U.S. Investment Policy Committee Notes May 03, 2017

U.S. Investment Policy Committee Notes May 03, 2017 Economic and Stock Market Outlooks Overall Outlook Even though election outcomes have perplexed many global pollsters, fundamentals and the Fed have fooled fewer forecasters. Today, the FOMC left rates unchanged, as expected by the majority, thereby increasing the likelihood of a June rate hike. In addition, with the S&P 500's Q1 earnings-reporting period largely over, the initial estimate is again on track to be exceeded by the actual growth in EPS, as has occurred in each of the past 20 quarters. Indeed, the final year-on-year quarterly growth in S&P 500 EPS exceeded the beginning-of-quarter estimate by an average 3.5 percentage points. It now appears as if Q1 2017 results will be no exception, as the 3/31 estimate of 9.9%, according to S&P Capital IQ, will now come in closer to 14.0%. Expectations for forward-quarter outcomes are likely contributing to equity optimism. Economic Update Fed funds futures declined on the FOMC statement, and are now pricing in a greater than 90% chance for a tightening at the mid-june policy meeting. There had only been about a 65% to 70% chance of a June tightening before the announcement. The statement, by indicating that the slowing seen in Q1 GDP was likely transitory, supports forecasts for action next month, especially if the economy appears to be bouncing back as projected (Action Economics is forecasting a 3.2% Q2 GDP rate and 3.1% for Q3). Also, the Fed said inflation "has been running close to the Committee's 2% longer-run objective," vs the March statement that inflation was "moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective." We read that small shift to be a hint that price pressures are closing in on their inflation target, thus making a June tightening an even greater likelihood. Fundamental Update With more than 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported Q1 2017 EPS, 73% have exceeded beginning-of-quarter estimates. S&P Capital IQ consensus estimates point to a 14.0% y/y rise in operating results to a new all-time 12-month high of $121.41, eclipsing the prior high of $118.81 set during the second quarter of 2015. Also, 10 sectors are now projected to see year-over-year gains, versus seven at the beginning of the quarter, with financials, industrials and materials expected to report the largest increases. On a side note, on 5/2/17, S&P DJ Indices reported that Apple (AAPL 147*****) increased its quarterly dividend from $0.57 per share to $0.63, representing a 10.5% increase, to $13.22 billion, to become the new largest dividend payer in the world. The increase, if paid this month, would help set a new monthly S&P 500 cash dividend record of $51.6B, vs. the $51.5B set in November 2016. Technical Update The SPX remains poised just below the breakout level at 2400. The bias remains bullish, but the price action seems caught in the middle of an NDX index that is shooting higher and a RUT index that is pulling back. If the SPX can break above 2400, this would open the door for another leg higher in the larger rally. If there's any deeper pullback, there are supports established at 2363, 2348, and 2337. The NDX has continued to push into new high territory at a furious pace. A prolonged and continuing rally rising at this steep slope is highly unlikely and at some point, the NDX will have to pause and correct. Support remains at 5407-5442. The RUT has pulled back to support at 1389-1398, moving counter to the steep upward price action in the NDX. The establishment of a new high by the RUT would solidify the bullish bias. Recommended Moderate Allocation 2 0 % Foreign Eq uities 2 5 % Bonds S&P 500 EPS changes as of 05/03/17 EPS Growth % S&P 500 Sector Q1 2017 Q2 2017e 2016e 2017e Cons Disc 0.5 (0.4) 8.5 6.0 Cons Staples 3.4 5.0 4.3 5.6 Energy (1014.8) 421.8 (77.8) 323.0 Financials 39.4 28.0 15.0 12.6 Health Care 4.7 0.8 7.8 3.7 Industrials 2.8 (4.7) 2.0 5.0 Info Tech 20.3 12.8 4.9 13.2 Materials 19.6 5.3 (1.7) 13.6 Real Estate 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 Telecom Svcs (4.7) 2.9 (0.1) 0.0 Utilities 0.3 (6.3) 6.5 (2.0) S&P 500 14.0 7.8 0.4 11.2 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Targets 4 5 % U.S. Eq uities 1 0 % Cash 12-Month S&P 500:2460 S&P 500 EPS 2016E:$117.69, 17E:$130.70 S&P 500 Revenues 2016E:+2.6%, 17E:+4.9% Real GDP Growth Avg. 2017E:+2.3%, 18E:+2.7% Core PCE Avg. 2017E:1.6%, 18E:1.9% Fed Funds Rate Avg. 2017E:1.06%, 18E:1.88% 10-Year T-Note Avg. 2017E:2.54%, 18E:2.93% Exchange Rate 2017E:93.9, 18E:94.3 WTI/bbl. Avg. 2017E:$51.05, 18E:$51.85 S&P 500 GICS Sector Performance and Recommended Sector Weightings % Change S&P 500 Sector P/E on '17e May YTD 2016 EPS '17e P/E to Proj. 5-Yr. EPS Grth. Sector % Weightings Sector Emphasis 5/02/2017 Over/Under Weight Consumer Discretionary 0.3 10.9 4.3 20.6 1.1 12.5 Marketweight 0.0 Consumer Staples (1.1) 5.4 2.6 20.6 2.2 9.2 Underweight -0.2 Energy (0.7) (10.7) 23.7 29.8 1.4 6.3 Underweight -0.1 Financials 0.5 1.6 20.1 14.1 1.5 14.1 Marketweight 0.0 Health Care 0.5 10.0 (4.4) 16.4 1.5 14.0 Marketweight 0.0 Industrials 0.2 6.0 16.1 18.6 1.8 10.1 Overweight 0.4 Information Technology 1.2 16.2 12.0 18.6 1.4 22.7 Marketweight 0.0 Materials 0.1 6.8 14.1 18.5 1.6 2.8 Overweight 0.1 Real Estate 0.7 3.4 0.0 38.0 4.4 2.9 Underweight -0.1 Telecommunication Services (0.8) (10.0) 17.8 13.2 3.2 2.2 Marketweight 0.0 Utilities (0.4) 5.8 12.2 18.1 3.5 3.2 Underweight -0.1 S&P Composite 1500 0.3 6.5 10.6 18.5 1.5 S&P 500 0.3 6.8 9.5 18.3 1.5 S&P MidCap 400 0.1 4.5 18.7 20.4 2.1 S&P SmallCap 600 0.1 1.7 24.7 22.1 1.7 Sector recommendations are market-cap weighted, influenced by economic,fundamental and technical considerations Technical commentary contributed by i10 Research. Please read the Disclosures from page 2 onwards of this report. 1

Glossary STARS Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research Services, and its predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance. Similarly, we have ranked Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), equity analysts rank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future total return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350 Index or S&P 500 Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. 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The range of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: A+ Highest B Below Average A High B- Lower A- Above Average C Lowest B+ Average D In Reorganization NR Not Ranked EPS Estimates CFRA s earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data provider to CFRA. Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to which some types of data is disclosed by companies. Core Earnings Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings generated from its principal businesses. 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Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPEX - Capital Expenditures CY - Calendar Year DCF - Discounted Cash Flow DDM - Dividend Discount Model EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization EPS - Earnings Per Share EV - Enterprise Value FCF - Free Cash Flow FFO - Funds From Operations FY - Fiscal Year P/E - Price/Earnings P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value PEG Ratio - P/E-to- Growth Ratio PV - Present Value R&D - Research & Development ROCE - Return on Capital Employed ROE - Return on Equity ROI - Return on Investment ROIC - Return on Invested Capital ROA - Return on Assets SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin). 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