CAGRD Agenda Number 2. CONTACT: Perri Benemelis Dennis Rule Marie Pearthree (623) 869-2182 (623) 869-2667 (623) 869-2111 pbenemelis@cap-az.com drule@cap-az.com mpearthree@cap-az.com MEETING DATE: January 21, 2016 AGENDA ITEM: Arizona Water Market Trading and Trends LINKAGE TO STRATEGIC PLAN, POLICY, STATUTE OR GUIDING PRINCIPLE: 2010 CAWCD Strategic Plan Replenishment: Obtain sufficient water supplies to meet replenishment obligation ISSUE SUMMARY/DESCRIPTION: In Arizona, a market for water entitlements is emerging in response to growing and changing water demands under conditions of limited and increasingly variable water supplies. While Arizona's market is nascent, population growth and anticipated Colorado River shortages are expected to drive expansion and further development of the market. CAGRD staff has requested that WestWater Research ("WestWater"), advisor to the CAGRD Water Supply Program and subject matter expert in water resource economics, provide a summary and review of market prices and trading activity for water entitlements in Arizona. CAGRD is currently a prominent buyer of water supplies in Arizona. Thus, it is critical for CAGRD to be informed on market conditions and pricing. WestWater will present an assessment of the overall size of Arizona's market for water entitlements, including volume and value of water traded as well as growth trends. Since 2008, an average of $38 million and 310,000 AF have changed hands annually. In addition, WestWater will identify the types or classes of water entitlements that are traded in Arizona, and summarize market activity and prices for each type of entitlement. Drivers of trading activity and determinants of price will be addressed. For example, rising Central Arizona Project water delivery rates have driven price appreciation for some classes of water entitlements. A comparative analysis of Arizona's market to markets in other Lower Basin states will be provided.
CAGRD Agenda Number 2. Attachment. Arizona s Market for Water Entitlements CAGRD & Underground Storage Committee of the CAWCD Board of Directors January 21, 2016 Arizona Water Market Overview Market Development: Nascent market that is relatively small, but growing rapidly in response to multiple drivers. Enabling Regulatory Conditions: 1980 Groundwater Management Act. 1986 Underground Water Storage and Recovery Program. 1995 Assured and Adequate Water Supply Rules. Market Drivers: Urban growth. Transition to renewable supplies. Anticipated Colorado River shortages. 2 1
Arizona Water Market Size Arizona s water market accounts for approximately 10% of total value traded annually across the western United States. Average Annual Value Traded, 2011 2015 All Other Western States Including Texas $370 Million Arizona $44 Million 3 Arizona Market Growth Annual volume traded has increased over the past decade. Market drivers have shifted over time: 2006-2008: Land development. 2009-2012: Private investment. 2013-2015: Gov t agencies. Total Volume Traded (Thousand AF) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Land Developers Private Investors Government Agencies 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4 2
Commonly Traded Assets Surface Water CAP M&I Subcontracts CAP Indian Subcontracts Colorado River Entitlements Groundwater Type 2 Grandfathered Groundwater Rights Extinguishment Credits Imported Groundwater Underground Storage Long-Term Storage Credits Effluent Contractual Entitlements 5 Arizona Sub Markets 6 3
Market Participants Volume Sold by Sector, 2013 2015 Tribes Agricultural Government Agencies Industrial Investment Firms Volume Purchased by Sector, 2013 2015 Real Estate Developers Municipal Tribes Government Agencies Municipal Industrial Real Estate Developers Investment Firms 7 CAGRD s Market Position CAGRD uses renewable water supplies to replenish excess groundwater pumped by its members. Currently CAGRD is the largest buyer in the market. 100% Total Value Traded, 2011 2015 % of Total Value Traded 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGRD Other Buyers 8 4
CAGRD Target Supplies CAGRD Water Supply Program has established four high-priority target asset classes: LTSC Available Supply: 11,000 22,000 AF CAGRD Acquisitions, 2012 2015: 5,852 AF CAP Water Available Supply: 279,700 559,300 AF CAGRD Acquisitions, 2012 2015: 18,500 AF Colorado River Available Supply: 109,800 219,700 AF CAGRD Acquisitions, 2012 2015: 0 AF Effluent Available Supply: 59,600 119,200 AF CAGRD Acquisitions, 2012 2015: 2,400 AF 9 Central Arizona Project Tribal Leases Past: 100-year agreements through water rights settlements. Present: Emergence of short-term (1 to 5 year) leases. Future: Additional short- and mid-term leases expected. 250,000 200,000 Volume (AF) 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Past Present Future Long Term Mid Term Short Term 10 5
Long Term Storage Credits Prices have escalated with rising CAP delivery rates. Tribes have accrued large quantities of LTSC, and at least one Tribe has sold LTSC. $350 Phoenix AMA LTSC Prices: Annual Average and Range, 2008 2015 $300 $250 Price ($/AF) $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11 Limited trading activity. Effluent Effluent leases typically require development of conveyance and recharge infrastructure. Markets are localized in the vicinity of wastewater treatment plants. Water cost determined by multiple factors: Development costs. Alternative supplies. Localized competition. 12 6
Colorado River Entitlements Arizona Limited trading activity. Colorado River Irrigated Land Sales by Crop Type, 2010 2015 $30,000 Farmland prices indicate water values of $3,000 to $4,500 per AF. Sales of priority 4 entitlements separate from land: $7,000 to $17,000 per AF. Unit Price ($/Acre) $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Alfalfa/Cotton Citrus Vegetables 13 Colorado River Entitlements California California Water Entitlement Leases Locations: Fort Yuma Reservation, Palo Verde ID, Imperial ID. Price Range: $156 to $594 per AFY. Lease Amount: 143,000 to 233,000 AFY. California Farmland Sales, 2015-2016 Location: Palo Verde ID. Price: $20,000 per acre ($4,000 per AF). Acres Sold: 14,372 acres (71,860 AF). 14 7
Lower Basin States Market Comparison Nevada Lease 12% $16M Sale 88% Price range: $125 $300/AFY Arizona Single Use Credits 28% $44M Sale 19% Lease 53% Price range: $100 $325/AFY California Sale 17% $250M Traded Annually Lease 83% Price range: $175 $2,200/AFY 15 8