Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) 1390

Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : 1505 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 8% What s changed? Target Changed from 1250 to 1505 EPS FY15E Changed from 22.1 to 22.8 EPS FY16E Changed from 25.7 to 27 Rating Unchanged Quarterly performance Crore Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY (%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%) NII 1057.9 912.7 15.9 1038.9 1.8 Other Income 494.1 299.7 64.9 466.5 5.9 PPP 736.0 584.7 25.9 733.6 0.3 PAT 463.0 340.0 36.2 444.5 4.2 Key financials crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E NII 3720 4129 4985 5906 PPP 2577 2743 3441 4155 PAT 1502 1759 2077 2495 Valuation summary FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E P/E 71.3 60.9 51.5 42.9 Target P/E 75.9 64.8 54.9 45.7 P/ABV 9.0 7.9 7.0 6.1 Target P/ABV 9.7 8.7 7.6 6.6 RoA 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 RoE 13.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 Stock data Market Capitalisation 107810 crore GNPA (Q3FY15) 1219 crore NNPA (Q3FY15) 611 crore NIM (Q3FY15) 4.7 52 week H/L 1444/630 Equity capital 384 crore Face value 5 DII holding (%) 2.0 FII holding (%) 35.3 Price performance Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Kotak Mahindra bank -5.6 7.3 25.4 43.1 HDFC Bank 3.9 7.4 24.4 32.1 Axis Bank 2.5 4.7 42.6 80.7 Research Analyst Kajal Gandhi kajal.gandhi@icicisecurities.com Vasant Lohiya vasant.lohiya@icicisecurities.com Sheetal Ashar sheetal.ashar@icicisecurities.com January 21, 2015 Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) 1390 Growth traction strong; merger to add value Standalone profit grew 36% YoY to 464 crore, higher than our estimate of 432 crore, mainly due to strong other income and lower provisions that came in higher than estimates at 444 crore rising 26% YoY vs. our estimate of 404 crore. NII grew 12.4% YoY to 1038 crore as estimated with stable margin at 5% Other income grew 65% YoY to 494 crore, higher than expectation led by strong treasury gains of 118 crore vs. 85 crore QoQ Credit and deposits grew higher than estimates at 21.6% YoY ( 64641 crore) and 33.6% YoY ( 73066 crore), respectively, vs. 17% and 28% expected. Higher growth was seen in retail (mortgage) and agri loan book whereas the corporate book slowed down leading to NII growth coming marginally lower at 1058 crore while NIM has also declined to 4.8% vs. 5% QoQ Consolidated PAT grew 21% YoY and flat QoQ to 716 crore. Share of subsidiaries in PAT moderated to 36% vs. 38% earlier New bank in 2002, making material mark in industry-retail heavy Kotak Mahindra Bank, promoted by Uday Kotak, post receiving a licence in 2002 has grown to a loan-book size of 60948 crore and built a branch network of 641 branches managing CASA ratio of 31%. The bank s retail loans form 41% of total loans while corporate & agriculture comprise the rest. In 2003, it had 72% retail loans while CV loans dominated the book that has slightly moderated now at 5062 crore. However, home loan ( 1284 crore) & other personal loans are also growing fast in retail. Hence, KMB earns the best NIM in industry at 4.5-4.9% led by high yielding retail loans. Also, auto loans by Kotak Prime are strong. We revised credit CAGR of 20% to 22% to 79249 crore, maintaining margins at ~4.5%. Savings rate deregulation; raising same to 6% proves beneficial The savings rate was hiked to 6% by KMB post deregulation by the RBI in September 2010. The bank almost tripled its savings deposits from 3331 crore in March 2011 to 9200 crore by March 2014. It garnered 600-800 crore on a quarterly basis vs. 900 crore in full year FY11. CASA ratio averaged around 28-29% in the past and is seen averaging around 32-33% consistently by FY16E to 28716 crore. Total deposits grew at 23% CAGR over FY10-13. We have raised growth estimates and see deposits growth at 21.2% CAGR (from 19%) over FY14-16E to 86712 crore. Strong management, business model and controlled asset quality KMB has one of the most stable asset quality with NNPA ratio of 1% and negligible restructured assets. KMB is well capitalised with tier I of 18.1% (maintained 15-18% since start). It has grown credit by 15x in FY02-08 to 15520 crore and post that at 25% CAGR to 48468 crore by FY13 with profit surging to 1360 crore from 54 crore in FY02. FY14 growth was sluggish on a conscious slowdown. On high other income and low provisions, PAT may grow at 18% CAGR over FY14-16E to 2077 crore. Maintain HOLD, merger to add strength KMB trades at rich valuations consistently due to its superior return ratios and NIM (RoA of 1.8% and NIM at 5%). With the ING Vysya Bank merger, the bank brought down promoter stake from 40% to 34% and also added value and geographical synergies in the company. We roll over to FY17 factoring in current Kotak group valuation on an SOTP basis at 1370 (4.5x FY16E standalone ABV for bank). However, addition of ING Vysya incremental BV and assigning KMB multiple we add 135 to the SOTP. We maintain HOLD rating with a revised target price of 1505. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis Q3FY15 Q3FY15E Q3FY14 YoY (%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%) Comments NII 1,057.9 1,072.4 912.7 15.9 1,038.9 1.8 NII marginally lower than estimate, higher mortgage and agri loans along with build-up in investment book NIM (%) 4.70 4.90 4.90-20 bps 5.00-30 bps Other Income 494.1 362.6 299.7 64.9 466.5 5.9 NIM decline of 30 bps led by growth of low yielding retail and higher deposit growth to raise investment book having low yields than loans Strong treasury gain of 118 crore pushes other income while fee income was flat with slow corporate loan growth Net Total Income 1,552.0 1,435.1 1,212.5 28.0 1,505.3 3.1 Staff cost 367.9 332.6 277.3 32.7 354.5 3.8 Other Operating Expenses 448.1 406.5 350.4 27.9 417.2 7.4 PPP 736.0 696.0 584.7 25.9 733.6 0.3 Provision 29.9 50.0 69.7-57.1 53.7-44.2 Writeback of 56 crore in investment provisions PBT 706.1 646.0 515.0 37.1 680.0 3.8 Tax Outgo 243.1 213.2 175.0 38.9 235.5 3.3 PAT 463.0 432.8 340.0 36.2 444.5 4.2 PAT growth came higher-than-expected Key Metrics GNPA 1,219.9 1,206.2 1,076.2 13.4 1,165.4 4.7 NNPA 629.8 617.6 584.5 7.7 611.5 3.0 Asset quality relaitvely stable Total Restructured assets 159.1 176.0 42.0 278.8 160.0-0.6 Restructured assets stable at 0.25% of total credit Change in estimates FY15E FY16E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Net Interest Income 4,070.3 4,129.1 1.4 4,683.5 4,984.6 6.4 Pre Provision Profit 2,768.5 2,743.0-0.9 3,287.3 3,441.3 4.7 NIM (%) 4.5 4.5 4 bps 4.4 4.6 20 bps PAT 1,699.7 1,758.8 3.5 1,982.4 2,077.2 4.8 Bank has guided on realising ~ 1800-2000 crore from its stressed portfolio over next three years not factored by us in estimates ABV ( ) 168.9 171.0 1.3 188.8 195.6 3.6 Assumptions Current Earlier FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E Credit growth (%) 24.0 9.4 21.0 23.5 19.3 20.5 Deposit growth (%) 32.4 15.8 21.1 21.2 17.0 21.1 CASA ratio (%) 29.2 31.9 32.5 33.1 31.8 32.4 NIM calculated (%) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 Cost to income ratio (%) 50.6 49.7 52.9 50.0 51.1 49.8 GNPA ( crore) 758.1 1,059.6 1,187.9 1,425.7 1,407.5 1,636.2 NNPA ( crore) 311.4 573.7 737.5 781.7 847.7 935.3 Slippage ratio (%) 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 Credit cost (%) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

