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Risk Assessment: Identifying your safety risks Facilitator: Nancy Rockbrune Assistant Director, SMS, IATA Panelists: Jonathan Jasper Cabin Safety Procedures Officer, Virgin Atlantic Airways Johnny Chin Assistant Manager Flight Safety, Singapore Airlines
. Refreshment Break Sponsored by:
Risk Assessment: Identifying Your Safety Risks
Workshop Purpose Provide practical tools and guidance to develop Safety Risk Assessments allowing you to actively manage your safety risks 6
Agenda Understanding Hazards and Risks Identifying Risk Measuring Risk Developing a Safety Risk Assessment (SRA) Common Risk 7
Understanding Hazards and Risks
Understanding Hazards and Risks HAZARD RISK 9
Definitions HAZARD haz ard noun \ˈha-zərd\ : a source of danger RISK risk noun \ˈrisk\ : the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen 10
Definitions Hazard ~ Condition or object with the potential of causing injuries to personnel, damage to equipment or structures, loss of material, or reduction of ability to perform a prescribed function [ICAO] Risk ~ The assessment, expressed in terms of predicted degree of probability and severity, of the consequence(s) of a hazard, taking as reference the worst foreseeable situation [ICAO] 11
Definitions Safety Risk ~ The projected likelihood and severity of the consequences or outcomes of a hazard ICAO SMM Risk Assessment ~ The identification, evaluation, and estimation of the level of risk INDUSTRY Risk Mitigation ~ The process of incorporating defenses or preventive controls to lower the severity and / or likelihood of a hazard s projected consequence ICAO SMM 12
Identifying Risk
Identifying Risk Safety reporting of hazards and occurrences Identify risks Assess risks 14
Data Sources Reactive Proactive Predictive 15
Reporting Systems 16
Safety Reporting Policy 17
Hazard Identification Program Data Collection Data Analysis 18
Hazard Identification Purpose 19
Oxford Dictionary Definition WISE having or showing experience, knowledge, and good judgment sensible or prudent having knowledge in a specified subject (wise to) informal aware of, especially so as to know how to act 20
Measuring Risk
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Measuring Risk You can t manage what you don t measure How do you measure risk? Establish a risk rating (weight) 23
ICAO Risk Model 24
How it works Identify risks Assign probability and severity to each risk Calculate risk rating by combining the two 25
Risk Probability Assess the likelihood that the consequences of hazards will occur during organizational activities Questions that can help determine likelihood Happened previously? Similar equipment? Regular process? How many people following or impacted by process? 26
Probability ICAO SMM 27
Risk Severity Assess the severity of the potential consequence(s) to the identified hazard The extent of harm that may be reasonable to expect All possible consequences related to the hazard taking into account the worst case scenario Can be assessed on a number of consequences Injuries / fatalities (internal / external) Damage to asset (aircraft / equipment / facility) 28
Severity ICAO SMM 29
Risk Rating Probability and Severity combined to calculate the risk rating or score ICAO SMM 30
Risk Models What model(s) do you use or have used? 31
Decisions Required 32
Managing Risk Managing safety is really about managing safety risk How do you manage risk? Avoid Transfer Mitigate Accept 33
Next step of the Process Identify risks Assign probability and severity to each risk Calculate risk rating by combining the two 34
Next step of the Process Identify risks Assign probability and severity to each risk Calculate risk rating by combining the two Use risk matrix to determine actions required 35
Risk Tolerance ICAO SMM 36
Risk Tolerance ICAO SMM 37
Intolerable The risk of the hazard consequence is unacceptable Action is required Avoid cease the activity Transfer outsource activity to other organization obtain insurance coverage Mitigate take measures to reduce exposure of risk (likelihood) take measures to reduce the severity of the hazard consequence 38
Tolerable The risk of the hazard consequence is tolerable Existing controls are in place and effective Continuous monitoring is required Organization may wish to take measures to reduce exposure of risk (likelihood) and / or severity to bring the risk rating to acceptable (green) 39
Acceptable The risk of the hazard consequence is acceptable Risk exposure in negligible Continuous monitoring is required 40
