Public Debt Strategy in Mexico

Public Debt Strategy in Mexico 3rd OECD-China Forum on Public Debt Management and Government Securities Markets September 2006, Beijing, China www.hacienda.gob.mx/ucp

2 Index 1. Debt Management Strategy Overview 2. Recent Liability Management Operations 3. Policy Guidelines and Concluding Remarks

Public debt management has been a key element of economic policy in recent years 3 The annual debt management strategy has followed three main guidelines: Finance the public deficit internally. Focus domestic financing on long-term fixed-rate securities Improve external financing conditions through a series of coordinated operations. Main Achievements 1. A balanced composition of domestic and external debt 2. Improved external debt structure 3. Development of local debt markets

1. A balanced debt composition 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jul-06 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 55.3 59.6 59.9 59.5 60.9 67.0 44.7 40.4 40.1 40.5 39.1 33.0 Jul-06 67.4 32.5 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 Federal Government s Net External Debt (% of GDP) Federal Government s Net External Debt Composition (%) 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.0 8.1 6.5 6.9 Source: SHCP Source: SHCP

5 2. An improved structure of external debt Federal Government s Gross External Debt (Billion dollars) UMS Yield Curve 70 60 50 40 30 Capital Markets Trade Restructured Comercial Banks IFIs 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% UMS 31 UMS 26 UMS 19 UMS 17 UMS 16 UMS 13 UMS 11 UMS 22 UMS 08N UMS 15 UMS 14 UMS 12 UMS 10 UMS 09 UMS 33 UMS 34 20 5.0% UMS 08 10 0 2000 2001 Source: SHCP 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jul-06 4.5% UMS 07 4.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Modified Duration */ The size of the bubble represents the amount issued. Source: SHCP

6 3.- Development of local markets Infrastructure 1. Legal framework 2. Clearing and settlement 3. Price vendors 4. Market-makers program Demand Policies 1. Institutional Investors 2. Increased domestic financial savings 3. Promotion of local market among foreign investors Supply Policies 1. Communication strategy 2. Benchmark issuances 3. Market microstructure improvements

7 3.- Development of local markets 20 18 16 14 % 12 10 8 Yield Curve Evolution (%) Nov, 1999 Jan, 2000 May, 2000 Jul, 2001 Jul, 2006 4 3 2 1 Average Maturity and Duration Average Maturity Duration 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 (years) 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.3 6 0 5 10 15 20 Maturity 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Jun-06 Source: SHCP Source: SHCP

The vulnerability of public finances to unfavorable shocks has been reduced 8 Sensitivity of the Financing Cost of the Federal Government Debt 50 Cent Increase in the MXP/USD Exchange Rate (% of GDP) 0.063 100bp Increase of Interest Rates (% of GDP) 0.177 Baa1 Baa2 Ratings of Long-Term External Debt Moody's Fitch S&P S&P Fitch BBB+ BBB 0.025 0.062 Baa3 Ba1 BBB- BB+ Ba2 BB 2000 2006 2000 2006 Jan-97 Aug-99 Mar-00 Mar-00 Feb-02 Feb-02 Jan-05 Jan-05 Dec-05

9 Risk measures have continued to decline 1.6 Federal Government Debt: Interest Rate CaR (Absolute CaR/Expected Cost) 1.06 Federal Government Debt: ExRate CaR (Absolute CaR/Expected Cost) 1.5 1.05 1.05 1.4 1.04 1.3 1.04 1.03 1.2 1.03 1.1 1.02 1.02 1.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1.01 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

10 Index 1. Debt Management Strategy Overview 2. Recent Liability Management Operations 3. Policy Guidelines and Concluding Remarks

A series of operations aimed at reducing the financing cost of public debt and maintaining an adequate risk level were carried out in 2005 and 2006 11 2005 1 2 Purchase of Dollars from the CB and Global Bonds Buyback First Issue of Debt Exchange Warrants (dollars) 2006 3 4 5 Second Issue of Debt Exchange Warrants (euros) Bond Repurchase Offer and Placement of New Global Bond Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions

1. Purchase of Dollars from the CB and Global Bonds Buyback 12 Prefunding Operation (Million dollars) 4,767-1,407 Dollar purchase 2,878 = Available 433 3,360 USD available 1,889 Amortizations 2006 2,927 USD available and Dollar purchase Prepayment of Global Bonds USD available