Merged entity will have 441 branches in the Top 8 cities Merged entity The proposed merger would result in ~15.2% dilution of the equity share capital of the merged Kotak. Hence, promoter holding in Kotak Mahindra Bank is expected to decline to 34% from 40% currently. RBI had directed Kotak Bank s promoter to bring down their holding to 30% by December 2016 and 20% by March 2018. In terms of business parameters, Kotak Mahindra Bank, post merger will become the fourth largest private bank with branches at 1214, business size of 230000 crore, employees at ~40000 & customers at ~10 million. Rationale for deal 1. The merger would give Kotak Bank a deeper presence in southern India as ING Vysya has two-third of its 573 branches in south. Kotak Bank has 80% of its 641 branches in western & northern region. Thus, the merger provides larger presence with minimum overlap 2. The merger enables Kotak Bank to diversify its book, especially in the SME segment, which constitutes 7% of loans vs. 36% in case of ING Vysya 3. The merger would yield more liquidity with significant foreign headroom in Kotak Bank even post merger, with foreign shareholding at ~47% in the merged entity. The management indicated that they will apply to RBI for raising the foreign holding limit to 74% from 49% currently 4. Merger will allow Kotak Bank to leverage on large international corporates in India with access to overseas relationships of ING Group 5. The merger is also beneficial on the liability front as both banks have CASA ratio of ~31%. Owing to strong SME business, ING Vysya s CA float is healthy. Further, there is large scope for garnering savings balances as Kotak Bank offers a higher rate of 5.5-6% View on merger We believe the deal remains beneficial for the merged entity while its book value is accretive. Standalone Kotak Bank trades at higher valuation (more than 4x ABV) compared to ING Vysya (~2x ABV). The acquisition has been cheap at 2.2x trailing ABV of ING Vysya. In the past, acquisition deals have happened at higher multiples of >3x ABV. Though in terms of value per branch at ~ 25 crore, this deal seems higher, it should be looked at from the perspective that ING Vysya Bank is much better than banks acquired in previous deals. Post merger, Kotak s banking business RoA will decline to ~1.6% from 1.8% immediately. However, we believe the benefits of merger synergies will accrue over time, which will enable the merged entity to clock healthy return ratios, going ahead. We expect Kotak s banking business post merger ABV to increase by ~ 30. Valuing at 4.5x the incremental book value, it adds 135 to SoTP based target price. Exhibit 1: Combined branch network (H1FY15) status (Total ~1240) Branches ING Vysya Kotak Bank Kotak (Merged) West 12% 46% 30% North 20% 34% 27% South 64% 15% 38% East 47% 5% 5% ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