In Summary Risk tolerance unique to each Organization Risk assessments must be conducted with that in mind Must be consistently applied Definitions that reflect common risk thresholds critical Not easy Reproducibility Repeatability Must assess change for its potential to introduce risk 41
Meaning? A process that defines how the organization: Identifies risks to the achievement of the business goals & objectives Measures the significance of each identified risk Determines the most appropriate business response to each risk Facilitates the implementation of the appropriate response Evaluates and reports on how well the chosen responses are carried out 42
Risk Management Process Identify real and potential risks Analyze and prioritize Develop appropriate response and/or controls to threshold risks including costs and triggers Transfer Avoid Mitigate Accept Ongoing monitoring Continuous improvement (refine, expand, etc.) 43
Managing Risk Through information (wisdom) gained try to: Prevent bad things from happening Minimize the effect if something bad does happen Must actively seek out risk and manage it accordingly 44
Risk Management Process 45
Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation Purpose of SMS Dependent on data / information Proactive identification of risks Develop mitigations as necessary 46
Developing an SRA
Safety Risk Assessment ~ Purpose Safety Reviews Initiated by change Ensure safety performance is maintained at acceptable level Identifies the hazards and associated risk for a given scenario Documented decision record with defensible rationale 48
Change Impact existing risk controls Introduce new risk Types of change 49
Samples 50
SRA Exercises
Scenario #1
Scenario #1 Pets in Cabin Airline has a policy allowing small pets in passenger cabin Introduced 2 years ago due to passenger complaints Major competitors allow pets in cabin No regulation preventing it Airline has been getting many complaints from passengers advising they have pet allergies As a result COO has requested Corporate Safety to conduct a review of the policy 53
Research Yes No Domestic A x Service animals only B x Service animals only C Some restrictions apply D E F Not on International flights International G H I J x Service animals only K x Service animals only L M N x 54
Identify Team Corporate Safety Cabin Services Flight Operations Ground Services Check-In Ramp Customer Service Medical Services Legal 55
Pros 56
Pros Appease passengers wishing to travel with their small pets Easy change to action Policy amendment Communication Could be a revenue stream Stay competitive 57
Cons 58
Cons Could negatively impact crew with allergies Could upset passengers with pet allergies Potential noise Potential smell 59
Transform Cons to Risk 60
Transform Cons to Risk Could negatively impact crew with allergies Severe allergic reaction by crew 61
Transform Cons to Risk Could upset passengers with pet allergies 62
Transform Cons to Risk Could upset passengers with pet allergies Severe allergic reaction by passenger(s) 63
Transform Cons to Risk Potential noise 64
Transform Cons to Risk Potential noise Noise from pet 65
Transform Cons to Risk Potential smell 66
Transform Cons to Risk Potential smell Smell from pet 67
Transform Cons to Risk Other 68
Transform Cons to Risk Other Pet escape carrier 69
Identified Risks Severe allergic reaction by crew Severe allergic reaction by passenger(s) Pet escape carrier Noise from pet Smell from pet 70
Evaluate Risks 71
Decision 72
Decision Policy poses no safety risk Controls: Policy that pets are to remain in carrier for duration of flight Carrier must be stowed under seat in front of passenger 73
Scenario #2
Scenario #2 75
Research 76
Team 77
Pros / Cons 78
Identified Risks 79
Risk Matrix ~ Probability ICAO SMM 80
Risk Matrix ~ Severity ICAO SMM 81
Risk Tolerance ICAO SMM 82
Decision? 83
Other Risks
Other Risk Triggers Data??? 85
Common Risk
Risky Behaviour 87
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Worst One 112
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Can t Forget People Employee behaviour is a risk Organization needs to influence the behaviour of people Development and continuous improvement of a safety culture 114
Peer Pressure Just need to focus on a few If you can get a few people to embrace the change, others will follow Will gain momentum as more and more live the new value 115
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In Summary
Decision Making Must remember to not Reinvent the Wheel Need to consider what is in place today and leverage as / if appropriate 118
Keep it Simple Can get caught up in all of the data and information gathered Need to focus on the problems not the solution 119
Thank you!
. Networking Lunch Gauguin Room 12:00 13:00
. Refreshment Break 16:00 16:30