Commitments of Traders: Commodities

Commitments of Traders: Commodities Leveraged funds positioning covering the week ending May 8, 218 Ole S. Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy

8-May-18 Change Change Change Change Pct 1 yr high 1 yr low Relative to 3-year / 1st - 2nd RSI 14 1 yr max average short ratio month WTI Crude (CME) 438,576-14,535 27,968-7,96 41,68-7,439-2% 496,111 133,66 83% 242, 15.7 62.7.% Brent Crude (ICE) 611,377-17,218 41,929 4,791 569,448-22,9-4% 632,454 2,24 9% 358, 14.6 66.9.2% Gas Oil (ICE) 218,49 3,284 4,71 539 214,419 2,745 1% 214,419 4,89 1% 65, 53.7 64.4.3% RBOB Gasoline 121,643 1,788 8,72 954 113,571 834 1% 113,571-2,873 1% 34, 15.1 68.4.1% NY Harbor ULSD 97,336 263 19,979-6,59 77,357 6,853 1% 97,977-32,32 79% 1, 4.9 67.6.3% NatGas (4 contr.) 345,383-8,465 28,53 36,63 136,853-45,95-25% 452,143 46,382 3% 33, 1.7 57.9 -.7% Gold 118,3-1,471 65,382-11,17 52,621 636 1% 264,934 27,1 2% 123, 1.8 47.5 -.5% Silver 47,739 4,38 67,145 457-19,46 3,923-17% 75,147-39,64-49% 37,.7 55.5 -.5% Platinum 23,2 5 34,396 649-11,394-149 1% 32,21-13,52-87% 12,.7 51.9 -.5% Palladium 9,49-1,41 1,33-241 8,187-8 -9% 27,471 7,45-1% 15, 7.3 54.2.3% HG Copper 76,371-4,191 55,221 1,796 21,15-5,987-22% 125,376 3,724 17% 3, 1.4 53.8 -.7% Soybeans 152,166-36,331 25,124 13,674 127,42-5,5-28% 28,2-118,683 61% 46, 6.1 38.5 -.4% Soybean Meal 132,141-4,9 1,756-926 13,385-3,164-2% 133,549-54,43 98% 22, 75.3 45.2.5% Soybean Oil 68,44 2,338 135,993-3,253-67,949 5,591-8% 1,435-73,54-92% 34,.5 53.8 -.4% Corn 343,355 4,227 131,463-21,348 211,892 25,575 14% 233,63-23,556 91% -49, 2.6 53.9-2.1% Wheat (CBOT) 11,468 9,73 97,142-23,325 4,326 33,28-115% 44,685-157,652 1% -77, 1. 51.7-3.4% Wheat (KCBT) 7,232 6,757 21,62-2,642 48,63 9,399 24% 73,111-34,422 67% -1, 3.3 49.9-3.6% Sugar 143,53 1,19 289,711-8,333-146,658 9,442-6% 12,88-164,21-89% 52,.5 38.6-3.4% Cocoa 1,89-448 43,58-419 57,229-29 % 57,258-52,334 1% 1, 2.3 57.1 -.7% Coffee 36,391-4,525 77,116-9,6-4,725 4,535-1% 285-7,711-58% -8,.5 48.5-1.9% Cotton 14,78 7,944 6,915-99 97,865 8,853 1% 18,778 17,363 9% 56, 15.2 52.5 3.1% Live Cattle 8,671 4,342 65,567 1,9 15,14 3,333 28% 132,551 11,771-1% 62, 1.2 5.5 3.% Feeder Cattle 7,569 296 1,232-72 -2,663 998-27% 18,384-3,949-67% 6,.7 49.3-4.% Lean Hogs 48,19-36 54,728 2,488-6,619-2,848 76% 84,189-6,619-1% 41,.9 5.3-2.5% Total 2,1,273-21,78-1% Source: CFTC, ICE, Bloomberg and Saxo Bank Saxo Group Page 2