Exhibit 2: Advances mix % ING Kotak Bank Merged Agri 11 12 12 SME 38 7 17 Large 39 31 33 Retail 19 50 40 Exhibit 3: Business parameters H1FY15 Merged banking entity Amount ( crore) ING Vysya Kotak bank* Kotak (Merged) Branches (nos) 573 641 1214 ATMs (nos) 635 1159 1794 Employees (nos) 10591 29220 39811 Customers (millions) ~2 ~8 ~10 Total Assets 64582 95430 160012 Advances 39558 60948 100506 Deposits 44652 68103 112755 RoAA (Annualised) 1.07 1.8 1.6 RoAE (Annualised) 8.9 14.26 12.83 GNPA 636 1165.4 1,801 GNPA % 1.59 1.89 1.79 NNPA 165.2 611.4 776.6 NNPA % 0.42 1.00 0.77, * Standalone numbers ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

[ Company Analysis Business aspects (Kotak) Kotak Mahindra Bank has a presence across all financial verticals, namely banking, securities, investment banking, asset management, consumer finance and life insurance. The company has a diversified product offering and has an experienced management. In the past six years, the credit and deposit CAGR has been 25% and 23%, respectively, to 53027 crore and 59072 crore by FY14, higher than industry averages. Kotak Bank has largely been a retail lender with 64% of its loan book being in retail in FY10. It has now moderated to 46% in FY14. In FY14, credit grew 9.5% YoY and deposits 15% YoY. In H1FY15 Advances growth recovered with corporate banking loans surging 43% YoY while overall growth was 20% YoY to 60948 crore. Ex CV/CE, the growth was 24% YoY. Deposits grew a strong 29% YoY to 68103 crore. Credit grew 21% YoY to 64641 in Q3FY15 Exhibit 4: On YoY basis business growth muted. ( crore) 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 FY12 39079 38537 42318 41632 45443 45463 Q1FY13 50245 51524 Q2FY13 48469 51029 Q3FY13 50539 52454 FY13 50609 52641 Q1FY14 53149 54671 Q2FY14 53028 59072 Q3FY14 56922 61407 FY14 60948 68103 Q1FY15 64641 73066 64175 71541 79249 86713 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 FY15E FY16E Advances Deposits Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Except for CV/CE and corporate banking, YoY basis credit growth was strong across other segments, especially in case of personal loans and agri finance. Retail loans now constitute 42% of total credit in standalone whereas due to auto loans of Kotak Prime, in consolidated, retail forms ~50% of total credit of 81418 crore as on FY14 (now 86500 crore). Currently, CV/CE is still seeing lower growth while home loans, personal loans including small business loans and agri saw strong QoQ growth. Exhibit 5: Loan book movement over the years (standalone) crore FY12 FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Growth yoy (%) Proportion (%) Growth qoq (%) CVs and contruction eqmt. 7798 7805 7508 6781 6005 5441 5104 5062 5027-16.3 7.8-0.7 Personal Loans incl small busines 1868 2897 2940 3082 3156 4632 4723 5301 5929 88 9.2 11.8 Home loans 8333 10727 11030 11307 11454 12100 12312 12894 13738 19.9 21.3 6.5 Corporate banking 10942 12291 14849 14759 16621 14337 18568 21140 22044 33 34.1 4.3 Agricultural finance 5714 8356 7841 7910 9023 10468 9941 10137 10849 20.2 16.8 7.0 Others 4424 6393 6371 6770 6890 6010 6274 6414 7054 2 10.9 10.0 Total 39079 48469 50539 50609 53149 52988 56922 60948 64641 21.6 100.0 6.1 KMB earns the best NIM in industry at 4.7-5% led by high yielding retail loans and working capital corporate loans. NII has grown from 1858 crore in FY10 to 3720 crore by FY14 supported by strong credit and savings deposit growth. We expect higher NII and is seen growing at 16% vs. 12% CAGR to 4985 crore by FY16E on account of strong credit growth performance. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

