Data Digest: Georgia August 2011
Georgia s economic performance is slightly flatter than that of the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 115 Coincident Economic Indicator June 2011 110 105 100 United States Georgia 95 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Job gains remain elusive in Georgia as total employment has fallen below levels of the last recession. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 4,300 Georgia Payroll Employment June 2011 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 Georgia shed 8.4% of total employment from peak to trough. 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
All industries except education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred, gains have been modest to date. Local government State government Federal government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Forty percent of Georgia s construction jobs have been lost. Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Georgia June 2011 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough -40.0-24.5-21.1-17.3-18.3-12.2-10.0-11.2-11.5-50 -40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -6.5-7.4-8.0-8.4-6.0 0.0 08 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.8 0.9 1.2 0.3 3.0 2.8 4.8 7.1 6.4 8.9 4
Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services continue to show positive employment momentum. State government, construction, information, and financial services employment remain very weak. Retail trade, local government, and About Employment Momentum wholesale trade show some improvement. 10 8 Improving Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia June 2011 Expanding 3-m month average ann nualized percent change 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Federal government Construction Local government Financial services Retail trade Information Leisure and hospitality Wholesale trade Manufacturing Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities Business services Other services Education and health care -12 State government Contracting Slipping -14-14 -12-10 -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in Georgia s metro areas have been staggering. Recovery has been slow and Valdosta, one of the smaller metro areas, continues to lose jobs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Georgia June 2011 Warner Robins Valdosta Savannah Rome Macon Gainesville Dalton -18.7 Columbus Brunswick Augusta Atlanta Athens Albany -9.6-8.1-13.3-8.3-11.2-13.2 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough -9.1-8.3-7.2-5.9-5.1-4.3 3.3 0.0 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.5 0.6 0.5 1.4 3.1 48 4.8-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6
Some of the smaller metro areas like Albany, Rome, Brunswick, Columbus, and Savannah show positive employment momentum. Atlanta, Warner Robins, and Dalton are improving, while Augusta and other, smaller metro areas remain weak. About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum Metro Area: Georgia June 2011 Expanding ualized percent change 8 6 4 2 Atlanta Dalton Columbus Rome Brunswick Albany 3-mo onth average ann 0-2 Gainesville Augusta Savannah Warner Robins Athens Macon -4 Valdosta -6 Contracting Slipping -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
December 2010 marked the only month since May 2008 that Georgia s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant, although barely. Employment momentum in Georgia began improving in April 2011. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track January 2007 June 2011 Expanding ent change, annu ualized 3-mon nth average perc 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Contracting Slipping -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
Georgia s unemployment rate remains higher than the overall U.S. rate. Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rate June 2011 10 9 8 Georgia United States 7 6 5 4 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = May 2011. Year ago and January 2007 are included for comparison. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Georgia namely, the U6 figure show that 17 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is higher than comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 20 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q2 2011 (Georgia U6: Q1 2011) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Georgia: U6 Georgia: Unemployment rate 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Georgia U6 data are through first-quarter 2011. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 10
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain high. 4 week moving average 25,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Georgia July 9, 2011 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11
Sales tax revenues are rebounding and have been posting year-over-year increases since late 2010. Year-over-year percent change, 3-month average 50 Georgia Sales Tax Revenue June 2011 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12
Regional manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for all underlying components except employment. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index June 2011 65 60 55 50 The Georgia component of the Southeast PMI was 56.9 in June 45 2011. 40 35 30 25 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center 13
Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early 2010. Year-over-year percent change 30 Existing Home Sales Q1 2011 20 10 0-10 -20 United States Georgia -30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14
As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Georgia and the United States as a whole. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits June 2011 10,000 180,000 9,000 160,000 8,000 140,000 7,000 120,000 6,000 100,000000 5,000 80,000 4,000 60,000 40,000 United States (left scale) Georgia (right scale) 3,000 2,000 20,000 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 15
Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further. Jan 2000 = 100 225 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through May 2011 200 175 150 125 100 Atlanta Composite 20 FHFA House Price Index: Q1 2011 1-yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change United States -3.1-11.8 31.1 Georgia -5.8-10.3 13.3 Albany -3.3 1.5 25.5 Athens -8.5-6.4 17.7 Atlanta -6.4-14.1 6.1 Brunswick -7.1-5.4 36.1 Columbus -1.6-0.9 31.9 Dalton -2.7-9.7 16.1 Gainesville -5.1-14.3 8.4 Macon -5.0-3.7 16.2 Rome -3.0-7.8 16.5 Savannah -4.7-6.5 41.9 Valdosta -3.6 2.6 35.2 Warner Robins -0.2-1.2 19.2 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16
Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains low. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q2 2011 22 20 18 16 14 United States Atlanta 12 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Atlanta. Percent 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q2 2011 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 United States Atlanta 6 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 18
Import activity through Georgia s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through Georgia ports have been increasing. $ thousands Port Activity Q1 2011 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Savannah District, imports Savannah District, exports 2,000,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: The Savannah District includes Atlanta, Brunswick, and Savannah. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 19
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at http://www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm. 20