Stock Market Indicators: YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 May 11, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents YRI Weekly Leading Index 1-5 May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
YRI Weekly Leading Index 210 Figure 1. S&P 0 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX 4/28 20 1 1 1 S&P 0 Index YRI Weekly Leading Index* 20 2 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 0 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor s. 30 20 10 0 Figure 2. S&P 0 TRANSPORATION INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX 4/28 YRI Weekly Leading Index* S&P 0 Transporation Index 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 300 2 0 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 1 / May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
2 2 230 220 210 1 1 1 YRI Weekly Leading Index Figure 3. S&P 0 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER* 5/5 S&P 0 Index Boom-Bust Barometer 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20 20 2 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 * CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor s. 30 20 Figure 4. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 5/5 Boom-Bust Barometer* Consumer Comfort Index 4/28 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 2 230 220 210 1 1 1 * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. Page 2 / May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
YRI Weekly Leading Index 8 Figure 5. S&P 0 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES 5/11 20 7 S&P 0 Index 20 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index 2 0 5 10 10 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau. 0 300 Figure 6. S&P 0 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS S&P 0 Index Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, four-week moving average, inverted scale) 5/11 5/5 20 20 2 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor s. 0 Page 3 / May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
210 1 Figure 7. YRI Weekly Leading Index S&P 0 FORWARD EARNINGS & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX S&P 0 Forward Earnings* 4/28 1 1 1 YRI Weekly Leading Index** 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus forecast. ** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 2 2 230 220 210 1 1 1 Figure 8. S&P 0 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER (weekly) S&P 0 Forward Earnings* Boom-Bust Barometer** 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5/5 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year. ** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average. Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 4 / May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
YRI Weekly Leading Index 30 Figure 9. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 0 basis) & S&P 0 30 26 5/11 26 YRI Global Growth Barometer* (4.9) 22 S&P 0 Index (2727.7) 22 18 18 14 14 10 10 6 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6 * Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and added. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau. 175 Figure 10. US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE 5/11 20 20 2 125 0 10 10 75 25 S&P 0 Index Brent Crude Oil Price* (dollars per barrel) 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 0 0 0 0 * Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 5 / May 11, 2018 / YRI Weekly Leading Index & S&P 0 www.
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