Macro Briefing A monthly review of the economy and markets July 20 17000 US Dow Jones Industrial Average 00 EUROPE FTSE Eurofirst 300 Index 11500 JAPAN Topix Index 700 ASIA ex- JAPAN MSCI AC Asia ex-japan 000 00 7000 700 6500 300 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Data as of July 20 1.00 4.11 000-3.46 GDP (2Q) Rating ^ US 2.20 1.70 6/ 0.25 /0 - Aaa AA+u Eurozone 0.00 2.40 6/ 1.50 7/ -2.3 - - Japan 2.0-0.20 6/ 0. /0 1.62 Aa3 AA-u 500 2.22 Growth remains muted as seen in the 2Q 1.5% annualised rate, versus 1Q s 2.0%. But another major stimulus is unlikely given the better labor and retail sales data and stabilising housing market Despite fears of declining profit levels, second quarter corporate earnings have been strong; nearly two-thirds of companies listed on S&P 500 beat forecasts Healthy corporate fundamentals and attractive valuations will continue to underpin US equities in the near term The region shrank by 0.2% in the 2Q following flat growth in the 1Q. The outlook remains gloomy against a backdrop of budget cuts and rising sovereign debt Expectations that the European Central Bank will kick in with an aggressive policy response soon have become stronger, providing some support for markets. Shortterm fixes are not in the best Despite the headwinds, selective value can be found; Germany and Italy stand out on this measure External weakness caused 2Q GDP to dip to a 1.4% annual rate, way down from 1Q s 5.5%. Exports geared manufacturers have borne the brunt Japanese equities are trading at very attractive valuations. History shows that low company valuations tend to rise back to their longer term average, and we believe this will drive future equity performance in Japan Market sentiment and pricing will hpwever continue to be driven by the shorter term news flow from Europe and US Most markets closed higher in July for a second consecutive month. Shares ended firmer on expectations the U.S. and China will implement progrowth measures China, Korea and Philippines lowered rates to bolster growth but India kept policy rates constant as inflationary pressures have yet to ease Among all, Chinese equities stand out as valuations remain attractive versus history and the region Source : Eastspring Investments(Singapore) Limited and Bloomberg as of July 20. Data shown in the graphs extracted from Bloomberg in local currency terms. Note: MoM refers to month-on-month, YoY refers to year-on-year. # based on latest available data. US Federal Funds Target Rate, Europe ECB Marginal, Japan BOJ Target Rate of Unsecured Overnight Call Rate. ^Refers to Foreign Currency Long Term Debt. * u denotes that the rating is unsolicited (refers to S&P s website for more details).
400 4000 3200 AUSTRALIA ASX - FTSE All-Share Index 4.26 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan- Apr- Jul- 3200 2400 00 CHINA Shanghai Composite Index -5.47 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- 24600 20300 000 HONG KONG Hang Seng Index 1.3 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- 25000 17500 000 INDIA BSE India Sensex 30 Index -1.11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Data as of July 20 GDP (2Q) Rating ^ Australia 4.30 1.20 6/ 3.50 6/ 3.35 Aaa AAAu China 7.60 2.20 6/ 6.00 7/ -0.1 Aa3 AA- Hong Kong 0.40 3.70 6/ 5.00 11/0 0.04 Aa1 AAA India 5.30 7.25 6/.00 4/ 0.3 Baa3 BBB-u Australian equity market rallied strongly ahead of the August reporting season as investors sought yield in defensive stocks Domestic economic data was less positive in July (following a strong June) with weakness in labour market indicators and housing finance House prices unexpectedly rose in the three months through June, ending five straight quarters of declines, as lower interest rates lured buyers Consumer and producer prices eased more than expected in June, signaling likelihood of more growth-supporting policy moves from Beijing The central bank cut benchmark interest rates in July, the second reduction in a month, in a bid to bolster growth China's expansion cooled to the slowest pace in three years in the second quarter, expanding 7.6% from a year earlier, a result that matched expectations Equity market in Hong Kong closed higher in tandem with Chinese shares while economic numbers did little to bolster the market Financial Secretary John Tsang said on July 7 that Hong Kong might revise its 20 economic forecast downwards in August The Hong Kong government announced supportive measures on home ownership instead of restrictive measures to curb the rising property prices to gain popularity Negative sentiment following some earnings disappointment weighed on Indian equities in July The central bank said inflation remains ``well above its comfort zone and that lowering policy rates will only aggravate inflationary impulses without necessarily stimulating growth The Reserve Bank of India kept policy rates unchanged in July for a second consecutive meeting but cut the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) Source : Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and Bloomberg as of July 20. Data shown in the graphs extracted from Bloomberg in local currency terms. Note: MoM refers to month-on-month, YoY refers to year-on-year. # # based on latest available data. Australia - RBA Daily Cash Rate Target, China 1 Year Best Lending Rate, Hong Kong - Prime Rate HSBC, India RBI REPO Cutoff Yield, ^ Refers to Foreign Currency Long Term Debt. * u denotes that the rating is unsolicited (refers to S&P s website for more details).
