 2.5 0.4-0.1 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 Nonmanufacturing 717.4 717.5 734.5 768.0 804.9 843.0 881.4 919.4 943.8 959.9 970.0 980.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.7 0.0 2.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.3 2.7 1.7 1.1 1.0 Construction & Mining 34.7 32.4 31.8 34.8 37.5 39.6 43.4 46.7 48.3 50.2 51.5 52.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -22.1-6.2-1.8 9.5 7.6 5.8 9.6 7.6 3.3 3.9 2.6 2.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 126.5 125.8 127.9 132.0 135.3 137.7 139.3 140.7 141.4 141.4 142.1 142.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.1-0.5 1.6 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 Wholesale Trade 35.7 35.0 34.0 35.0 36.3 36.5 36.4 36.3 36.4 36.8 37.4 38.0 Retail Trade 78.8 78.9 81.8 84.1 84.8 86.4 87.5 87.9 88.3 87.6 87.6 87.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.9 14.2 14.9 15.4 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 Information 43.9 46.5 51.3 54.2 58.7 66.3 74.8 80.1 80.7 84.5 85.5 85.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 6.0 10.4 5.7 8.3 12.9 12.9 7.0 0.8 4.8 1.1 0.3 Financial Activities 31.5 31.1 32.4 33.3 33.9 34.7 35.3 35.3 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -8.0-1.4 4.2 2.9 1.7 2.3 2.0-0.1 0.6-0.3-0.1-0.2 Prof & Business Services 160.6 160.9 166.7 178.1 191.1 202.9 216.0 230.8 243.4 251.4 255.9 261.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.9 0.3 3.6 6.8 7.3 6.2 6.4 6.8 5.5 3.3 1.8 2.0 Educ & Health Services 124.5 127.1 129.7 136.8 143.8 150.0 156.8 164.0 169.2 171.3 173.6 175.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.1 2.1 5.5 5.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 3.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 Leisure & Hospitality 74.9 74.9 77.4 82.5 87.5 91.9 95.7 100.7 103.6 104.0 104.1 104.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 0.1 3.3 6.6 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.2 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 Other Services 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.4 27.1 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5-0.7 1.2 0.6 2.8 3.9 2.7 2.4-0.1-0.8-0.2 0.0 Federal Government 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 10.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5-0.6-5.4-2.8 0.8-0.1 0.1 0.3-0.2-1.7-1.9 4.6 State & Local Government 85.6 83.7 82.5 81.6 81.8 83.5 82.9 83.3 84.0 84.4 85.0 85.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-2.3-1.4-1.1 0.3 2.1-0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1822.4 1846.3 1873.9 1902.2 1931.6 1957.0 1979.7 2002.7 2025.7 2049.8 2074.3 2098.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 948.4 954.3 968.1 988.6 1003.3 1025.1 1048.1 1071.4 1089.3 1098.8 1109.5 1118.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.7 10.5 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 Total Housing Starts 1359 2317 3153 4982 6257 8105 6713 4938 5403 6499 6809 7176 Single-Family 706 886 1077 1525 1875 2006 2120 2561 2992 2964 2934 2944 Multifamily 652 1431 2076 3456 4382 6099 4593 2377 2411 3535 3875 4231 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 50 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
Stockton MSA SHORT TERM OUTLOOK Total nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.7% between 2015 and 2016 and 3.2% between 2016 and 2017. The expected leading sectors for employment growth in 2016 are the Leisure & Hospitality (5.7%); Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (4.6%); and Information (4.0%) sectors. Meanwhile, declines are expected in the Financial Activities (-1.1%) and Federal Government (-0.8%) sectors; declines are expected in these sectors through 2019. Real personal income is expected to increase 3.2% between 2015 and 2016 and will continue to grow approximately 3% to 3.2% each year through 2020. Per capita income, expected to be $40,200 in 2017, will increase each year through 2020, reaching $44,900 in 2020. The population in the Stockton MSA will increase 1.5% in 2016 to approximately 738,700 and will increase each year reaching 783,100 in 2020. Growth each year in the labor force will be greater than the previous few years, with an expected growth rate of 1.3% between 2015 and 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 8.9% in 2015 to 8.2% in 2016 and will remain at approximately 7.9% to 8.2% through 2020. Housing starts are also expected to grow each year between 2016 and 2020. 10% Stockton Real Personal Income (percent change from one year ago) 250 Stockton Payroll Employment (Thousands) 240 8% 230 6% 220 210 4% 200 2% 190 180 0% 170-2% -4% 160 150 Stockton Unemployment Rates (percent) Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2015 (California = 100) 18% 200 180 16% 160 14% 140 120 12% 100 10% 80 60 8% 40 6% 4% 20 0 Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov. Center for Business and Policy Research 51
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Fresno September 2016 Forecast 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 35.8 36.6 37.0 37.4 37.7 38.0 38.4 38.9 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.6 6.2 6.3 5.4 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 Wages and Salaries 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 Nonwage Income 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.5 Real Personal Income 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.9 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.8 37.5 37.9 38.2 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.2 39.6 39.9 40.3 40.6 Real Per Capita Income 30.2 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 49.3 50.2 50.0 50.2 50.7 50.7 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.2 52.6 53.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.6 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 319.9 322.3 325.8 329.9 328.9 334.1 335.2 337.3 339.1 340.3 341.3 342.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.3 3.