NII was marginally lower than estimate with higher mortgage and agri loans along with build-up in the investment book. Over FY14-16E, we expect NIMs to stay at healthy levels of ~4.5% (in line with management guidance). Exhibit 6: NIM lower sequentially to 4.7% from 5% 5.2 (%) 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 NIM Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Deposit franchise (branches) build-up gradually enabled KMB to maintain healthy margins of >4.5% since FY08 despite a challenging environment. In the past two or three years due to higher focus on savings deposits, CASA has been stable at 31% wherein other banks are seeing a decline in CASA. The combined branch network post merger is expected to be around 1240 currently. With strong savings deposits growth at 36% YoY to 12354 crore, branches are expected to deliver a strong performance over time. Initial cost is incurred on employees and setup upfront. We expect deposits to grow at 21% CAGR to 86712 crore. Exhibit 7: Branch network grows to 661 branches (added 130 branches in last one year) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Other income growth remains strong Non interest income has grown 2.2x to 13997 crore by FY14. Core fee income and forex transaction fees enabled the bank to achieve stronger other income. Q3FY15 saw non interest income surging 64% YoY to 494 crore mainly led by strong trading gains at 118 crore. On a QoQ basis, the growth was 6%. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

Strong management, business model and controlled asset quality KMB s asset quality is one of the most stable with NNPA ratio of 1% and negligible restructured assets. This depicts the strong operational business model of the bank and management having full control. Exhibit 8: NPA levels maintained at comfortable levels 2.7 2.3 2.5 The management has guided that their CV/CE portfolio may have bottomed out in terms of NPA and no major negative surprise is expected. The focus now would be on resolution and recoveries (%) 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3-0.1 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 FY15E FY16E GNPA NNPA Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Standard restructured loans stood stable at 159 crore (stable at 0.25% of net advances) after seeing a huge surge in Q1FY15. In FY14, RA was 0.01% of net advances. Still the number is too small. We expect GNPA and NNPA ratios to be same around 1.8% and 1%, respectively, by FY16E. Even in FY17E we expect stability in asset quality. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