INDONESIA Jakarta Composite Index Indonesia s inflation accelerated for a second month in July, mainly due higher food costs. The International Monetary Fund expects Indonesia's GDP to grow 6.1% in 20 and inflation to reach 5% by year end Bank Indonesia mentioned in its statement that it will continue to take measures to manage adequate liquidity in the foreign exchange market and encourage development of foreign currency monetary instruments KOREA Kospi Index 5000 2600 1700 5200 MoM Chg Chg %% 3500 1700 50 3700 4.72 1.51 2.03 2.03 1.17 2000 00 00 2200 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Data as of July 20 GDP (2Q) Rating ^ Indonesia 6.37 4.56 7/ 5.75 2/ -0.46 Baa3 BB+ Korea 2.40 1.50 7/ 3.00 7/ 1.4 A1 A Malaysia 4.70 1.60 6/ 3.00 2/0 1.1 A3 A- Philippines 6.40 3.20 7/ 3.75 7/ 0.6 Ba2 BB+ Investors were disappointed by Samsung Electronics' 2Q preliminary numbers and the labor union issues surrounding Hyundai and Kia cast a pall on the market Bank of Korea surprisingly cut rates by 25 basis points mid month after holding it steady for the last months. But the effect was rather muted due to the lagging sentiment, Macro data showed continued pressure on the global recovery; Korea s July export came in slower than consensus estimates MALAYSIA FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI eased for the eighth consecutive month in May to its lowest in almost two years, giving the government more room to hold interest rates Malaysia s Prime Minister Najib Razak announced a payout for civil servants and retired government workers, ahead of the expected general election next year, drawing flak from opposition lawmakers Macro numbers released in July were generally positive PHILIPPINES Philippines Composite Index The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut both the policy repo and reverse repo rates by 25bp to 5.75% and 3.75%, respectively Standard & Poor s raised the credit rating of the Philippines to BB+ in July, citing easing fiscal vulnerability due to debt reduction Exports continued to recover in May, posting the highest growth in 17 months as outbound shipments of semiconductors returned to positive territory Source : Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and Bloomberg as of July 20. Data shown in the graphs extracted from Bloomberg in local currency terms. Note: MoM refers to month-on-month, YoY refers to year-on-year. # based on latest available data. Indonesia BI Reference Interest Rate, Korea - Target Overnight Call Rate Daily, Malaysia Overnight Policy Rate, Philippines Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement RRP Rate. ^ Refers to Foreign Currency Long Term Debt. * u denotes that the rating is unsolicited (refers to S&P s website for more details).