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 Manufacturing 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.6 6.6 6.5 5.4 3.1 2.6-0.5-2.1-3.0-2.6-0.6 0.4 Nonmanufacturing 294.8 297.0 300.2 304.0 303.0 308.2 309.7 312.0 313.9 315.0 315.9 317.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 3.6 2.2 2.0 1.6 Construction & Mining 14.9 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.0 10.1 7.8 3.7 1.9 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.5 8.5 6.9 5.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.5 62.6 63.6 65.0 65.5 66.0 65.3 65.5 65.7 65.9 66.0 66.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2-0.2 1.0 0.7 Wholesale Trade 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 Retail Trade 37.0 37.0 37.7 38.3 38.5 38.8 38.5 38.7 38.7 38.8 38.8 38.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 Information 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.4 1.0-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.5-2.0-0.1-2.8-4.2-3.1 Financial Activities 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 2.0 3.5 1.9 3.2 4.5 3.5 3.6 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 Prof & Business Services 31.8 31.7 31.0 31.2 31.0 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.2 33.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 4.4-1.5-2.0-2.4-0.8 2.5 3.3 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 Educ & Health Services 58.8 59.6 61.1 62.1 61.7 62.4 63.4 64.2 64.6 65.0 65.2 65.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.7 5.0 4.8 3.7 3.4 4.7 4.1 2.8 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 30.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.6-2.3 1.3 2.1 2.8 8.0 4.3 3.4 2.7 Other Services 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.7-0.5-0.9-1.2 Federal Government 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9-3.2-1.5-1.8 0.3 3.9-0.3 0.4-0.3-2.9-0.3-0.8 State & Local Government 58.0 58.6 59.3 60.7 61.0 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.5 4.3 5.7 5.1 5.8 5.2 3.0 2.8 1.1 0.6 0.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 972.4 974.9 977.4 979.9 982.4 985.0 987.6 990.4 993.3 996.4 999.6 1002.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 Labor Force (Ths.) 443.6 444.1 442.8 446.0 444.9 447.9 451.6 453.7 456.0 457.6 459.4 461.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6 Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2713 2824 2340 2027 2378 2529 2319 2612 2947 3270 3326 3418 Single-Family 2518 2481 2241 1926 2065 2384 2177 2399 2680 2902 2884 2884 Multifamily 196 343 99 101 313 145 142 213 267 368 441 534 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 52 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Quarterly Outlook for Stockton September 2016 Forecast 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $) Total Personal Income 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.5 34.9 35.3 35.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 Wages and Salaries 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 Nonwage Income 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 Real Personal Income* 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.2 41.5 41.8 42.2 42.6 43.0 43.4 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1 45.4 Real Per Capita Income* 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.2 33.3 33.4 33.4 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 52.3 52.7 53.2 53.7 54.2 54.7 55.2 55.6 56.2 56.6 57.2 57.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 236.8 237.6 238.3 239.0 239.6 240.3 241.0 241.7 242.4 243.3 243.8 244.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 Manufacturing 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 Nonmanufacturing 218.2 219.0 219.7 220.3 220.9 221.5 222.2 222.8 223.5 224.4 224.8 225.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Construction & Mining 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.5 65.6 65.8 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 Wholesale Trade 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 Retail Trade 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 Information 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 4.6 7.5 6.1 2.7 0.1-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.5 0.1 0.7 Financial Activities 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.6-0.4-0.3 Prof & Business Services 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Educ & Health Services 38.5 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.6 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other Services 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-0.5-0.3-0.2-0.1 0.0 0.0-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 Federal Government 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.1 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8-1.2-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.4-1.5-1.4-0.2 14.4 5.7 0.1 State & Local Government 41.3 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.8 41.9 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 329.5 330.3 331.1 332.2 333.3 334.2 335.0 335.9 336.7 337.6 338.4 339.1 Labor Force (Ths.) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3001 3017 3069 3131 3185 3284 3378 3468 3573 3628 3691 3692.8 Single-Family 2582 2607 2658 2713 2760 2855 2949 3033 3120 3172 3224 3217.3 Multifamily 419 410 411 418 425 429 429 436 453 455 467 475.5 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. Center for Business and Policy Research 53
METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON Annual Outlook for Stockton September 2016 Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income 21.1 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.9 27.5 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.4 35.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 1.1 4.8 5.1 4.1 5.7 6.4 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.2 Wages and Salaries 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.9 Nonwage Income 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.2 Real Personal Income* 18.7 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.2 21.1 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8-1.2 2.6 3.5 2.8 4.5 6.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 Per Capita Income (Ths.) 31.1 31.0 32.1 33.5 34.6 36.1 37.8 38.9 40.2 41.7 43.2 44.9 Real Per Capita Income* 27.6 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.5 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 44.5 45.3 45.8 46.3 45.9 46.8 48.4 49.5 51.0 53.0 54.9 56.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.8 1.2 1.1-1.0 2.0 3.5 2.2 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Non-Farm Employment 198.8 192.4 192.2 197.1 205.2 210.9 218.4 226.5 233.7 237.9 240.6 243.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.6-3.2-0.1 2.6 4.1 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.2 1.8 1.1 1.2 Manufacturing 18.9 17.6 18.0 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.5 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -11.2-6.6 2.0-0.7 0.5 3.4 2.4 2.8-5.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 179.9 174.8 174.2 179.3 187.3 192.4 199.4 207.1 215.2 219.3 221.9 224.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.9-2.9-0.3 2.9 4.4 2.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 Construction & Mining 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.7 Pct Chg Year Ago -26.1-9.4-2.9 3.0 15.3 1.4 13.2 11.8 8.8 4.2 3.0 2.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 47.6 47.5 49.1 51.7 53.9 55.1 57.5 60.2 64.1 65.2 65.8 66.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1-0.1 3.3 5.4 4.3 2.3 4.3 4.6 6.6 1.7 0.9 0.8 Wholesale Trade 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 Retail Trade 23.7 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 25.7 26.1 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.9 13.8 14.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 20.0 21.7 25.3 26.4 26.9 27.3 Information 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.3-4.1-0.3 1.2-1.2-0.8-3.9 4.0-1.0 4.5 0.5 0.0 Financial Activities 8.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9-12.7-3.2 0.6 1.7-2.1-2.0-1.1-2.2-0.9-0.6-0.4 Prof & Business Services 15.9 15.4 15.2 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.7 20.0 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.4-3.1-1.5 9.5 4.7 5.1 7.9 1.4-0.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 Educ & Health Services 33.3 33.5 33.7 34.0 35.5 35.9 36.5 37.3 38.1 38.7 39.3 39.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 4.5 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 Leisure & Hospitality 16.7 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.2 19.1 19.6 20.8 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5-3.3 1.5 4.1 6.8 4.9 3.1 5.7 2.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 Other Services 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3-6.1-2.9 3.2 1.1 4.3 2.2 2.0-0.2-0.5-0.1 0.2 Federal Government 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 5.7-7.1-2.5-10.8-10.1-4.2-0.8 0.0-1.2-1.4 5.0 State & Local Government 35.8 33.8 32.5 32.2 33.6 35.4 36.5 38.0 40.1 41.4 41.8 42.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7-5.6-3.8-1.0 4.3 5.6 3.1 4.0 5.5 3.4 1.0 0.9 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths.) 679.3 688.4 696.1 701.7 706.4 716.5 727.5 738.7 750.0 761.3 772.1 783.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 Labor Force (Ths.) 310.1 311.4 311.3 312.1 313.5 313.9 316.9 321.0 326.9 330.8 334.6 338.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 14.9 16.5 16.2 14.4 12.3 10.5 8.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.3 Total Housing Starts 826 853 957 1058 1220 1299 1564 2212 2846 3055 3329 3646 Single-Family 826 846 826 1045 1096 1285 1511 1740 2433 2640 2899 3183 Multifamily 0 7 132 14 123 14 53 471 413 415 430 463 * Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living. 54 California & Metro Forecast Fall 2016
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH University of the Pacific A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific is California s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento. President Pamela A. Eibeck www.pacific.edu Eberhardt School of Business The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration (MBA), Master of Accounting (MAcc), Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Minors in Management, Business Administration, and Information Systems to nearly 700 students. With an emphasis on interactive classes and studentfaculty engagement, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders through a learning process that is personal, relevant, and professional. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates, the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Center for Business and Policy Research, Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, and Westgate Center for Management Development. Dean Lewis R. Gale www.business.pacific.edu Center for Business and Policy Research The Center for Business and Policy Research, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces quarterly economic forecasts of California and 8 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center conducts policy and planning studies on topics such as water, transportation, housing, and economic development for public and private clients throughout Northern California. Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and Policy Research Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S., University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY) Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research and Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific. Jeff s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act, climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth. His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS. Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY). UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business Sacramento Office: 3200 5th Avenue Sacramento, CA 95817 Stockton Office: 3601 Pacific Avenue Stockton, CA 95211 Pacific.edu/CBPR