Performance of consolidated entity stable Exhibit 9: Consolidated profit over the years, ex bank other subsidiaries form 36% of PAT Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Kotak Bank 188 249 252 260 276 297 282 280 362 436 403 353 340 407 430 445 464 Kotak Securities 47 36 23 29 24 50 23 40 38 *13 31 40 46 44 68 66 60 Kotak Mahindra Capital 8 30 1-4 4 5 6 4 2 4 4-2 7 5-4 -7-6 Kotak Prime 94 87 94 90 104 97 94 114 105 119 117 125 123 126 120 125 120 Kotak AMC & Trust 7 4 9 7 3 3 4-5 11 2 7 17 12 4 0-1 -10 International Subsidiaries 8 15-3 -7-4 3-5 8 5-1 -10 1 9 6 7 13 14 Kotak Investment advisors 5 6 11 8 7 10 8 9 6 8 1 4 7 5 8 4 2 Kotak Mahindra Investments 3 6 3 3 3 6 4 16 8 5 4 11 11 16 17 25 24 Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual 24 71 46 53 47 57 32 47 53 58 71 44 60 65 49 52 51 Total (net off aflliates/minority) 384 491 436 433 464 528 443 502 577 666 627 583 591 678 695 718 715 Exhibit 10: Profitability performance at consolidated level PAT ( crore) Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YOY (%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%) Kotak Bank 464.0 340.0 36.5 445.5 4.2 Kotak Securities 60.0 46.0 30.4 66.0-9.1 Kotak Mahindra Capital -6.0 7.0 NA -7.0 NA Kotak Prime 120.0 123.0-2.4 125.0-4.0 Kotak AMC & Trust -10.0 12.0 NA -1.0 NA International Subsidiaries 14.0 9.0 NA 13.0 7.7 Kotak Investment advisors 2.0 7.0-71.4 4.0-50.0 Kotak Mahindra Investments 24.0 11.0 118.2 25.0-4.0 Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual 51.0 60.0-15.0 52.0-1.9 Total (net off equity aflliates/minority) 715.4 591.0 21.0 718.5-0.4 Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Kotak Prime The overall loan book has tripled in six years from 5615 crore to 17374 crore in FY14. Kotak Prime, the next highest profit making segment, grew tepidly with loan growth of 2% YoY to 17374 crore in FY14 while car loans within the same grew 4% YoY to 13273 crore. PAT grew 14% YoY to 491 crore. Q3FY15 PAT was flat around 120 crore with subdued loan growth continuing. Exhibit 11: Kotak Mahindra Prime continues to deliver steady profitability Crore Q3FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY14 YoY Gr. (%) QoQ Gr. (%) PBT 183.0 190.0 190.0-3.7-3.7 PAT 120.0 125.0 123.0-2.4-4.0 Loans 19073.0 18819.0 16858.0 13.1 1.3 -car loans in same 14234.0 13946.0 13066.0 8.9 2.1 CAR (%) 17.3 17.7 - - ROA (%) 2.3 2.5 - - NET NPA -cars (%) 0.4 0.3 - - Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

Exhibit 12: Kotak Prime second highest profit contributor Q3FY15 Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13 Q1FY13 Q4FY12 Q3FY12 Q2FY12 Q1FY12 PBT 183 190 183 192 190 191 179 174 158 170 139 143 152 134 141 PAT 120 125 120 126 123 125 117 119 105 114 94 97 104 90 94 Loans 19073 18819 17693 17371 16858 16952 17093 17022 16042 15173 14114 13386 12379 12547 11569 -car loans 14234 13946 13418 13273 13066 13136 13055 12777 12237 11756 11154 10577 9737 9821 8938 CAR 17.3 17.7 17 17.7 17.1 16.4 16 15.4 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.3 16.8 15.9 16 ROA 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.9 3 2.8 3.2 Net NPA -cars 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.20% 0.2 0.3% Kotak Securities Kotak Securities (K-Sec), a KMB subsidiary, has been one of the large stock broking firms offering both retail and institutional services. It had 9% market share in FY07, which has declined to as low at 2.4% currently on account of rising options volume generating lower yields and relative lower push by the broker in the same. The company clocked an average daily turnover of 3,720 crore in FY07 and is currently at 3920 crore after reaching peaks of 4200 crore in between. The end of the JV with Goldman Sachs in May 2006 has not made any meaningful impact on its market share. Competition intensified in the recent past in the Indian broking space, which resulted in a fall in broking yields for all players. Exhibit 13: Average daily turnover trend 8000 7000 6000 ( Crore) 5000 4000 3000 2000 4100 3800 3600 3925 4522 5205 4648 3582 4261 4160 4137 3300 3343 3673 3814 3692 4248 3720 3903 6053 6621 7378 1000 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Exhibit 14: Market share in average daily volume surges in Q3FY15 (reported) 5.5 5 5.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 The market share of Kotak Securities stood at 2.7% in (%) 4 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.5 Q2FY15 but is still far from 5% of FY09 3 2.5 2 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

