INVESTING IN DISASTER RESILIENCE: RISK TRANSFER THROUGH FLOOD INSURANCE IN SOUTH ASIA GIRIRAJ AMARNATH International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Photo: World Bank Workshop on Addressing Disaster Risks Specific to South and South-West Asia 30-31 October 2017, Kathmandu, Nepal
Human Cost of Natural Disasters and Its Impacts PK 50m Global Assessment by Natural Disasters IND 819m BGL 127m Number of disasters and affected people reported per country (1994-2013)
The Problem Extreme weather events are increasing in their frequency and intensity Economic losses from weather-related disasters in developing countries accounts for 10 billion over the past decade Non-economic losses such as the lost of lives, livelihoods and ecosystems further aggravate the situation => the Protection Gap in India is significantly higher than global average
There is currently an active international dialogue on establishing a regional initiative for disaster risk financing (DRF) for Asia. The topic of an Asian disaster risk financing facility has been raised in various forums, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia-Pacic Economic Cooperation (APEC), the G-7 InsuResilience Initiative, and the Vulnerable 20 Group of Ministers of Finance (V20), World Bank- GFDRR and others Source: World Bank
Key challenges Inability to put in place pre-requisites for an efficient catastrophe risk financing instruments Undeveloped insurance sector Inadequacy in local insurance laws with respect to post-disaster damages Lack of risk awareness at the government level and among public Perceived low probability of disaster, hence insurance is of low priority Lack of understanding on insurance by locals; Low awareness of insurance benefits vis-à-vis costs (premium) Lack of technical knowledge and experience Build complex insurance models and carry out loss assessment Adapt to climate change effects Availability and Sharing of various data in risk transfer mechanism Source: ADB
Protection gap Closing the Protection Gap Various Options Which risk? Who carries the risk? Risk transfer solution Public physical assets Emergency response costs gap Governments Macro Risk transfer solutions for (sub)sovereigns to cover their direct or indirect costs Foregone revenue Uninsured private assets Businesses, homeowners, farmers Pooling Insurance schemes and pools to increase insurance penetration Livelihood assistance Individuals Micro Simplified products distributed via aggregators such as MFIs, NGOs, and corporates 6
Regional approach to promote Disaster Risk Management, including risk transfer mechanisms Residual risks(after risk reduction) call for risk transfer approach to build resilience Risk transfer is one way of dealing with these residual risks: Climate risk insurance scheme thus form an important part of comprehensive climate risk management approach Near-term climate forecast Climate Change forecasts Postdisaster monitoring / forecasting D I S A S T E R El-Nino and La-Nina monitoring Seasonal forecasts -Rainfall -Temperature -Cyclones Intra-seasonal forecasts Wet/Dry Spells Heat/Cold waves Weather forecasts Hurricanes, blizzards, windstorms, other extreme weather Monitoring Flash floods, Hail Storms and tornadoes
Index Based Flood Insurance (IBFI)
IBFI CONCEPT Rainfall Remote Sensing Data for Inundated Crop Area Water level Flood Extent Flood Duration Flood hazard module Insurance agencies Farmers Flood index design Insurance payout Structure/Scheme Government IF SCALED UP, from 50,000 to 1 million farmers would be benefitted by the scheme Flood loss module Development banks Crop Yield loss Economic loss Crop Damage
Discharge, daily average (m 3 /sec) Flood Modeling: Depth and Duration Parameters 3000 2500 Hydrograph gauged at Benibad station in the Bagmathi Basin 2000 1500 1000 500 0 01-Jan-01 JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASON 01-Jan-02 01-Jan-03 01-Jan-04 01-Jan-05 01-Jan-06 01-Jan-07 01-Jan-08 01-Jan-09 01-Jan-10 01-Jan-11 01-Jan-12 01-Jan-13 01-Jan-14 01-Jan-15 D 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 July 2001 August 2008 August 2014 Landsat image on 15/09/2001* Flood extent based on Landsat on 15/09/2001* HEC-RAS model calculation result on 15/09/2001 RRI model calculation result on 15/09/2001 Landsat image on 02/09/2008* Flood extent based on Landsat on 02/09/2008* HEC-RAS model calculation result on 02/09/2008 RRI model calculation result on 02/09/2008 Landsat image on 27/09/2014* Flood extent based on Landsat on 27/09/2014* HEC-RAS model calculation result on 27/09/2014 RRI model calculation result on 27/09/2014 *For satellite image data, because of limitation due to cloud cover, results on the most recent day to the flood peaking were shown here.
Parameters of a typical product
Sample Historical as if Payout
Institutional platform is crucial for the success District/Villages State/Bihar Int(National) Insurance Industry Panchayat Representatives, Community leaders, individual farmers both men/women for active IBFI participation DDM, BSDMA, Cooperative, Agriculture, Water Resources for Policy aspects and Scaling up Secretary MoA&FW for possible integration in PMFBY scheme and scaling up in other states; UNOOSA/UNSPI DER; UNESCAP to promote improved risk management solutions To participation in index insurance design, active engagement in field evaluation, piloting the IBFI product and regulatory approval and promote with State/Central governments
Building Resilience through Sustainable Development and Disaster Risk Reduction through 2030 Three broad areas that are cross cutting across DRR, DRM, DRF are: 1. Convene an Insurance Network on Sustainable Development - to improve dialogue, stimulate innovation and partnerships, and improve coherence between existing initiatives. 2. Establish a Sustainable Insurance Policy Forum - to scale up policy progress through enhanced cooperation and collaboration between governments. 3. Agree a set of Insurance Development Goals to focus long-term efforts beyond 2015.
Conclusions Awareness raising and risk education: Insurers and government can partner to make available risk data and information systems. Risk pricing: By accurately pricing risk, insurers can incentivise risk reducing decision making. Enabling conditions and regulation of insurance programmes: Through legislation, financial oversight and monitoring, government can provide incentives for insurance to promote risk-reducing activities. Direct financing of risk reduction measures: Insurers can invest directly in risk reduction measures to avoid large compensation claims. Risk reduction as a prerequisite for insurance: As a prerequisite for coverage, insurers can require that policy holders undertake specific disaster risk reduction measures. Disaster risk management (ex-ante + ex-post) are crucial element of sustainable development to reduce disaster losses and enable achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Thank You #Email #Skype a.giriraj@cgiar.org amarnnath.giriraj