3300 2750 2200 SINGAPORE FTSE Strait Times Index 5.4 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- 000 7500 5000 TAIWAN Taiwan Taiex Index -0.35 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- 00 00 500 THAILAND Stock Exchange of Thai Index 2.32 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar- Jul- Data as of July 20 GDP (2Q) Rating ^ Singapore 2.00 5.30 6/ 5.3 1/0 2.02 Aaa AAAu Taiwan -0. 2.46 7/ 1. 6/11-0.36 Aa3 AA-u Thailand 0.30 2.73 7/ 3.00 1/ 0.4 Baa1 BBB+ Singapore s equity market rose on renewed optimism on the global policy front. The focus was on yield-themed stocks The city-state s GDP rose 1.% in the second quarter from a year earlier On the property front, the housing market is showing positive signs that it is moving towards a stable and more sustainable path but that the government remains ready ``to revise and enhance its policy if the situation demands Trading was volatile in July and the index rose after Taiwan's Parliament approved a plan paving the way for the introduction of a capital-gains tax on Taiwanese securities Weaker-than-expected 2Q earnings and 3Q guidance from US tech names weighed on Taiwanese stocks such as TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE and SPIL Taiwan's economy unexpectedly shrank in the 2Q from a year earlier as exports and consumption sagged The Bank of Thailand kept its key interest rate unchanged for a fourth time in July after noting that inflationary pressures have moderated and projected inflation was within its target range The central bank cut GDP growth forecast for the year to 5.7% from 6% as the global slowdown has affected exports Imports rose 5.0% in June from a year earlier, leading to a trade surplus of $1.64 billion for the month from a surplus of $574 million in May Source : Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and Bloomberg as of July 20. Data shown in the graphs extracted from Bloomberg in local currency terms. Note: MoM refers to month-on-month, YoY refers to year-on-year. # based on latest available data. Singapore Prime Lending Rate, Taiwan Central Bank of China Taiwan Discount Rate Daily, Thailand - BOT Repurchase Market Rates 1 Day Official Rates. ^ Refers to Foreign Currency Long Term Debt. * u denotes that the rating is unsolicited (refers to S&P s website for more details).
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- % 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 %.00.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 Interest Rates Trend 1 % 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 GDP % 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 US Europe Japan Australia Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Eurozone US Hong Kong Taiwan Japan GDP % 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 China India Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Consensus 20 GDP Forecasts 2 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Singapore South Korea Australia Malaysia Philippines Korea Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore % GDP.5.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Thailand Indonesia India Asia ex Japan China -month forward profit forecasts (1 month change) 3 Japan Europe Asia ex Japan US Singapore Malaysia Philippines Hong Kong India Australia Korea China Indonesia Thailand Taiwan -0. -0.6-0.4-0.2 0 0.2-2 -1.5-1 -0.5 0 0.5 Source : Eastspring Investments(Singapore) Limited and Bloomberg as of July 20. 1 US Federal Funds Target Rate, Europe ECB Marginal, Japan BOJ Target Rate of Unsecured Overnight Call Rate. Australia - RBA Daily Cash Rate Target, China 1 Year Best Lending Rate, Hong Kong - Prime Rate HSBC, India RBI REPO Cutoff Yield, Korea - Target Overnight Call Rate Daily, Malaysia Overnight Policy Rate, Philippines Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement RRP Rate. Singapore Prime Lending Rate, Taiwan Central Bank of China Taiwan Discount Rate Daily, Thailand - BOT Repurchase Market Rates 1 Day Official Rates. 2 Consensus Forecasts, Jul 20. 3 IBES MSCI from Datastream as at 31 July 20. The forecasts may change at any time and may not the final outcome.
Valuation - -months Forward P/E (x) 4 1 Australia 2 25 21 China 25 23 21 1 India 1 Indonesia 6 17 5 17 15 11 7 6 4 23 21 1 17 15 11 Hong Kong 6 Korea 1 Malaysia 20 1 Philippines 7 4 1 Singapore 15 Thailand 32 2 Taiwan 11 24 20 7 5 Source: 4 IBES MSCI from Datastream as of 31 July 20. Note: The forward price earnings multiple shown above is calculated on an -month rolling basis. The horizontal lines represent the average (the middle line) and one standard deviation either side of this average for the period shown. The forecasts may change at any time and may not the final outcome.
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