Turkey Economic Outlook 1 st Quarter 2018 BBVA Research January 2018
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Key messages 1. The global demand continues to improve with better forecasts for the US, China and the Eurozone, while the policy normalization of global central banks is ongoing 2. The policy impulse and the resilience of the economy pushed the Turkish economy to strong growth dynamics. We expect GDP growth to reach 7% in 2017 and moderate towards 4.5% this year 3. The labor market is finally benefiting from strong growth while the degree of slack in the economy is dying out 4. Inflation will remain high during most of the year on inertia, robust domestic demand and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation. It will moderate to 9% at the end of 2018 5. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) will maintain the tight stance waiting for clearer signs of disinflation and expectations to ease. The fiscal policy will remain accommodative in 2018 6. Current account deficit should be monitored as it is already above 5% of GDP and the pick up in investment and the new oil prices scenario pose some upward risks
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 GLOBAL Global growth confirmed and short-terms risks moderated
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Global growth consolidates & monetary policy normalization is ongoing 01 Projections for the U.S., China and Eurozone improve There is less uncertainty in the short run 02 More positive perspectives for emerging economies Better global demand and higher commodity prices 03 Greater caution in financial markets Expectations of less liquidity might reduce flows to emerging economies 04 Central Banks continue progressing towards normalization Motifs to withdraw stimulus are materializing in the midst of a contained core inflation 05 Global risks Less significant in the short run; without changes in medium to long run 4
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Robust and sustained global growth World GDP growth (Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ) 1.2 1.0 0.8 The global economy continues to grow, supported by the recovery of the industrial sector Confidence indicators continue to improve, and anticipate the outlook will continue to be positive Private consumption keeps sustaining growth in advanced economies and gains momentum in emerging economies 0.6 0.4 CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% Point Estimates Period average Source: BBVA Research 5
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 with a broad-based revision UNITED STATES EURO ZONE 2018 2.6 2019 2.5 2018 2.2 2019 1.8 CHINA MEXICO 2018 2.0 2019 2.2 2018 4.5 2019 4.3 2018 6.3 2019 6.0 SOUTH AMERICA WORLD 2018 1.6 2019 2.6 2017 3.8 2018 3.8 Up TURKEY Unchanged Down Source: BBVA Research 6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 A weaker Phillips Curve but still something to monitor OECD: Production gap and inflation (% of potential GDP, % YoY) 6 4 2 0-2 Reduction in the economies output gap, but with room to grow without strong inflationary pressures Less price reaction to the increase in activity, for several reasons: Globalisation Increased flexibility in the labour market Low inflationary expectations Reduced productivity growth -4-6 The increase in the price of oil will push up inflation in the short term, facilitating central banks to move towards normalisation in developed economies Output gap Inflation 7
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 A better outlook for emerging economies but also for oil prices Price of oil (Dollars per barrel,%) 61.5 18% 65.9 21.8% The increase in oil prices reflects a greater global demand, which would account for 60% of such increase But this is also due to supply factors, linked to geopolitical risks and the correction of inventories Positive and significant impact on emerging economies that produce raw materials 64.1 However, we still expect prices to converge to $60 per barrel in the medium term, due to increased competition and structural changes in the energy sector -2.8% 4Q17 2018 2019 Variation over previous period Dollars per barrel Source: BBVA Research 8
Easing Tightening Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Withdrawal of non-conventional monetary policy measures is ongoing Pre-crisis Crisis Normalization Hike in interest rates Reinvestment of maturities Interest rate rises Partial reinvestment Reduction of purchasing of bonds Fed BoJ ECB 9