13 2. Debt Exchange Warrants (dollars) This was the first-ever stand alone, cross-currency debt exchange warrant offering from a sovereign issuer. There was a demand for US$11.5 billion, while the announced original offer was US$1.5 billion. The issue size was increased to US$2.5 billion. This transaction provided an efficient, frictionless mechanism to facilitate and accelerate two of the main debt objectives: Reduce the share of debt in foreign currency Promote an orderly development of the local market by increasing supply when market conditions are favorable Warrant Series XW-5 XW-10 XW-20 Old Bonds: UMS 2007 UMS 2012 UMS 2019 UMS 2008 UMS 2009 UMS 2013 UMS 2014 UMS 2022 UMS 2026 UMS 2010 UMS 2016 UMS 2031 UMS 2011 UMS 2033 Exchanged Bonds: Mbono 2011 Mbono 2014 Mbono 2024 Exercise Date November 9, 2006 October 10, 2006 September 1, 2006

14 3. Debt Exchange Warrants (euros) Mexico issued warrants in euros in March 2006. The operation generated EUR 1.5 billion in demand, 2.5 times the EUR 600 million allocated. Warrant Series: XW-E Old Bonds: Exchanged Securities Exercise Date: UMS EUR 2008 UMS EUR 2010 UMS EUR 2013 UMS ITL 2007 UMS ITL 2013 UMS ITL 2017 UMS DEM 2008 UMS DEM 2009 Mbono 2013 Mbono 2023 Nov. 22, 2006

4. Bonds Repurchase and Placement of New Global Bond 15 A new bond for US$3 billion maturing in 2017 was issued. The operation was linked to an offer to repurchase bonds previously issued in international markets. The repurchase offer faced a demand for US$11.7 billion. The operation increases the liquidity of sovereign debt in international markets, generated NPV savings, and increased the efficiency of the USD yield curve. USD bonds Market Value Non-USD bonds Market Value (million dollars) (millions, orig cy) UMS 2007 292.3 ITL 2007 21.1 UMS 2008 UMS 2008 243.1 303.0 EUR 2008 DEM 2008 143.2 40.5 UMS 2009 411.6 DEM 2009 73.4 UMS 2012 UMS 2013 262.3 271.0 EUR 2010 ITL 2013 92.1 41.9 UMS 2015 472.6 EUR 2013 29.3 UMS 2019 44.8 ITL 2017 9.9 UMS 2022 UMS 2031 17.8 109.4 GBP 2024 26.8

5. Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions 16 The Ministry of Finance will prepay several loans from the Inter- American Development Bank and the World Bank for an approximate amount of USD 9 billion. In order to carry out the prepayment, the Federal Government will purchase US dollars from the Central Bank s international reserve. The funds came from issuing securities in the local market with similar characteristics to the Central Bank s monetary regulation bonds (floating coupon rate). An equivalent amount of BREMS will be retired by the Central Bank in a concurrent transaction.

5. Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions 17 Federal Government External Debt (millions of dollars) Foreign Trade $245 0% World Bank $6,507 Market Debt $42,936 76% 24% IFIS $13,376 12% 12% 0% Restructured $125 IADB $6,869 Source: SHCP

5. Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions 18 11% Financing Cost of IFI instruments vs. Peso Yield Curve 10% 9% (%, pesos) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average Life M Bond Curve World Bank Credits IADB Credits Outstanding amounts by February 28, 2006. Yield curves as of April 24, 2006.

5. Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions 19 Distribution of Financing Cost (Density function) Without Operation With Operation Probability C2 C1 Financing Cost 95% 95% CaR

5. Prepayment of Debt with International Financial Institutions 20 8% Rate in USD (%) 7% 6% 5% SAVINGS Federal Government CB 4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Treasuries World Bank Loans, % USD IADB Loans, % USD % M-Bonds Swap USD

21 Index 1. Overview 2. Recent Liability Management Operations 3. Policy Guidelines and Concluding Remarks

22 Public Debt Policy Guidelines The public debt management strategy followed in the last years has promoted macroeconomic and financial stability by reducing the vulnerability of public finances to adverse shocks. Liability management operations have been aimed at minimizing long-term financing costs and maintaining an adequate level of risk. Public debt policy will continue to pursue these broad guidelines, while focusing on the following: 30-year peso-denominated bond Strengthening benchmark references in the dollar and euro yield curves, while reducing external debt Promoting a liquid repo and securities lending market in order to continue developing the local market Keep strengthening the institutional framework for public debt management

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