Overview 1 lots 3, Commodities: Combined Managed Money Position Energy Metals Agriculture BCOM TR, right Index 3 2,5 28 26 2, 24 1,5 22 1, 2 18 5 16 214 215 216 217 218 14 Saxo Group Page 3

Open Interest and value of 22 major commodities Commodities: Total Open Interest Commodities: Total Value of Open Interest Million lots Energy (7) Metals (5) Agriculture (1) Bn Dollars Energy (7) Metals (5) Agriculture (1) BCOM Index 22 1,4 325 2 18 1,2 3 16 1, 275 14 25 12 8 225 1 6 8 2 6 4 175 4 2 2 15 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 125 Saxo Group Page 4

Crude Oil Combined 1 lots WTI and Brent Crude Oil: Managed Money Position 1,2 1 lots WTI and Brent Crude Oil: Weekly Change 25 Brent WTI Brent WTI 2 1, 15 8 1 5 6 4-5 -1 2-15 213 214 215 216 217 218-2 214 215 216 217 Saxo Group Page 5

1 lots WTI Crude Oil 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 213 214 215 216 217 218 Crude Oil 1 lots 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 WTI Crude Oil: Seasonal Five-year range Five-year average 218 5 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 1 lots Brent Crude Oil 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 1 lots 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Brent Crude Oil: Seasonal Five-year range Five-year average 218-2 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 Saxo Group Page 6

Crude Oil Products & Natural Gas 1 lots RBOB Gasoline 1 lots ICE Gas Oil 15 25 1 5 2 15 1 5-5 -1 213 214 215 216 217 218-5 -1 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots NY Harbor ULSD 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 1 lots Natural Gas (Four contracts) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-8 -6 213 214 215 216 217 218 213 214 215 216 217 218 Saxo Group Page 7

1 lots COMEX Gold 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Gold and silver 1, lots 3 25 2 15 1 COMEX Gold: Seasonal -5-1 -15 213 214 215 216 217 218 5 Five-year range Five-year average 218-5 1 4 7 1 13 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 1 lots COMEX Silver 12 1 8 6 4 2 1, lots 1 8 6 4 2 COMEX Silver: Seasonal -2-2 -4-6 -4 Five-year range Five-year average -8-6 218 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 Saxo Group Page 8

1 lots HG Copper 15 1 5-5 HG Copper and PGM s 1, lots 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 Five-year range Five-year average 218 HG Copper: Seasonal -4-1 213 214 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 215 216 217 218-6 1 4 7 1 13 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 1 lots Platinum 5 4 3 2 1 1 lots Palladium 3 25 2 15 1 5-1 -2-3 -4 213 214 215 216 217-5 -1-15 213 214 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank 215 216 217 218 Saxo Group Page 9

1 lots CBOT Corn 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 213 214 215 216 217 218 Grains 1 lots CBOT Wheat 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots CBOT Soybeans 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots Key Crops: Combined Managed Money Position 6 4 2-2 -4 Corn Wheat Soybeans Total -6 213 214 215 216 217 218 Saxo Group Page 1

1 lots Sugar #11 4 3 2 1-1 -2 Soft Commodities 1 lots Arabica Coffee 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-3 213 214 215 216 217 218-1 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots Cocoa 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 1 lots Cotton 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-1 213 214 215 216 217 218-75 213 214 215 216 217 218 Saxo Group Page 11

1 lots Live Cattle 15 125 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1 213 214 215 216 217 218 Livestock 1 lots Lean Hogs 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots Feeder Cattle 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 lots Livestock: Combined Managed Money Position 25 Live Cattle 2 Feeder Cattle Lean Hogs 15 1 5 213 214 215 216 217 218 Sourc e: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank Saxo Group Page 12

What is the COT report? The Commitments of Traders reports are issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday at 15:3 Eastern time with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday It breaks down the open interest in futures markets where 2 or more traders hold positions Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other It covers most US futures markets from stocks, rates, and IMM currencies to commodities Our focus and that of others is primarily on the behavior of Managed Money traders: Commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming Saxo Group

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