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Monetary policy normalization: accelerated in the case of the Fed, gradual in the case of the ECB FED Tightening cycle and reduction of the balance in progress Estimated rise of 75pbs in 2018 to 2.25% and reduction of the balance by 500,000 million dollars ECB QE reduction, but extension until September 2018 No rate hikes are expected until 2019 Focus: gain room for manoeuvre Focus: avoid sudden acceleration of long-term rates Elements of uncertainty: Politics: changes in government ministries (Fed, ECB) Macro : possible surprises in inflation Markets: Long-term rates and slope of the curve 10
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Cautiousness in financial markets, with gradual moderation in flows to emerging economies Appetite for risk indicator 1 st Factor (global), analysis of capital flows EPFR 2 1.5 "Risk-on mood" Pre-Trump Acceleration in the normalization process 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5 "Risk-off mood" Post-Trump -2 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Source: BBVA Research, EPFR 11
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Turkish Economy Strong Growth and Inflation 12
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The Turkish economy during the last quarter 01 Exchange rate depreciated on Global & Geopolitical woes High exchange rate volatility at the end of the year 04 Tight Monetary Policy The Central Bank tightened monetary policy with words & deeds 02 Strong growth and declining unemployment Labor market is finally benefiting from strong growth 05 Fiscal Policy loosened but lower than expected Strong nominal growth supported revenues 03 Inflation remain high on both supply and demand factors High inflation will recede but remain at high levels 06 The current account deficit should be monitored Again above the 5% mark on investment recovery, oil prices and gold imports 13
Jan-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The volatility of Turkish Lira increased on geopolitical factors while global factors started to be more supportive Lira Exchange Rate : Global & Local (contribution to % weekly change from different factors ) Turkish Lira vs USD (TRL/USD) 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 FX Depreciation 4.05 3.95 3.85 3.75-0.01-0.02-0.03 FX Appreciation 3.65 3.55-0.04 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Global Component % Local Component % TL Weekly Change % 3.45 3.35 Geopolitical Events Stress and Reversals 14
Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Economic growth skyrocketed in 3Q thanks to low base impact and working day adjustments but remained promising in 4Q, consistent with our 7% GDP growth forecast for 2017 Activity Indicators (%YoY 3MA) Turkey: GDP Monthly Indicator (% YoY mov. avg. 3m) 2017 M ean May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Industrial Production 3.9 4.2 2.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 8.6 9.6 Non-metal Mineral 1.7 2.7 0.9 8.2 8.4 14.2 7.7 8.7 Electricity Production 4.5 6.6 4.5 8.4 8.5 12.2 9.5 9.7 6.5 Auto Sales 3.5-10.3-9.7 2.4 7.1 14.6 7.3-1.4 Tourist Arriv als 2.1 26.5 36.5 45.5 45.3 38.2 31.0 Number of Employ ed 5.5 16.1 10.5 6.1 1.5-0.8-5.1 Number of Unemploy ed 3.5 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.8 Auto Imports 5.1-13.9-14.4-6.7-3.4 3.1-0.9-8.4 Auto Exports 9.2 32.4 24.0 23.2 9.8 5.9 33.3 28.9 Financial Conditions 75.4 30.6 35.6 40.5 35.4 38.9 26.1 10.0 15.2 13-week Credit Growth 17.8 37.2 29.2 20.1 17.6 14.5 14.5 12.0 13.4 Retail Sales 3.6 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.9 Real Sector Conf idence 106.1 104.8 108.8 107.7 110.2 111.2 112.2 109.8 109.2 MICA Forecast 11.8% 9.1% 6.7% GDP YoY 5.4% 11.1% Contraction Slow-down Growth Boom 14% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5% 4% 2% 1% -1% -3% -4% BBVA-GB GDP Growth (Monthly) GDP Growth October : 11.8% (100% of inf.) GDP growth nowcast November : 9.1% (90% of inf.) December : 6.7% (26% of inf.) Source: BBVA Research Nowcasting Model 15
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The Credit Guarantee Fund (CGF) has proved to be an efficient counter-cyclical tool, but not a free lunch The Effects of a Credit Supply Shock to the Economy* (Shock of CGF, 5 times standard deviation in loans shock. Variables in 3-Month Moving Average) The CGF had a positive contribution to growth between 1.0-1.5pp in 2017 with a somewhat delayed impact on inflation once the domestic demand side of the economy reacted There is some uncertainty about the magnitude of the negative/positive base effect in 2018 depending on the allocation of remaining funds, the roll-over of last year s program or the existence of new programs The economic outlook will also matter. Household and Corporate demand and Banks willingness to supply also depend on the macroeconomic conditions surrounding the program * See the detailed analysis in the following link Source: BBVA Research 16
Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Strong domestic demand has finally benefited the labor market while the amount of slack has now disappeared Unemployment Rate (SA, %) Output Gap Models and Core inflation ( Ouput gap % of GDP (left) and Core Inflation B YoY,right) 12% 24% 5 4 3 14 12 11% 10% 21% 18% 2 1 0-1 -2 10 8 6 4 9% 15% -3-4 -5 2 0 Unemployment Rate Youth people unemployment rate-rhs Median 6 Models* 1 stdev range BBVA MPM Model Output Gap Core Inflation (RHS) Central Bank of Turkey November IR Output Gap * Output gap one standard deviation range includes: Linear Model, Capacity Utilization, Hodrick-Prescott Filter (1600), Credit Neutral (Borio et al), Multivariate Filter Model, Open Economy NK Model. Source: Turkstat and BBVA Research Source: BBVA Research & CBRT Inflation Report 17
Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Favorable base effects on food will help inflation fall sharply in the short term but it will navigate on high levels due to still high domestic demand, inertia and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation CPI Inflation & Its Components (YoY) 17% Inflation Expectations (YoY) 0.095 14% 0.09 11% 0.085 8% 0.08 5% 0.075 2% 0.07-1% 0.065-4% 0.06 Core Food Energy CPI 12-month ahead 24-month ahead Source: Turkstat and BBVA Research 18
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The CBRT tightened monetary policy by 75 bps at the end of 2017 with additional «verbal tightening» during the last meetings CBRT Interest Rates (Annual Level, %) CBRT Monetary Policy Statement Sentiment (Standardized, estimated through Big Data LDA Techniques from Minutes & Statements) 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Tight Monetary Policy Sentiment 5% -3-4 Loose Monetary Policy Sentiment CBRT One-Week Repo CBRT LLW CBRT Cost of Funding Source: CBRT and BBVA Research 19
Dec.12 Dec.13 Dec.14 Dec.15 Dec.16 Dec.17 Dec.18 Dec.19 Dec.20 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Strong nominal growth boosted revenues supporting a better than expected Central Government deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2017 Budget and Primary Balance (% GDP, *4Q GDP data is a forecast) 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0-0.005-0.01-0.015-0.02 We expect some deterioration in fiscal balance on the back of lower nominal revenues and some upward pressures on expenditures Better than expected budget deficit in 2017 opens the door for more fiscal consolidation However, we think that the Government will stick to the programmed Medium Term Plan given some pressures on some expenditure items (i.e defence and security) -0.025 Budget Balance Government MTP Forecasts Primary Balance BBVA Research Forecasts Source:Turkstat, Ministry of Finance 20
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Safe Low High Intense Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The security climate has improved markedly allowing tourism arrivals and revenues to recover Turkey: Conflict Index (Conflict News op Total News in News Media) Number of Tourists and Tourism Revenues (3MA, YoY) 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% -45% Foreign Tourist Arrivals Tourism Revenue Source: BBVA Research,, GDELT, Turkstat 21
Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Strong domestic demand, higher energy prices and gold imports led current account deficit to rise above 5% of GDP again Current Account Balance (12M sum, bn USD) 30.0 Current Account Financing (12M sum, % GDP) 14% 12% 10.0 10% -10.0 8% -30.0 6% -50.0 4% 2% -70.0 0% -90.0-2% CAB CAB Exc. Energy & Gold Net Portfolio Flows Net FDI Net Other Investment CAD Source: CBRT, Turkstat and BBVA Research 22
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Turkey Outlook The Base Scenario and The Balance of Risks 23
Dec.14 Apr.15 Aug.15 Dec.15 Apr.16 Aug.16 Dec.16 Apr.17 Aug.17 Dec.17 Apr.18 Aug.18 Dec.18 Apr.19 Aug.19 Dec.19 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Strong growth set to moderate but with balanced risks GDP Forecasts (YoY) 12% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 0% -2% -3% Economic growth will moderate as last year s stimuli fade away. We expect GDP to grow 4.5% in 2018 after the extraordinary growth rate of 2017 at 7.0% A positive outlook of the global economy, a sustained recovery of non-residential private investment and a new round of policy stimulus pose risks on the upside A more aggressive than expected Global Monetary Policy normalization and Geopolitical risks pose risks on the downside Source: Turkstat & Garanti MPM Model 24