It recorded a profit of 160 crore in FY14, a decline from highs of 255 crore in FY07. Declining cash volumes and also lower yield on turnover remain key reasons. Profit of 66 crore was higher in Q2FY15 on strong daily volume of 6623 crore, up 10% QoQ. Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual Life Insurance is a 74:26 JV between Kotak Mahindra Bank and Old Mutual Life. Kotak Life had managed to capture market share of ~3%. It recorded 74% CAGR in annualised premium equivalent (APE) over FY04-07. Post FY09, after which growth collapsed, annualised premium equivalent (APE) has been hovering around 1000 crore till now. Annual profits touched around 239 crore as on FY14 growing from 14 crore in FY09. The life insurance performance has stabilised with lower growth now. FY14 new business premium de-grew 20% YoY to 479 crore with APE decline 10% YoY. Q3FY15 PAT was at 51 crore led by strong 17% individual premium growth. On APE (Single @ 1/10th) basis, share of Kotak Bank for FY14 is at 29% Exhibit 15: Life insurance business statistics on APE basis market share is 29% Premium ( crore) Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Renewal 327.0 334.0 527.0 240.0 337.0 350.0 Indvl Regular 104.0 101.0 186.0 58.0 111.0 133.0 group 127.0 127.0 205.0 134.0 170.0 159.0 Single 49.0 37.0 88.0 26.0 50.0 26.0 New Business Premium 280.0 265.0 479.0 218.0 331.0 318.0 APE 235.9 231.7 399.8 194.6 286.0 294.6 Solvency Ratio (%) 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 PAT 44.0 60.0 65.0 49.0 52.0 51.0 Source: Company quarterly earnings update, ICICIdirect.com Research Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Kotak AMC has grown its average AUM at 21% CAGR to 33079 crore by FY07-14. Its share of equity in total has been rising gradually from 14% in FY09 to 24% in FY14. This has helped in improving profitability to 41 crore in FY14 vs. 12 crore in FY13. However, even at current AUM of 39100 crore, 9MFY15 is still in loss. Kotak Mahindra Capital (KMCC) The Kotak Mahindra Group carries on its investment banking business through Kotak Mahindra Capital Company (KMCC), a subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB). Kotak bought the 25% stake held by Goldman Sachs in KMCC in May 2006 by paying 210 crore, making it a 100% subsidiary. KMCC has a strong presence in managing equity issuances and advising on M&A transactions and has benefited largely from the boom in investment banking activity in India. The company de-merged its principal and trading investments division (including primary dealership) in March 2007 (to free up surplus capital) and now primarily operates as a full service investment bank, offering advisory and transactional services. It earned revenue of 85 crore and PAT of 14 crore in FY14. In Q3FY15, it reported a loss of 6 crore. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10

Outlook and valuation KMB has been trading at rich valuations consistently due to its superior return ratios with FY14 RoA of 1.7%. It earns highest NIM in the industry. The bank is expected to realise huge profits of ~ 1800-2000 crore over the next three years from its stressed asset book, which we have not yet factored in our estimates. This bank depicts its strong operational business model and management having full control via consistent performance. RBI s mandate to bring down promoter stake from 40% to 20% by FY18 has kept the stock in the limelight with continuous dilution at higher prices. With ING Vysya Bank merger, the bank brought down promoter stake from 40% to 34% and also added value and geographical synergies in the company. We roll over to FY17 factoring in current Kotak group valuation on SOTP basis at 1370 (4.5x FY16E standalone ABV for bank). However, addition of ING Vysya incremental BV and assigning KMB multiple, we add 135 to the SOTP. We maintain HOLD rating with a revised target price of 1505. Exhibit 16: DuPont Analysis (Bank standalone) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net interest income/ avg. total assets 5.1 5.3 5.6 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 Non-interest income/ avg. total assets 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 Non-operating profit/ avg. total assets 7.0 6.3 7.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 Operating expenses/ avg. total assets 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.9 Operating profit/ avg. total assets 2.8 2.1 3.9 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 Provisions/ avg. total assets 1.1 0.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 Return on avg. total assets 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Leverage 9.3 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.9 8.6 7.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 Return on equity 11.4 7.5 13.5 14.5 14.7 15.6 13.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 Exhibit 17: Valuation FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E EPS ( ) 19.5 22.8 27.0 32.4 Growth (%) 7.0 17.1 18.1 20.1 P/E (x) 71.3 60.9 51.5 42.9 ABV 151.9 171.0 195.6 225.8 P/ABV (x) 9.0 7.9 7.0 6.1 GNPA (%) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 RoNA (%) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 RoE (%) 13.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 Exhibit 18: Valuation ( ) Company Value / share KMB 1027 Kotak Life 49 Kotak Mahindra Prime 187 Kotak Mahindra Capital 11 Kotak Securities 67 Kotak AUM 29 1370 Adding ING Vysya incremental 30 in ABV 135 SOTP target 1505 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 11