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Inflation will remain high but the worst is over in our base case scenario Inflation Forecasts (3MA YoY baseline scenario) 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% CBRT target Inflation will start to moderate soon (1Q) but will remain near 10% until 4Q before ending the year at 9.0% Risks are balanced. Exchange rate depreciation lower than expected and structural measures to reduce food price volatility may result in positive surprises Higher oil prices, strong inertia and new exchange rate shocks from global & geopolitical factors may pose upside risks Source: Turkstat & Garanti MPM Model 25
Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 The CBRT will maintain the current policy unless a new shock arises. Exchange rate will depreciate more moderately. Monetary Policy Rate Forecasts (% Average Funfing Cost) Exchange Rate Forecasts (USDTRY Level baseline scenario) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 5.2 5 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 Elements of uncertainty: Global: Normalization of Monetary Policies (Fed, ECB) Macro : Domestic demand pressures and inflation risks Risk Premia: Geopolitical risks 26
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 Baseline forecasts 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f GDP Growth (%) 3.2% 7.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Private consumption (%) 3.7% 6.2% 4.0% 3.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.3% Public consumption (%) 9.5% 2.2% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Gross fixed investment (%) 2.2% 7.9% 3.0% 4.6% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% Exports (%) -1.9% 11.8% 8.4% 6.5% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% Imports (%) 3.7% 6.1% 5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% Inflation (end of period. YoY %) 8.5% 11.9%* 9.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% Exchange Rate vs US dollar (end of period) 3.52 3.77* 4.15 4.45 4.65 4.84 5.04 5.25 Exchange Rate vs US dollar (average) 3.02 3.65* 4.01 4.31 4.56 4.75 4.95 5.16 Official Interest Rate (end of period) 8.3% 12.8%* 12.8% 10.0% 8.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Official Interest Rate (average) 8.4% 11.5%* 12.8% 11.6% 8.6% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.8% -5.5% -5.6% -5.6% -5.4% -5.4% -5.4% -5.5% Central Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) -1.1% -1.5% -2.2% -2.2% -2.1% -1.8% -1.6% -1.4% EU Defined Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.3% 29.3% 30.9% 31.6% 31.7% 31.4% 31.1% 31.0% F= forecast. (*) realization. 27
Turkey Economic Outlook 1Q 2018 This report has been produced by the Turkey, China and Geopolitics Unit Chief Economist for Turkey, China and Geopolitics Unit Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com Seda Güler Mert sedagul@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 64 Adem İleri ademil@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 63 Yiğit Engin yigite@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 60 Serkan Kocabas serkankoc@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 57 Ali Batuhan Barlas alibarl@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 67 Deniz Ergun denizerg@garanti.com.tr +90 212 318 10 59 With the collaboration of Global Economic Situations Miguel Jiménez mjimenezg@bbva.com BBVA-Research Jorge Sicilia Serrano Macroeconomic analysis Rafael Doménech r.domenech@bbva.com Global Economic Situations Miguel Jiménez mjimenezg@bbva.com Global Financial Markets Sonsoles Castillo s.castillo@bbva.com Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis Julián Cubero juan.cubero@bbva.com Innovation and Processes Oscar de las Peñas oscar.delaspenas@bbva.com Financial Systems and Regulation Santiago Fernández de Lis sfernandezdelis@bbva.com International Coordination Olga Cerqueira Olga.cerqueira@bbva.com Digital Regulation Álvaro Martín alvaro.martin@bbva.com Regulation Financial Systems Ana Rubio arubiog@bbva.com Financial Inclusion Spain and Portugal Miguel Cardoso miguel.cardoso@bbva.com United States Nathaniel Karp Nathaniel.karp@bbva.com Mexico Carlos Serrano carlos.serranoh@bbva.com Middle East, Asia and Geopolitical Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com Turkey Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com Asia Le Xia Le.xia@bbva.com South America Juan Manuel Ruiz juan.ruiz@bbva.com Argentina Gloria Sorensen gsorensen@bbva.com Chile Jorge Selaive jselaive@bbva.com Colombia Juana Téllez juana.tellez@bbva.com Peru Hugo Perea hperea@bbva.com Venezuela Julio Pineda juliocesar.pineda@bbva.com FOR ANY QUERIES PLEASE APPLY TO: BBVA Research: Calle Azul, 4. Edificio de la Vela - 4ª y 5ª plantas. 28050 Madrid, Spain. Tel.+34 91 374 60 00 and +34 91 537 70 00 / Fax+34 91 374 30 25 - bbvaresearch@bbva.com www.bbvaresearch.com
Turkey Economic Outlook 1 st Quarter 2018 BBVA Research January 2018