Company snapshot 1,600 Target - 1505 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Mar-03 Promoter stake was at 63% in the bank, post incorporation in 2002 May-05 Announced bonus shares May-07 In peak market, capital market related businesses were doing well and getting higher valuation multiples. Bank's market cap share in total market used tobe less FY08 Announced stock split, FV reduced to 5 from 10 Jun-09 Anand Mahindra ceased to be a promoter of the bank Feb-11 Bank aspired to be national, inorganic (route) is something that was on radar also. Thereafter, the stock saw a new rally and is rising continuously Oct-11 Savings rate de-regulated by RBI, Kotak Bank offered higher interest rate of 6% above 1 lakh and 5% below 1 lakh vs the floor of 4%. This has been very helpful in saving balance increase as it started adding 600-800 crore in a quarter post this hike. Mar-12 Asset quality maintained even with a large commercial vehicle and construction equipment portfolio Jul-12 RBI asked promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank to cut their stake in the bank to 20% from 45 % by 2018. With expectation of continuous dilution at higher multiple of BV, stock price remained on an uptrend May-13 G-sec yields spiked post Fed announcement on May 22 of its intention to taper QE and tight liquidity measures by RBI of MSF rate hike etc, impacted banks, particularly wholesale funded however Kotak Bank although being lower on CASA remained resilient Oct-13 Post liquidity tightening measures like MSF reversed by RBI, stock saw respite Nov-14 Announced merger with ING Vysya Bank in ratio of 725 shares of Kotak bank for 1000 shares of ING Vysya Bank Jan-15 Merger approved by shareholders Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) 1 Kotak (Uday Suresh) 31-Dec-14 0.40 306.3 0.0 2 Capital International, Inc. 31-Dec-14 0.05 36.2 6.2 3 CPP Investment Board 31-Dec-14 0.05 35.9 0.0 4 Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp 31-Dec-14 0.04 32.8 0.0 5 First State Investment Management (UK) Limited 31-Dec-14 0.03 20.0 0.2 6 Caladium Investments Pte. Ltd. 31-Dec-14 0.03 20.0 0.0 7 Mahindra (Anuradha) 31-Dec-14 0.02 13.4 0.0 8 Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C. 31-Dec-14 0.02 12.4 0.2 9 Genesis Group Trust Employee Benefit Plans 30-Sep-14 0.01 9.6-0.3 10 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 31-Dec-14 0.01 8.6 0.0 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity ( crore and shares in mn) Shareholding Pattern (in %) Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Promoter 43.58 40.33 40.33 40.07 40.05 FII 32.06 35.09 35.09 34.61 35.09 DII 1.63 1.78 1.78 2.01 2.03 Others 22.73 22.80 22.80 23.31 22.66 Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares First State Investment Management (UK) Limited 180.12 11.10 Kotak (Uday Suresh) -398.93-26.90 CPP Investment Board 160.17 10.88 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. -70.39-4.45 Capital International, Inc. 103.22 4.78 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. -37.79-2.07 Franklin Advisers, Inc. 49.69 3.00 Lyxor Asset Management -26.16-1.66 Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C. 43.85 2.91 Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd. -27.44-1.60 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 12

Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Interest Earned 8767.1 9548.0 11310.3 13436.3 Interest Expended 5047.1 5418.9 6325.6 7530.2 Net Interest Income 3720.0 4129.1 4984.6 5906.1 growth (%) 16.0 11.0 20.7 18.5 Non Interest Income 1399.7 1689.7 1893.4 2135.8 Net Income 5119.8 5818.8 6878.0 8041.9 Operating expense 2542.7 3075.8 3436.7 3887.2 Gross profit 2577.1 2743.0 3441.3 4154.8 Provisions 304.7 194.1 430.9 538.1 Taxes 770.0 790.2 933.2 1121.2 Net Profit 1502.4 1758.8 2077.2 2495.5 growth (%) 10.4 17.1 18.1 20.1 EPS 19.5 22.8 27.0 32.4 Key Ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Valuation No. of Equity Shares 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 EPS ( ) 19.5 22.8 27.0 32.4 BV ( ) 159.4 180.6 205.8 236.5 BV-ADJ ( ) 151.9 171.0 195.6 225.8 P/E 71.3 60.9 51.5 42.9 P/BV 9.2 8.1 7.1 6.2 P/ABV 9.0 7.9 7.0 6.1 Yields & Margins (%) Yield on avg earning assets 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.2 Avg. cost on funds 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 Net Interest Margins 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 Avg. Cost of Deposits 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 Yield on average advances 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.5 Quality and Efficiency (%) Cost / Total net income 49.7 52.9 50.0 48.3 Credit/Deposit ratio 89.8 89.7 91.4 92.3 GNPA 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 NNPA 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 ROE 13.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 ROA 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Sources of Funds Capital 385.2 385.2 385.2 385.2 ESOPS 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 Reserves and Surplus 11889.9 13528.3 15464.4 17835.1 Networth 12283.5 13921.9 15858.1 18228.8 Deposits 59072.3 71540.7 86712.8 106477.7 Borrowings 12895.6 14386.9 16807.4 19666.3 Other Liabilities & Provisions 3333.8 3536.0 3712.8 3898.5 Total 87585.2 103385.5 123091.1 148271.3 Applications of Funds Fixed Assets 1106.9 1110.1 1171.7 1243.9 Investments 25484.5 27835.0 31496.3 35980.6 Advances 53027.5 64175.0 79248.5 98233.2 Other Assets 1972.3 3223.9 2517.8 2164.2 Cash with RBI & call money 5979.9 7041.5 8656.8 10649.5 Total 87571.1 103385.5 123091.1 148271.3 Growth ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY16E Total assets 4.6 18.1 19.1 20.5 Advances 9.4 21.0 23.5 24.0 Deposits 15.8 21.1 21.2 22.8 Total Income 10.5 10.5 17.5 17.9 Net interest income 16.0 11.0 20.7 18.5 Operating expenses 15.1 21.0 11.7 13.1 Operating profit 30.7 6.4 25.5 20.7 Net profit 10.4 17.1 18.1 20.1 Book value 29.9 13.3 13.9 15.0 EPS 7.0 17.1 18.1 20.1. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 13

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Banks) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E Bank of India (BANIND) 301 317 Buy 17,978 42 46 55 7.1 6.5 5.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 10 10 11 Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) 1,125 1,250 Buy 47,399 105 136 160 10.7 8.3 7.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 13 15 16 Dena Bank (DENBAN) 60 60 Hold 3,219 10 8 12 5.8 7.6 5.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 9 6 8 Punjab National Bank (PUNBAN) 216 279 Buy 7,630 18 21 25 11.7 10.4 8.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 10 10 11 State Bank of India (STABAN) 326 374 Buy 2,43,234 15 18 21 22.3 17.8 15.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 10 11 12 Syndicate Bank (SYNBN) 128 141 Hold 7,728 27 25 32 4.7 5.1 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 15 13 15 Axis Bank (UTIBAN) 548 590 Buy 1,29,146 26 30 35 20.7 18.0 15.5 3.5 3.0 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 17 17 17 City Union Bank (CITUNI) 96 100 Hold 4,628 6 7 9 14.9 14.4 11.1 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.6 19 17 17 DCB Bank (DCB) 116 140 Buy 3,015 6 6 8 19.3 18.1 15.0 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 15 14 13 Federal Bank (FEDBAN) 143 164 Buy 12,249 10 12 14 14.6 12.1 10.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 13 14 15 HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 1,024 1,036 Hold 2,44,510 35 41 50 29.0 24.8 20.3 5.8 4.3 3.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 21 20 19 IndusInd Bank (INDBA) 847 925 Buy 44,366 27 33 41 31.6 25.4 20.4 5.0 4.3 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 17 18 19 Jammu & Kashmir Bank(JAMKAS) 156 152 Hold 7,582 24 18 28 6.4 8.7 5.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.4 22 14 19 Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) 1,391 1,505 Hold 1,06,616 20 23 27 71.3 60.9 51.6 9.0 7.9 7.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 14 13 14 South Indian Bank (SOUIN0) 29 29 Hold 3,845 4 4 4 7.6 7.7 7.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 17 14 15 Yes Bank (YESBAN) 854 890 Buy 35,538 45 48 63 19.0 17.7 13.5 4.3 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 25 21 20 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 14

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 15

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vasant Lohiya, CA and Sheetal Ashar, CA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 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ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 16